S40A Manual Q&A

[BaCcArAt KiNg]

Btw, I also studied/played morning, afternoon, evening, late evening and early morning card preps but STILL NO TREND (PATTERN).

Everyday is a "battle" in my country of play. I think Multi-Trend Shoes are the new era of card preparation.

It is happening already in Asian casinos. Maybe next will be your country. Your last Hollywood Trip is a Preview.

Veteran players in my country are now thinking of new approaches in beating multi-trend shoes.

Gone are the days of easy single or double trend shoes. At least in my area of play.

BK

[ECD]

Asian Casinos (Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines etc.) offer these kind of shoe trends (multi-trends). These are common occurrences in our casinos.

Like what I said, go to Singapore, Malaysia or even the Philippines and you will experience first hand that S40 will struggle.

From my playing experience, S40 is weak on multi-trend shoes.

The main problem is the switching from S40 to F2/F3 to RD1 to OTB4L vice-versa on multi-trend shoes.

Most of the time, your switch is already late for the next trend.

In multi-trend shoes, our SAP and OR (C/S) count has no use.

The New S40 Manual should include a chapter on how to handle multi-trend shoes.

Otherwise, S40A will only be “another” good approach.

+1, 0, -1 (Neutral)....... -8 (Streaky) ....+8 (Choppy)...... You will see ALL these trends in one shoe --- MULTI-TREND.

NO COLOR CODING (Blue/Red). You do not have any idea if the “table area” is a straight chop, streak, neutral or multi-trend.

They do not have a “pattern” on the “table areas.”

Just CUT and DEAL.

8 DECKS IN A SEALED TRANSPARENT SHEET. You will see the actual 8 decks.

Before the cut and deal, the Dealer will open the sealed transparent sheet containing the 8 decks of cards.

He will now discard maximum of ten cards from the deck before placing the 8 decks of cards inside the shoe box.

YES.

BOTH ON MULTI-TREND SHOES. STRAIGHT RUNS, ZZ RUNS and included will be the TT RUNS OF 5s 6s 7s 8s etc. NO SPECIFIC PATTERN FOR THE DAY.

On one table the run is 5, the other 8, the other 16(!) then the other, NO RUNs at all.

SAME SHOE GOING THREE-WAYS (Streaky, Choppy & Neutral) on one shoe.

Having answered all your queries Sir Ellis, I believe you now have an idea my day-to-day battle with our casinos in my country of play.

More “challenging” I believe.

BK

More challenging indeed!

Excuse my skepticism but I've heard the same story re Atlantic City and found that I could still easily find a strongly biased table.

But let's take you at your word and say that the trend is no trend. How do we play such a situation?

Here is the first thing I would do: I would reverse everything. I would anticipate that all trends will reverse.

A + OR count now means bet repeats mostly.

A - OR count now means bet mostly opposites (S40)

I would expect to see the LC event catch up and the MC event to diminish and bet accordingly.

In other words bet that all trends will reverse.

I suspect that I would look at a system that is NOT trend oriented such as ADN.

In fact, a member colleague of mine and I are looking at a new way to play ADN that introduces low side betting at strategic points in the shoe. The target application is trendless or reverse trending shoes. Perhaps you would like to join us on this highly interesting project. The system concentrates on taking advantage of whatever the shoe is doing right now and totally ignores shoe history.

If you are forced to play such conditions there must be many others. I take it your casinos there are rather large??? I suspect we could find many others interested in such a project - such a system. I hear Asia is quite large. I do not mind running simultaneous projects if the readership is there.

We haven't given this project a name as yet but I think ADNLS would do for now. Interested? BTW, the last shoe he called me about last night scored +18 flat betting at 1 unit. Hard to beat that kind of performance!

Edited January 14, 2011 by ECD

[ECD]

Btw, I also studied/played morning, afternoon, evening, late evening and early morning card preps but STILL NO TREND (PATTERN).

Everyday is a "battle" in my country of play. I think Multi-Trend Shoes are the new era of card preparation.

It is happening already in Asian casinos. Maybe next will be your country. Your last Hollywood Trip is a Preview.

Veteran players in my country are now thinking of new approaches in beating multi-trend shoes.

Gone are the days of easy single or double trend shoes. At least in my area of play.

BK

You seem to have done your homework. Now its time for me to do mine.

I seem to have made a career of inadvertently teaching casinos exactly how to take their game to the next level. Sometimes I'm my own worst enemy. You Asians are quick to catch on to stuff - both sides of the table.

Edited January 14, 2011 by ECD

[muling427]

Originally Posted by BaCcArAt KiNg

Btw, I also studied/played morning, afternoon, evening, late evening and early morning card preps but STILL NO TREND (PATTERN).

Everyday is a "battle" in my country of play. I think Multi-Trend Shoes are the new era of card preparation.

It is happening already in Asian casinos. Maybe next will be your country. Your last Hollywood Trip is a Preview.

Veteran players in my country are now thinking of new approaches in beating multi-trend shoes.

Gone are the days of easy single or double trend shoes. At least in my area of play.

BK

Now I think it is the case in most countries in the world !

We haven't given this project a name as yet but I think ADNLS would do for now. Interested? BTW, the last shoe he called me about last night scored +18 flat betting at 1 unit. Hard to beat that kind of performance!

Such a system would be perfect. Please Ellis go ahead !

Bernard

Edited January 15, 2011 by muling427

[ECD]

Now I think it is the case in most countries in the world !

Such a system would be perfect. Please Ellis go ahead !

Bernard

Well at least it would be perfect for that particular application.

Mind you that the following rules are extremely preliminary and I KNOW they will change as we study test shoes.

BUT we need more test shoes AND shoe testers.

I'm already thinking that rule 2 will change to to "under all 2,1's" instead of under all 2's.

1.) Play ADN U1D2 with no M2 (at present) EXCEPT

2.) Bet on the Low Side instead of the normal high side under all 2 in a rows and, once started, continue low side betting until 2 lost bets. Then revert back to high side betting (normal ADN).

That's it so far. Now we have been betting 1 unit regardless of the bet size called for, for test purposes. That tells us which exact rules give us the highest hands won rate.

Have at it guys and lets figure out what the exact rules should be.

Another way I have tried this instead of low side betting is both progs bet straight down under 2 in a rows untill a 3 occurs.

What we are looking to do is to win on all runs whether straight, ZZ, TT, or 212s.

If we can beat ALL 1's and 2s we are already beating 75% of all events plus 4 or mores.

See what YOU think the rules should be.

[patrickeregan]

OK, I give up. What is the ADN system and where can I find information on it?

[Audionut]

BOY AM I EXCITED!!! Why don't we start a new ADNLS thread just to make this more "organized"?

I'll go ahead with the previous post...

I'll see if I can't test with the new rules..

[res]

I'm confused. Are we abandoning System 40A?

I had felt that we were getting somewhere, but we seem to be going off on tangents for the last 10 days, or so.

I've been practicing with what I know of the system, but I still have questions about some of the finer points and would hate to see it dropped at this point.

RES

[Sir Donald]

Res, your point is well taken for the Q&A has shifted focus over the last few days, but that is temporary, as I am sure Ellis will confirm.

S40A, IMO, is the Crown Jewel or Mothership of all BTC systems, and forthcoming chapters from professor Ellis should be awesome and simply astound all of us. Am I right, Ellis?

I have scores of ideas for chapter material, but prefer to wait till Ellis is further along in the S40A manual.

Don

[ECD]

Res, your point is well taken for the Q&A has shifted focus over the last few days, but that is temporary, as I am sure Ellis will confirm.

S40A, IMO, is the Crown Jewel or Mothership of all BTC systems, and forthcoming chapters from professor Ellis should be awesome and simply astound all of us. Am I right, Ellis?

I have scores of ideas for chapter material, but prefer to wait till Ellis is further along in the S40A manual.

Don

Thanks Don! Correct. Just looking after the immediate needs of our Asian friends.

BTW I just played 3 shoes on Bet Phoenix for a member over the phone. Played S40A. The first two shoes I played RD1 as they started runs following runs. The third shoe I started with RD1 but quickly switched to 40 when it began with a 2,1,1. I quit at +20, +20 and +10. S40A is alive and well. So is Bet Phoenix. The member, Lin Knight, was thankful.

[BaCcArAt KiNg]

i suspect that i would look at a system that is not trend oriented such as adn.

In fact, a member colleague of mine and i are looking at a new way to play adn that introduces low side betting at strategic points in the shoe. The target application is trendless or reverse trending shoes. Perhaps you would like to join us on this highly interesting project.

Yes sir. No problem with that. Just keep me posted.

the system concentrates on taking advantage of whatever the shoe is doing right now and totally ignores shoe history.

We are already testing/applying this approach sir on actual table games. We started last January 3, 2011. We are still recording the results. So far so very good.

I just don’t know if what’s on your mind is the same as what we are using right now.

If same then we can share our inputs since we are already applying it.

if you are forced to play such conditions there must be many others. I take it your casinos there are rather large??? I suspect we could find many others interested in such a project - such a system. I hear asia is quite large. I do not mind running simultaneous projects if the readership is there.

Yes it is large. If you can develop a system that can consistently beat multi-trend shoes then I believe your forum will have a huge following in Asia.

Day in, day out our shoes here in Asia are multi-trend (at least from the places I've been playing --- Macau, Singapore & Philippines).

we haven't given this project a name as yet but i think adnls would do for now. Interested?

Yes. Since the upcoming system will concentrate on taking advantage of whatever the shoe is doing now and totally ignoring shoe history, how about naming it ---

“THE TRIGGER.â€

This sounds interesting than ADNLS, at least on the marketing aspect of your business.

Bk

[ECD]

I started a discussion of the 1,1.5,2 M1.5 (Looped) prog over in the Coffee Talk Lounge and here is an example showing the power of this mild/meek little prog.

I tried to apply the System 40 rules as I understand them. Let me know if you spot mistakes. Started the shoe at hand 6 with F2 because the O/R count was -2 at hand 5. Notice how 2's were LC but I went on Sys40 (4,2) at hand 16. I could have chosen F2 based on the fact that 2's are LC (calling for streak), but the O/R count pointed to Sys40, so I decided to give it a shot. Finally went with F2 at hand 40. Also note the O/R from hand 49-53. That's Neutral signal and I switched to OTB4L.

Anyway, as you can see, this little prog can pack a punch!! As a matter of fact, using the 1,1.5,2 M1.5 looped makes System40A a 2Hi system.

Keith pointed out that you could also use a 2,3,4 M2 (Looped). That would score even higher. I's a good choice playing nickels. Playing 50.00 or 100.00 the 1,1.5,2 would be the ticket.

PJ

Edited January 21, 2011 by ECD

[jerseyslim]

Nice job PJ. I'm just wondering about using the O/R count for deciding to go otb4l due to neutral count. The thing that really made ot work at the point you went to that mode was the fact that 2's were starting to show up and you just had two sets of 2's in a row. If you look back at hand 16-20 the O/R count was stuck in a range just as it was at hands 49-53. You could have made a case for going ot at hand 20 or so but without the 2's it wouldn't have been the best choice. I think something other than o/r counts should be used for deciding to change modes. Probably a clump of 's might be the better reasoning. But I could be missing something here............Jersey

[ECD]

Nice job PJ. I'm just wondering about using the O/R count for deciding to go otb4l due to neutral count. The thing that really made ot work at the point you went to that mode was the fact that 2's were starting to show up and you just had two sets of 2's in a row. If you look back at hand 16-20 the O/R count was stuck in a range just as it was at hands 49-53. You could have made a case for going ot at hand 20 or so but without the 2's it wouldn't have been the best choice. I think something other than o/r counts should be used for deciding to change modes. Probably a clump of 's might be the better reasoning. But I could be missing something here............Jersey

Good observation Jersey....

2's being high is a good OT indicator, and so is a neutral count like -4,-3,-4,-3. Both of these combined are even more reason to go OTB4L.

But, at hand 16-20 even though the O/R count was going back and forth, it was early in the shoe and the O/R was going 2-3-2-3-4 (hands 15-19), so Sys40 was still working as indicated by the score going from 3 to 6.

I like to keep the O/R count because it is so easy and it is a very good Barometer to the trend, but it is just as important to use all the tools we have.

Do you like the prog? It's a 2Hi on steroids.

PJ

Edited January 22, 2011 by ECD

[jerseyslim]

The progression looks fabulous on this shoe. Gotta see how it does on a difficult shoe where you have chops and streaks and chops and streaks. In other words a typical shoe. LOLl Actually this shoe had a little of all these things but it just looks like it flowed easily from one mode to the other without a lot of interruptions in between. It's like as the modes changed, it stayed in that mode long enough to get a real nice return. It seems you didn't have a second thought about why you changed to another mode. But I hope I'm wrong. The other thing that helped in this shoe, and it's something I always like to see, but doesn't happen often enough and that's where you're betting opposites or otb4l and you have 2's as LC. This enables you to go on the run early and avoid all those losing bets waiting to get to 4's. When 4's are LC, it becomes much more difficult playing opposites and otb4l. Usually you get opposites until you reach 4 in a row and then you decide to go otr, and guess what, that's just when it decides to switch to the other side. So you lose 4 bets in a row............Jersey

Edited January 22, 2011 by jerseyslim

[Keith Smith]

You have to win most of your first bets to have any progression that has a ratio of the first bet to the second and third bet less than 100% of the initial bet as in 2,3,4 or 1,1.5,2 because you win little on the second bet and in reality lose the progression if you win the third. The biggest gain is on the first bet. Of course the mandatory 2 bet works well as in reality that is a first bet, If you were winning most of your second bets and not did a mandatory 2nd bet, you wouldn't have done near as well. I think we need to, in addition to tweaking the system for each game, we need to tweak the progression as we go.

I think in essence a mandatory 2nd bet is simply a two bet prog and I think that you would do just a s well to make it a 1 , 1.5 or a 2,3 two bet progression?

What do you think?

My Thoughts.

KS

Edited January 22, 2011 by Keith Smith

[jerseyslim]

A two bet progression opens the door to winning the 1st bet and losing the second bet.

[Keith Smith]

I don't understand what you mean? I didn't mean have a mandatory two then if thats what you are alluding to?

[jerseyslim]

Oh that's what I thought you meant

[TomM]

You have to win most of your first bets to have any progression that has a ratio of the first bet to the second and third bet less than 100% of the initial bet as in 2,3,4 or 1,1.5,2 because you win little on the second bet and in reality lose the progression if you win the third. The biggest gain is on the first bet. Of course the mandatory 2 bet works well as in reality that is a first bet, If you were winning most of your second bets and not did a mandatory 2nd bet, you wouldn't have done near as well. I think we need to, in addition to tweaking the system for each game, we need to tweak the progression as we go.

I think in essence a mandatory 2nd bet is simply a two bet prog and I think that you would do just a s well to make it a 1 , 1.5 or a 2,3 two bet progression?

What do you think?

My Thoughts.

KS

Having used these mild prog's quite abit I agree that you should alter it slightly to follow the shoe. The progression has to follow your intention and the only way that I could do that is to alter it slightly as the shoe unfolded. I am not sure how a static prog will fair over a wide variety of shoe types. But I always find that for my own style of play I have to vary progs... drop down to flat bets when necessary to stay within my comfort zone as well as to try and match my strategy with the appropriate progression for what I am seeing. I'm not sure that makes sense but is all I can manage tonight.

[ECD]

Having used these mild prog's quite abit I agree that you should alter it slightly to follow the shoe. The progression has to follow your intention and the only way that I could do that is to alter it slightly as the shoe unfolded. I am not sure how a static prog will fair over a wide variety of shoe types. But I always find that for my own style of play I have to vary progs... drop down to flat bets when necessary to stay within my comfort zone as well as to try and match my strategy with the appropriate progression for what I am seeing. I'm not sure that makes sense but is all I can manage tonight.

That makes perfect sense Tom.

Thanks

[ECD]

Nice job PJ. I'm just wondering about using the O/R count for deciding to go otb4l due to neutral count. The thing that really made ot work at the point you went to that mode was the fact that 2's were starting to show up and you just had two sets of 2's in a row. If you look back at hand 16-20 the O/R count was stuck in a range just as it was at hands 49-53. You could have made a case for going ot at hand 20 or so but without the 2's it wouldn't have been the best choice. I think something other than o/r counts should be used for deciding to change modes. Probably a clump of 's might be the better reasoning. But I could be missing something here............Jersey

Right, so you are saying do we go by the OR count or do we go by the patterns we are seeing such as 2,2,2 to decide on OTB4L. Both are the same thing. Recognize that a 2 in a row produces a 0 OR count. So does a 1,3. So both TT runs and 131 runs produce a 0 OR count. We say that OTB4L likes 2s, single 1's, and 3's. That is the same as saying OTB4L likes a stagnant OR count.

A column of 2's cancels out the OR count. So does a column of 31313s.

Meanwhile OTB4L does NOT like OR counts moving in either direction. That is the same as saying OTB4L does not like runs of 4 or more either straight or ZZ. Take your pick. One method merely confirms the other. You can't have one W/O the other. Single 1's, 2s and 3s produce a stagnant OR count and both equal OTB4L.

[ECD]

I think the BEST way to design your prog for the shoe at hand is to look at your 123 prog as bet#s 1,2 and 3. Which of the 3 bets are you winning the most and which are you winning the least. First, recognize that a 1, 1.5, 3 is exactly the same as a 234. All you did is change your unit size. Looking at a 123 vs a 234, one is NOT always better than the other. 123 is best when you are winning your 2nd bet more often than your first. Likewise 234 is better when you are winning your 1st bet more than your second. BTW, if you are winning your 3rd bet the most it is time to change systems.

Lets put this in practical terms: Lets say the OR count favors + in a particular shoe so you select our only chop system, 40. Now lets say the OR count continues marching upwards. That's exactly the same as saying the shoe is MOSTLY opposites. System 40 bets MOSTLY opposites so you are MOSTLY going to win your FIRST bet. Therefore it should NOT be a 1. It should be a 2 or a 3. Or, you could leave it at 1 and make your second bet 1.5. Either way puts the emphasis on the bet you are winning the most and de-emphasizes the bet you are losing the most.

This can make for some strange progs: For instance sometimes you'll note that you are usually winning your first bet but when you lose it you also lose your 2nd bet but usually win your third. Think about it. Your prog should be 2,1,2. The 212 prog performs a whole lot better than a 123 and reduces your overall risk at the same time. We seldom talk about a 212 prog but sometimes it can make your day.

Matching your prog to the situation at hand is no small thing. It often separates the winners from the losers. After system selection, prog selection is your most important consideration.

[ECD]

Perhaps this story will help drive my point home. I was staying at the Claridge, A.C. at the time and hit the high stakes room first thing early one morning. No one else was there that early and only one table was open. $100 8 deck BJ, brand new cards - my favorite game. I sat at 3rd base, the best position for NBJ 3rd base play which is the best way to play new cards because new cards are the most random cards you'll see all day. Unlike Bac, NBJ 3rd Base actually prefers random cards. You virtually can't lose. It started well so I immediately went to my highest prog, the 1,4,6.

See, in BJ you seldom win hands in a row so you ALWAYS want to select up as you lose rather than up as you win. And playing 3rd base NBJ in random cards you have a VERY strong tendency to win every other hand. So you want to put all the emphasis on your second bet. High stakes BJ is where I learned the importance of prog design and matching the best prog to the situation at hand. Continuously losing the 1 and winning the 4 is a very good proposition. I play head to head BJ extremely fast and it was no time before I was up 4 piles ($4800) after a one pile $1200 buy in. A spectator, as Thurstle, my son in law, once said, can't even add up the cards that fast to know who won.

Anyway, a well dressed (I notice EVERYTHING) player walked in from the general floor after playing craps all night, immediately saw my 5 piles and immediately sat down at First Base. He must have done well at craps because he had a LOT of money - Which he was going to need. Up as you win may be a good way to play craps but it is usually a horrible way to play BJ. He consistently won his 1 bet and lost his 2 bet. While I consistently lost my 1 bet and won my 4 bet. I did this so consistently that I dropped the 6 bet off the prog altogether and just went with the 1,4. On the very rare occasions that I lost the 1,4 I simply went back to 1. If anything, the game got a little better for me after he got in.

Then on about the 10th time he brought out his wallet he declared: "This is the worst game I've ever been in!" We made eye contact and all I could do is glance back and forth from his eyes to my 18 piles of chips as if to say: "What in hell is wrong with you!" We BOTH won and lost about the same number of hands, winning about 50%. But I'm $20,000 up and he's $10,000 down.

So, next time, before you arbitrarily choose your prog, think about THAT story. The difference between winners and losers is often only the progs you selected. Select the best one!

Edited January 22, 2011 by ECD

[ECD]

So why the $100 tables? Because I was wealthy? Hell no.

One of my players once said, "That is fine for YOU Ellis because you can afford to play the $100 tables. Why don't you play the $5 tables like us?" My reply was: "Sorry but I can't afford them." See , the more cards are played the less random they become. $5 tables get played the most, $100 tables the least. So, why do I play $100 tables? Because they are the easiest to beat.

That should also tell you why I play so early in the day. Bac or BJ, new cards are the best cards you are going to see all day. In BJ they are the most random. In Bac they are the most consistent. It pays to know.

Edited January 22, 2011 by ECD