nor NOR Questions & Answers by E. Clifton Davis and Various ECD Players March 11, 2011

[Guest]

Hi! I have a question about the bold part there..

Do you mean that we advance to the 234-prog after two winning bets or after the second winning bet in the 1234 prog?

When you are betting the 123 and hitting your first and second prog bets, the easiest way to slip into the 234 is after a losing 1 and winning 2. Just stay at 2.

Likewise when hitting well with the 234 slip into the 345 after a losing 2 and winning 3. Just stay at 3.

Back to the 1234 for a sec. I should probably write that prog this way 123 4. Because you would very seldom make the 4 bet. If you lose your 123 right off the bat W/O any winning bets you are at -6 and cannot make your 4 bet because of our -8 stop loss. Nor should you because you are obviously playing the wrong system. You would either go back to a 1 bet starting a new system or not bet at all until the right system reveals itself.

[donw]

Well, you made the same mistake I made 3 trips ago when I had the flu. You waited too long to make your move. But even so, there is no way you should have lost this shoe no matter what you did IF you played 40 correctly.

First, you are correct. This is an extremely choppy shoe. But your highest OR count is +6, not +7. And you end up at +2. Remember, you can't count the first play so the OR count starts at play No. 2 at +1.

Nevertheless this shoe starts out so choppy I'll bet the prior shoes were also choppy at this table. Therefore you likely started right out with S40 -3. Remember that we start in Mode 3 until there is a 4. There is never a 4 in this shoe so we never get out of mode 3.

So, OK I started at play 2 and just flat bet at 1 until play 6 where you lose your 1 bet. Your score went from +4 to +3 so you have plenty of money to make your 2 bet at play 7 and that is what you would do given the OR count is very agreeable at +3 at that point. So you cruise along with your 1,2 prog and find yourself at +9 score at the top circle of the 5. But then you lose your 123 against the 5 making your score +3 at play 16. Now you make your OTR bet. I would have bet 4 since I'm betting with mostly their money. But even if you bet onlt 1 unit OTR you're fine. In Mode 3 you only stay OTR for 1 bet so at play 18 you are betting either 2 or 1 on Opposite.

If you bet a 4,2 on and off the run at plays 17 and 18 you finish at +10. If you bet 4,1 like I did you finish at +9. But even if you only bet 1,1 at plays 17 and 18, you still finish at +6. Even if you played Mode 2 by mistake you still win. S40 does not lose to 5s regardless of Mode. Even if you decided to skip the OTR bet altogether you STILL win.

So how did you find a way to lose??? I'll bet you made the same mistake I made that flu trip and stayed with flat bet too long.

Here's the thing. If it's their money bet it! Don't worry about it until you are betting YOUR money.

Or maybe you waited too long to start and when the 5 came along you couldn't cover the 123 loss.

Hey, waiting too long is almost as bad as starting too early.

It's too bad because it probably would have turned out an easy +20 shoe.

BTW, even had you advanced to the 234 or even the 345 well before the 5, you still win at +6.

Boy, isn't Monday morning quarterbacking easy!

Hey Ellis

How would you play the rest of the shoe after the 5 player in a row I'm still paying S40 but since the 5 in row on player I think I would go OTR after 2 losses in a row but lost so should I have stayed opposites go OTR after two losses?

Thanks

[Guest]

Hey Ellis

How would you play the rest of the shoe after the 5 player in a row I'm still paying S40 but since the 5 in row on player I think I would go OTR after 2 losses in a row but lost so should I have stayed opposites go OTR after two losses?

Thanks

Well, not quite. You are in Mode 3. There is no question of the Mode because there have been no 4s. Mode THREE means go OTR after THREE lost bets. (after a 4) So you would NOT go OTR under the 3 in a row. You make your 3 bet on Opposite and end up with a score of +9.

The 5 in a row makes the Mode somewhat questionable at that point because there have been no 3s or 4s at that point which is unusual. But the governing rule is: When starting S40 in the blind, stay in Mode 3 until there is an actual 4. Why? Because Mode 3 automatically beats all 1's, 2s and 3s. Mode 2 beats 1's and 2s but loses to 3's which is exactly what happened the way you played it.

[donw]

Well, not quite. You are in Mode 3. There is no question of the Mode because there have been no 4s. Mode THREE means go OTR after THREE lost bets. (after a 4) So you would NOT go OTR under the 3 in a row. You make your 3 bet on Opposite and end up with a score of +9.

The 5 in a row makes the Mode somewhat questionable at that point because there have been no 3s or 4s at that point which is unusual. But the governing rule is: When starting S40 in the blind, stay in Mode 3 until there is an actual 4. Why? Because Mode 3 automatically beats all 1's, 2s and 3s. Mode 2 beats 1's and 2s but loses to 3's which is exactly what happened the way you played it.

Thanks Ellis its just the confused me a little bit and i was not sure if I should include the 5 in a row in the sap count which I did not.

thanks again also if you do a training on the west coast or Las Vegas let me know or if you do a virtual training that would be cool

[TangNangDoaHoa]

another trip today played 4 shoe with a score of +17 +21 +10 +11, this is not 4 shoe in a row, like Ellis tought about table selection find the most biased table, yah took me hours waited for the most bias shoe cuz they only had 2 baccarat tables.Ellis what i see more and more about the mode is they don't stay where they are and are often like 90% changing, Yup since the day i learn NOR and play NOR i never fail/ lose a trip , but what i lost to is the mode, mode 2 mode 3 mode2 mode 3, that's how they are Ellis how will you deal with this if you see most shoes are like this, BIG Thanks : )

[Guest]

another trip today played 4 shoe with a score of +17 +21 +10 +11, this is not 4 shoe in a row, like Ellis tought about table selection find the most biased table, yah took me hours waited for the most bias shoe cuz they only had 2 baccarat tables.Ellis what i see more and more about the mode is they don't stay where they are and are often like 90% changing, Yup since the day i learn NOR and play NOR i never fail/ lose a trip , but what i lost to is the mode, mode 2 mode 3 mode2 mode 3, that's how they are Ellis how will you deal with this if you see most shoes are like this, BIG Thanks : )

Wow, an excellent question and it reminds me that I haven't talked about this in the manual yet but I do have a trick for this that I have deployed in the casino under those very same circumstances that seems to work rather well.

First, congratulations on your excellent play Tang. It demonstrates that students CAN learn to do this. Even if you don't do everything exactly perfect at first, NOR is quite forgiving and you still get a good shot at every shoe.

BTW the 2 table situation you face where you play is similar to the 1 table situation Keith and I often face at Hollywood. In that case, I don't worry about table selection but I do start shoes a lot slower and a lot more carefully and give the shoe more time to reveal the right system. BUT STILL, TABLE SELECTION, WHEN WE CAN DEPLOY IT, IS OUR NUMBER ONE WEAPON.

It is usually true that your Mode will change more often than your system. Some days at some tables the Mode just never changes and this makes for a very easy day. But other days the Mode seems to change with virtually every run. Sure, you always want to be in the Mode that is right the most in a given shoe. But, some days you get these shoes where you are simply ALWAYS in the wrong mode. Fortunately this doesn't occur very often but when it does, it does, and we need a defense for it. What I have found in this situation is to play the opposite mode that the last run called for. OK Mode 2 worked well for this run so next run I'll play Mode 3 and so forth. Sometimes this strategy makes you right more often than you are wrong.

But, I caution you NOT to play this way all the time. It is just a trick to deploy under that circumstance where the Mode nearly always ends up wrong. I don't know what causes it but you get those days.

When you first start it's usually best to stick closely to the rules I have presented. But as you gain experience you begin to notice things more and more. Sooner or later you will begin to learn what I mean when I say "play what is happening!" Ha, the shoes don't know our rules.

BTW, there are forums out there like BF who would call what Tang accomplished impossible. They would immediately call Tang a liar and everyone else who posts a winning trip report. Even when they come and watch us win in person they say we are just lucky. I don't think it is logical to assume that everyone who joins BTC immediately becomes a liar. But, I'll tell you what IS logical. These same people have no interest at all in taking the time and work required to learn how to win. Therefore thay need an excuse for their own laziness. Easy - "Everyone who wins is a liar."

They are HALF right! It is, in fact, IMPOSSIBLE for THEM to win. They will always be losers. They are part of the 26% casino profits. Actually we should thank them. If it wasn't for the 26%ers, there would be no Baccarat!

Edited July 22, 2011 by Guest

[TangNangDoaHoa]

Thank you Teacher Ellis

[TangNangDoaHoa]

and i now get the picture ''Play what is happening'' what a tought

[daytrader77459]

Hello, Ellis,

A quick question on the use of OTBL in the NOR approach. Example: If 3s are MC, and I have selected OTBL as primary shoe bias. Then, after a "win" on a 1 going to a 2, instead of playing OTBL and play opposite - should the MC=3 take higher priority and thus the correct bet is made 2 going to 3 (contrary to OTBL if not account for MCs)?

If 4s and 5s have been non-existent, is LC=4 or LC=4 and 5?

If 3s and 4s are equal and > expected frequencies, then is MC=4s? Or is MC=3 or MC=3 and 4?

Appreciate the review and clarifications. Thank you.

Daytrader77459

[Guest]

Hello, Ellis,

A quick question on the use of OTBL in the NOR approach. Example: If 3s are MC, and I have selected OTBL as primary shoe bias. Then, after a "win" on a 1 going to a 2, instead of playing OTBL and play opposite - should the MC=3 take higher priority and thus the correct bet is made 2 going to 3 (contrary to OTBL if not account for MCs)?

That's daytrader for ya - always thinking! This is a very good idea. I don't want to make it a regular OTB4L rule but it fits in nice as a playing tip. You get these shoes where we used to say the shoe is spitting 3s. I'll bet I've said that 500 times in the casino.

The shoe where we closed the only big bac table at Turning Stone started with a 2 and 7 3's. Fortunately we were playing the ladder system which loves 3s because not many systems beat an abundance of 3's. I have no idea of what causes this phenomenon. Shoes average 4.5 3's but sometmes you get more than twice that many. That is comparable to a shoe with 36 1's which you simply never see.

Daytrader is basically saying if you are seeing 3s, bet them. We know OTB4L loves 2s and likes 3s. But if you are playing OTB4L because of a super abundance of 3s, and 1's but a lack of 2s which tends to maintain a very low OR count pointing at OTB4L, you are better off to stay on the 2s for one more bet, betting 2s will go to 3 because that is what is happening. Just watch for the worm to turn.

If 4s and 5s have been non-existent, is LC=4 or LC=4 and 5?

If 3s and 4s are equal and > expected frequencies, then is MC=4s? Or is MC=3 or MC=3 and 4?

Appreciate the review and clarifications. Thank you.

OTB4L-2 likes 5 or mores but hates 4s. (go OTR after TWO losing bets)

OTB4L -3 loves 4s but hates 5s. (Go OTR after THREE losing bets)

If you are seeing no 4s or 5s but are getting 6 or mores you are usually better off with OTB4L-2 and staying OTR for 2 bets instead of 1.

On the other hand, with an abundance of 3s but no 4 OR MORES, which you often have at the beginning of shoes you are better off with OTB4L 3 in case of an occassional 4.

The important thing is this: When you get to your first 3 bet of the shoe, you do not know the mode yet. (assuming you are starting a new shoe) The next bet determines the mode. You are best off to reduce your "3" bet to a test the water 1 bet because you have no idea which side to bet. (which mode) BUT, after that 1 bet you know the mode so next time you lose your 2 bet, you have historical evidence for your normal 3 bet.

This again points out the advantage of starting mid shoe where the tote board tells you the mode.

If 4s > than 5s (if 4s are greater than 5s) = Mode 3.

If 5s > 4s = Mode 2

If no 4s or 5+s go with Mode 3 but reduce your 3 bet to a 1 bet.

Edited July 30, 2011 by Guest

[Guest]

Keith is a little concerned about my use of the term "Modes" in the manual.

All it means is this:

Mode 2 = Go OTR after TWO losing bets.

Mode 3 = Go OTR after THREE losing bets.

This is true for all 3 systems. But with F, we are talking about 2 or 3 losing bets before attempting to go on the other side. (On the 2 or 3 run on the other side.)

With ALL THREE systems, if we lose our OTR attempt, we go right back to normal betting on the other side.

In Mode 3 we only stay OTR ONE bet unless we have been seeing lots of very long runs in which case we stay OTR until we lose. But if there are THAT many long runs we would be playing F anyway which ALWAYS stays on runs once on them so the point is pretty much moot.

But in Mode 2 we are getting on the run earlier so we leave the option to stay OTR for 2 bets. BUT, if that second OTR bet loses, we are right back to ONE OTR bet win or lose.

This is all just plain common sense when you look at everything from the perspective of do what the shoe tells you to do. If the shoe is not consistent, (unstable) you are going to be losing and leaving that table anyway.

Rule 1: NEVER play a losing shoe. Abide by your -8 max stop loss. And NOTHING says you must go all the way to -8. There are tables that ARE stable. If not, take a break and try it later. We are not there to give them money. We are only there to play tables we can beat. The first table, no matter how much time we spent picking it, is not always the RIGHT table. We don't want random tables. We want a clear playable bias.

The right table should be very obvious as to which System and Mode to play. If it isn't, wait until it IS obvious or change tables or play later. NEVER play a losing shoe. It is a waste of time and money. You aren't there to play or have fun. You are there to win money!

We can have fun later - at the bar or the pool. That is what they are for. But gaming tables are serious business. The OTHER people are there for fun. Somehow they think losing is fun. Not me!

Edited July 30, 2011 by Guest

[Guest]

Look, Modes are incredibly simple. When you arrive at an OTR bet (you lost your 2 betting normally) simply ask yourself: "Which Mode would have worked last time???" If there was no last time yet, reduce your bet to 1 unit or skip the bet altogether.

That's it! Except if you have been in a shoe for a long time - through several OTR bets - your question becomes: Which Mode would have worked the most often? You can always put your OTR bets in red so they are easdy to see. But after a little practice, you'll know the right Mode W/O having to look back at all. Also, once you confirm a Mode, either way, you can put the Mode # in the margin and jot it in everytime it changes. This way you know the right Mode BEFORE you need it.

Edited July 30, 2011 by Guest

[kachatz1]

and i now get the picture ''Play what is happening'' what a thought

So very, very true...4 simple words...PLAY WHAT IS HAPPENING..

Not sure anyone of us could have put it any better! No matter the casino, no matter the country you are in, no matter if everyone else at the table speaks a different language than you do, or dresses differently, or W.H.A.T.E.V.E.R.

Rule #1:PLAY WHAT IS HAPPENING

Rule #2:( reread rule #1)

Just write it in the margin of your scorecard, and when in doubt, just think of those 4 little words...very powerful reminder to us all, no matter what our language, what system we prefer, whether we "score" the game using our Bac cards vertically or horizontally...as the shoe unfolds, and "reveals itself", just

PLAY WHAT IS HAPPENING.

Thanks for putting it so simply, TangNangDoaHoa !!

Edited July 30, 2011 by Ellis

[Guest]

That is exactly right! When you think about NOR, every rule we have: the bet placement rules, the Mode rules, the system selection rules, whatever, evey single rule is designed to do ONE thing - to play what is hapening in the shoe at hand.

Here is another little Mode trick I use: The problem with Mode 3 is it eventually gets you into 4 bets. But let's say I'm usually winning those 4 bets. What I'll do to reduce risk is slip into the 234 prog right after a winning 4 bet. A couple winning bets with the 234 and I go to the 345.

Look at it this way: When you lose a 123 and win a 4 you are still down 2. But if you lose a 123 and win a 42 you are already even. And the 3 bet progs 234 and 345 are a LOT less risky than a 4 bet prog of 1234. OK suppose the worst happens in Mode 3 and you lose a 234 against a run and go OTR with your 2 bet and win. Yes, you are down 7 for that prog but winning a 2222 is very common with the 234 or you win a 222 and lose a 2 but win your 3. You are right back in the game. All that is even truer with the 345. Yes, you are down 9 on a losing 345 and a winning 3 instead of -7 BUT you are only 3 bets down instead of 4. When you are tending to win bets in a row, that is the signal to advance your prog and bet according to what is happening.

So many players do just the opposite of playing what is happening. They bet on whatever is behind instead of betting on whatever is ahead. They end up betting opposites in a streaky shoe and repeats in a choppy shoe. If there is a shortage of 2s they bet on the darn things. There is no surer way to lose. They are why the casinos are at 26% profits. Bet what is happening!

One guy, not to mention names, had an $8000 system that said count P vs B in the first half and bet on what is behind in the 2nd half. Ha, they lost every shoe spectacularly. Bet on what is happening!

Edited July 30, 2011 by Guest

[Baccarat A]

Right! U1D2 M2 is a good net bet prog but should NOT be used with NOR. See Net betting keeps your bets low so you can bet U1D2 M2 with far less risk. But NOR always bets single side regardless of which system you are playing.

When and why did this change? The first entry in the NOR forum says "I’ll play this column with the two wrong systems first and then the right system using our base betting strategy U1D2 M2."

[Guest]

When and why did this change? The first entry in the NOR forum says "I’ll play this column with the two wrong systems first and then the right system using our base betting strategy U1D2 M2."

Correct! That was just an example of Overlap. The example has been changed in the new manual to reflect the NOR progs.

When? It changed when I posted the betting chapter in the NOR Approach thread.

Why? Because, as I explained before, we don't need to risk the aggressiveness of the U1D2 M2 prog with NOR because of NOR's higher hit rate. With NOR we advance our progressions upward depending on the quality of the shoe. We start by not betting until we know the shoe type and the system to start with. You may or may not know the mode yet when you start with the 111. If you had taken my advive and started mid shoe at a table, you already know the system AND the mode. Once you know the mode and you have confirmed the system by your +score you can advance to the 123 4. But you still don't make a 4 bet entirely with your own money. If a 4 bet comes up early before you have all or most of the winnings to make it with, you go back to 1 and check your system and mode.

You advance to the 234 if you have a high hit rate on your first bets (your 1 bets). You advance after a winning 2 bet.

If all still goes well, you advance to the 345 after a winning 3 bet.

Why, because the 234 and 345 can win more money in the same shoe than U1D2 M2 and they win more money at less risk than the U1D2 M2.

Also, if need be, its much easier to retreat from the 234 and 345 even back to the 123 IF NEED BE. But the U1D2 M2 will leave you swinging in the wind if the shoe takes a bad turn.

The whole idea is to match aggression with the quality of the shoe without risking more than a 3 bet progression.

If you play a few good shoes with both the 345 and the U1D2 M2 you'll soon see that the 345 usually considerably outperforms the U1D2M2 but with less risk.

Compare worst case scenarios:

Suppose with U1D2 M2 you find youself losing 4 bets in a row when starting with your 2 bet. You lose a 2345. You are 14 first bets down. You are done!

In the same case with the 345 you lose a 3453. You are only 5 first bets down. You are still in the game.

Now compare good scenarios: Look at winning 7 bets in a row!

With U1D2 M2 you win 1212121 = +10. Very good. Then you lose a 2 putting you at +8.

With the 345 you win 3333333 = +21 Then you lose a 3 putting you at +18.

Which do you like better?

See, the 345 performs better in BOTH good and bad situations and we only get to the 345 if our hit rate warrants it.

I think, all aspects considered, the 345 clearly outperforms the U1D2 M2 in ALL situations.

And remember, I invented both of them so I'm not biased toward either. They are both good progs but I think advancing 3 bet progs suits NOR MUCH better.

You'll have some tables where you simply can't advance from the 111. Fine, little harm done.

But then you'll get tables so biased you can start right out every shoe with the 345.

The $25 Midi Bac table Keith and I closed at Hollywood, the hand shuffle was so biased toward OTB4L that we simply started every shoe at $75, $100, $125. We KILLED every single shoe with a high of +54 units. We only lost the 5 bet once or twice all night but we still won those shoes easily. And since there was usually only the 2 of us, we could complete a shoe in less than 20 minutes.

Hey, what would you do if you were them??? You'd close the table too, wouldn't you!

OH, and BTW, the other guys that tried playing with us lost big time and soon quit. Why? Nobody beats OTB4L tables but BTC players! Nobody else knows how!

All of the above is in the NOR Approach thread and will soon be in the hard cover NOR manual.

I hope to have hard cover NOR manuals for the seminar attendees - if I can just stop the phone from ringing long enough.

Edited August 1, 2011 by Guest

[Baccarat A]

Thanks so much for the clarification. Sometimes I just need to be hit over the head a few times.

[Guest]

Thanks so much for the clarification. Sometimes I just need to be hit over the head a few times.

Ha, me too!

[Guest]

Nothing bothers a casino more than to have 6 or 7 players losing every shoe but one guy killing those same shoes. See, they can't change the shuffle or change the chip in the shuffle macine because then they are likely to get 6 or 7 WINNING and ONE losing. This really bugs them.

To their way of thinking, the one winning player MUST be cheating somehow. Beating shoes nobody else can beat SHOULD be impossible. Their bosses are going to be asking questions. So they want to know all possible about the winning player. They want to be ready. They will try every trick in the book to distract you because they need to be ready to tell their bosses what thay tried to defeat you. But if you still win anyway, they are off the hook because at least they tried everything short of shooting you.

DON'T lose your temper. If you lose your temper you can't play for shit and THEY won!

Your best defense? Laugh at their antics. If you laugh at them they feel silly and soon give up. But DON'T lose your cool! That's what they want you to do.

Edited August 1, 2011 by Guest

[TangNangDoaHoa]

one quick question Ellis

let say im playing s40 at the beginning of the shoe and there are 33 and ofcourse we are in mode 3 then a 4 came out should we switch right in to mode 2 after the 4 or should we stick to mode 3? Thank You

[Guest]

one quick question Ellis

let say im playing s40 at the beginning of the shoe and there are 33 and ofcourse we are in mode 3 then a 4 came out should we switch right in to mode 2 after the 4 or should we stick to mode 3? Thank You

Good question Tang. I wouldn't switch Modes under that condition. You are seeing more 3's and 3s are the kiss of death for Mode 2 playing 40. I would be more likely to switch systems to OTB4L -3. That likes 3s AND 4s.

[TangNangDoaHoa]

thanks alot Ellis im open for more, another trip today play 2 shoes +20 +8 , after all the trip playing NOR, i now have a words for NOR, it is a true winning approach, thanks you so much for teaching NOR to us many thanks

[Guest]

thanks alot Ellis im open for more, another trip today play 2 shoes +20 +8 , after all the trip playing NOR, i now have a words for NOR, it is a true winning approach, thanks you so much for teaching NOR to us many thanks

There are a lot of facets to NOR: Table selection, system selection, Mode selection and advancing your betting to the quality of the shoe, and cash mgt.

The neat thing is the more you play and practice the more you see and the better you do. You can get better and better forever. I still get a little better each time I play. There is no end to it.

NOR is quickly becomming the internationally accepted best way to play the game. I think it always will be.

Edited August 4, 2011 by Guest

[Guest]

BTW guys, I just got off the phone with Keith. When the hard cover manual is complete we aren't going to post it. We will actually mail everyone a hard copy. But we will support that with a manual questions thread.

We have to do it that way because of the internet underground press, namely, Baccarat Forums. They think the US Federal Copyright laws apply to everyone but them. I've been to Copyright court. I know the law. They don't have a leg to stand on. It's just a question of time before some hot young lawyer needs the money and takes them on.

Meanwhile, we will make it as difficult as we can. The NOR Manual will be formally copyrighted with an ISBN number. The fact that you paid for it doesn't mean you can make copies except for your own personal use.

A college professor can't buy a text book and make copies of a part of it to hand out to his class. Both the college and the professor WILL be sued. If authors weren't protected by the Copyright laws there would be no text books because there would be no profits in writing them.

You can't copy someone elses work and post it on the internet. The internet is not exempt from the law. The people I sued lost everything. I was awarded all their money, computers and office equipment right down to and including desk chairs. They were selling my NBJ Manual up and down the Eastern seaboard. The fact that they paid for the manual made no difference whatsoever. In fact the court went so far as to not allow them to sell ANY BJ manual ever, even if they wrote a new manual themselves. These courts don't fool around! At least Washington D.C. can do SOME things right.

[Guest]

Oh and BTW, they laughed at my attempts to sue them too. They kept laughing right up until the verdict. Then it wasn't so funny anymore. The court gave them 3 days to pay up and to ship their entire office to me. Don't take chances with the US Copyright laws. They mean exactly what they say. You have no right to copy someone else's work. That is what they say and that is what they mean.

But Ellis, people do it on the internet all the time. YEP, they do indeed! You'll never find me doing it. I know better.