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Hi Ellis,

I really like this new approach in organizing the NOR information. Your list of the 7 things to learn NOR are a perfect outline for additional teachings. Let me also say that I for one would GREATLY appreciate more help with table selection. The idea of being able to quickly read the tote board to match the game to the right system and betting strategy would really increase a player's win rate. The more I play (live in casino only) the more I realize joining games already in progress could be a highly rewarding strategy with your methods.

Two questions on your example column. First, would you normally wait 5 or so plays to determine the system selction? Second, Playing SS 2-3, starting at play 6, I get total win of +14 with a worst position of -1 (the first bet on B which lost). I must be doing something wrong with SS 2-3 or U1D2 M2.

As for your 7 items, 1,2,3 and 4 are pretty well explained throughout the materials (although a nice summary of 4 in one place would be great). I need a further understanding of 5,6 and 7, especially 7.

Thanks for all your help!

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Transferred from PM

hi, i need to know what do you do if 1s-4s are MC, 1s-2s are MC and 2s-3s are MC??

Good question Tang!

1's & 4s MC = SS 2-3 (F2,3)

1's & 2's MC = OP 3-4 (S40)

2s & 3's MC = OTB4L 4-5

Happy to see you studying your EC (SAP) counts. A very valuable weapon. If those MCs hold up and you apply your 3 systems accordingly, all three put you in a can't lose situation.

I'm going to transfer your question to the forum because other new guys will surely have the same questions. Perhaps some of the old guys too.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Well I see it finally worked that time - after its too late.

ELLIS

If I could make a suggestion,

when you are going to do a large post or any post, do it in word then copy and paste it on the forum. This way you will never lose you post if shit happens.

In this way you could save all your post in a folder an go back to them if need be without going on the forum.

Norm

Norm A

FOLLOW THE SHOE

WHEN IN DOUBT WAIT IT OUT

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ELLIS

If I could make a suggestion,

when you are going to do a large post or any post, do it in word then copy and paste it on the forum.

Norm

I'll second that.

If it's going to be more than a short paragraph or two, compose it in Word or whatever WP you normally use and paste it to reply or new message here.

It saves a lot of swearing and dog kicking for sure!

MVS

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Thanks guys but this Windows 7 has no word processor. Is there a place I can download M. Word? I also have no tools at the top, you know, copy cut save and so forth and when I right click it loses my post. This is my third attempt at this post and I'll probably lose it when I hit send.

Praise the Lord, it went thru.

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wolfat

Hi Ellis,

you could download a good wordprocessor at:

www.openoffice.org

It's compatible with all microsoft aplications

ciao

bacclover

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Guys, is this bright red Windows Live Alert Team email for real? Says its going to shut down my hotmail unless I fill out their user name and password info. Or is it the one they were warning about on TV? That would be all I need at this point.

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Thanks guys but this Windows 7 has no word processor. Is there a place I can download M. Word? I also have no tools at the top, you know, copy cut save and so forth and when I right click it loses my post. This is my third attempt at this post and I'll probably lose it when I hit send.

Praise the Lord, it went thru.

Ellis,

We probably should think about a new thread just for computer problems but in the mean time, the default word processor in Windows 7 is called "WordPad" and works just like Word in Windows.

MVS

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Guys, is this bright red Windows Live Alert Team email for real? Says its going to shut down my hotmail unless I fill out their user name and password info. Or is it the one they were warning about on TV? That would be all I need at this point.

Yes, it's a scam, phishing email. Delete it and move on.

MVS

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Ellis,

We probably should think about a new thread just for computer problems but in the mean time, the default word processor in Windows 7 is called "WordPad" and works just like Word in Windows.

MVS

Thanks MVS. Yep I have that and already noted that it seems a bigger deal than before. I'll try that and if I don't like it the guys have given me some good word processor downloads. This is about my 10th computer and I don't recall ever having all these problems before. But I'll get used to it. I'll try that NOR post over again in the morning when I can think straight again.

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hawaiianal

Ellis,

It's been awhile since I've been in the "Forum" but have been doing lots of catching up.

Two statements that have me confused:

In the NOR Approach to Baccarat, you listed 2 samples: 1) 14141414 and 2) 11115

Both samples used the 3 NOR Systems with base betting strategy U1D2 M2.

Sample 1(14141414) OTB4L 4-5 scores +1 with a highest bet of 3, 3 times and a worst position of -2.

OP 3-4 scores +4 with a highest bet of 3, 4 times and a worst position of -2.

SS 2-3 scores +21 with a highest bet of 3 twice and a worst position of +1.

Sample 2 (11115) F2,3 scores +8.

40 in the 2 bet mode scores +5.

OTB4L in the 2 bet mode scores +1.

I played out the samples numerous times but can't seem to get those scores.

Can you post shoes to each example and/or explanations so I can correct my errors?

Thanks,

Al

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patrickeregan

Question: I think one of the things that I had problems with is table selection mostly because of the two casino's that I go to, one only has one table and the other is overcrowded. So I think that I can get my spot and wait out until the right shoe comes around. Also I need to wait longer to see what the shoe is. My questions is: about what percentage is the right shoe to play and what percentage is one that we have to wait on?

Pat

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System Selection Simplified:

Otherwise:

Plus = S40

Minus = F2,3

Hovering Zero = OTB4L

Ellis,

Would it be safe to assume that a shoe that starts off gangbusters with a -7 or so (F2) and then just kind of sits there at -7, -6, -7, etc then becomes an OTB4L type of shoe due to the fact that the O/R count is just "hovering" there at -7, -6 for 15 or so hands?

If it's just hanging out in a very small range, that surely should point to a neutral or "hovering zero" section of the shoe.

Just wanted to make sure I'm seeing this correctly.

Hopefully I've presented the example clearly enough. Sometimes I even confuse myself!

MVS

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Question: I think one of the things that I had problems with is table selection mostly because of the two casino's that I go to, one only has one table and the other is overcrowded. So I think that I can get my spot and wait out until the right shoe comes around. Also I need to wait longer to see what the shoe is. My questions is: about what percentage is the right shoe to play and what percentage is one that we have to wait on?

Pat

Wow, what an astute question. You must be Irish.

It depends largely on the casino, and the length of time the cards have been in play. This is why I say look for the "most" biased table rather than simply a biased table. Sometimes the most biased table is extremely and obviously biased making for an easy day for us. But remember, if ALL the players are winning the table will change. That is somebody's job at the casino. Sometimes it's the pit boss but usually it's an upstairs camera monitor person. Shuffle machine timers are usually controlled from upstairs. The length of time of the shuffle produces the bias. Long shuffles = chop. Short shuffles = streak. Exploiting this fact is what so vastly improved casino profits.

And sometimes the most biased table is barely playable esp. with old cards.

And then there is the factor of the two different shoes of cards, the red and the blue. About half the time the two shoes play about the same and about half the time the two shoes require two different systems.

But to answer your question: overall I would say that only 1/4 or less of all tables are unplayable. They lack consistency. They don't stick to the same bias. The more we have to switch systems to stay in tune with the table the worse off we are. The good news is that most tables will not require switching once you have tuned in to the right system for each shoe color. Overall, I find myself switching systems in only about 10% of the overall shoes I play.

New cards are usually OTB4L because most casinos employ a new card prep that produces OTB4L cards because that is the shoe type most casinos do best with.

For instance, I work closely with one of our Singapor, and thereabouts, players. He wasn't doing very well. I got him to stick to one casino and only play the first 3 shoes of new cards and always start with OTB4L. I taught him all the OTB4L tricks as well as triggers of when to switch. He ends up sticking with OTB4L 90% of the time. Playing to those instructions he has won every single session, about 20 to date. Right now I'm working with him on when to play U1D2 M2 vs when to play a 345 loop.

He would probably qualify for our most improved player award. This helps ALL of us including me. I learn from this experience TOO. And what I learn goes into our manual so that EVERYONE can gain by this player's experience.

No I'm not naming names but I'm hoping this player gains the confidence to tell you who he is himself and to tell you his experience himself.

Oh, how to we accomplish these lessons? By phone. I'm guessing we have about 150 phone hours in if not more.

And why can't he learn from the manuals like everyone else. He does but has language barrier problems. I'm usually merely putting our manual into terms I find he can understand. This helps me also. I'm learning to avoid terms that are not fully understood world wide.

Back to pat: Pat, I'm guessing that about 60% of shoes reveal themselves in the first several plays and about 90% by play 12. If you still don't know by play 20, find youself an easier table.

Guys, I've got classes again all day today but I graduate today so that is the end of that.

Hawian Al, I haven't forgotten about you but my new scanner is not up yet so I'll have to answer your question long hand when I have a little more time.

MVS, don't we have a NOR questions thread? If not, would you please start one and transfer these questions to it.

Hawian Al, I'm sure you weren't the only one who could not reproduce my two examples to the right scores so I;ll transfer your question from my PM box to the NOR questions thread or to this thread if MVS hasn't come through yet. But please remind me or go ahead and transfer your question yourself.

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Ellis,

Would it be safe to assume that a shoe that starts off gangbusters with a -7 or so (F2) and then just kind of sits there at -7, -6, -7, etc then becomes an OTB4L type of shoe due to the fact that the O/R count is just "hovering" there at -7, -6 for 15 or so hands?

If it's just hanging out in a very small range, that surely should point to a neutral or "hovering zero" section of the shoe.

Just wanted to make sure I'm seeing this correctly.

Hopefully I've presented the example clearly enough. Sometimes I even confuse myself!

MVS

Another great question and one that has caused me great consternation.

It would be nice if All OTB4L shoes actually hovered 0. But about half the time that is not the case. If the OR count is hovering (little movement) (back and forth) the shoe has changed to OTB4L regardless of what count the OR count is hovering at.

For instance: A shoe might start out with an early 6 Banks in a row and from there go purely OTB4L. Our OR count will be hovering -5 rather than 0. But the important thing is that the count IS hovering regardless of what count it is hovering at.

You find yourself playing F2 in a shoe where OTB4L would have done the best over the last 7 or so hands. Unfortunately there is no SET number of hands to look back but noting what system would have done best over the last 7 hands usually does the trick. The neat thing is that if you turn out to be wrong and merely chasing a shoe whim, you can switch right back with little damage done.

For instance, when Andrea switched to OTB4L in the last breaths of the tournament, I KNOW what was going through his head. Is this just a whim or has this shoe actually gone OTB4L??? So his bets will be tentative test the water bets until he wins a couple. Then "Yep, it's OTB4L." That is heads up play and heads up play is what won the tournament.

OH, sorry Zebra, yeah, you did good too!

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wolfat

For instance, when Andrea switched to OTB4L in the last breaths of the tournament, I KNOW what was going through his head. Is this just a whim or has this shoe actually gone OTB4L??? So his bets will be tentative test the water bets until he wins a couple. Then "Yep, it's OTB4L." That is heads up play and heads up play is what won the tournament.

I must say that the OT count helped me in this decision. It turned positive being negative for the whole shoe. I found this signal affordable.

I'm used to work with OT count instead OR because it helps me in taking decisions in "OTR" bets.

Lesson of the day: learn to deploy ALL your tools to take "informed" qualified decisions.

ciao

bacclover

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hawaiianal
With any luck, the questions are now in the question area and your NOR manual is in The NOR Approach thread.

I hope.

MVS

MVS,

I thought this was the NOR Question and Answer Thread?

Al

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hawaiianal
Wow, what an astute question. You must be Irish.

It depends largely on the casino, and the length of time the cards have been in play. This is why I say look for the "most" biased table rather than simply a biased table. Sometimes the most biased table is extremely and obviously biased making for an easy day for us. But remember, if ALL the players are winning the table will change. That is somebody's job at the casino. Sometimes it's the pit boss but usually it's an upstairs camera monitor person. Shuffle machine timers are usually controlled from upstairs. The length of time of the shuffle produces the bias. Long shuffles = chop. Short shuffles = streak. Exploiting this fact is what so vastly improved casino profits.

And sometimes the most biased table is barely playable esp. with old cards.

And then there is the factor of the two different shoes of cards, the red and the blue. About half the time the two shoes play about the same and about half the time the two shoes require two different systems.

But to answer your question: overall I would say that only 1/4 or less of all tables are unplayable. They lack consistency. They don't stick to the same bias. The more we have to switch systems to stay in tune with the table the worse off we are. The good news is that most tables will not require switching once you have tuned in to the right system for each shoe color. Overall, I find myself switching systems in only about 10% of the overall shoes I play.

New cards are usually OTB4L because most casinos employ a new card prep that produces OTB4L cards because that is the shoe type most casinos do best with.

For instance, I work closely with one of our Singapor, and thereabouts, players. He wasn't doing very well. I got him to stick to one casino and only play the first 3 shoes of new cards and always start with OTB4L. I taught him all the OTB4L tricks as well as triggers of when to switch. He ends up sticking with OTB4L 90% of the time. Playing to those instructions he has won every single session, about 20 to date. Right now I'm working with him on when to play U1D2 M2 vs when to play a 345 loop.

He would probably qualify for our most improved player award. This helps ALL of us including me. I learn from this experience TOO. And what I learn goes into our manual so that EVERYONE can gain by this player's experience.

No I'm not naming names but I'm hoping this player gains the confidence to tell you who he is himself and to tell you his experience himself.

Oh, how to we accomplish these lessons? By phone. I'm guessing we have about 150 phone hours in if not more.

And why can't he learn from the manuals like everyone else. He does but has language barrier problems. I'm usually merely putting our manual into terms I find he can understand. This helps me also. I'm learning to avoid terms that are not fully understood world wide.

Back to pat: Pat, I'm guessing that about 60% of shoes reveal themselves in the first several plays and about 90% by play 12. If you still don't know by play 20, find youself an easier table.

Guys, I've got classes again all day today but I graduate today so that is the end of that.

Hawian Al, I haven't forgotten about you but my new scanner is not up yet so I'll have to answer your question long hand when I have a little more time.

MVS, don't we have a NOR questions thread? If not, would you please start one and transfer these questions to it.

Hawian Al, I'm sure you weren't the only one who could not reproduce my two examples to the right scores so I;ll transfer your question from my PM box to the NOR questions thread or to this thread if MVS hasn't come through yet. But please remind me or go ahead and transfer your question yourself.

Ellis,

It's been awhile since I've been in the "Forum" but have been doing lots of catching up.

Two statements that have me confused:

In the NOR Approach to Baccarat, you listed 2 samples: 1) 14141414 and 2) 11115

Both samples used the 3 NOR Systems with base betting strategy U1D2 M2.

Sample 1(14141414) OTB4L 4-5 scores +1 with a highest bet of 3, 3 times and a worst position of -2.

OP 3-4 scores +4 with a highest bet of 3, 4 times and a worst position of -2.

SS 2-3 scores +21 with a highest bet of 3 twice and a worst position of +1.

Sample 2 (11115) F2,3 scores +8.

40 in the 2 bet mode scores +5.

OTB4L in the 2 bet mode scores +1.

I played out the samples numerous times but can't seem to get those scores.

Can you post shoes to each example and/or explanations so I can correct my errors?

Thanks,

Al

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MVS,

I thought this was the NOR Question and Answer Thread?

Al

It is (and says so at the top of the page) but the messages that got carried/moved over AND replies to those get the original header until somebody manually changes them. If it's only a few messages, I usually just edit them myself if I have the time.

MVS

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Here we are. Thanks MVS. Now that I think I got "BTW" squared away lets get back to Al's question. I suspect others couldn't get my scores too but were ashamed to ask.

Remember guys, there are no dumb questions on this forum. Only the answer can be dumb as I just demonstrated over on the BTW thread.

OK lets take the PBPBPPPPP first

P11115 played S40 = +5; OTB4L = +1; F2,3 = +8 played U1D2 M2 starting at play 2.

U1D2 M2 means Up 1 on a loss, down 2 on a win, M2 = Mandatory 2 = always bet 2 after 1.

S40

Your bets starting at play 2 would be:

1B, 2P, 1B, 2P, 1B, 2B, 3P, 1B = +5

OTB4L

1P, 2B, 3B, 1B, 2P, 1B, 2B, 3P = +1

F2,3 (doesn't matter which)

1P, 2P, 1P, 2P, 1P, 2P, 1P, 2P = +8

The OR count starting at play 2 would be:

+1, +2, +3, +4, +3, +2, +1, 0

Counted correctly this is a 5 in a row ZZ followed by a 5 in a row straight run.

The object of this example was to demonstrate that even though the OR count favored + (S40)

the events favored F2,3 because F2,3 is our ONLY choice that likes 4 or mores straight or ZZ

therefore, when the events likes and dislikes are in conflict with the OR count, you are better off to go by the events likes and dislikes rather than the OR count.

Fortunately this conflict is rare but it CAN happen.

Any questions on that one? Note that on both S40 and OTB4L, I used a PL (prog length) of 2 before going OTR and I only stayed OTR for 1 winning bet.

I could have stayed OTR for 2 winning bets with S40 which would have improved my S40 score to +7 but I seldom do that in the real world unless I'm seeing lots of long straight runs. But in that case, I wouldn't be playing S40 in the first place. Perhaps that is where we differed.

Maybe this will clear that question up???

When playing S40 as a stand alone system, per the manual, we would correctly stay OTR for 2 winning bets when our PL is only 2

BUT

When playing S40 as a component of NOR we ONLY play S40 as our Chop (+ OR) system and it would be very questionable to stay OTR after a 4 in a row in a choppy shoe. Get it?

If we only stay OTR for 1 winning bet with a PL of 2, it would take a 7 in a row to beat us. By that time it is highly unlikely that our OR count would still be +. Our OR count would very likely be telling us to change systems to F2,3 anyway.

The point here is that High 4+s straight and ZZ = F2,3.

Likewise, when playing OTB4L as a component of NOR we only stay OTR for 1 winning bet regardless if our PL is 2 or 3.

Why? Because even with a PL of only 2, it takes an 8 in a row to beat us and normal 8s are one every 8 shoes. They are even LESS frequent in OTB4L shoes. ALSO, if you go off the run and lose your 1 bet you always have the option of going right back on the run. But I only do this if I'm seeing lots of very long runs. In this case it would be highly unlikely that I would be playing OTB4L in the first place.

Perhaps you can see why I prefer to rewrite the rules of the 3 systems in the NOR manual so I can gear them more to the overall NOR approach rather than as stand alone systems. The only real difference is that in the NOR Approach we only stay OTR for ONE bet win or lose as a general rule. Circumstances where we stay OTR would be VERY rare.

The 3 system rules can be far simpler when written as they apply to NOR.

A NOR Approach advantage is that it offers a more confined way of thinking than we need to have when playing any of the 3 systems as stand alone systems. When playing as stand alone systems we are trying to make ONE system do everything because we don't have the option of changing systems. But with NOR, each system only fills its own specific nitch so each system can be played more uniformly.

Ok, I'll do the other one in a separate post.

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Ok, the other example Al was trying to duplicate was 20 plays

B PPPP B PPPP B PPPP B PPPP

B14141414

OK, I think I see one reason already.

When I played O2,3 (S40) I played it the O2 mode (PL 2) (went OTR after 2 losing bets) but I stayed OTR for 2 bets according to the S40 manual rather than only 1 bet according to the NOR Approach.

I started all 3 sys at play 2 to have a direct comparison, and I bet U1D2 M2 for all 3.

Had I played O2 correct to the NOR manual and only stayed OTR for 1 winning bet I would have done better. Had I played O2 the NOR way which I should have, we score +10 instead of +5. Chalk one up for NOR.

R2,3 (F2,3)

I think the only confusion here is I started with a 1 bet on P at play 2 as if the example came up mid shoe rather than at the beginning of a shoe. I think if you start it that way you'll match my +21 W/O any problem. All bets are on P. U1D2 M2.

OTB4L

I played OTB4L 3 (3 losses before going OTR) because 4s were above normal so I never went OTR because there were no 5's. You get up to +4 but then your prog gets cut off by the last play so you end up at only +1.

Try it that way and I think you will duplicate my scores exactly but if you still have problems let me know on this thread. In fact, let me know either way.

Both examples demonstrate OVERLAP. There are shoes and shoe sections that all 3 systems beat but our job is to select the BEST sytem for the shoe/ shoe section at hand.

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