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NOR Questions & Answers by E. Clifton Davis and Various ECD Players March 11, 2011


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I notice you reference OTB4L: That one is the hardest because you can easily be in 2 Modes at the same time such as Mode 3 on straight runs and Mode 2 on ZZs. Is that right? I don't see a lot of questions on the shoes we posted so I'm thinking that everyone is understanding F and 40. Is that right? Or is it everyone is too dumbfounded to formulate a question???

A little feedback would help me pinpoint any problem areas.

Ellis,

I'm pretty sure most readers have the F2/F3 and Sys40 plays down pretty well. What I'm thinking is that the miscellaneous "modes" may have triggered an unexpected flurry of questions when they showed up without fanfare!

The overlay seems to be self-explanatory but I've been wrong more than once, so don't take what I'm saying as gospel!

In my own case, I think I've got a handle on the OTB4L "modes" but will need more practice to get them to flow nicely AND then be able to drop the overlay mode on it!

More practice and more work for sure.

Thanks for listening.

MVS

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Here is some additional feedback based on my perspective.

We appreciate your effort in posting the 14 shoes, but they contained only general comments, rather than a step by step, play by play analysis of your thought process for making each decision.

In my opinion, there is no substitute for carefully selected sample shoes that illustrate NOR concepts, switching techniques, system overlap and false indicators.

Would appreciate more focus placed on the following areas of NOR :

1) FALSE INDICATORS. These can appear at any point within the shoe, but recognizing these are particularly important during the first 20 hands of the shoe.

2) SYSTEM OVERLAP. The 3 NOR systems have considerable overlap in that all can beat a certain percentage of shoes. While this is a huge advantage, it is also a challenge that we face in selecting the very BEST system for the shoe at hand.

3) SYSTEM OVERLAY. While simple in concept......not so easy in a casino environment. Developing this ability would be invaluable.!!

More ideas and suggestions later. Thanks, Ellis.

Don

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Here is some additional feedback based on my perspective.

We appreciate your effort in posting the 14 shoes, but they contained only general comments, rather than a step by step, play by play analysis of your thought process for making each decision.

In my opinion, there is no substitute for carefully selected sample shoes that illustrate NOR concepts, switching techniques, system overlap and false indicators.

Would appreciate more focus placed on the following areas of NOR :

1) FALSE INDICATORS. These can appear at any point within the shoe, but recognizing these are particularly important during the first 20 hands of the shoe.

2) SYSTEM OVERLAP. The 3 NOR systems have considerable overlap in that all can beat a certain percentage of shoes. While this is a huge advantage, it is also a challenge that we face in selecting the very BEST system for the shoe at hand.

3) SYSTEM OVERLAY. While simple in concept......not so easy in a casino environment. Developing this ability would be invaluable.!!

More ideas and suggestions later. Thanks, Ellis.

Don

OK, got it. Yes, play by plays are probably the most beneficial to the most people. Keith has promised to work with me on this. I'll give him shoes to post and then do the play by plays. Right now I'm a little inundated with questions on the Bac, the BJ and the public forums at the same time. When it rains it pours plus I'm having a hard time getting rid of this darn flu.

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Ellis,

I'm pretty sure most readers have the F2/F3 and Sys40 plays down pretty well. What I'm thinking is that the miscellaneous "modes" may have triggered an unexpected flurry of questions when they showed up without fanfare!

The overlay seems to be self-explanatory but I've been wrong more than once, so don't take what I'm saying as gospel!

In my own case, I think I've got a handle on the OTB4L "modes" but will need more practice to get them to flow nicely AND then be able to drop the overlay mode on it!

More practice and more work for sure.

Thanks for listening.

MVS

Right, I've been playing these two exact modes regardless of what we choose to call them for so many years that I forget that this is the first time many of our newest guys have ever heard mention of modes. And they are crucial to winning play!

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Right, I've been playing these two exact modes regardless of what we choose to call them for so many years that I forget that this is the first time many of our newest guys have ever heard mention of modes. And they are crucial to winning play!

Ellis,

When considering going OTR for OTB4L, specifically ZZ runs, you mentioned that one could be in one mode for straight runs and another mode for ZZ runs.

For straight runs, we're looking at 4's or 5's ( 2 losing bets or 3 losing bets) before going OTR, but in ZZ runs, 2112, that would be a ZZ run of 4, can you expand on that? A question I have is, are we keeping SAP counts of ZZ runs seperate from straight runs?

For example, PBBBBPBBBP or P14131 the SAP count would read at the first OP 1 0 0 0, at the second OP 1 0 0 8, at the third OP 2 0 0 8, the forth OP 2 0 4 8, and the last OP would be 3 0 4 8.

IF a ZZ run followed that list of events, for example: P141312112112 how would you score those ZZ runs?

Al

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Hi Ellis,

A couple of the finer points I’m stuck on. You may have covered them, but I can’t find the answers in my notes.

Could you please tell me how I should bet, playing OTB4L, in these circumstances.

1. For streaks, early in the shoe when we have no 4s or 5+s. Mode 2 or 3?

2. Later in the shoe when 4s and 5+s are tied?

3. Are ZZs basically played the same way?

For F2,3 I have been starting with F2 until I get some SAP counts. After that I check the history of the opposite side (and the SAP count) before deciding whether to play F2 or F3. This usually helps me make a decision. Am I doing it about right?

But, if the history is inconclusive what is the preferred play, F2 or F3? No bet?

Thank you,

res

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Hi Ellis,

A couple of the finer points I’m stuck on. You may have covered them, but I can’t find the answers in my notes.

Could you please tell me how I should bet, playing OTB4L, in these circumstances.

1. For streaks, early in the shoe when we have no 4s or 5+s. Mode 2 or 3?

2. Later in the shoe when 4s and 5+s are tied?

3. Are ZZs basically played the same way?

For F2,3 I have been starting with F2 until I get some SAP counts. After that I check the history of the opposite side (and the SAP count) before deciding whether to play F2 or F3. This usually helps me make a decision. Am I doing it about right?

But, if the history is inconclusive what is the preferred play, F2 or F3? No bet?

Thank you,

res

Ellis,

When considering going OTR for OTB4L, specifically ZZ runs, you mentioned that one could be in one mode for straight runs and another mode for ZZ runs.

For straight runs, we're looking at 4's or 5's ( 2 losing bets or 3 losing bets) before going OTR, but in ZZ runs, 2112, that would be a ZZ run of 4, can you expand on that? A question I have is, are we keeping SAP counts of ZZ runs seperate from straight runs?

For example, PBBBBPBBBP or P14131 the SAP count would read at the first OP 1 0 0 0, at the second OP 1 0 0 8, at the third OP 2 0 0 8, the forth OP 2 0 4 8, and the last OP would be 3 0 4 8.

IF a ZZ run followed that list of events, for example: P141312112112 how would you score those ZZ runs?

Al

OK, the modes are the same for all 3 systems and very simple. The problem is that it just didn't occur to me that anyone would have a problem with this. The result of that is EVERYONE is having a problem. Therefore rather than answer here, I'll add a Mode chapter to the manual. Now yesterday Tornadoes knocked out the power here. Had one in my front yard! This morning I MUST make a trip out of town. I'll try to get that chapter done late today or tomorrow morning.

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Hi Ellis,

From post #13 in the NOR Approach thread.

We always start with F2 as opposed to F3 when starting in the blind BUT starting in the blind should be avoided at all costs. An astute player will have already noted what is happening on the weak side (the side with the fewest circles). Which are we seeing more of on the weak side 2s or 3+s? (3 or mores).

From chapter 7, Post #19

Now at the beginning of a shoe we often don't know the correct mode yet so we tend to start with mode 3 until and if it proves wrong.

There seems to be a contradiction between the 2 posts. But, I’m not sure that there is. Could you clarify?

Thanks,

res

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Hi Ellis,

From post #13 in the NOR Approach thread.

From chapter 7, Post #19

There seems to be a contradiction between the 2 posts. But, I’m not sure that there is. Could you clarify?

Thanks,

res

Hi Ron, Very Good eye! I'm thinking they are Both wrong. If we have no clue to the mode (maybe its a new shoe that started with a 4, or maybe the prior shoe was streaky or the table has been streaky.) I think the BEST thing to do is not make the third bet at all and then let that play determine the mode for the next 3rd bet.

Now with sys 40 and OTB4L its a little different but not much.

Recognize that with F, the first Mode decision arrives with only a 2 in a row on the other side

S40 it's the first 3 in the shoe.

OTB4L it's the first 4.

But in all 3 cases we should still be flat betting at decision time. Our score could be most anything but not any worse than -2. (We might have won a few bets before we lost the 1,1.)

But if you have already gone to a 2 bet because the shoe started with a long run then I think it best to go back to 1 or not bet at all when the decision play comes up.

I'll make the necessary corrections in the manual when I edit it.

You may not get what I said about a long run. Suppose a shoe starts with a 9 ZZ. Eventually it may occur to you to to stop betting the winning 1,1,1 and go to 2,2. This is a good move but when you lose the 2, don't go to 3, go back to 1. The same goes for all 3 systems and all very long runs. Of course with OTB4L, I'm talking about a TT run, and with 40, a ZZ run, and with F, a straight run.

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Hi Ellis,

Just returned from a week long vacation over the holidays and will need a couple of days to review the new NOR material and get back to you with comments, questions etc. I imagine many people are away during the holidays, and you may get inundated in the next few days.

Hopefully, you did not overlook my post to you ( NOR Q & A post #96 ......from memory ) on 5-18 regarding feedback that you requested from all members.

In that post, I mentioned several topics ( False Indicators, System Overlap, System Overlay) that I think merit additional discussion for inclusion in the NOR manual. There are several other areas that are likewise important topics, and I have numerous questions regarding the NOR material which I will provide in my next post. Thanks, Ellis.

Don

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Hi Ellis,

Just returned from a week long vacation over the holidays and will need a couple of days to review the new NOR material and get back to you with comments, questions etc. I imagine many people are away during the holidays, and you may get inundated in the next few days.

Hopefully, you did not overlook my post to you ( NOR Q & A post #96 ......from memory ) on 5-18 regarding feedback that you requested from all members.

In that post, I mentioned several topics ( False Indicators, System Overlap, System Overlay) that I think merit additional discussion for inclusion in the NOR manual. There are several other areas that are likewise important topics, and I have numerous questions regarding the NOR material which I will provide in my next post. Thanks, Ellis.

Don

OK Don, if, after review, you can list the headings you feel need regurgitation, I will be happy to oblige in a final chapter called NOR Implementation. Meanwhile Keith and I are working on 40 play by play explanation shoes that will cover all three systems as well as system switches.

BTW, if any of you have any favorite actual casino shoes you would like to see included in the play by plays, now would be a good time to post them. Just post them using our short cut method.

Also BTW, I will take the best questions from the NOR Q & A thread and include them in the Manual in a chapter called Most Frequently Asked Questions.

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Based on the content of the NOR chapter material that you and Keith are providing to all of us......the NOR manual will be a treasure trove of Baccarat information and a BEST SELLER "classic" at any price.

Kudos to both of you and all BTC members who participated in helping you prepare and finalize the NOR Approach, with pertinent questions, comments and suggestions.

The 40 sample "play by play" shoes that will illustrate all the NOR system concepts and switching techniques, will be a special treat that will HIGHLIGHT and clarify most, if not all questions, that anyone might have. Therefore, on second thought, rather than questions..... I may only have comments/suggestions and my favorite shoes that I will post later.

Thanks again guys, for your burning passion, dedication and exceptional Baccarat knowledge that you impart to all BTC Baccarat aficionados and neophytes everywhere!!

Don

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Ellis,

Can you include an addendum to the manual and briefly talk about ez baccarat. I am sure you are aware that you dont pay commission on banker but if you have a 3 card 7 on banker it is a tie. How would you incorporate your money management progression, switching systems, etc. when approachedd with this tie. Including it as a regualr tie doesnt seem right as there would be a big increase in the number of ties in the shoe.

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Ellis,

Can you include an addendum to the manual and briefly talk about ez baccarat. I am sure you are aware that you dont pay commission on banker but if you have a 3 card 7 on banker it is a tie. How would you incorporate your money management progression, switching systems, etc. when approachedd with this tie. Including it as a regualr tie doesnt seem right as there would be a big increase in the number of ties in the shoe.

It is just a convenience for the casino - a way to impose commission W/O going through the whole commission process. I'm sure it works out to a little more than 5% of Bank wins because casinos never introduce anything in the player's favor. It's very likely The Wizard has computed the exact odds over on his site.

My advice is change nothing in your play. Play NOR as usual. Does anyone see it differently?

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Based on the content of the NOR chapter material that you and Keith are providing to all of us......the NOR manual will be a treasure trove of Baccarat information and a BEST SELLER "classic" at any price.

Kudos to both of you and all BTC members who participated in helping you prepare and finalize the NOR Approach, with pertinent questions, comments and suggestions.

The 40 sample "play by play" shoes that will illustrate all the NOR system concepts and switching techniques, will be a special treat that will HIGHLIGHT and clarify most, if not all questions, that anyone might have. Therefore, on second thought, rather than questions..... I may only have comments/suggestions and my favorite shoes that I will post later.

Thanks again guys, for your burning passion, dedication and exceptional Baccarat knowledge that you impart to all BTC Baccarat aficionados and neophytes everywhere!!

Don

Many of our members have tried various systems all over the internet. Some of those guys will appreciate the intricacies and the shoe coverage of NOR as a well rounded system that can beat any shoe a casino can produce - a true Baccarat breakthrough. Others have nothing to compare it to and have no idea of what they have lucked onto.

I wrote the first Baccarat manual ever written in any language. Now there are hundreds. NOR is my 14th Baccarat manual. What you find elsewhere on the internet is stuff I was doing 25 years ago. We've come a long way. None, including mine, can touch NOR. They are in a lesser league.

$750 is the lowest price, by far, I have ever offered. I have sold thousands of lesser manuals at $3000 a copy. I have never had a single return.

My sales success was due to the fact that I played each of my own systems in the casinos for high stakes in front of large invited audiences. I have never known anyone else willing to do this. Well, I know of a couple who tried but wished they hadn't. I think that's called putting your money where your mouth is. Anyone who refuses to do this, well, let's just say that they have good reason to refuse. If they could, they would, because nothing sells manuals faster than watching the designer play his own system successfully.

But ANYONE who puts in the study and practice can play NOR successfully. It's the best there is, and I should know.

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It is just a convenience for the casino - a way to impose commission W/O going through the whole commission process. I'm sure it works out to a little more than 5% of Bank wins because casinos never introduce anything in the player's favor. It's very likely The Wizard has computed the exact odds over on his site.

My advice is change nothing in your play. Play NOR as usual. Does anyone see it differently?

Hi ellis how are you, the different is that when your bet is on B and you have 3 card with 7 points, its a push for B and a loss for P, what we meant here is suppose we win our B but we don't, cause a push, should we just ignore that bank just like we ignore the tie? or should we just mark down another circle for B and pretend we won that bet and so under the unit column? happened to me when i got my bet on B with 3 units and they came out the dragon 7,, i think xingbnso had the same problem as i

("-_-)-_-*)

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Hi Ellis,

I have been doing pretty well playing NOR. However, I ran into a couple of shoes recently. i lost 8 units in each shoe. Could you please offer suggestions.

Shoe #1

P122311331111

P1331122141

Shoe #2

P4211131241

B113

Thanks, res

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Hi ellis how are you, the different is that when your bet is on B and you have 3 card with 7 points, its a push for B and a loss for P, what we meant here is suppose we win our B but we don't, cause a push, should we just ignore that bank just like we ignore the tie? or should we just mark down another circle for B and pretend we won that bet and so under the unit column? happened to me when i got my bet on B with 3 units and they came out the dragon 7,, i think xingbnso had the same problem as i

Hi Tang! You and xingbnso are right. We DO need a best way to play this no commission Bac. I have always avoided this game since its inception at Foxwood in the '90s. Call it a mistrust of casinos through actual experience. So I'm no expert on this Bac version. I don't like to give advice on something I've never actually played in the casino. Actual casino play always brings a certain enlightenment. Nevertheless, here is how I see it on the face of it:

First, I'm not comfortable with "pretending" anything. I see lots of pitfalls going down that road.

Look at a practical example: Suppose we lose a 1,2 and our 3 bet happens to be on Bank and draws a 3 card 7. We pretend we won so we withdraw 2 chips and go back to a 1 bet. Even if we win, we just gave up 2 units to "commission". 2 units is more commission than we usually pay for a whole shoe, let alone one hand. It's too much!

Now I don't know the frequency of occurrence of 3 card 7's on Bank but I'm guessing about 2 per shoe. That would make it roughly equal to normal commission. I'll defer to The Wizard on that but if it is considerably more than that then we shouldn't be playing that game at all.

Rather than treat it as a tie, I think we should treat it as a "missed bet". You know, that's like when you get caught still admiring the waitress when the dealer deals. This gives us the opportunity to switch sides IF that is what the system we are playing calls for. But our bet amount should ride.

OK, now, does anyone see it differently?

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Hi Ellis,

I have been doing pretty well playing NOR. However, I ran into a couple of shoes recently. i lost 8 units in each shoe. Could you please offer suggestions.

Shoe #1

P122311331111

P1331122141

Shoe #2

P4211131241

B113

Thanks, res

Hi Ron! I can see where the 2nd shoe would have given you some problems but the first shoe is hard to lose almost no matter what you do.

OK the first shoe is decidedly OTB4L. The starting TTs is a dead giveaway but even more important is the OR count keeps returning to 0 right from the start. Played OTB4L 3 (because of the early and numerous 3s), you score an easy +17 with a 1234 prog with one OTR bet at play 21 which you win. +17 in less than 2 cols is outstanding. Had you tried to advance your prog to the 234 and 345, you would have won almost as well.

This is the one occasion the 1234 has an advantage over the 234 and 345. The 1234 has a 4th bet while the 234 and 345 doesn't. You happened to win that 4th bet at play 21 on the 7 ZZ.

But even if you mostly ignored system selection and played S40 you would have done well. You need to have an unusual talent to lose this shoe.

But not so with the second shoe! The starting 4, unfortunately, puts you on F just in time for the shoe to switch to super chop. But then F loses 2 bets at plays 5 & 6. THAT should have put you on notice. Then play 7 is the same for 40 as it is for F. That winning bet should have put you on S40. If you didn't catch it there you should definitely catch it on the next play. 40 grinds through reasonably well but this is a shoe you should be looking for a quick exit. +5 or 6 is about the best you can do. You probably stuck to F too long. But look at the shoe AFTER the starting 4! It's pure chop! Right or wrong, your best chance is to get your system switches in as early as possible. Play 7 or 8 would have saved you from complete obliteration. Hey, +5 or 6 is a whole lot better than losing!

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Hi,Ellis. I have a question: What is the definition of "Big excursions"?

An excellent question! Come to think of it, I never did put a numerical value on it. This refers to the FOUR shoe types as viewed from the perspective of the OR count:

1. Chop: Shoes that have or favor a plus count such as:

+1 0 +1 +2 +1 +2 +3 +2 +3 +4 Such shoes usually have an abundance of 1's. (S40)

2. Neutral: The count revolves around 0 or a low # with few "excursions" beyond 3 + or -. (OTB4L)

+1 0 -1 0 +1 +2 +1 0 -1 0 -1 0 These have an abundance of single or double 1's, 2s and 3s, "Runless shoes", the casino's favorite.

3. Streak: The count favors minus. (F2 or 3)

-1 -2 -3 -2 -3 -4 -3 -4 -5 -6 We see many straight runs of various lengths.

4. I seldom mention the Fourth shoe type because we seldom see it any more but back in the early '90s (TB4L) shoes were dominant. F beats it.

-1 -2 -3 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 We see numerous straight AND ZZ runs often following each other. Your OR count is hitting 4 or more in BOTH directions. "Big excursions" into Both + and - territory.

We call these TB4L shoes and TB4L soundly beats them IF you get no TTs. But TB4L loses EVERY bet in the TTs (BB PP BB PP) This fact disqualifies TB4L as a NOR system. TTs are too common today. But remember that F beats BOTH Straight AND ZZ runs so it is our system of choice in TB4L shoes.

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Ellis, The following topics are crucial to mastering NOR and professional caliber play....in my opinion!!

Please consider placing special focus and emphasis on these areas via examples, illustrations etc. in the NOR manual.

Perhaps an entire chapter or two could be devoted to the following subjects.......and maybe entitled "Selecting the Very Best NOR System to START the shoe at hand." Some of the most important topics include the following:

a. Table Selection, Tote Board Reading & and Evaluating Previous Shoes.

b. The Art of conquering the first 20 plays. ( Absolutely essential to your seccess)

- Recognizing False Indicators

- Utilizing System Overlay

- Mastering System Overlap

- NOR System synopsis of Likes & Dislikes ( Simplified "Cheat Sheet" )

c) Shoes from HELL.....and how to handle them.

d) Switching between F2 and F3 via examples.

e) The Pause.....No betting or Flat Betting.

Will post a few of my favorite shoes......later.

Thanks, Ellis.

Don

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Ellis, The following topics are crucial to mastering NOR and professional caliber play....in my opinion!!

Please consider placing special focus and emphasis on these areas via examples, illustrations etc. in the NOR manual.

Perhaps an entire chapter or two could be devoted to the following subjects.......and maybe entitled "Selecting the Very Best NOR System to START the shoe at hand." Some of the most important topics include the following:

a. Table Selection, Tote Board Reading & and Evaluating Previous Shoes.

b. The Art of conquering the first 20 plays. ( Absolutely essential to your seccess)

- Recognizing False Indicators

- Utilizing System Overlay

- Mastering System Overlap

- NOR System synopsis of Likes & Dislikes ( Simplified "Cheat Sheet" )

c) Shoes from HELL.....and how to handle them.

d) Switching between F2 and F3 via examples.

e) The Pause.....No betting or Flat Betting.

Will post a few of my favorite shoes......later.

Thanks, Ellis.

Don

Will do! I'm thinking an Implementation chapter, A Review chapter and a Playing Tips from Ellis chapter.

When all is said and done, I would like to be able to truthfully say that NOR is a Baccarat manual designed by the students themselves to be the utmost of student friendly or some such wording. I'm thinking that would surely make it unique.

When hard copy ready it will be in formal manual format with an Introduction, a Table of Contents and a Glossary of Terms.

I'm thinking this will be my last manual. Not getting any younger. I'd like to get my novel started: "The Player" by E. Clifton Davis. How I took Atlantic City. I'm thinking Nicholas Cage! Kenny Uston will be in it. - A bit part. It will be about the REAL WORLD of gambling. "21" and "Casino" suck, in my opinion.

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