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NOR Questions & Answers by E. Clifton Davis and Various ECD Players March 11, 2011


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Guys, I'm somewhat shocked that I got no other questions on the 3 sets of system rules.

Does this mean I explained them so well that there are no questions?

Or does it mean I explained them so poorly nobody can formulate a question???

Or maybe you couldn't find the rules??? They are in the NOR Approach thread.

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Here is the game played S40 -3 U1D2 M2. The scores in the last col. didn't quite make it in the frame but we can all add. The final acore at Play 61 was +28 for the second time. Next we will post the same shoe again played S40 -3 but with the 345 loop.

Edited by Ellis
You can tell the winners and honest players by how many times they admit they lost 
not by how many times they say they won.

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https://m.me/beatthecasinodotcom

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Hi Ellis;

What are the different between a single 1's ( sporadic 1's ) and a double 1's ? In OTB4L rule of ZZ run , you wrote: " All we need to know is are 1's mostly appearing as single 1's ( sporadic 1's ) or are they mostly appearing in double 1's. Please give us the sample . Thank You.

Kip

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Hi,

I encountered a rather complicated shoe to me today. It started off with OR count of positive then turn into - ve at the end.....

I was confuse whether should I change system once I see a negative and change back to S40 when I see a positive......

In this shoe I started off with S40 at play #6 and I change to F2 at play # 31 and change to OTB4L at play #36 then I was very confuse..... and only goes to F2 in play 53 and the shoe ends there.

(Our Casino uses a 6 Decks only so the shoe ends roughly in 60 plays or so including ties)

post-3714-14500261383325_thumb.jpg

post-3714-14500261383634_thumb.jpg

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Hi Ellis;

What are the different between a single 1's ( sporadic 1's ) and a double 1's ? In OTB4L rule of ZZ run , you wrote: " All we need to know is are 1's mostly appearing as single 1's ( sporadic 1's ) or are they mostly appearing in double 1's. Please give us the sample . Thank You.

Kip

Kip, in the shoe Keith posted below:

Play 36 is a single 1

Play 8 & 9 is a double 1

Play 43 44 45 is a triple 1

A sporadic 1 is a single 1, same thing.

The way I write, whenever I put sometning in ( ) such as single 1 (sporadic 1) , what is in the ( ) defines the term before it. In other words I put definitions in parenthesis.

The significance of sporadic 1's is that most mechanical systems lose to the sporadic 1's which is the kiss of death for such systems. That is why for NOR, I selected 3 systems that do NOT lose to the sporadic 1's.

With OTB4L both modes beat Sporadic 1's automatically. But only Mode 3 beats double 1's W/O having to go OTR. Triple 1's always forces OTB4L to go OTR so OTB4L does not particularly like triple 1's. Mode 2 beats triple but Mode 3 loses to triple 1's. Mode 3 beats double 1's but Mode 2 doesn't.

So with OTB4L be can decide which mode is best by watching what 1's are doing. BOTH Modes beat single (sporadic) 1's so for OTB4L we like to see our 1's coming 1 at a time. But if they are coming in doubles, we play Mode 3 against them. Just as, if they are coming in singles or triples we play Mode 2.

This is why we say OTB4L likes 1's below normal. Usually when 1's are below normal, they come one at a time which Both Modes of OTB4L beats. So, in general we say OTB4L does not like 1's. It likes 2s and 3s. So, low 1's with high 2s and 3s = OTB4L.

All of this sounds complex right now but will become obvious with a little OTB4L practice.

Edited by ECD
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Hi,

I encountered a rather complicated shoe to me today. It started off with OR count of positive then turn into - ve at the end.....

I was confuse whether should I change system once I see a negative and change back to S40 when I see a positive......

In this shoe I started off with S40 at play #6 and I change to F2 at play # 31 and change to OTB4L at play #36 then I was very confuse..... and only goes to F2 in play 53 and the shoe ends there.

(Our Casino uses a 6 Decks only so the shoe ends roughly in 60 plays or so including ties)

Actually you did very well! I particularly like the way you elected to go to F in the middle of a run.

You made ONE beginner mistake. In a struggling shoe like this one, RETREAT. Reduce your goal to +10. You should have quit at play 43. Also, you should have gone OTR at play 51.

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OK, let's take Vin's shoe S40-3 345 loop and do a play by play. We are doing the last shoe posted before this post.

It would be good if you would make yourself a copy of this shoe to refer to as you are reading this play by play.

Normally we would make our col's 20 plays long. We used 16 only to match the way Vin originally posted this shoe. We prefer 20 play cols. because some of our cash mgt. is based on 20 play cols.

Let's set the scene first: Why are we playing S40 and why are we betting the 345 loop. Next, why are we going 3 losing bets (Mode 3) before going OTR (On The Run)?

We are playing S40 because as I had guessed and as Vin confirmed, the prior shoes at this table were very choppy. This is what we call a Table Bias as opposed to a Shoe Bias. Table Biases are extremely common and offer us our best opportunities. Bac, like BJ is a game of opportunities. The whole object is finding and playing the best opportunity (the most biased table) in the casino. This is the single most important factor to beating Baccarat consistently. In this particular shoe, the OR count hit +11 4 times! We call a count hitting or surpassing 8 in either direction a super shoe. Super shoes offer the greatest opportunities in Baccarat. They are virtually impossible to lose playing NOR. For US that is. Most of the other players at the table will STILL find a way to lose this shoe.

We are betting the 345 loop because we are winning the first bet of our prog more often than we are losing it. This happened the last shoe at this table and is happening again this shoe. (very common). In the first col of this shoe we win the first bet of our prog 7 times and lose it 3 times - a definite 345 situation.

Why are we playing Mode 3?

First we always start in Mode 3 unless something at the table has signaled us to start Mode 2. (Very rare)

From there we stay in Mode 3 until there is a 4 or more. At that point we note which there were more of 3s or 4+s. In this case there were 4 3s at the point of the first 4+ telling us to STAY in Mode 3. In this shoe 4+s NEVER exceed 3s so we end up playing Mode 3 all the way. Had 4+s exceeded 3s we would have switched to Mode 2 (2 losing bets before going OTR) but they never even came close.

We start at play 2. We already know we are at a good table and we already know what system we are going to play. We don't know the Mode yet but we don't need to know the Mode to start the shoe. We are going to start by betting an opposite (bet opposite the side of the prior circle). At play 1 there is no prior circle so the earliest we can start is play 2. We already know we are going to bet the 345 loop so our fist bet is 3 on B at play 2 because B is opposite the first circle at play 1.

We win so we STAY at 3 and bet 3 on P at play 3. We win again so we stay at 3 on oposite until we lose our 3 at play 7. The 345 loop is up 1 when you lose so our bet is 4 at play 8. We make our 4 bet on P because P is opposite the last circle. We win so we go back to 3. The OTB4L loop always goes ro 3 when it wins. We bet the 4 at play 8 on opposite because S40 ALWAYS goes at least 2 bets on opposites. Mode 3 goes 3 bets on Opposites and we always start S40 in Mode 3.

All goes fine until we lose the 3 and the 4 at plays 11 and 12. So we go 1 up and bet our highest bet of 5 at play 13 on opposite because we are in Mode 3. We win so we go back to 3 on opposites. (All winning bets go to 3 in the 345 loop. The same darn thing happens and we lose our 3,4 and win our 5 against the 3 in a row at play 16. This will always happen with S40-3 against a 3 that stays 3.

So we continue along repeating the same procedure and find ourselves at +30 at play 25. +30 is our goal with the 345 loop regardless of the system or Mode. Now, had we been playing cols of 20 we would have seen that we hit +30 in the top half of the second col. That is where we draw the line. Had we hit our +30 in the bottom half of the 2nd col or any time after that, we would quit with +30. BUT since it was the top half we decide to keep on trucking. (This gives you some idea of why we use 20 play cols.)

We hit +40 at play 30, still the upper half of the 2nd col so we keep on trucking and hit +40 again at play 39. Once we are above our goal of +30 we ALWAYS quit when we hit our highest score the second time. THIS is almost always a good move.

And sure enough, had we stayed in the shoe we would have immediately lost our 345 prog at plays 40, 41 and 42. But this demonstrates the power as well as the safety of the 345 loop. If we stay in the shoe we lose our entire prog twice but still manage a +32 at play 61.

OK, I would like you to play the shoe all the way to play 61 so you can see a couple OTR bets. One we lose and one we win.

OK we lose our 345 against the first 4 (third col.) We go OTR with our 3 bet right under the 4 at play 43 but we lose our 3 so we go right back to opposites and win our 4 at play 44,

We also lose our prog against the 7 in a row. So we bet our 3 on the 5th circle of the 7 (Mode 3) and win it. So we go right back off the run and REPEAT our 3 bet AGAINST the run. As it turns out in this particular case we would have been slightly better off to stay on the run. BUT the question is, how many 7s do you see esp. in choppy shoes. We essentially bet the run will only go 5 because there are twice as many 5s as 6s. Then there are twice as many 6s as 7s. We do OK against the 7. It would have taken an 8 to really hurt us and we would have STILL won the shoe very nicely. How many 8s do you see in choppy shoes??? Had the first 5 circles of that 7 turned the count to minus we could have bet twice on the run. But it didn't. At the point we decided to bet AGAINST the 6th circle of the run the OR count was still +7. Opposite was the right bet even though we lost it.

Now, every bet in this shoe was highly definitive. There were no close calls. So every bet should be plain to see. Now, what are your questions?

Edited by ECD
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One question that came up in that shoe is when we win our OTR bet at play 52. Now the question is do we stay OTR for one more bet or do we bet against the run immediately???

While staying OTR for only one bet is standard practice with NOR for both S40 and OTB4L, I think that going by the OR count will give us the best hit rate.

In 40S a + count means that Opposite bets have an advantage. A - count means that Repeat bets have an advantage. With OTB4L it's just the opposite.

Therefore I think that when playing OTB4L since we went OTR one play later we should always stay OTR for only one bet. With OTB4L the favored bet is that the count will go toward 0. That means we are almost always favoring betting against the run.

But with S40 once we make a successful OTR bet I think if the OR count is - at that point we stay OTR for 2 bets but no more than that. If the OR count is plus we always stay OTR for one bet only. I think that makes the best sense. Does everybody see that? Are their any opposing opinions?

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I've got a couple of questions about OTB4L. First I don't understand the logic of "ALL we need to know is are 1's mostly appearing as single 1's (sporadic 1's) = Mode 2; or are they mostly appearing in double 1's = Mode 3. Again, Mode 2 = 2 losing bets before OTR and Mode 3 = 3 losing bets before OTR." It seems to me that if we are seeing mostly double 1's that as soon as we see a confirmed 1 that we should go OTR for 1 bet.

Secondly at the end of the posting you say"BUT, if I have been seeing some surprise long runs at that table I may opt to make that second bet right back on the run again and then bet on off on off until the run ends." Does the word "off" in the term on off mean against or skip a bet?

BTW Ellis, I think that the NOR Approach postings are excellent!

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I've got a couple of questions about OTB4L. First I don't understand the logic of "ALL we need to know is are 1's mostly appearing as single 1's (sporadic 1's) = Mode 2; or are they mostly appearing in double 1's = Mode 3. Again, Mode 2 = 2 losing bets before OTR and Mode 3 = 3 losing bets before OTR." It seems to me that if we are seeing mostly double 1's that as soon as we see a confirmed 1 that we should go OTR for 1 bet.

Secondly at the end of the posting you say"BUT, if I have been seeing some surprise long runs at that table I may opt to make that second bet right back on the run again and then bet on off on off until the run ends." Does the word "off" in the term on off mean against or skip a bet?

BTW Ellis, I think that the NOR Approach postings are excellent!

Ha, that is not an illogical thought at all! In fact, if you were playing OTB4L as a stand alone system and you were getting a lot of double 1's and ZZ runs, it would be a very good idea to get on those ZZs as early as possible and then, since you got on so early, stay on them until you lose.

With NOR however, we must discipline out thinking to always consider our 3 system options rather than put all our marbles in a one system basket. If we were seeing many double 1's and ZZ runs, we would not have selected OTB4L in the first place. OTB4L HATES 1's. Both S40 and F2,3 LOVE 1's whether single or multiple. We chose OTB4L due to a lack of 1's - less than one every 4 plays so that is the condition we face.

When I said "all we need to know" it would have been clearer if I said "all we need to know to determine our optimum Mode for ZZs is whether the few 1's we ARE seeing are coming in singles or doubles. Singles = Mode 2 and doubles = Mode 3. 3 or more 1's in a row = a different system, either F or 40.

Also with OTB4L, recognize that we can easily be in 2 Modes at the same time. We can be in one Mode against ZZs and the other Mode against Straight runs. So we need to be alert to what is happening with BOTH Straight and ZZs.

OK, lets take a look at "on and off". Some casinos both real and on line have a propensity for surprise long runs. Bodog for instance! They just keep doing that. Just yesterday they suddenly had an 8,7,5 right in the middle of the chopiest shoe you ever saw - a col and a half of 1's and 2s only, then 8,7,5!

This can also happen in real casinos esp with old cards (night time play) when we get a long straight run in the chopiest of shoes. Once we see this a time or two we have every right to be hesitant to jump off a run after just 1 or 2 OTR bets as the NOR rules call for. In this circumstance, the rules seem suicidal and they may well be.

But staying ON the run until we lose is NOT our only option. Our other option is on, against, on, against. Recognize that as soon as we say stay OTR until we lose we are forcing a lost bet. BUT, if we say on, against, on, against, we have a good chance of winning both bets when the run ends. Yes, we might get wrong footed and lose but at least we didn't PLAN to lose. Yes off means against.

BTW, in this situation you might think to drop your M2 OR better yet, flat bet at 2 and then go back to 1 when and if you lose. Just one more trick of the trade.

And, BTW, thanks for the kind words! Sometimes I wonder if anyone is actually reading all that stuff.

Edited by ECD
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Ellis,

Your NOR approach is superb and right on target, but please post more sample shoes illustrating various system concepts. The NOR manual may not be published for awhile.......and it is vital that sample shoes are posted now to provide continuity and clarity for system techniques and concepts.

Also, would appreciate an article on how to keep from being barred while playing baccarat and stories about current full time players. Thanks.

Don

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All this knowledge is great! Thanks Ellis!

I agree with Sir Donald, I would love to see more samples shoes so I can make sure I am still on the right track and playing the shoes as they should be played. Keep up the fantastic knowledge transfer and please let's see more examples.

Jim

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Right, I think I need to make Sir Donald the head of the steering committee. I didn't get any questions on the game and play by play I recently posted, I think on this thread. I'm hoping that means that the play by play left no questions. Or, is that too much to hope for???

I've got some temporary equipment problems I need to get straightened out to post shoes. I'm planning a week in PA to play with Keith come Thursday. I need to keep my hand in you know. Have to practice what I teach. Don't want certain people accusing me of being a has been.

Edited by ECD
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Id also like to see more sample shoes... Losing shoes, system changing shoes, etc. Shoes covering all possible situations both good and bad please.

OK and I think it important to discuss what each of the 3 systems lose to.

First, our shoe from hell is a shoe that starts by strongly favoring one system such as extreme chop. So we start with S40 just in time to hit a 4 in a row and we switch to F just in time to hit a 2 on the wrong side followed by a 1,2. Had we stuck with 40 we would have survived but just barely.

We should have a rule that says if you start out and lose the 1,2, you should go back to 1. But as soon as you do that you could miss a winning 3 bet that would have put you even.

This can usually be avoided by taking the time to find the best table in the first place.

The problem with waiting too long to start is you can easily miss the good part and start just in time to hit the bad part.

Like ALL systems each of our three NOR systems has a losing pattern if you are in the wrong mode.

S40-2 loses to a 3,4 assuming you switch to Mode 3 after the 3 in a row. We can expect a 3,4 once every 4 shoes.

S40-3 loses to a 4,3 again assuming that you switch modes after the 4. And again, once every 4 shoes

OTB4L-2 loses to a 4,4; Once every 8 shoes.

OTB4L-3 loses to a 5,4; Once every 16 shoes.

F2 loses to a 2 on the wrong side followed by a 1,2; once every 2 shoes

F3 loses to a 3 on the wrong side followed by a 1,2; once every 4 shoes

One of the reasons I dropped RD1 from NOR is that it has even shorter losing patterns. The other reason was duplication.

On the other hand, the reason I selected these particular 3 systems for NOR is that they have the longest losing patterns and therefore will hit them the least often.

Also, their losing patterns are the most contrary to the shoe type they call for.

There is nothing we can do about the losing patterns. That is the bad news. The good news is we don't hit them as often as you would expect because they occur even less using our system selection process.

Also to do us harm, they must occur early in the shoe. Later in the shoe our cash mgt would have us quit before they could do us any real harm.

This all goes to show you that there is a lot more to system design than meets the eye.

Perhaps you can see why I take all new system designers with a grain of salt as least at first.

Maverick, for instance, left himself completely exposed to the MOST common shoe type as I'm sure some of you know by now.

BK is just a question of time before he loses seven bets in a row. This eventually happens to all Bac players no matter how they select their bet placement. The fact that you went home between bets doesn't change the math whatsoever. The cards don't know what day it is. Nor do they care.

Edited by ECD
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  • 2 weeks later...

Hi Keith & Ellis,

I'm really glad to hear of your success at the Sands. I think I speak for a lot of us here when I say, please, please post those shoes. I would really love to have some shoes to be able to use them to compare how I think they should be played with my interpretation of the rules vs the correct way. Ha Ha, which I hope is the same way! If there is a problem posting the shoes, I would be glad to help out by posting the shoes from your list of bets, just let me know and send me the info.

Thanks,

Jim

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This is great! Thanks for posting these shoes. I would like to discuss the Hollywood 1 shoe with you Ellis. I'm not sure where to put this question and I also put it in the thread with the Hollywood 1 shoe that Keith posted. I have attempted to attach it here for reference.

Since you started in play 2 with S40 I presume that the history had indicated chop. Next when you suddenly switch from a 1 bet to a 3 bet and go to the 3 4 5 loop I presume it was because you were in a nice ZZ pattern when you bet the first 3 in play 5. I don't understand the score jumping from +3 to +9 when you win the 3 bet though. Was that perhaps a mistake?

Down in the last play in column 1 I don't understand going from a 4 bet to a 6 bet.

Then in the 7th play of the 2nd column you suddenly went from a 4 win down to a 2 bet instead of continuing with the 3 4 5 loop. Then it seems to be a 2 4 progression for a few plays and then all at once there is a 3 bet thrown in. I not arguing the merits of what was done, I'm just trying to understand it. It may have just been what felt right at the time but I was wondering if a little explanation would benefit all of us that are trying to learn. All in all, great job and great result and Thanks so much for sharing it!

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Ellis.

At the risk of being designated to head your steering committee, I am requesting ( actually begging )that you seriously consider your next NOR Approach chapter to include sample games that illustrate all the NOR concepts and switching techniques. The timing for this material is ripe and will absolutely assist all of us in mastering the NOR approach.

Just a few properly selected sample games with appropriate play by play notations can often be the equivalent of reams of printed pages, as it is frequently difficult to articulate detailed rules and concepts with the same precision as annotated shoe examples. Thanks and keep up the great teaching.

Don

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Ellis.

At the risk of being designated to head your steering committee, I am requesting ( actually begging )that you seriously consider your next NOR Approach chapter to include sample games that illustrate all the NOR concepts and switching techniques. The timing for this material is ripe and will absolutely assist all of us in mastering the NOR approach.

Just a few properly selected sample games with appropriate play by play notations can often be the equivalent of reams of printed pages, as it is frequently difficult to articulate detailed rules and concepts with the same precision as annotated shoe examples. Thanks and keep up the great teaching.

Don

OK: I'm thinking I recently did a play by play on, I think, OTB4l perhaps on an OTB4L thread. I mentioned your request to Keith and he was shocked that the 14 shoes posted didn't do the trick since we played all 3 systems. I'm also thinking that it must be the Modes that are the most confusing. This could be my fault because I changed the terminology sort of mid stream.

I notice you reference OTB4L: That one is the hardest because you can easily be in 2 Modes at the same time such as Mode 3 on straight runs and Mode 2 on ZZs. Is that right? I don't see a lot of questions on the shoes we posted so I'm thinking that everyone is understanding F and 40. Is that right? Or is it everyone is too dumbfounded to formulate a question???

A little feedback would help me pinpoint any problem areas.

Edited by Guest
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OK: I'm thinking I recently did a play by play on, I think, OTB4l perhaps on an OTB4L thread. I mentioned your request to Keith and he was shocked that the 14 shoes posted didn't do the trick since we played all 3 systems. I'm also thinking that it must be the Modes that are the most confusing. This could be my fault because I changed the terminology sort of mid stream.

I notice you reference OTB4L: That one is the hardest because you can easily be in 2 Modes at the same time such as Mode 3 on straight runs and Mode 2 on ZZs. Is that right? I don't see a lot of questions on the shoes we posted so I'm thinking that everyone is understanding F and 40. Is that right? Or is it everyone is too dumbfounded to formulate a question???

A little feedback would help me pinpoint any problem areas.

Posting all the shoes was a great start! The only thing missing is a play by play notation. That would help tremendously! I try to play the shoe and compare my play to your play but when my play is different than yours I sometimes don't know why mine is different when I think I am playing by the same rules. If there was a notation that told me why you made the play that you made then I would be able to understand where I made my mistake. Once again though, Thanks so much for posting the shoes and congratulations on your success. It really gives all of us a lot of hope that we can be successful as well if we just play the rules correctly!

Best Regards,

Jim

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OK: I'm thinking I recently did a play by play on, I think, OTB4l perhaps on an OTB4L thread. I mentioned your request to Keith and he was shocked that the 14 shoes posted didn't do the trick since we played all 3 systems. I'm also thinking that it must be the Modes that are the most confusing. This could be my fault because I changed the terminology sort of mid stream.

I notice you reference OTB4L: That one is the hardest because you can easily be in 2 Modes at the same time such as Mode 3 on straight runs and Mode 2 on ZZs. Is that right? I don't see a lot of questions on the shoes we posted so I'm thinking that everyone is understanding F and 40. Is that right? Or is it everyone is too dumbfounded to formulate a question???

A little feedback would help me pinpoint any problem areas.

Ellis – since you asked for feedback, here are my thoughts.

New terminology for the systems & modes was confusing to me esp with OTB4L having OTR for both zz & straight – can you revert to the old simpler terminology?

More importantly can you provide a NOR Cheat Sheet – a 1- to 2-page sort of pocket guide we can use for quick reference, & to study your recent shoes. It may contain something like:

Game start (with factory pre-shuffled cards)

- Wait X hands, or until O/R count is X or at least one-third of # of hands before table bet;

- Start with (F, S40, OTB4L) where OR count is X;

- Check overlay to confirm before starting table bet & thereafter every (10?) hands or after every 2 losses to confirm/change system;

Progression

- Start with flat bet until score is +X, then go with 112, until +X, then 234, 345, u1d2, u1d1 etc;

- If score hits –X, go with 012 etc or change system etc, or suspend or quit shoe.

Quit when:

- Score hits –8? with (type of progression)

- Score hits +x with (type of prog);

- Half decade MM

- Or at play (50?) with +x;

- etc

The above is just for illustrative purpose only & is in no way binding or conclusive.

Over to you Ellis.

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OK: I'm thinking I recently did a play by play on, I think, OTB4l perhaps on an OTB4L thread. I mentioned your request to Keith and he was shocked that the 14 shoes posted didn't do the trick since we played all 3 systems. I'm also thinking that it must be the Modes that are the most confusing. This could be my fault because I changed the terminology sort of mid stream.

I notice you reference OTB4L: That one is the hardest because you can easily be in 2 Modes at the same time such as Mode 3 on straight runs and Mode 2 on ZZs. Is that right? I don't see a lot of questions on the shoes we posted so I'm thinking that everyone is understanding F and 40. Is that right? Or is it everyone is too dumbfounded to formulate a question???

A little feedback would help me pinpoint any problem areas.

Many members are asking for posting of more shoes and I totally agree with this. But before you do this please consider doing the chapter on money management first. The Sands and Hollywood shoes that you posted made me realize I understand how to play the 3 Nor Systems but am totally lacking in knowledge of how to bet the money. You have explained many different progressions and I understand each one but do not know when to us them.

If you did the chapter on money management first then you could post some shoes showing us which system and mode to play and which progression to use. Also when to switch systems and when to switch progressions.

Your humble student.

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