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NOR Questions & Answers by E. Clifton Davis and Various ECD Players March 11, 2011


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Res, your points are well taken with regard to utilizing overlay and it really is a matter of personal preference.

The visual or mental system overlay can certainly be developed over a period of time, but lacks the inherent advantages of playing and recording the results for each system. For starters, the visual method is more prone to mistakes. In the "heat" of casino battle, with your money on the line, it is comforting to know that you minimized mental errors by actually playing each system and recording the results on your scorecard. For me, playing & recording results is less tiresome than mentally calculating and trying to remember what you saw on your scorecard.

Also, there are times when you might need to review 15 to 20 plays to select the very BEST system, and visual overlay becomes increasingly more difficult.

Playing and recording all 3 systems has the added advantage of preserving a written record for later study and review.

As I mentioned in my previous post, I think Casno's ideas have considerable merit, but should be analyzed at a later date, for perhaps an advanced NOR approach.

Don

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Very Good Kkriats:

34 Units with very low bets, no more than 5 units net betting and this was done mechanically with all three systems at one time! But, this is only one shoe! IF you can consistently produce such results for most every shoe played; then this would be one easy way of applying NOR...Don't you think?

The way your Score Card is set up makes it kind of difficult to read each method in play, but if you are ok with that then please keep it simple for you. I prefer having 3 columns with P/B and circles on each and then net bet my bets and total. In fact, if you could go back and make your score card this way, it would make it easier for the others to see your Nor process of each method as it unfolds via the rules.

Here is what I am doing also with no net bet. I am just placing an X where the hand result should win for each method in each column. Once I see 2 in a row wins or 2 in 3 wins of my Xs, I then begin my bet progression in that column and stay in that column until I have a loss of 2 in a row. I then look at the other columns once again for 2 in a row or 2 in 3 wins as a trigger to begin betting in that column until a loss of 2 in a row.

I play this way all through the shoe. Sometimes there will be No Bets, because no wins are occurring in any of the columns and sometimes you will continue on the same column you were on because of a 2 in a row, etc. happens in the same column. By doing this, I have found that I get upwards of 50+% wins to loss ratio. And any good bet progression should win with that number. This makes Nor much more mechanical and easier to play any shoe!

Whatever the case, thanks for giving my idea a try and please don't stop now. Continue to explore this direction; it may well be beneficial in the long run to play such a way for others.

Don:

Please understand that I am not in any way wanting to hold up Ellis on the Nor manual in progress. If any new ideas pop up and serve to be another avenue of interest and positive in their results. Well, it could just be added to the manual at a later date under say, Optional play possibilities, because there are many kinds of people who may well play better in other ways. I am more a visual person myself, as others are more in their head figuring type of players. "You can take 3 books on the same subject, but one of them will read better to you than the others and thus you will understand, learn or process the information in a far better light."

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Very Good Kkriats:

34 Units with very low bets, no more than 5 units net betting and this was done mechanically with all three systems at one time! But, this is only one shoe! IF you can consistently produce such results for most every shoe played; then this would be one easy way of applying NOR...Don't you think?

The way your Score Card is set up makes it kind of difficult to read each method in play, but if you are ok with that then please keep it simple for you. I prefer having 3 columns with P/B and circles on each and then net bet my bets and total. In fact, if you could go back and make your score card this way, it would make it easier for the others to see your Nor process of each method as it unfolds via the rules.

Here is what I am doing also with no net bet. I am just placing an X where the hand result should win for each method in each column. Once I see 2 in a row wins or 2 in 3 wins of my Xs, I then begin my bet progression in that column and stay in that column until I have a loss of 2 in a row. I then look at the other columns once again for 2 in a row or 2 in 3 wins as a trigger to begin betting in that column until a loss of 2 in a row.

I play this way all through the shoe. Sometimes there will be No Bets, because no wins are occurring in any of the columns and sometimes you will continue on the same column you were on because of a 2 in a row, etc. happens in the same column. By doing this, I have found that I get upwards of 50+% wins to loss ratio. And any good bet progression should win with that number. This makes Nor much more mechanical and easier to play any shoe!

Whatever the case, thanks for giving my idea a try and please don't stop now. Continue to explore this direction; it may well be beneficial in the long run to play such a way for others.

Don:

Please understand that I am not in any way wanting to hold up Ellis on the Nor manual in progress. If any new ideas pop up and serve to be another avenue of interest and positive in their results. Well, it could just be added to the manual at a later date under say, Optional play possibilities, because there are many kinds of people who may well play better in other ways. I am more a visual person myself, as others are more in their head figuring type of players. "You can take 3 books on the same subject, but one of them will read better to you than the others and thus you will understand, learn or process the information in a far better light."

Thanks Casno

I wanted something quick and because I am so familiar with NOR systems it was easy for me to have all in the same picture and to decide quickly the amount of net bet. The only problem doing this way is to have a pen with three colors. It is true that this is one shoe and it needs many shoes to confirm the success.

But if I understand well you are waiting for 2 wins in order to start play each individual system. I don't know if this can give an advantage to the whole process because first you loose the 2 wins and second when you start betting happens(usually) to face another 2 loses. The tests will give an answer after many shoes.

BTW could you post a score card with a played shoe?

Thanks

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Wow, I almost don't know where to start. Leave it to Casno to get the juices flowing. Well let me pick one at random and start with net betting:

I initiated the concept of net betting a long time ago and it has many advantages including low table bets. But having designed it and having played it 8 ways from Sunday, I think I am also the most qualified to address its drawbacks.

You can net bet almost anything: B vs P; O vs R; OT vs T; double OT vs double T, whatever. The important thing is to select oponents that are running about equal. If Ps are running about = to Bs that's a good net bet opportunity. If 0s are running about = to Rs, THAT is a good net bet opportunity. And so forth. In fact, the more random the cards are the better net bet opportunity we have.

BTW, that is yet another nail in the coffin of the Random crowd who say the game cannot be beat because it is random. Bullshit! If we could RELY on random cards we could beat any game where one of the counts OvR, BvP, OTvT stays below 8 either plus or minus.

Think about that! In random cards, usually all 3 counts stay below 8. In fact, that is what defines "random" from "biased". Random cards are NOT impossible to beat. They are the EASIEST cards to beat both in Bac AND BJ. In Bac, we would simply net bet. End of story. We win nearly every shoe. In BJ we would simply play Basic Strategy and win every shoe. And where would the casinos be? GONE WITH THE WIND.

So, do you get it? The casinos CAN'T have random cards! And those who profess the cards are random are just plain ignorant. The FACTS just don't fit their simple minded world. Well, sorry, didn't mean to get off on a tangent.

So what is the drawback of net betting??? Simple! You are ALWAYS betting on the side that is losing the most often. THINK about it. You are always betting on the side with the highest number. HOW did it get the highest number? LOSING! There ain't no other way.

THAT is why I dropped net betting from the NOR Approach!

So OK, you net bet all 3 systems. Fine! We call that "triple net betting". How does that end up? We end up betting the system with the highest entry. Which system is that? The one that is LOSING the most often. Now, what is it we are trying to do with NOR. Bet the system that is WINNING the most often - NOT the system that is LOSING the most often. Sure, it MIGHT win. In fact it will likely win because all 3 are good systems with lots of overlap. BUT, what are we BEST off with, the system that loses the most or the system that wins the most? Any questions?

BUT, consider this: Suppose we did set up an U1D1 triple net bet score card. Ha, it would tell us which system is winning the most often at every point in the shoe. It would be the system with the lowest entry.

I'm not saying we should do this but it is an interesting thought isn't it!

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Res, your points are well taken with regard to utilizing overlay and it really is a matter of personal preference.

The visual or mental system overlay can certainly be developed over a period of time, but lacks the inherent advantages of playing and recording the results for each system. For starters, the visual method is more prone to mistakes. In the "heat" of casino battle, with your money on the line, it is comforting to know that you minimized mental errors by actually playing each system and recording the results on your scorecard. For me, playing & recording results is less tiresome than mentally calculating and trying to remember what you saw on your scorecard.

Also, there are times when you might need to review 15 to 20 plays to select the very BEST system, and visual overlay becomes increasingly more difficult.

Playing and recording all 3 systems has the added advantage of preserving a written record for later study and review.

As I mentioned in my previous post, I think Casno's ideas have considerable merit, but should be analyzed at a later date, for perhaps an advanced NOR approach.

Don

Casno & Sir Donald,

I agree it's a nice concept. But there are three different systems, all with different prog lengths and 2 modes for each.

My point(s): If you are ignoring the OTR bets you are just as well off with the OR count and the event count. If you are not ignoring the OTR bets it will be almost impossible to keep track and keep up in a live game.

I do agree that an overlay is similar, but that can be done quite easily by looking back on your scorecard. I think that that is an ability one must work on developing. I also agree that it might be a good idea for learning the method.

res

Well, you are both right. Some people look at a score card or tote board and automatically see the best system to play. Others look at the same card and see a bunch of incoherant, disjointed cirles. It's got nothing to do with intelligence. Some people can sing, others can't but most think they can but really can't. Hmmm, those last seem to drink a lot too.

You've got to go by what works for YOU. If you need to see all 3 systems played, fine. That is easy enough to do. If you can visualize overlays in your head, that's fine too. Whatever gets you to the system with the highest hit rate thus far. That is what is important!

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This brings up an interesting conversation I had with Keith yesterday about this phone business:

What is the biggest stumbling block for most players? I think the answer is tote boards. Some can glance at a toteboard from two isles away and automatically know exactly which way that table is biased and to what degree. Others see a meaningless bunch of nothing. These last guys are at a HUGE disadvantage because they can't take advantage of table selection. But how can they learn W/O many trips to the casinos? Well, I think there is an easy way:

Look, casinos are not going to let you take pictures of actual games. In fact, you'll likely get tossed when they catch you a second time.

But, who cares if you take pictures of tote boards? Nobody is guarding the tote boards. Just be discrete. If we had a library of tote board pictures posted we could study them together. What do you think? It would sure be a first. But we have lots of firsts here.

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So OK, you net bet all 3 systems. Fine! We call that "triple net betting". How does that end up? We end up betting the system with the highest entry. Which system is that? The one that is LOSING the most often. Now, what is it we are trying to do with NOR. Bet the system that is WINNING the most often - NOT the system that is LOSING the most often. Sure, it MIGHT win. In fact it will likely win because all 3 are good systems with lots of overlap. BUT, what are we BEST off with, the system that loses the most or the system that wins the most? Any questions?

Ellis

I think this is usually happens when we bet the opposite of a certain system lets say OT vs T with a negative prog. But here we have a different situation. We have three different systems to play in the same time and with these systems usually two of them are winning and one is losing. For example if you have ZZ run S40 & F are doing well and OT not. This applies to every combination of 1s, 2s, 3s&4s if we are going for 3 loses, maybe not so well all the times but we are close . The only situation where the 2 systems are losing and 1 is winning is straight runs following by straight runs. But as usual this is not a problem because there is the magic touch of the OTR.

This is my personal thinking and I am not saying that NOR as it stands is not a winning approach. But lets explore this new idea and see how it performs. On the other hand as you mention the import thing is to find a way to win, all the others are details.

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Hello everyone, this note is meant to be constructive not mean spirited. All you need to do is go online and practise this stuff for free! If in fact if you are having trouble reading toteboards you can learn from there's for free! You can make up all the practise routines you need. SCORECARD,TOTEBOARD,COUNT,SYSTEM'S,STREAK,CHOP,NEUTRAL. Whatever you need to work on can be done at your computer. I know it's not the same as a live game but at least you will know how to do the things Ellis teaches. Ellis please do not let this get into WRITEING a million things on the scorecard. Everyone needs to practise, if you work with some part of this you don't understand it will come. If I can do it anyone can. Brian.............................

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Ellis, please provide an example or detailed illustration of switching between F2 and F3 or F3 to F2. Also clarify if, when playing a shoe blind, we start with F2 or F3....and appropriate rationale.

After reviewing scores of previous posts and attachments with shoe samples, there are none, which I could find, which clearly illustrate the correct switching technique......and there appears to be much confusion and contradictory comments on what should be a very simple concept.........If we lose to a 2 on the WEAK side, we switch to F3 and if we lose to a 3, we switch to F2. Hopefully, we can nail this down and never mention it again. Thanks.

Don

Don, somehow you are making this harder than it actually is.

Let's say you know you are at a streaky table and you therefore know that you are going to start with F.

First, you are waiting for a 2 in a row on either side to start the game. This always happens pretty quick because the only thing that can delay it is a ZZ run. You bet directly under that 2 on the same side as the 2. Recognize that side at that point MUST have the most circles so we call it the Strong Side. You bet either 0 or 1 unit depending on your confidence that the table is streaky.

You stay on that side until there is a 2 on the weak (the other) side. Now you must either decide between F 2 and 3 or skip the bet altogether and make the decision next time according to what happened this time.

Now this is always true. If the 2 on the weak side stayed at 2, you are automatically in Mode 3 (F3) at that point. If the 2 on the weak side went to 3 or more (the only two possibilities) you are automatically in Mode 2 (F2). Then you simply continue the game that same way.

Once in either Mode you stay in that mode until there is a 2 on the other side and you bet according to which mode you are in. If that 2 stays 2 you are automatically in Mode 3 at that point regardless of which mode you were in before that 2. Likewise if the weak side 2 goes to 3 or more you are automatically now in mode 2 regardless...

2s on the weak side equals Mode 3

3+s on the weak side = Mode 2

It's that simple.

When you are starting at the beginning of a shoe it is best to hold off on the F2 v F3 decision until you see what the first weak 2 does. Now you know.

But starting mid shoe, as you should, you simply start on the strongest side. Then you can look back to see what the last weak 2 did. If it stayed at 2 you are in F3 mode. If it went to 3+ you are in F2 Mode.

Now, as I have said before, the ONLY thing that can go wrong is when you get alternating 2s and 3+s on the weak side. This is rare because that many 2s and 3s would usually put you in OTB4L. But not always. You CAN get very streaky strong sided shoes where the weak side simply keeps alternating between 2s and 3s. If the weak side is never going to 4 you can go to F4. But if the weak side IS producing 4 or mores you are best off to go to F1 which is the same as simply betting repeats. And the best way to do that is RD1.

Play a couple practice shoes and you'll soon see that these instructions are simple as pie. Then you'll feel a little embarrased, which is why I didn't jump on your question the first time around.

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Ellis

I think this is usually happens when we bet the opposite of a certain system lets say OT vs T with a negative prog. But here we have a different situation. We have three different systems to play in the same time and with these systems usually two of them are winning and one is losing. For example if you have ZZ run S40 & F are doing well and OT not. This applies to every combination of 1s, 2s, 3s&4s if we are going for 3 loses, maybe not so well all the times but we are close . The only situation where the 2 systems are losing and 1 is winning is straight runs following by straight runs. But as usual this is not a problem because there is the magic touch of the OTR.

This is my personal thinking and I am not saying that NOR as it stands is not a winning approach. But lets explore this new idea and see how it performs. On the other hand as you mention the import thing is to find a way to win, all the others are details.

Well, OK. In other words if OTB4L happens to say bet 2 on B. And, S40 says bet 3 on B. And F says bet 1 on P. You would bet 4 on B, right? Fine. What I am saying is the system that is doing the worst is the one that will usually be dictating your bet placement if you net bet in the normal way. I don't think you want the worst system to be dictating anything. The system with the lowest cumulative bet total is the one that is doing best but you are betting on it the least. That is the point I'm trying to get across.

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Sometimes the simplest things can sound the most complex when you attempt to put a simple thing into words.

Try explaining the function of a door knob. You can end up with volumes yet the reader still doesn't know what the hell a door knob is for.

Ha, let your cat show you. His little brain figured it all out a long time ago. And he can't read.

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Ellis, although I had requested an example, not a narrative, your explanation was quite good and will suffice. Your reading a lot into my asking for an example or illustration depicting the correct switching technique between F2 and F3. I have no difficulty playing any of the NOR systems. However, I noted that there was considerable confusion in scores of previous posts regarding F2,3 switching techniques......and therefore my question was posted in order to clarify any misunderstanding.

Remember there are no dumb or embarrassing questions EVER......only stupid students who got that way by NOT asking simple questions.!! Thanks for listening.

Don

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Well said Don! Samples are difficult for me right now with this new computer. And each sample only depicts one set of circumstances. I think a simple concept like F can be best explained in text format.

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Hey Ellis,

Another shoe for you to look at!

P11111211911

B211412121311

P21

Played from play 2 with S40 with 345 prog (Sat through previous shoe and it was choppy, 345 was doing well) and lost my first 345 prog to that 9 streak! Waited for the shoe to end then resumed betting.

Anyways continued this until the third column where i lost my 345 prog again and left with +10 units. However my high was +31! You talk about capturing, but thats usually during late 3rd/4th column? The shoe should remain the same right? So when's the best time to quit when you got so high but then suddenly it's not going to plan?

Plasia

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Hey Ellis,

Another shoe for you to look at!

P11111211911

B211412121311

P21

Played from play 2 with S40 with 345 prog (Sat through previous shoe and it was choppy, 345 was doing well) and lost my first 345 prog to that 9 streak! Waited for the shoe to end then resumed betting.

Anyways continued this until the third column where i lost my 345 prog again and left with +10 units. However my high was +31! You talk about capturing, but thats usually during late 3rd/4th column? The shoe should remain the same right? So when's the best time to quit when you got so high but then suddenly it's not going to plan?

Well Plasia, you did better than anyone could have expected, particularly because you gambled on the 345 so early because of the prior shoe. Good move!

A shoe that has only one repeat in 10 plays and then 8 repeats in a row is so rare that it is not worth worrying about.

But, esp with the 345 +30 is sort of a magic number. I ALWAYS capture at +30 once I have surpassed it. Therefore the best play would have been at +31 go back to a 1 bet for the next play and capture +30. Or, even simply quit at +31. With our progs, you are asking for it whenever you keep playing past +30.

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Hello everyone, this note is meant to be constructive not mean spirited. All you need to do is go online and practise this stuff for free! If in fact if you are having trouble reading toteboards you can learn from there's for free! You can make up all the practise routines you need. SCORECARD,TOTEBOARD,COUNT,SYSTEM'S,STREAK,CHOP,NEUTRAL. Whatever you need to work on can be done at your computer. I know it's not the same as a live game but at least you will know how to do the things Ellis teaches. Ellis please do not let this get into WRITEING a million things on the scorecard. Everyone needs to practise, if you work with some part of this you don't understand it will come. If I can do it anyone can. Brian.............................

Well said Brian! Practice makes perfect!

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hi Ellis. i have a little question here, how to know which table are the most bias and which table are not

In a word, from the tote boards or score cards. You want to see the board strongly favoring something such as Opposites or Repeats or Bank or Player, a lack or abundance of runs. Too many or not enough 1's or 1s and 2s or 3s or 4 or mores.

What you DON'T want to see is an evenly dispersed board with everything occurring at it's normal frequency.

The easiest and quickest thing to see is extreme chop or extreme streak. The more extreme the better. A board strongly favoring one side is also easy to see and makes a good F situation.

This might sound hard but it actually comes very easy with a little practice. And it gives you a huge leg up on the other players who usually take the first empty seat they see and promptly lose.

Very often you find a board so biased you don't even need to test the water flat betting. You can move right in with your prog. Often it is so obvious you can start right out with your 234 or even your 345.

In most casino set ups I seldom need to test the water. I already know what to bet before I sit down. I often have my bet down even before I'm comfortably seated. In a good situation, the quicker you can get your game underway the better. Just remember that the opposite is also true.

When selecting a casino, the more open tables they have the better off you are and the more likely you will come out of there a winner.

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Ellis:

I understand that if you see a shoe in progress and know what to play with that shoe as you sit down is good and well, but can you necessarily assume that as you sit down for the next shoe coming out to get the same output. As there are two deck setups being played at a table, Red/Blue, etc. Even you stated at one time that sometimes the Blue shoe can be different than the Red shoe...in that what happens in one shoe may not occur in the other! So, if you see a hot table based on the red shoe and you begin playing on the blue shoe...could this not get you playing wrong method based on the red shoe?

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Ellis:

I understand that if you see a shoe in progress and know what to play with that shoe as you sit down is good and well, but can you necessarily assume that as you sit down for the next shoe coming out to get the same output. As there are two deck setups being played at a table, Red/Blue, etc. Even you stated at one time that sometimes the Blue shoe can be different than the Red shoe...in that what happens in one shoe may not occur in the other! So, if you see a hot table based on the red shoe and you begin playing on the blue shoe...could this not get you playing wrong method based on the red shoe?

See what I mean - Casno asks good questions.

What I'm saying Casno is that, esp. when you are starting a new playing session, you are, by far, better off to start mid shoe at a table where the tote board is highly biased and already telling you what system and what mode to play rather than starting in the blind at the beginning of a shoe and flat betting until you know what to play. Start out by finding an easy win.

From there, unless you have also seen the prior shoe, your next shoe (the other color) you are playing mostly in the blind. So you start cautious with 0 or flat 1 bets until you know what to play. You can't assume the other color will be the same and at some casinos it's never the same.

Now, once you know what BOTH colors are doing you can play more confidently. That is where you are trying to get to. But watch for the worm to turn esp if the players are winning.

Now, casinos that use new cards every shoe complete with card prep and shuffle also often produce the same shoe type every shoe but you need to verify this at your selected table. VERY often it's OTB4L.

I have also seen factory preshuffled cards produce the same shoe type shoe after shoe but not always. Again, verify.

Each casino has its own tricks of the trade. You need to be heads up all the time. But good observance can pay off very well. We have our tricks too.

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I am headed to Las Vegas in a couple of days (staying at the Rio). Could anyone tell me which casinos have Baccarat tables with significant biases or trends? For example, x casino is often streaky, y casino has some tables that are consistently Neutral, etc. In other words, where are the best places to play right now and why?

I think keeping such a list of "good" casinos by location (Vegas, AC, etc.) would be very helpful for members to zero in on the best playing conditions.

Also, did I hear correctly that the Gold Coast is now closed?

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If Gold Coast is, in fact, closed, which would not be surprising given the economy esp in Vegas and AC these days, you are in pretty good shape right there. I have stayed at the Rio many times and have done very well within walking distance. Be sure to get a comp for the dinner show. It's usually pretty good. It's so slow getting around town nowadays that once you start traveling around it takes up all your time. Better to get a little exercise and walk.

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The Gold Coast casino is open and apparently doing quite well. The have a total of 14 baccarat tables, with 10 tables generally available most any hour. A great place to play with a min/max of $10-5K. You might also try Palace Station and South Point. Have a great trip and win some serious $$.

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