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Sir Donald

Ellis, please provide a synopsis of your current thinking regarding the finalization of the S40A manual and if feasible, your best projected date for release to all members.

Based on previous posts, you have indicated a strong desire to keep S40A as simple as possible while striving to cover all situations. It appeared that S40, F2, OTB4L and possibly 40/F2 would comprise the final package.

More recently, however, much discussion has focused on F3, RD1, and 40N ostensibly in conjunction with S40A. This is confusing, since it appeared that we were very near a decision point several weeks ago, but have veered considered off track. Your clarification would be appreciated. Thanks.

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it is what I found on the forum for OTB4L . Can I apply this rules with S40. Or is there any modifications? OK, now, how do you play this OTB4L? First I THINK that we can dispense with the 0 and or t

Ellis, please provide a synopsis of your current thinking regarding the finalization of the S40A manual and if feasible, your best projected date for release to all members.

Based on previous posts, you have indicated a strong desire to keep S40A as simple as possible while striving to cover all situations. It appeared that S40, F2, OTB4L and possibly 40/F2 would comprise the final package.

More recently, however, much discussion has focused on F3, RD1, and 40N ostensibly in conjunction with S40A. This is confusing, since it appeared that we were very near a decision point several weeks ago, but have veered considered off track. Your clarification would be appreciated. Thanks.

Sure: In no particular order:

First, I had thought we could eliminate RD1 from under the S40A umbrella but Res's shoe clearly points out that's probably not a good idea. While the runs following runs shoe type has been rare in recent years it was the predominant shoe type once upon a time. Today, esp with new casinos popping up all the time, there is no telling when we might see a resurgence of that shoe type. I'm thinking that while we want to keep 40A simple with as few systems as possible, we need to keep RD1 in play. While I was thinking that F2 would cover this shoe type adequately, up pops Res's shoe where F2 loses and RD1 kills. But I don't mind keeping RD1 in because its such a simple system to teach and play and its also easy to identify its shoe type. (a lack of single 1's)

The objective of S40A remains to cover ALL shoe types with as few systems as possible.

I don't consider F2 and F3 two different systems. They are two optional ways of playing the same system and its relatively easy to determine which option to play in a given shoe. (are you winning or losing the third bet). or (are 2s high or low). F2/F3 is much the same as choosing the right culprit in S40.

That leaves the S40A umbrella including S40, F2/F3, RD1 and OTB4L. From a teaching and learning standpoint, each of these systems can be matched to a specific shoe type W/O leaving any shoe type out. And, while overall we will be principally deciding between 40 and F2, mind you that there will be days when RD1 or OTB4L will be the system of the day. We must keep casino tactics in mind at all times. Those guys are ALWAYS trying to beat us. That is their job and they are pretty darn good at it. Basically Baccarat is the art of matching wits with the casino. What are they doing and how do we beat it?

Note that I have purposely left out ALL forms of net bet systems. Net betting is my pride and joy but it brings on a new dimension of complexity. I think net betting should be kept as a next subject AFTER getting S40A down pat. When, what, and how to net bet, while essential to the pro, is just not necessary to my first goal which is to graduate players from the 99% pool of losing players to the 1% club of winning players. When you think about it, that is a pretty grandiose goal.

Going from winners to TOP winners needs to be a next goal. THAT brings up net betting. But for now, lets tackle one goal at a time.

I see the goal of S40A as winning 90% of the shoes you play while keeping the average + score of your winning shoes higher than the avg - score of your losing shoes.

While other Bac teachers (most of whom I taught) have achieved the 90% win rate, their problem is that one loss more than wipes out ten wins. We want to avoid that kind of play at all costs. The trick is to win W/O making high desperation bets. The ONLY way to to that is to follow the shoe at hand. Hence, S40A. One of those systems will beat every shoe ever contrived. The trick is matching the right system to the shoe at hand thus avoiding high bets. Lets learn THAT first, THEN we are free to experiment with net betting.

I see ADN as another simpler way to go. Some players may want to focus on that esp while we are putting the final touches on S40A. It IS simple and it beats MOST shoes. I applaud their efforts.

Edited by ECD
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Is the "low" a typo? Should it be "long"?

BTW thanks for the cheat sheet!

No, low runs means the shoe is short in 4 or mores either straight or ZZ. We call them "runless" shoes. Normally there are 4.5 straight 4 or mores plus 4.5 ZZ 4 or mores counted correctly. (A 2112 has a ZZ run of 4 in it). So anything less than 9 total runs of 4 or more makes a good OTB4L shoe, the less the better. We like to see less than 2 4 or mores straight or ZZ per col. of 20.

While we NEVER used to see such shoes, today the casinos strive to produce such shoes. They make their greatest profits on such shoes. See, nearly all players are playing a streak or a chop system. But runless shoes lose to both types of players. Playing OTB4L in runless shoes, we are almost always the only winners at the table.

For instance, the morning card prep at Gold Strike, Tunica was so OTB4L favorable that I was able to win nearly every shoe for 3 years by only playing the first 3 or 4 shoes after the morning card prep with OTB4L. After 3 or 4 shoes I'd simply go open another table. Playing head to head I could complete a shoe in about 20 minutes. I had several 20 shoe trips winning every shoe. Several times the conditions were so OTB4L favorable that I could exploit by basing a U1D1 M3 prog at 2 instead of 1 and shoot for 30 units a shoe. Perhaps this gives you an idea of why I tend to smile at players who think all cards are random.

Edited by ECD
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Sir Donald

Ellis, wishing you a speedy recovery from you illness.

Now that we have established that the S40A umbrella consists of S40. F2/F3, RD1 and OTB4L, it would be most helpful, as your time permits, to provide us with the following information in a preliminary write-up or draft......until publication of the final S40A manual, which may take awhile.

1) Complete and current rules for each of the four systems. ( We really need all the current rules in one place.....and accurate with your official blessing.)

2) Precise triggers/indicators for switching systems based on OR and SAP counts. ( This is particularly important with four systems, so that we are always on the same page and any two people will play the shoe in the same way with identical results).

3) Several shoes for each system to illustrate the switching rules with appropriate betting progressions.

A provisional manual should be much faster and simpler to prepare and allow for later additions, insertions or corrections.

Thanks.

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As luck would have it, I put 5 hrs into it this morning only to have my mirowave trip a circuit breaker and I lost it. So I guess that turned out to be a practice run.

Anyway I wrote a new overview. Then Chapter One was System Selection. Chapter Two was Event Norms. (We need to know what the norms are to identify what is ABnormal which decides our system selection.

Well hopefully it will all come out better the second time around tomorrow.

BTW, I unplugged the micrewave.

I'm going to need a volunteer to help me with posting shoe samples. I'll give you all the info. Neither of my scanners made it through the termoil of the last nine months.

BTW, never volunteer to take care of an invalided alcoholic. I'm pretty much having to rebuild the entire house. At least there were some good times in between disasters.

Ann is here helping me. But it will take some time to get everything back to normal, whatever that is.

If I don't answer the phone I'm probably up a ladder. You have no idea. Neither did I. But I'll get through this.

I was planning Chapter 3 for Rules Synopsis.

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Ellis, wishing you a speedy recovery from you illness.

Now that we have established that the S40A umbrella consists of S40. F2/F3, RD1 and OTB4L, it would be most helpful, as your time permits, to provide us with the following information in a preliminary write-up or draft......until publication of the final S40A manual, which may take awhile.

1) Complete and current rules for each of the four systems. ( We really need all the current rules in one place.....and accurate with your official blessing.)

2) Precise triggers/indicators for switching systems based on OR and SAP counts. ( This is particularly important with four systems, so that we are always on the same page and any two people will play the shoe in the same way with identical results).

3) Several shoes for each system to illustrate the switching rules with appropriate betting progressions.

A provisional manual should be much faster and simpler to prepare and allow for later additions, insertions or corrections.

Thanks.

Before I get started this morning, I would like to correct one flaw I see in your requests.

The SAP count, fine, we need it to play S40 AND OTB4L. It also is of some service deciding between F2 and F3. And it is of some service deciding on RD1 because we know that RD1 does not like single 1's.

Now the flaw: The OR count alone is not a deciding factor on which system to play. It is our first indicator.

+ count = chop. Since we have only ONE chop system, S40, a + count usually = S40. A high + count that strongly favors + virtually always = S40.

But remember that a strongly one sided shoe = F2.

I mention this with the 212s in mind. This repeating pattern produces a strong + count BUT the strongly one sided factor points to F2. While 40 handles the 212s very well, F2 does even better. More important is that while a straight run the wrong length can spoil an S40 shoe, it actually helps F2 making F2 the safer choice in a 212 run or a strong 212 or 313 shoe. In other words, the OR count is not always the final word. I'd like you to think of it as a strong indicator only.

Another problem of looking ONLY at the sign, + or - is OTB4L shoes. We can have an OR count that has been + from the beginning of the shoe but its stagnant, perhaps hovering around +2 or +3. This indicats OTB4L, not S40. While S40 will win, OTB4L will win better.

I'm devoting Chapter One to System Selection listing the likes and dislikes of each of the 4 systems. That is your final word. WHICH system would be doing BEST in this shoe so far??? THAT decides the issue. The OR count merely points you in the most logical GENERAL direction. System likes and dislikes is the final word.

When you have this down pat, I want you to be able to glance at a tote board W/O breaking stride down the isle and KNOW which system is indicated the most. Put the emphasis on selecting the right system in the FIRST place NOT on switching to the right sytem after losing several units.

Sometimes, particularly early in the day, the whole casino is going ONE way. Sometimes our table stays the same way all day. Great! Those are the easy days. The rest of the time, sorry, but we have to use our brains.

We want to select the EASIEST table. That is the table that points to a specific system the strongest. Let the other guys play the tough tables.

Its not about beating your brains against the toughest tables. Its about finding the easiest table in the first place.

In home practice you have the disadvantage that all your practice shoes have been taken out of context of the casino. In the casino, you have the advantage of table selection. But only if you take advantage of it.

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Guys, I'm working feverishly on the S40A Manual but at the moment it is a little hard to find.

Go to BTC front page. Hit forum upper left. Hit Baccarat, Hit System 40. Then hit the main heading System 40 Advanced Manual. If you get the one that starts with Chapter One, you've got the wrong one.I'm posting the manual as I go. This means that I'm likely to go back to prior pages and make additions and or corrections as I go. Note that while I said Event frequencies would be a separate chapter, since I figured a short way to state them, I included it in Chapter One, However, since Chapter One lists the Likes and Dislike of each of the 4 systems, I've decided to add a Chapter Two that looks at selection the other way around. Here I will list all the shoe types I can think of and which system is the right one for each shoe type.

But anything else you would like to see covered let me know here.

Chaper Two will be System Selection by Shoe Type.

Chapter Three will be Rules

Chapter Four will be Betting Strategy Selection

Chapter Five will be Money Management

Chapter Six will be Sample Games.

At least that is the way I see it at this point.

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Ellis –

It is quite common for a shoe to have different trends within it. For example it starts out choppy – say for the first 10-15 hands with lots of 1s & 2s – and you would go S40. But just when you start with S40 it turns to streak following streak for the next 20 hands or so with the occasional single 1s. So you go RD1/F2. Then it starts to throw up junk on you.

Basing your system selection on past hands is good only if the trend continues. But if it doesnt you are always playing catch up, and past hands are always a lagging indicator. Someone once said – was it you? - that doing it this way is like driving while looking into the rear view mirror – you wouldnt know there’s a traffic light or railway crossing in front of you until you passed it – if you make it through safely!

So – quite apart from quitting the shoe or pausing - is there a way around this?

Using table trend as a leading indicator? Wont work & heres why. Some casinos do not recycle the cards after each shoe. They do not even shuffle them before a shoe begins. What happens is that they use new pre-shuffled boxed cards for every new shoe. We wouldnt know whether the pre-shuffling was done internally by the casino back room or by the card suppliers, or whether the shuffle was done by machine or by hand, or what method of card prep or shuffle was used. I have seen a choppy shoe followed by streaky shoes followed by a junk shoe all at the same table & the next shoe is anybody's guess.

See whenever a new box of 8-deck is opened the dealer will without shuffling, cut the deck (or have a player do it), then place it into the shoe, burn a few cards, then begin dealing. Hence there is no table trend since a new box of cards wouldnt know what the earlier box has done.

Can you address these in the manual ie how to play cold with new pre-shuffled cards which show no table/casino trend or history, & which has several trends within the shoe. Thanks

Edited by Probac
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BaCcArAt KiNg
Ellis –

It is quite common for a shoe to have different trends within it. For example it starts out choppy – say for the first 10-15 hands with lots of 1s & 2s – and you would go S40. But just when you start with S40 it turns to streak following streak for the next 20 hands or so with the occasional single 1s. So you go RD1/F2. Then it starts to throw up junk on you.

Basing your system selection on past hands is good only if the trend continues. But if it doesnt you are always playing catch up, and past hands are always a lagging indicator. Someone once said – was it you? - that doing it this way is like driving while looking into the rear view mirror – you wouldnt know there’s a traffic light or railway crossing in front of you until you passed it – if you make it through safely!

So – quite apart from quitting the shoe or pausing - is there a way around this?

Using table trend as a leading indicator? Wont work & heres why. Some casinos do not recycle the cards after each shoe. They do not even shuffle them before a shoe begins. What happens is that they use new pre-shuffled boxed cards for every new shoe. We wouldnt know whether the pre-shuffling was done internally by the casino back room or by the card suppliers, or whether the shuffle was done by machine or by hand, or what method of card prep or shuffle was used. I have seen a choppy shoe followed by streaky shoes followed by a junk shoe all at the same table & the next shoe is anybody's guess.

See whenever a new box of 8-deck is opened the dealer will without shuffling, cut the deck (or have a player do it), then place it into the shoe, burn a few cards, then begin dealing. Hence there is no table trend since a new box of cards wouldnt know what the earlier box has done.

Can you address these in the manual ie how to play cold with new pre-shuffled cards which show no table/casino trend or history, & which has several trends within the shoe. Thanks

I agree with you here Probac.

These are the kind of shoes they encountered on their last Hollywood trip.

Eventhough we combine S40-F2/3-RD1-OTB4L, the question still remains --- "when will be the best time to switch systems?"

Relying on our OR count alone to switch systems can be very tricky.

Like what I said, casinos know how we maneuver our bet placements using OR count.

These came straight from the mouth of my casino employee friend.

I cannot tell his/her position but he/she is included on the top hierarchy of operations.

BK

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BaCcArAt KiNg
Ellis –

Can you address these in the manual ie how to play cold with new pre-shuffled cards which show no table/casino trend or history, & which has several trends within the shoe. Thanks

It is better if you don't expect too much for this to happen.

If you will have the chance to play in any Asian casino (Macau, Singapore, Philippines etc.) you will experience first hand that S40 will struggle.

Unless Sir Ellis & Co. can address the "switching" concern of S40, then S40 is just "another good approach."

BK

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So S40A combines the best of all worlds:

S40 is the best Chop system in the world but also handles Streak.

F2 is the best Streak system in the world but can handle Chop.

OTB4L is the best Neutral system and can outperform in Neutral .

And RD1 is the best Streak system in a severe shortage of 1’s.

(We call that last shoe type runs following runs.)

The key to winning the most units possible with the S40A approach is to match the right system to the right shoe. This is accomplished by the simple OR count.

But it is possible and relatively easy to predict the OR count through casino savvy:

What does the card prep usually produce at this casino?

What were the prior shoes favoring - chop or streak?

Are the blue and red shoes playing the same or differently?

How old are the cards?

(New cards are generally more consistent than old cards.)

Are the players at this table generally winning or losing?

(If losing, we can expect the shoe type to remain the same. But, if winning, we can expect the shoe type to change.)

Do all casinos in the world use card prep and how to check them ?

While some casinos buy preshuffled cards, and we will discuss those too. Most casinos buy "boxed card order cards'. Ace thru 2, Spades Diamonds Hearts Clubs, the same way the cards are arranged when you open a new deck you bought. The normal between shoe shuffle will not even begin to randomize new boxed card order cards. You would see all kinds of remnants of the boxed card order. It would be laughable. Therefore these casinos do a special card prep with new cards. They go through a wash and then an extensive shuffle. The "wash" is when they mezmerize all 8 decks on the table face down. A short wash (30 seconds or less) with a skimpy shuffle produces streak. A long wash and complete shuffle produces chop. Casinos are expert in controlling the shoe type with the card prep.

It is not necessary that you study card preps as I did. What IS important for you is to know what kind of shoe the card prep produces at a given casino and how consistent that shoe type is and how many shoes that shoe type persists (usually 3 or 4.) That gives you a huge leg up when playing new cards.

As I mentioned before I won every trip and almost every shoe at Gold Strike Tunica for 3 years by playing only the first 3 or 4 shoes after the card prep because the specific card prep they used strongly favored OTB4L type runless shoes. Other card preps produce chop (S40) like our first trip to Holleywood and others produce streak. It pays to know.

In the casinos I know in Europe they hand shuffle between each shoe and the way they do it, I don't understand how the previous shoe can have any influence on the next one!

For sure, the cards do not know or care what country they are in. Cards are cards. Boxed card order is the same in all countries. The shuffle between shoes is virtually meaningless. They might just as well skip it. Computer scientists have demonstrated that it takes 7 shuffles to randomize a single deck of card. Two decks is not 14, its 49. 8 decks takes 7 to the eighth power. They would have to shuffle for weeks to produce random cards. The casinos know this. The LAST thing they want is random cards. If the cards were random all Basic Strategy BJ players (95%) would win and casinos would have gone broke a long time ago. The cards are NOT random and the opposite of random is biased. That is why we play biases both in Bac and BJ.

If I start a shoe without knowing anything about the trend,I think I have to wait some hands to "feel" this shoe, applying O/R and SAP.

Or maybe just flat betting.

Exactly right! You would NEVER start betting hard earned money W/O knowing what is going on. Not if you are a student of MINE. That is SICK. When I'm playing old cards I ALWAYS start a new table mid shoe so the toteboard can tell me what system to play. I'm right 9 times out of ten. It pays to go through the whole list of check items you reprinted above. The more you know about the table/shoe the better off you are. We are there to make money, not to gamble. Its not a game! It's a job!

Could you , please summarize which system to use with wich O/R and SAP count and when to stop and change system. I think, as you say, it is what makes the winner from the loser.

But it is also the most difficult notion to understand. Thank you

That is exactly the part of the manual I'm writing right now. Try it, you'll like it.

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Ok, that's at least two questions about how to play factory preshuffled cards: Muling and Probac.

Factory preshuffled will STILL be biased. One of you was reporting on factory preshuffled cards in Australia. Every shoe with new cards was ridiculously super choppy. We were seeing twice the normal number of 1 and 2 in a rows. VERY easy to beat soundly with S40. The same was true with the middle isle at Gold Coast, Vegas. Those 8 tables use factory preshuffled and all 8 tables were super chop. But the next day they were super streak. (probably a different shipment of cards). We can't say what type of shoe new factory preshuffled cards will produce but we DO see extreme consistency on a given day and that is what counts.

Bac King is right. Don't say new factory preshuffled cards = S40. You are far better off to note: What are they producing today and play accordingly.

NEVER decide what you are going to play until you see what you are up against. Give yourself an edge. 99.9% of players don't and therefore lose. Be in the 0.1 club.

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About changing shoe trends you guys were very sharp to notice that the first Holleywood trip was MUCH easier than the second.

On the first trip there was only one table open and that table was always consistently choppy or consistently streaky. Ridiculously easy for players like us. But we were STILL the ONLY winners.

But on the second trip they knew we were coming and they were FAR better prepared. They usually had 4 tables open in two pits. The two pits did NOT prep the same way. The wash in the new pit was what we call an eyewash. It was more for looks than effect. The shoes were disjointed.

While on the first trip we very seldom had to change systems midshoe, the second trip we were frequently changing mid shoe.

The casino's lack of coordination (throwing last minute pit crews together - guys with no Bac experience) worked against us because we never knew what to expect. Neither did they.

So, we had to pull in the reins by reducing our stop wins to 10 and reducing our firsts bets from 3 to 1. Shoe history was not nearly as consistent. But we still did very well with our new targets.

Hey, some days are easy and some days are hard. Normally I would have picked up and gone to another casino but we had quite a group there. It ended up that F3 saved the day and a few OTB4L's thrown in. +10 was harder on the second trip than +20 was on the first trip. It is not always easy but in the end, we won quite well.

This brings up that question back there of what to do when you are frequently getting changing shoes??? Fortunately, this is the exception not the rule. I usually find myself changing systems mid shoe about one shoe in ten. The second trip it was closer to 5 out of ten. NOTHING says you MUST play. But if you do, pull in the reins and lower your goals.

Nearly all players make their highest bets in their worst shoes. WRONG WRONG WRONG. You want your bets to avg the most in your EASIEST shoes and the LEAST in your toughest shoes. On the second trip I mostly played 2 high with an occassional 3. On the first trip I was playing every shoe 5 high because my 5s were winning. So were my 4s and 3s.

When there is ice on the road SLOW DOWN!

Which system would have won the most bets so far? That is what I played.

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Interesting discussion on playing conditions. How to play highly inconsistent shoes that require system change or progression change and possibly bet deviations and occasionally pausing or even bailing the table if you are totally confused on what tack to take.

I don’t claim to have the answer to this but if you find yourself at tables and you are confused as to how to play the shoe you are probably playing a highly segmented shoe. It sure pays to know a little casino history when it comes to this but in my mind these game types (highly segmented) are no accident. If you can imagine what we have to do to adjust to these kinds of shoes just imagine what it does to the average player. I expect to see more of these shoe types and have for the better part of a year adjusted recording shoes in blocks of ten plays. After ten hands I note what would have been the best system to have played those ten hands. I write it in the margin of the card something like RD or 43 or F2 or F3 etc. As a holdover from Maverick original I note RDH or Anti also. Some shoes hold a position for a whole shoe and sometimes perhaps ½ a shoe. But more than likely you will run into shoes that point to a system change every 10 or 20 hands at times. Sometimes it is a minor change like F2 changing Bank to Player but still the same mode but I still record everything. This includes ratios of B vs. P every 10 hands to the overall shoe B/P count. I also found it helpful to count and record OTB4L vs. TB4L and a dot count of Maverick original with a tweak that hopefully makes it more accurate. I find that recording a lot of data is very helpful not only within that shoe but as a record of the tendencies of the casino you are playing.

I find I am seldom surprised any more even in the most bizarre shoes. In short, track everything you can physically track. You’ll get very fluid at this with practice. You can get so fluid with this that you can scan a tote board (if kept accurate) and do a lot of this in your head and make a winning first bet while you catch up on your card.

I don’t want to get to technical here but I also look for exploit situations. I am now using an old up as you win ladder betting system that Ellis came up with a long time ago and look to deploy this in consistent plus to neutral count shoes that would be considered good OTB4L shoes and play the plus version in well balanced shoes. Using a 3 unit stop loss you set yourself up for a big win or the shoes changes and you pick up from there as normal. Since this uses a count to determine plus and minus modes I now also keep a C/S count for this and Sys 40A as well as a dual Sap arrangement on a standard card. The dual Sap I just enter a a colored fraction over the regular SAP count. In some shoes this is very helpful and justifies doing it but usually single SAP is enough. I also keep the 4 or mores counted as normal and make it a / and enter the 4’s as +8 under it as a fraction. This way if the shoe is minus and starts to swing into chop I have a true count for determining LC (least common).

I know this may sound painful to do but with practice it comes to you pretty quick. The better you track a shoe the more it keeps you on top of difficult situations and as Ellis so aptly pointed out, keeps you from making those big bets in the worst of shoes.

I like that Ellis is keeping the negative progs low with Sys 40A. It shows that you can keep a negative progression 3 Hi or less and still do well.

I’m not going to upload any of my cards as it will just open a can of worms. Been there, done that before. I leave the system design to the designers. I just tweak things to suit my own style. I’m just tossing in my 2 cents for what it’s worth.

Well it’s back to the Bac cave for Papadu. Swoosh

P.S. Keep up the good work !!!

I

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Very well said Tom. As you guys may have guessed, Tom has been with me a long long long time and gives you a good idea of just how good you can get at this game.

One more thing about switching mid shoe: Recognize that in general, the more you switch the worse off you are. The mistake I saw our players making at Hollywood was switching too often. Don't try to beat every whim of the shoe. Go after the MAIN bias and give it a chance.

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Ellis –

It is quite common for a shoe to have different trends within it. For example it starts out choppy – say for the first 10-15 hands with lots of 1s & 2s – and you would go S40. But just when you start with S40 it turns to streak following streak for the next 20 hands or so with the occasional single 1s. So you go RD1/F2. Then it starts to throw up junk on you.

Basing your system selection on past hands is good only if the trend continues. But if it doesnt you are always playing catch up, and past hands are always a lagging indicator. Someone once said – was it you? - that doing it this way is like driving while looking into the rear view mirror – you wouldnt know there’s a traffic light or railway crossing in front of you until you passed it – if you make it through safely!

So – quite apart from quitting the shoe or pausing - is there a way around this?

Using table trend as a leading indicator? Wont work & heres why. Some casinos do not recycle the cards after each shoe. They do not even shuffle them before a shoe begins. What happens is that they use new pre-shuffled boxed cards for every new shoe. We wouldnt know whether the pre-shuffling was done internally by the casino back room or by the card suppliers, or whether the shuffle was done by machine or by hand, or what method of card prep or shuffle was used. I have seen a choppy shoe followed by streaky shoes followed by a junk shoe all at the same table & the next shoe is anybody's guess.

See whenever a new box of 8-deck is opened the dealer will without shuffling, cut the deck (or have a player do it), then place it into the shoe, burn a few cards, then begin dealing. Hence there is no table trend since a new box of cards wouldnt know what the earlier box has done.

Can you address these in the manual ie how to play cold with new pre-shuffled cards which show no table/casino trend or history, & which has several trends within the shoe. Thanks

This is such a well constructed post I thought it was worthy of repeating. Probac, where are you finding this condition and is it Big or Mini?

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This is such a well constructed post I thought it was worthy of repeating. Probac, where are you finding this condition and is it Big or Mini?

Ellis -

This is found in the casino in Singapore. But I believe multi-trend shoes & new pre-shuffled boxed cards for every new shoe is not uncommon in many other casinos.

Its midi - ie one-dealer tables with 9 betting boxes

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I agree with you here Probac.

These are the kind of shoes they encountered on their last Hollywood trip.

Eventhough we combine S40-F2/3-RD1-OTB4L, the question still remains --- "when will be the best time to switch systems?"

Relying on our OR count alone to switch systems can be very tricky.

Like what I said, casinos know how we maneuver our bet placements using OR count.

These came straight from the mouth of my casino employee friend.

I cannot tell his/her position but he/she is included on the top hierarchy of operations.

BK

Well put! Most common dealers are not in the know, whether Bac or Bj. But once they have a little seniority and display a pro company orientation they are soon put into the know. The casino is their friend and players are the enemy. While they are trained to be nice to you they are really laughing up their sleeve. If we could put a listening device in the dealer break room you would probably become ill listening to it. They are out to GET you any way they can including out and out cheating. "Oh I thought you said STAND."

I did the next best thing for three years. I lived at The Madison House in AC, bought a dealer shirt and hung out with the dealers every night buying them pitchers of beer. The Madison House is the biggest dealer hang out in the world - or at least it was at that time. It'a amazing how loose a tongue gets after a couple pitchers of beer and if you can throw in a Martini or two, you've got em. The stories were appalling. Slipping the 5 or 6, the Bahama hole card trick, The 38 special trick, Pit Boss backed color up tricks, Dealing seconds, the bet pile breakdown trick, speed dealing, Counting player 21s as 22 and dealer 22s as 21. I heard new tricks every night for three years. And some naive people still think casinos are their friend. Look, they aren't your friend. Their entire focus is to get your money. THAT is what they are paid to do.

And thank God! If they weren't cheating we couldn't beat them. We beat them BECAUSE they are cheating. We use their own cheating against them. Look, the cards are SUPPOSED to be random but they aren't are they. Look, Basic Strategy BEATS truly random cards hands down. If the cards were random the casinos would have gone broke a long time ago. Bac uses the same cards the same shuffles and the same machines as BJ.

There is ALWAYS a trend. There is no such thing as no trend. No trend is a trend in itself. Hey, this shoe is changing from chop to streak or streak to chop every 8 plays. GREAT! Guess what! THAT'S WHAT YOU BET!

Atlantic City 1998. The casinos came up with a new quarter shuffle. The cards were shuffled in 4 quarters. If the first col was choppy the second would be streaky, the third choppy the fourth streaky. We handed them their ass for the whole year. Think about it. How could we lose? After the first couple hands we knew the whole shoe.

Today, Most casinos, but not all, have dropped those kinds of tactics. Too Obvious! But they still have tactics. Machine timers: Short shuffles produce streak. Long shuffles produce chop. Timers are controlled upstairs, not at the pit. Ask your Casino friend about THAT. We used to time the shuffle machines. So guess what. They redesigned them to be perfectly silent. You can't tell whether the dam things are on or off. Well, unless you are tall, like me and you sit at third base and rest your foot gently against the machine pedestal. Yep, I think that's where vibrating phones got the idea.

They will always cheat. They have to. There is ALWAYS a bias. Our job is to detect it and play it.

Look at it this way: In the mid '90's the avg Baccarat Casino retention % of the drop was 3%. Today most casinos are pushing 26%. Do you think the players were suddenly struck stupid??? Or do you think the casinos got smarter. Our job is to be smarter still. THAT is what I'm trying to teach you.

Sorry to be so blunt but the FIRST thing you have to know is exactly what you are up against. Yep, they cheat. But we cheat better!

Edited by ECD
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Ellis -

This is found in the casino in Singapore. But I believe multi-trend shoes & new pre-shuffled boxed cards for every new shoe is not uncommon in many other casinos.

Its midi - ie one-dealer tables with 9 betting boxes

OK, give me an idea of the typical OR count range you see in a shoe. Like -8 to +8, Bigger? Smaller?

Do they bother with two different shoe colors?

Do they shuffle at all or just cut and deal?

Do the 8 decks? come to the table in a sealed box?

How do you know all the cards are there?

About 72 hands per shoe not counting ties?

What are the longest runs you generally see, straight and ZZ?

Is one shoe choppy and maybe the next streaky or is the same shoe usually going both ways?

Edited by ECD
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[quote name= Originally Posted by Probac

Ellis -

This is found in the casino in Singapore. But I believe multi-trend shoes & new pre-shuffled boxed cards for every new shoe is not uncommon in many other casinos.

Its midi - ie one-dealer tables with 9 betting boxe

E. Clifton Davis]OK, give me an idea of the typical OR count range you see in a shoe. Like -8 to +8, Bigger? Smaller?

Do they bother with two different shoe colors?

Do they shuffle at all or just cut and deal?

Do the 8 decks? come to the table in a sealed box?

How do you know all the cards are there?

About 72 hands per shoe not counting ties?

What are the longest runs you generally see, straight and ZZ?

Is one shoe choppy and maybe the next streaky or is the same shoe usually going both ways?

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Right Bernard. The older timers here are very familiar with Dublinbet and we used to play it almost exclusively as far as on line casinos go. We did quite well but lately the on line players seem to prefer Bet Phoenix because it is usually biased and sometimes highly biased..

I'm not saying that there is always a shoe to shoe trend (a table trend) or even a shoe color trend. But it is an important item on your check list to check and see if there is a table trend. In real casinos there often is but not always.

I play table trends almost exclusively and I've played in hundreds of casinos.

For instance, I posted a trip report not that far back on a trip to Gold Coast, Vegas which caters to Bac Players. They have 16 tables in two isles. The middle isle is factory preshuffled. The wall isle is boxed card order same cards all day.

I was there for a 3 day BJ tournament and was able to frequently look over the Bac tables. The preshuffled isle favored streak that trip with a couple of tables consistently streaky.

The boxed card order isle was both streaky and choppy. But one table, table 4 was choppy every time I looked in. So when I got to play I chose table 4 and played it on and off the whole trip. BTW, whenever I checked that table I also checked the players past score cards to see what the games did that I missed. All favored chop. During the trip I was able to get 20 shoes in all at that same table. The longest run I played was a single 7 in a row. I played Sys 40 exclusively and never lost a single shoe.

Later a group trip to that same casino went much the same way. We stuck to the most biased table we could find and all 15 players did very well.

No, not every table is reliably biased. MOST aren't. But it pays to look the situation over and find the MOST biased table before you play. I've been playing successfully that way for 30 years. The reason I don't play on line casinos is there is NO table selection. You must give up one of your strongest advantages.

Tunica is a 3 hour drive for me but I have won 90% of the shoes I play there by only playing new cards or the most biased table. I think I still hold the record at Horseshoe with 28 shoe wins in a row but I actually prefer Gold Strike. I've had several 20 shoe win trips there, about one trip out of 3. All because of wise table selection together with wise system selection. Why give up your strongest advantage just to avoid a car hike?

But, I can certainly see where a player who skips table selection will think that all tables are all over the place. For him, they are! You see those idiots who race you to the empty seat. It's a predrawn conclusion - they will lose for sure.

To me it is a job, not fun and games. Before I play, I know what every table is doing and what, if anything, the morning card prep is producing. It is the most important part of the job. Why play with no advantage? If I find no advantage I simply don't play but that almost never happens.

Edited by ECD
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BaCcArAt KiNg

Asian Casinos (Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines etc.) offer these kind of shoe trends (multi-trends). These are common occurrences in our casinos.

Like what I said, go to Singapore, Malaysia or even the Philippines and you will experience first hand that S40 will struggle.

From my playing experience, S40 is weak on multi-trend shoes.

The main problem is the switching from S40 to F2/F3 to RD1 to OTB4L vice-versa on multi-trend shoes.

Most of the time, your switch is already late for the next trend.

In multi-trend shoes, our SAP and OR (C/S) count has no use.

The New S40 Manual should include a chapter on how to handle multi-trend shoes.

Otherwise, S40A will only be “another†good approach.

OK, give me an idea of the typical OR count range you see in a shoe. Like -8 to +8, Bigger? Smaller?

+1, 0, -1 (Neutral)....... -8 (Streaky) ....+8 (Choppy)...... You will see ALL these trends in one shoe --- MULTI-TREND.

Do they bother with two different shoe colors?

NO COLOR CODING (Blue/Red). You do not have any idea if the “table area†is a straight chop, streak, neutral or multi-trend.

They do not have a “pattern†on the “table areas.â€

Do they shuffle at all or just cut and deal?

Just CUT and DEAL.

Do the 8 decks? come to the table in a sealed box?

8 DECKS IN A SEALED TRANSPARENT SHEET. You will see the actual 8 decks.

How do you know all the cards are there?

Before the cut and deal, the Dealer will open the sealed transparent sheet containing the 8 decks of cards.

He will now discard maximum of ten cards from the deck before placing the 8 decks of cards inside the shoe box.

About 72 hands per shoe not counting ties?

YES.

What are the longest runs you generally see, straight and ZZ?

BOTH ON MULTI-TREND SHOES. STRAIGHT RUNS, ZZ RUNS and included will be the TT RUNS OF 5s 6s 7s 8s etc. NO SPECIFIC PATTERN FOR THE DAY.

On one table the run is 5, the other 8, the other 16(!) then the other, NO RUNs at all.

Is one shoe choppy and maybe the next streaky or is the same shoe usually going both ways?

SAME SHOE GOING THREE-WAYS (Streaky, Choppy & Neutral) on one shoe.

Having answered all your queries Sir Ellis, I believe you now have an idea my day-to-day battle with our casinos in my country of play.

More “challenging†I believe.

BK

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