S40A Manual Q&A

[jerseyslim]

Ellis.........I would think you are better off using the patterns rather than O/R count when you should shift over to otb4l. My reasoning is that if you see a couple of 2's running together it gives you and immediate sign for possibly changing. The O/R count might take a while before it kicks in due to a lag showing up in the count. With the p ttern showing you have immediate reason to change. Now this might be right or wrong but that's why they call this gambling...............Jersey

PS...are we limiting the O/R count to a + or - 3 or do we just let it run. If we're letting it run, it makes change a little more difficult if we're at a +9 or - 9 count.

PSS One thing I've done when playing is record the otb4l circles in red. So then I can see how often these bets are winning.

Right, so you are saying do we go by the OR count or do we go by the patterns we are seeing such as 2,2,2 to decide on OTB4L. Both are the same thing. Recognize that a 2 in a row produces a 0 OR count. So does a 1,3. So both TT runs and 131 runs produce a 0 OR count. We say that OTB4L likes 2s, single 1's, and 3's. That is the same as saying OTB4L likes a stagnant OR count.

A column of 2's cancels out the OR count. So does a column of 31313s.

Meanwhile OTB4L does NOT like OR counts moving in either direction. That is the same as saying OTB4L does not like runs of 4 or more either straight or ZZ. Take your pick. One method merely confirms the other. You can't have one W/O the other. Single 1's, 2s and 3s produce a stagnant OR count and both equal OTB4L.

Edited January 22, 2011 by jerseyslim

[ECD]

Ellis.........I would think you are better off using the patterns rather than O/R count when you should shift over to otb4l. My reasoning is that if you see a couple of 2's running together it gives you and immediate sign for possibly changing. The O/R count might take a while before it kicks in due to a lag showing up in the count. With the p ttern showing you have immediate reason to change. Now this might be right or wrong but that's why they call this gambling...............Jersey

PS...are we limiting the O/R count to a + or - 3 or do we just let it run. If we're letting it run, it makes change a little more difficult if we're at a +9 or - 9 count.

PSS One thing I've done when playing is record the otb4l circles in red. So then I can see how often these bets are winning.

Right Jersey, I seldom keep an actual OR count because it's so obvious and the patterns tell you what you need anyway. Twos, particularly multiple 2's in a row points toward OTB4L while long straight or ZZ runs points away from OTB4L. But I'm about to write the chapter that spells all that out in detail.

[BaCcArAt KiNg]

Regarding the issue on what progression to use, this will all depend on how much you are willing to stake.

Each player, be novice or advanced player in bacc, have different preferences when it comes to bet size.

It is subjective.

Before, I flat bet.

Then, I learned on this forum the different progressions so I used it.

But eventually I returned to flat betting again.

Why?

For me, this is a conservative approach to bet placements.

Baccarat is about winning more decisions than losing.

At the end of each shoe we play, what matter most is the number of correct bets versus the losing bets.

To explain further, take for example progs like 123, 234 or even the 345.

I used this prog before but I realized it has a counterpart on flat betting.

A 123 prog’s counterpart is a 2 unit size per bet , a 234 is a 3 unit size and the 345 is a 4 unit bet size per bet.

It is the same at the end of the shoe but it has a different effect when you are being hit by consecutive losses in a row.

You will see that flat betting is more conservative to use in the long run.

I started flat betting at 1 unit size per bet but now since I have more skills and knowledge about the game I am comfortable at 5 unit size per bet.

This lessens my time on the bacc table leading to a lesser risk of losing a shoe.

My formula is simple.

Less Time on the Bacc Table + Correct Bets = Hitting Your Session Goal.

Btw, my daily session goal is +50 units.

This is only ten correct bets in one session not per shoe.

Let me repeat. 10 correct bets per session.

This is only 1 correct bet per shoe so you need ten shoes to achieve it or 2 correct bets per shoe then you need only 5 shoes or 3 correct shoes then you only need at least 3 shoes and so on.

Easy huh?

It depends on what system you are using.

With the “proper approach/system†and include also your “right mental attitude towards the gameâ€, definitely YES!

After hitting it, no matter what, I’m out.

You will not see my shadow inside the casino.

BK

[jerseyslim]

BK........when flat betting, what is your stop loss in a given shoe? And do you have a stop win in a shoe?................Jersey

[fluppocinonys]

BK, what if you loss that 5 units bet? Do you increase to 10 units on the same shoe or simply look for another table and start with 5 units bet again?

Some days are really that bad or unlucky to lose 3 or 4 bets consecutively even though the shoe history and your system indicate strongly what to bet next, for instance a S40 shoe with P112111, but the moment you started playing, 4 in a row comes out, that would be a devastating loss if your base unit is 5, has this ever happened to you? What would you do?

btw, which casino in SG do you play at? RWS or MBS? I personally think MBS's shoes are totally trendless.

Thanks.

Edited January 25, 2011 by fluppocinonys
format

[BaCcArAt KiNg]

BK, what if you loss that 5 units bet? Do you increase to 10 units on the same shoe or simply look for another table and start with 5 units bet again?

No. Like what I said, I only do flat bet. I do not use progression anymore. My stop/loss is +/- 2.

I leave the bacc table whenever I will be hit by 2 losses in a row.

I now have the luxury of betting a 5-unit bet size coz I am now playing with casino money.

This did not happen overnight.

It takes a lot of discipline, patience and knowledge (skills) of the game to reach my level of play now.

Some days are really that bad or unlucky to lose 3 or 4 bets consecutively even though the shoe history and your system indicate strongly what to bet next, for instance a S40 shoe with P112111, but the moment you started playing, 4 in a row comes out, that would be a devastating loss if your base unit is 5, has this ever happened to you? What would you do?

Yes I understand your situation. I've been there before.

This is the same reason why I am more selective on my bet placements nowadays.

With a 5-unit bet size, I cannot afford to lose 4 losses in a row in one shoe. This is bad play my friend.

Therefore I capped my stop loss to -2.

The problem with betting every hand (deals) is you are exposing yourself to a high risk of losing bets.

Here’s my suggestion.

There are lots of system here on our forum that can give you a +2 unit win.

You can customize your own approach.

Do not limit yourself to just one system.

Maybe you will tell me what if I hit my +2-unit after 10 hands only? Will I quit or continue playing?

Well, this is what I meant by discipline, patience & knowledge of the game.

As for me, I already gave you an idea of what I will do.

btw, which casino in SG do you play at? RWS or MBS? I personally think MBS's shoes are totally trendless.

Thanks.

My favorite is RWS.

Both casino are trendless.

This is the new trend in baccarat --- trendless (multi-trend). Shifting from one trend to another.

BK

[BaCcArAt KiNg]

BK........when flat betting, what is your stop loss in a given shoe? And do you have a stop win in a shoe?................Jersey

+/- 2 win/loss

[ECD]

I think BK's attitude and play style is excellent for the situation he faces. If shoe history is completely meaningless where he plays why would you consider anything other than flat betting?

If a shoe is dependably favoring opposites (a function of the shuffle) by say, 20% it makes perfect sense to make 2 or 3 progressive bets on opposites (S40) because each progressive bet has a greater chance of winning than the last bet.

But if the OR count is meaningless - not favoring +, not favoring -, and not favoring 0. your progressive bets have no more advantage than your first bets so why make them? Flat bet to a modest win and Quit.

I like the idea of keeping your stop loss no more than your stop win. Most players get that wrong and make their stop loss far too high. Then they need 5 winning shoes to make up for one losing shoe. Not good.

Yet most teachers make that same mistake. I recall one scammer saying to a student: "I'm not giving you your money back because you quit before you got to your 89 bet." And its a good thing he did because if he lost the 89 bet or even the 55 bet, he would have lost far more than the system price.

I played a shoe yestersay with Keith on Bet Phoenix where the whole first column was 1's and 2's. So we jump in with S40 with 4s culprit and the damn shoe goes 4,4,4 right then and there. Fortunately it stayed streaky after that so we were able to recup our losses. The next shoe I screwed up. It was a perfect OTB4L shoe but we started F3 because the last shoe was F3. Wrong!

Some days there is no rhyme or reason even on this continent. Those are the flat bet days. But I'm also of the mind that when shoe history IS dependable, go after them because there will be days when it isn't.

[Sir Donald]

Hi Ellis,

Your S40A overview and chapter one was superbly written, and I am sure we are all anxiously awaiting additional chapters.

Could you provide us with an update on your release of additional S40A chapters? Thanks.

Don

[Sir Donald]

MVS,

What is the status of resurrecting the OTB4L manual and sample shoes, as well accompaning threads which were removed?

Ellis has selected OTB4L for the S40A neutral system. Therefore, OTB4L will be very important in starting neutral type shoes when playing S40A, and there is no need to start from scratch if you can recover this material from BTC archives. Thanks.

Don

[ECD]

MVS,

What is the status of resurrecting the OTB4L manual and sample shoes, as well accompaning threads which were removed?

Ellis has selected OTB4L for the S40A neutral system. Therefore, OTB4L will be very important in starting neutral type shoes when playing S40A, and there is no need to start from scratch if you can recover this material from BTC archives. Thanks.

Don

I mentioned the possibility of doing this and that is fine but the S40A manual needs a more streamlined rendition of the OTB4L rules anyway as they apply to S40A. While I'm at it I'll redo the S40 and F2,3 rules as well. That is really not that big a task. Also I might be able to transfer most of it from Keith's S40A manual.

Right now I'm doing the chapter on how to glean the right system from the tote board (or scorecard) on my word processor which is the real meat of the whole manual and the source of our advantage. I'm finding that most members still can't make heads or tails of a tote board and end up playing the wrong system too often. This chapter will leave no doubt as to which system to play at your selected table as well as the best way to select the best table in the first place.

Edited March 6, 2011 by ECD

[Baccarat A]

Tomorrow, tomorrow...and tomorrow never comes.

OK, I’ll post what I’ve got to give you some reading material and start in again tomorrow.

Last edited by E. Clifton Davis; 03-07-2011 at 02:09 PM.

[ECD]

Well most of the manual is posted and the component system rules are posted several times. Yet I never got a single question or comment on what has been posted. This tells me two things: Those who understand it didn't need a manual in the first place since all has already been posted. And those who don't understand enough to formulate a question, the manual won't help. Therefore as I've already mentioned I'm working on a different more simplified teaching approach.

Here, I have changed the names of the approach and the component systems and given them new names much more descriptive of there function and purpose. This makes the whole approach easier to explain and easier to understand with far briefer wording. I posted this all the day before yesterday but then Keith accidentally deleted it. So I'm now starting all over.

But I also posted a way to play RD1 that makes it better and conforms to the way we play the other three component systems. This would clear the way to put RD1 back under the S40A umbrella. I then asked the question should we do this? I never received a single response from anyone. I think I know how Old Dealer feels.

Then I posted a way YOUR (BKs) approach could actually be played wherein the player would know exactly when and where to bet. Because if he doesn't, further discussion is pretty much useless. Again, no response from anyone.

This new simplified manual will be in a thread called "S40A Revealed". It is also for public consumption so I'll tell you the new names here in the private forum.

S40 A will now be called The NOR Approach.

N = Neutral

O = Opposites

R = Repeats

S40 will now be called OP 3-4

OP stands for bet opposites and the 3-4 tells you to go OTR after a 3 or 4 in a row depending on your SAP count. between 3s and 4 or mores.

SAP will be simplified to EC for Events Count

F2,3 will now be SS 2-3 Bet the Strong Side until you have either a 2 or 3 on the other side depending on your EC between 2s and 3s on the weak side.

OTB4L will now be OTB4L 4-5 = Bet OTB4L and go OTR after a 4 or 5 depending on your EC between 4s and 5 or mores.

NOR will be as short and sweet as possible. It will be posted on both the public and private forums but the private forum version will also contain the Component system rules condensed to 2 or 3 sentences and will also contain a Q & A thread.

There is a one column example played with all 3 component systems to demonstrate the importance of system selection. I'll also play the Right component system betting both U1D2 M2 and 345 loop to demonstrate the importance of betting strategy selection.

Guys, I don't know how to explain it any simpler or plainer than that. If you understand the concept fine but if you don't, that is what the Q&A thread is for.

Edited March 21, 2011 by ECD

[kipwon]

Hi Ellis:

I am one of those don't understand the manual very well and newbies also. I have the simple questions about system OTB4L and system RD1...I really don't know how or when to use them eventhrough I read some of the treads. BTW with the NOR I know I will be much better Bac player.

Thank you for spending your time to create the NOR to help us.

Kip

[ECD]

Very much appreciated Kip. The concepts are really simple. But language barriers are not so simple. We'll find a way to get it all across to everyone.

[Pamela Conkey]

Hi Ellis, you mentioned that no one was interested in the table selection angle. Well I would like to see as much info as possible on the subject,

as a matter of fact I'd like to have as much info as possible on the whole system. Thanks, Brian.

[ECD]

You got it Brian! I think table selection is one of the strongest Baccarat weapons we have. Unfortunately guys get used to not having it when they play on line and I think they tend to forget about it.

I'm getting excellent phone call reviews on the NOR approach of teaching S40A esp from seasoned members. I know it is a bit of a hassle at first getting used to the new terms but I think there will be good dividends in the future both from a teaching perspective and from a learning perspective.

I'm trying to put my finger on just what the problem is with learning this approach. I'm wondering if I should start a new NOR terminology glossary??? I never had this problem before with guys not understanding a manual. Maybe it's just because we have a bigger % of foreign language students these days.

[Sir Donald]

Ellis,

I am puzzled by your comment regarding the difficulty that guys were having in understanding the S40A manual. I thought your completed chapter material was very well written and quite easy to comprehend. The vast amount of detailed info. was absolutely superb and your chapter outline for future chapters extremely ambitious.

Don

[ECD]

Ellis,

I am puzzled by your comment regarding the difficulty that guys were having in understanding the S40A manual. I thought your completed chapter material was very well written and quite easy to comprehend. The vast amount of detailed info. was absolutely superb and your chapter outline for future chapters extremely ambitious.

Don

Thanks Don. I'll continue with both teaching aides. I think it is mostly language barrier but I'm concerned that some just don't seem to get the big picture of how and why this new approach works overall. It makes it tough to teach the details when a student doesn't see how or why the details fit the approach. It is easier to understand WHAT we do when you have a clear picture of why we do them. That is what I'm trying to accomplish with this new NOR mini manual.