Jump to content

NOR Questions & Answers


Recommended Posts

BTW guys, Keith and I have also been working on a BJ sales campaign remote from this forum. I don't think Keith will mind if I relay to you that our campaign was a roaring success. I think we will be seeing some new names around here shortly. Hey, sometimes we have to work on making money to keep this forum going.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 263
  • Created
  • Last Reply
hawaiianal
Ok, the other example Al was trying to duplicate was 20 plays

B PPPP B PPPP B PPPP B PPPP

B14141414

OK, I think I see one reason already.

When I played O2,3 (S40) I played it the O2 mode (PL 2) (went OTR after 2 losing bets) but I stayed OTR for 2 bets according to the S40 manual rather than only 1 bet according to the NOR Approach.

I started all 3 sys at play 2 to have a direct comparison, and I bet U1D2 M2 for all 3.

Had I played O2 correct to the NOR manual and only stayed OTR for 1 winning bet I would have done better. Had I played O2 the NOR way which I should have, we score +10 instead of +5. Chalk one up for NOR.

R2,3 (F2,3)

I think the only confusion here is I started with a 1 bet on P at play 2 as if the example came up mid shoe rather than at the beginning of a shoe. I think if you start it that way you'll match my +21 W/O any problem. All bets are on P. U1D2 M2.

OTB4L

I played OTB4L 3 (3 losses before going OTR) because 4s were above normal so I never went OTR because there were no 5's. You get up to +4 but then your prog gets cut off by the last play so you end up at only +1.

Try it that way and I think you will duplicate my scores exactly but if you still have problems let me know on this thread. In fact, let me know either way.

Both examples demonstrate OVERLAP. There are shoes and shoe sections that all 3 systems beat but our job is to select the BEST sytem for the shoe/ shoe section at hand.

Ellis,

Thanks a Million for the clarification.

Also, when are you and Keith planning your next trip to any casino?

I'd like to meet up with you guys sometime this year.

Thanks again and Aloha from the Islands,

Al

Link to post
Share on other sites

Ellis,

I have a couple of questions.

When playing F2 or F3 and you lose on the strong side and then you go to the weak side and lose the first bet. When you go back to the strong side and you lose that bet. What is your next play?

Also when playing F2 or F3 and you are in a chop, winning every other bet, would you start playing the chop at some time?

thanks, res

Link to post
Share on other sites

Great question Ron! I think it best if you should lose the double switch to stay there. Otherwise you could lose to a simple ZZ run. That would be both embarassing and costly.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Ellis,

I have a couple of questions.

When playing F2 or F3 and you lose on the strong side and then you go to the weak side and lose the first bet. When you go back to the strong side and you lose that bet. What is your next play?

OK, I already got that one

Also when playing F2 or F3 and you are in a chop, winning every other bet, would you start playing the chop at some time?

Ron, I certainly wouldn't call that a bad move but I don't do it for 2 admittedly weak reasons: 1.) I think F puts you in a stronger position for the end of the ZZ run because it can easily win the 2nd circle of the 2 in a row that ended the ZZ run. 2.) USUALLY, the more you switch the worse off you are. But the key word is "usually" because sometimes such a move makes your day, for instance when the ZZ run goes 17.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Ellis,

Thanks a Million for the clarification.

Also, when are you and Keith planning your next trip to any casino?

I'd like to meet up with you guys sometime this year.

Thanks again and Aloha from the Islands,

Al

Aloha to you too Al and sure, we'd be happy to meet with you!

Link to post
Share on other sites

BTW guys, the reason I sometimes mention BJ in the middle of a Bac forum is because in BJ, I learned that Table Selection is EVERYTHING. Heads up Table Selection ALONE separates the winners from the losers in BJ. When I applied the same technique in Bac, I found that Table Selection is just as important in Bac. But I never would have discovered this if it weren't for BJ.

Link to post
Share on other sites
hawaiianal
BTW guys, the reason I sometimes mention BJ in the middle of a Bac forum is because in BJ, I learned that Table Selection is EVERYTHING. Heads up Table Selection ALONE separates the winners from the losers in BJ. When I applied the same technique in Bac, I found that Table Selection is just as important in Bac. But I never would have discovered this if it weren't for BJ.

Ellis,

When I'm in Las Vegas I usually play in the Big Bac rooms thus tote boards are not usually available.

However, they ALWAYS shuffle with new cards after every shoe.

Card prep (which you refer to when casinos open tables in the early morning) in those rooms are not available since they're always dealing 24hr a day BUT shoe selection, now that's a whole different matter. And I've done injustice to my career not paying attention to what was readily available at that time. NOT ANYMORE, thanks to you.

Since reading through the dozens of posts in addition to the S40, NOR Approach to Baccarat, and 4S threads, I never thought much about Card Prep nor Table Selection.

I agree that a few minutes to inquire or observe will greatly improve any players winning %.

I'm confident with the O/R counts, efficient with determining streak/chop or neutral, from the O/R count but still learning when to get a "Good" LC indication.

For instance;

P112311

O/R count: 1, 0, -1, 0, -1, -2, -1, 0

Events: At play 2 it would be: 1 0 0 0

At play 5 it would be: 1 2 0 0

At play 8 it would be: 1 2 4 0

Obviously 40N type shoe so far, but my question is, in determing the LC and when to go OTR, using play 5 with 2's LC would tell me to go OTR at play 6.

But on play 8, would 2's still be LC? Scoring wise 2's is LC but in events, there were one 2, and one 3.

That is the question....

Al

Link to post
Share on other sites

What is ZZ ? Is it like the chop ? How do we know when ZZ begins or stop ? It might be simple question but I don't really know . Anyone please explain . Thank You. Kip

Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Ellis ,

What to do if playing sys F2,3 and run to TT ( bbppbbpp) Do I need to switch side every two run ( I will get kill ) or stay with the strong side or stay out for the TT stop ?

Thank you

Kip

Link to post
Share on other sites
hawaiianal
What is ZZ ? Is it like the chop ? How do we know when ZZ begins or stop ? It might be simple question but I don't really know . Anyone please explain . Thank You. Kip

ZZ is a chop.... but to count the beginning of a ZZ run remember; it starts and the end of a repeat and ends at the beginning of a repeat.

Example: 12211122 would be a 5 in a row ZZ run - starting with the first 22, that would be the start of ZZ run #1, then from there to the first 1 would be ZZ run #2, from that 1 to the second run would be ZZ run #3, until the run ends at the second 22. That would be a total of 5 ZZ runs in a row.

Al

Link to post
Share on other sites
hawaiianal
Hi Ellis ,

What to do if playing sys F2,3 and run to TT ( bbppbbpp) Do I need to switch side every two run ( I will get kill ) or stay with the strong side or stay out for the TT stop ?

Thank you

Kip

Kip,

If I were playing F2,3 and ran into that pattern (bbppbbpp) making 2's LC I would go OTR until I lost then switch sides.

The O/R count would lead me to OTBL.

Al

Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Ellis ,

What to do if playing sys F2,3 and run to TT ( bbppbbpp) Do I need to switch side every two run ( I will get kill ) or stay with the strong side or stay out for the TT stop ?

Thank you

Kip

Well You COULD go on the run as Al said but high twos, esp. on the wrong side is telling you to go to the F3 mode. (high 2s we play F3 and High 3s we play F2). In F3 we don't attempt switching sides until there is a 3 on the other side. If it goes 4, good, we successfully switched sides but if the 3 stays 3 we lose our switch bet and switch right back. So playing F3 in the TTs you do fine because you never switch sides and you have also a good chance of winning the play that ends the TTs.

However, Hi 2's is also telling you to take a look at OTB4L performance thus far. If you are seeing no 5 or mores and your 1s are not coming more than 2 at a time, there is a good chance that OTB4L 3 would have been out performing F in the first place. But usually you picked F because of high straight runs so there is also a good chance that in spite of the TTs, F is still the right choice.

I realize this all sounds a little complex right now but soon you'll get a good feel for what each of the 3 systems as well as their 2 modes, like and dislike. THEN the whole NOR concept gets easier and easier. You get to a point where it all becomes pretty much automatic.

The list of dislikes for each system is shorter than the list of likes so when first starting it might be a little easier to concentrate on the dislikes rather than the likes.

For instance you might think this way: "well I need to rule out OTB4L on this shoe because I'm seeing too many straight or ZZ runs of 5 or more counted correctly."

That is a little simpler than thinking the other way "I'll select F because the shoe is strong sided and I'm only seeing runs on one side and my OR count is taking big excursions and I'm seeing sporadic 1's

The problem with "jumpimg on runs" until they end is, think about it, you are forcing yourself to lose a bet (the play that ends the run) so you would only consider doing this when you are seeing LOTS of long runs. But in that case you would be playing F anyway, wouldn't you, and F already beats ALL long runs, Straight, ZZ and TT W/O having to "jump on" anything.

This is NOT rocket science. It just seems that way at first.

Link to post
Share on other sites
What is ZZ ? Is it like the chop ? How do we know when ZZ begins or stop ? It might be simple question but I don't really know . Anyone please explain . Thank You. Kip

BTW, this is NOT a simple question given that ALL Baccarat books and forums except us of course, count the length of ZZ runs incorrectly. This leads them to huge mistakes in system design because they think there are more straight runs (the same length) than ZZ runs. They even design systems based on that erroneous "fact" and end up with erroneous systems. Amateurs!

The FACT is that Straight and ZZ runs the same length occur at the SAME exact frequency in the long run, no pun intended.

While we are at it lets cover another mistake all other Baccarat sources make.

They ALL say that there are 19 1's per 72 play shoe and that 1's therefore occur at a higher frequency than they mathematically should (one 1 every 4 plays). They also design systems based on THAT mathematical error. Again, Amateurs.

They are half right. There are indeed an average of 19 1's per shoe, not 18. But this does NOT mean that 1's occur more than 1 every 4 plays as they think.

The "extra" 1 comes from the fact that when the first play of a shoe is a 1, it MIGHT be a real 1 but it has just as good a chance of being the bottom circle of a 2 or 3 or 4 etc. that got cut off at 1 because of where the player happened to put the cut card.

The same is true of a final play 1. We don't know if the shoe ended with a real 1 or if it was the top circle of a run that got cut off by the end of the shoe.

19 ones is true but an illusion. If you think there are more 1's than there should be, try betting on them. You will soon find that there are just as many 1's as there should be.

See, betting on 1's is the same exact thing as betting Opposites. There is no way to bet Opposites on the first play of a shoe is there. You can't because there is no pror play to tell you which side is Opposite. There went your "extra" 1.

And if you strictly bet Opposites you will QUICKLY learn that there are just as many Repeats as Opposites and all the books are wrong. You break even in the long run but you still owe commission.

For YOU guys this may all be somewhat interesting but really non essential minutiae. But for me it is critically important system design fact. We must design to actual fact, not myth.

What IS important for YOU is the FACT that the 3 systems I include in NOR are the 3 BEST systems in Baccarat. They contain no myth, just pure Baccarat FACT. TOGETHER, they are the BEST way Baccarat can be played.

BTW, I consider The Wizard's site the NEXT best source on Baccarat Frequency of Events information but alas it is not in a useful format for YOU. See, what we Players call a 4 in a row he mathematically calls a 3 in a row because a 4 in a row is actually 3 repeats in a row. Therefore any event frequency you look up on the Wizards site will be off by a factor of 100% and therefore quite useless to you because of the format he unfortunately used.

But in addition to format, the Wizard makes other mistakes. For instance he doesn't account for the FACT that you can't have a 20 in a row in the first 19 plays of a shoe or in the last 19 plays. Sorry but that makes all of his statistics decidedly wrong even when you account for format. Highly misleading. But he means well. Your best source of Baccarat Statistics is right here at BTC. My statistics are not only correct but also in a usable format. Player Friendly!

Link to post
Share on other sites
What is ZZ ? Is it like the chop ? How do we know when ZZ begins or stop ? It might be simple question but I don't really know . Anyone please explain . Thank You. Kip

ZZ (Zigzag) is strictly B P B P B P of any length. (S40 wins every bet) All ZZs end with a 2 and the zz length only counts the first circle of that 2 which may go 3 or more.

TTs (Terrible Twos) is BB PP BB PP of any length. (OTB4L wins every bet but all 3 NOR systems beat this common pattern)

212121 or 121212 we call the 212s. (All 3 NOR systems beat this most common pattern)

41312141 we call sporadic 1's (one side is all 1's) (F kills this pattern)

313131 we usually refer to as sporadic 1's but it is also a frequent losing pattern for many systems as BK is finding out. When refering to it as a losing pattern we call it the 313s. Note that all 3 of our NOR systems beat this pattern as well as the 212s and the TTs. We call losing to ANY of these common patterns "the kiss of death".

We refer to events as 1's, 2s, 3s, 4s, etc.

Note the ' we use on 1's but not on 2s, 3s etc. This is to differentiate between 1's and the word "Is".

2+s = 2 or mores; 3+s = 3 or mores

BTW, we will be adding a new Glossary of Terms to the NOR Approach Manual to keep everyone straight on our basic terminology. While our terminology may differ somewhat from others, we have been using this terminology for 30 years. I devised this terminology in the first Baccarat books ever written.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Ellis,

When I'm in Las Vegas I usually play in the Big Bac rooms thus tote boards are not usually available.

However, they ALWAYS shuffle with new cards after every shoe.

Card prep (which you refer to when casinos open tables in the early morning) in those rooms are not available since they're always dealing 24hr a day BUT shoe selection, now that's a whole different matter. And I've done injustice to my career not paying attention to what was readily available at that time. NOT ANYMORE, thanks to you.

Since reading through the dozens of posts in addition to the S40, NOR Approach to Baccarat, and 4S threads, I never thought much about Card Prep nor Table Selection.

I agree that a few minutes to inquire or observe will greatly improve any players winning %.

I'm confident with the O/R counts, efficient with determining streak/chop or neutral, from the O/R count but still learning when to get a "Good" LC indication.

For instance;

P112311

O/R count: 1, 0, -1, 0, -1, -2, -1, 0

Events: At play 2 it would be: 1 0 0 0

At play 5 it would be: 1 2 0 0

At play 8 it would be: 1 2 4 0

Obviously 40N type shoe so far, but my question is, in determing the LC and when to go OTR, using play 5 with 2's LC would tell me to go OTR at play 6.

But on play 8, would 2's still be LC? Scoring wise 2's is LC but in events, there were one 2, and one 3.

That is the question....

Al

An excellent post Al and some good points.

Right, in Big Bac with new cards every shoe, you really have an all in one card prep and shuffle each shoe. And usually no tote board.

This is the game I mostly learned on because Mini Bac or Midi Bac or tote boards were all yet to be invented when I began. This game is still my favorite because it offers certain advantages to the heads up player who knows what to look for.

I had a huge advantage over the other players in this game and at Foxwood the Asians nick named me The Professor for my seemingly uncanny ability to bet the right side.

My advantage? I was the only one there to watch the shuffle while everyone else was off peeing or whatever. I always got my peeing done after I quit the prior shoe but before the new shuffle. So I was ALWAYS there to watch the wash and shuffle with a trained eye and I always knew what system to play before the actual shoe ever started. And I was almost always right. Hence, The Professor!

So what was I looking at and watching for?

1.) Any change in table crew personnel. While this seldom occured, when it did and a card prep member changed I knew to expect ANYTHING in the next shoe so I would hold off to see what the shoe was doing. Otherwise I usually started at play #2.

2.) Did any of the table crew swap card prep jobs? Same thing, wait and see. But this was also rare.

3.) How long was the wash? The crew boss ALWAYS times the wash and at Foxwood it is either 30 seconds or one full minute. 30 seconds ALWAYS means Streak. One minute always means Chop. This is NEVER wrong. It is freaking uncanny!

4.) Was it a "real" wash (finger tips and you see green felt through the cards) or was it an "eye wash" ? Palms of hands, no green felt.

Note: The eyewash means Streak and it is used in conjunction with the short wash to produce Extreme Streak. That is why we saw so many 20s in a row back then.

5. Did anything in the card prep/shuffle change from last time? It almost never did UNLESS the table was losing for the casino. If nothing changed I could expect the same shoe type as last time.

NOW, you give a player like ME advantages like THAT and I'm going to beat your ass every time!

Proof? Keith and I did the exact same thing at the Big Bac new cards table at Hollywood last trip and we not only beat every shoe, we killed every shoe. They had no recourse but to close the table. The casino was mystified.

It is very similar to First Base BJ in clumped cards. You aren't keying off this round. You are keying off the last cards dealt in the prior round. This gives you uncanny high bet accuracy and the casino can't figure out how you are doing it. I often get called for cheating but I'm not cheating in any way.

Enough of that. Lets take a look at your sample P112311. Right, 40 would be a very good choice but I would probably go with OTB4L.

Why?

Well lets correct your OR count first then its easier to see why.

Starting at play 2, your OR count is +1, +2, +1, +2, +1, 0 +1, +2 See that? your count never went passed 2 in either direction and it went back to 0.

This is yet another example where all 3 NOR systems win demonstrating the power of Overlap.

Yes, starting at play 2, 40 does great and gets to +5 already but its highest bet is 3. See that?

Starting at play 3 OTB4L 3 gets to +4 but does it with a high bet of only 2. Yes, it's one unit short but it's also one play short and it will likely be at +6 on the next play. To me, OTB4L slightly edges out 40 in this shoe SO FAR but they are very close and we need to keep our eye on the performance of EACH. But this is the kind of problem you LIKE to have isn't it.

BTW F came in at a distant +2.

But this is yet another shoe start where The professor would likely already be ahead of every other player.

BTW Al while SAP charts are en excellent thing to do and our best players like Andrea and Tom will ALWAYS use them no matter what, I'm designing NOR (while you were out) to not require an SAP chart in order to keep the whole approach as simple as possible for the new guys.

Link to post
Share on other sites

BTW, that wasn't the first table I ever closed. In fact it wasn't even the first table that Keith and I together ever closed. Get him to tell you about the Big Bac table six of us closed at Turning Stone in upstate NY. God, I thought they were going to simply shoot us!

Link to post
Share on other sites

Ellis,

I’ve run into this in my practice a couple of time recently. Especially near the start of a shoe.

What if you are playing Fs but have no score for 2s or 3s. (or, 2s & 3s could be equal later in the shoe.)

A simple example might be: PPPP BBBB PP; You have been on the B side, and lost to 2 P. What is next bet.

Would you bet as with S40 and go to the longer?

Thanks,

RES

Link to post
Share on other sites

Thank you Al and Ellis , I learned many lessons today. I hope someday I will get to the point where it all becomes pretty much of automatic like you said.

Kip

Link to post
Share on other sites
Ellis,

I’ve run into this in my practice a couple of time recently. Especially near the start of a shoe.

What if you are playing Fs but have no score for 2s or 3s. (or, 2s & 3s could be equal later in the shoe.)

A simple example might be: PPPP BBBB PP; You have been on the B side, and lost to 2 P. What is next bet.

Would you bet as with S40 and go to the longer?

Thanks,

RES

Good question Ron and this frequently comes up. No, with nothing else to go on I go with F2, the shorter. See, if you have no 2s or 3s but you've decided on F this can only mean you are dealing with 4+s just like your example. And with 4+s, esp. on opposite sides, you want to be getting on those runs as early as possible. This all points to F2.

With 40 and OTB4L we seem to do a little better starting with the longer PL (it covers more events) but with F it's just the opposite and we are better off starting with the shorter PL, F2 because the fact that we have chosen F usually means we are dealing with long runs and the sooner we get on them the better. All of this assumes we have nothing else to go on exactly as you said.

But from there you keep a close eye on 2s and 3s esp. when they come up on the weak side.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Thank you Al and Ellis , I learned many lessons today. I hope someday I will get to the point where it all becomes pretty much of automatic like you said.

Kip

I remember those days well when I was trying to figure all this stuff out for myself. There was NOTHING to go on and no source of guidance. No internet and no books except one chapter in a book by Frank Barstow. I poured over every word he wrote but unfortunately I soon learned that much of it was in error. Frank was one of those that mistakingly thought there were too many 1's. Fortunately the casinos didn't have their act together yet either and they were easier to beat than they are today. Most every shoe was either chop or streak. I watched closely as the casinos learned how to fix that using the same technology they had developed in BJ. Once they learned that shuffle technology is everything in Bac, just as it is in BJ, their profits soared from 3% to 26% while 20 in a rows dissappeared from the face of the Earth. Everything I teach you is based on Casino technology because the players really suck and there is little to be learned from them except what NOT to do.

Link to post
Share on other sites

A player once asked me: "Ellis, I'm going to the Casino tonite to play Bac and I've never played before. Can you give me a tip?" I replied "Sure! Look for the game where the players are doing the worst. Grab a seat and bet dead against them." Yep, he won big time!

Link to post
Share on other sites
BTW, that wasn't the first table I ever closed. In fact it wasn't even the first table that Keith and I together ever closed. Get him to tell you about the Big Bac table six of us closed at Turning Stone in upstate NY. God, I thought they were going to simply shoot us!

Well, OK, I'll tell you because Keith can't post for shit!

I had developed an extremely aggressive system called the Ladder System. It is an up as you win system that essentially bets on 3+s. Every time there is a 3 or more you win your 3 bet prog and move up to the next more aggessive prog. There are an avg. of 9 3+s per shoe but back then there was even more! You start betting on the opposite side of the first 2 in the shoe.

Your first prog is 123 up as you win. When you win that you go to the other side and bet 246, then 4 8 12, then 8 16 24.

See the first bet of each prog is the second bet of your last prog. Your 2nd bet is twice your first bet and your 3rd bet is your first and second bet added together. You win your prog every time the shoe produces a 3 or more and back then 3 or mores were far too common. Very, very aggressive! Don't try this at home. On second thought ONLY try it at home, NOT in a casino.

Anyway I had just completed a ladder seminar at Foxwood wherein I absolutey killed their $100 Big Bac table in the public exhibition I used to do after every seminar. Beat them soundly 3 shoes in a row. So when I announced I would be playing at Turning Stone is upstate NY the next week 6 of us showed up.

We played Turning Stone's brand new $100 Big Bac table. The guys were mostly betting single blacks but a couple of us were betting double blacks including me.

The first shoe was high in 3+s as usual and we won about 100 units each all betting exactly the same way. It was by far the biggest loss Turning Stone had ever suffered and the Pit Boss was already making frantic phone calls to his Indian bosses.

The funniest part was when Jack McCan who had got there late and just in time for the worst part of the first shoe mumbled: "Play my chips I'm going to the John." Jack, also playing double blacks, was substancially down when he left for the John but while he was gone we hit a 3,3. Jack comes back and takes one look at his huge pile of chips, says nothing and starts walking away. I yell, "Jack, where are you going?" "Back to the john!"

The 2nd shoe starts B233332 !

Starting at play 3 we won 14 straight bets in a row and had just won the 32 bet. Together we were up over a thousand units in that shoe alone. They immediately covered the table and threw us out. That cover stayed on that table for 2 years.

It was fillet mignon for everybody that night. I bought!

Thank God they didn't shoot us. Those guys just can't take a joke!

Link to post
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


×
×
  • Create New...