nor NOR Questions & Answers by E. Clifton Davis and Various ECD Players March 11, 2011

[TangNangDoaHoa]

Hi Ellis

i played 3 shoes today with a score of, +16 S40, -7 OTB4L, +13 F2,3. In the shoe i got down -7 cuz of the zz mode switched back and forth , i dunno if i'd play the mode right or not, here it is first it showed (21112 mode 2) (3112 mode 3) < had play mode 2 due to the prior mode, then i switched to mode 3 later it goes back to mode 2 , then mode 3 .. haha i was so confused luckily i had no confident at first in the shoe so i was just flat bet OTR still got me down -7 arggggg , did i play the mode right Ellis? Thanks

[Plasia87]

-1 -3 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +1 -1 -4 0 -2 +1 -2 -6 -4 -6 -8

B12112517

B2111211

Result = -8 Real Money, high +1

SAP Score 7/8/0/8 to Avg 7/6/4/4

System/Mode = F3

Started with s40 then switched to F3. Didn't go well. HOWEVER, Just played it S40-2 and got around +10 units. Not real money though lol. But even the the count was sometimes minus and mainly 0, s40 still beats it. I guess thats what Ellis takes about overlap. Its pretty much s40 without that 5 and 7. You go OTR after 2 loosing bets for a bet and just wait for the streak to end. Then you resume opposites. Should of picked this up! But a good learning shoe. No 3s means 3s are going to 4s which we can accommodate using s40-2.

Good learning shoe!

[Guest]

-1 -3 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +1 -1 -4 0 -2 +1 -2 -6 -4 -6 -8

B12112517

B2111211

Result = -8 Real Money, high +1

SAP Score 7/8/0/8 to Avg 7/6/4/4

System/Mode = F3

Started with s40 then switched to F3. Didn't go well. HOWEVER, Just played it S40-2 and got around +10 units. Not real money though lol. But even the the count was sometimes minus and mainly 0, s40 still beats it. I guess thats what Ellis takes about overlap. Its pretty much s40 without that 5 and 7. You go OTR after 2 loosing bets for a bet and just wait for the streak to end. Then you resume opposites. Should of picked this up! But a good learning shoe. No 3s means 3s are going to 4s which we can accommodate using s40-2.

Good learning shoe!

Right Plasia S40 is correct. But then, S40-3 because there are no 3s. The surprise 7 gives you a hickup but it is clear sailing before and after that. You'll find s40-3 handles the 7 better. Keep up yhe good work.

[Plasia87]

Ellis in the NOR manual you say:

'Therefore, to get our 3rd bet right most often we need to know what 3s are doing. Are 3s mostly staying 3 (Mode 3) or are 3s mostly going to 4 (Mode 2)'

So why would you play s40-3 in the above shoe? All 3's were going to 4s so therefore it's Mode 2?

:S

[Guest]

Ellis in the NOR manual you say:

'Therefore, to get our 3rd bet right most often we need to know what 3s are doing. Are 3s mostly staying 3 (Mode 3) or are 3s mostly going to 4 (Mode 2)'

So why would you play s40-3 in the above shoe? All 3's were going to 4s so therefore it's Mode 2?

:S

You are right Plasia. I'm wrong. I shouldn't have tried to reply to you so late last night. I should have waited until this morning when my brain was working.

[Guest]

Hi Ellis

i played 3 shoes today with a score of, +16 S40, -7 OTB4L, +13 F2,3. In the shoe i got down -7 cuz of the zz mode switched back and forth , i dunno if i'd play the mode right or not, here it is first it showed (21112 mode 2) (3112 mode 3) < had play mode 2 due to the prior mode, then i switched to mode 3 later it goes back to mode 2 , then mode 3 .. haha i was so confused luckily i had no confident at first in the shoe so i was just flat bet OTR still got me down -7 arggggg , did i play the mode right Ellis? Thanks

Hi Tang. Right, your own criticism of yourself is correct. Unless you are the only player at the table (even then most casinos let you bet both B and P for a couple hands) you don't bet at all until you have a reason. This shoe started with chop so it is clearly an S40 shoe. I usually start in mode 3 until the shoe produces a 4 or more. That way the 3 wouldn't have hurt you. Next time don't be so anxious to start betting when you have no idea of the shoe. Wait until you do. The first play is always meaningless. The second play is almost meaningless. The game really starts on the 3rd play.

[Guest]

The Gold Coast casino is open and apparently doing quite well. The have a total of 14 baccarat tables, with 10 tables generally available most any hour. A great place to play with a min/max of $10-5K. You might also try Palace Station and South Point. Have a great trip and win some serious $$.

A belated thanks Don. For some reason I didn't get a notification of your post. I've probably got my settings screwed up. Happy to hear all is well at G.C. I really like the Bac setup there and the casino host Mgr does a great job.

BTW the Bac table row next to the wall is traditional same cards every shoe mini bac. The other row is factory preshuffled new cards every shoe. I prefer the traditional but not by much.

[zebra]

Hi Ellis

I'm sure this has been asked and answered before, but I don't know where.

When playing a 345 loop what do you use for the quitting point? -8 is too

low because you can get there in a few losing bets. It is also easy to make

up the loss and still get into a good shoe. I'm thinking in the neighborhood

of -16 to -20. I like the 345 because I can play $10 units on a $25 min table,

which is often all you can find.

[d0ma1n]

Hi All,

Just back from Seoul, Korea. Amazing thing happened as the hotel that I stayed have a casino.

Didn't expect that, but nice experience playing there, not crowded, nice dealer, and the funny thing is that I don't understand what other players were speaking.

So a total peace for me which I can have more focus on the bac game. There are 16 tables (2 non-smoking) there, all are mini-bac with 6 decks, so can finish a shoe in 40-50 hands, very fast.

Played four sessions, and again back as a winner with NOR for this trip.

Have many new experience this time, personally I can conclude that NOR is a universal winning approach for me.

This is my 4th trip this year, and all winning trip with just using NOR.

The new cards is factory pre shuffled, and most of the shoe are neutral first, then streak or vice versa.

I applied S40 and OTBL most of the time and kill many shoes ! Very seldom applying F2/3.

One thing I played differently is the stop loss (-8), I didn't really stop at -8, if I did, I will come back even with bigger win.

Since I am there to enjoy the new experience (first time playing in Korea), so i just let it flow, and make sure I am betting with the casino chip instead of mine.

And second is applying an aggressive prog when hitting the right mode. My highest bet is 3 units .. very rare that I bet 4 units ( there is no 5 units bet this time ).

Example, if I know I am in the right mode, after winning 1 unit (1st bet), then I will bet 3 unit (2nd bet), then 2 units (3rd bet), then 2 units (4th bet), then back to 1 unit (5th bet). If lose any of the prog 1322, at any point, i will start back at 1 unit. It is a more conservative yet aggressive when you are in a good shoe, instead just flat betting at 1 unit. I remembered Ellis mention that it is a sin when you don't double up your prog when in a winning mode.

My bet unit size is Korean Won 10,000 ( which is 3x in my local currency ), for this trip, most of my prog is 123.

Will try to scan some shoes for review here. Anyway, it is a good experience, nice environment, nice tote board with all the statistics, they even show a lots of trend to make it easy for the gamblers, nice dealers, nice food.

Another thing I want to add is that, everyone start looking at me instead of the nice tote board when my chips keep on stacking up, and their is the other way round.

Some gamblers even wait for me to place the bet, when I don't place the bet, no one is placing it .. amazing ! Some sit right beside me, and look at my score card and try to ask something which i don't understand, and of course they are puzzled with the circles, and why there are numbers in circles, and columns, etc.

Cheers

KS

Edited July 8, 2011 by d0ma1n

[Guest]

Hi All,

Just back from Seoul, Korea. Amazing thing happened as the hotel that I stayed have a casino.

Didn't expect that, but nice experience playing there, not crowded, nice dealer, and the funny thing is that I don't understand what other players were speaking.

So a total peace for me which I can have more focus on the bac game. There are 16 tables (2 non-smoking) there, all are mini-bac with 6 decks, so can finish a shoe in 40-50 hands, very fast.

Played four sessions, and again back as a winner with NOR for this trip.

Have many new experience this time, personally I can conclude that NOR is a universal winning approach for me.

This is my 4th trip this year, and all winning trip with just using NOR.

The new cards is factory pre shuffled, and most of the shoe are neutral first, then streak or vice versa.

I applied S40 and OTBL most of the time and kill many shoes ! Very seldom applying F2/3.

One thing I played differently is the stop loss (-8), I didn't really stop at -8, if I did, I will come back even with bigger win.

Since I am there to enjoy the new experience (first time playing in Korea), so i just let it flow, and make sure I am betting with the casino chip instead of mine.

And second is applying an aggressive prog when hitting the right mode. My highest bet is 3 units .. very rare that I bet 4 units ( there is no 5 units bet this time ).

Example, if I know I am in the right mode, after winning 1 unit (1st bet), then I will bet 3 unit (2nd bet), then 2 units (3rd bet), then 2 units (4th bet), then back to 1 unit (5th bet). If lose any of the prog 1322, at any point, i will start back at 1 unit. It is a more conservative yet aggressive when you are in a good shoe, instead just flat betting at 1 unit. I remembered Ellis mention that it is a sin when you don't double up your prog when in a winning mode.

My bet unit size is Korean Won 10,000 ( which is 3x in my local currency ), for this trip, most of my prog is 123.

Will try to scan some shoes for review here. Anyway, it is a good experience, nice environment, nice tote board with all the statistics, they even show a lots of trend to make it easy for the gamblers, nice dealers, nice food.

Another thing I want to add is that, everyone start looking at me instead of the nice tote board when my chips keep on stacking up, and their is the other way round.

Some gamblers even wait for me to place the bet, when I don't place the bet, no one is placing it .. amazing ! Some sit right beside me, and look at my score card and try to ask something which i don't understand, and of course they are puzzled with the circles, and why there are numbers in circles, and columns, etc.

Cheers

KS

KS, you have no idea of how much good it does my heart to see one of my students perform so well. Your post probably added several days to my life. It is one thing for a student to have a winning trip. But it is quite a different thing when a student has several in a row.

I think most of our students think everybody uses the same scoring and scorecard technique we do. Not at all. Most have no idea how to keep score or how to track the game. Most mark their cards with meaningless x's and O,s and have no idea if they are up or down W/O counting their chips. Then when they see a player that actually knows what they are doing they all want to follow that player. I gives you quite a feeling doesn't it. And it makes you extra carefull too, doesn't it. It's a feeling like no other.

Also, your remarks about our -8 stop loss are very timely. Another member, Lin, is also learning the magic of that -8 number. He's also learning the hard way. Yes, you can come back from -8 or worse and win, OCCASIONALLY, but not usually. We MUST go by what USUALLY happens. That's all we really have to go on. I know of NO other group that uses a stop loss that tight but it has proven itself to me time after time. Your remaks help me answer Zebra's all important question below and so do Lin's.

And betting! We quickly see with NOR that our overall hit rate is so high that we just don't need an aggressive betting strategy like U1D2 M2 even though that prog has won me a LOT of money in the past. We are better off with 111 - 123 - 234 - 345.

As I've mentioned before, I also like the idea of experimenting with the size of your second bet according to your hit rate on that bet. Sometimes a 012 or a 132 or a 112 is best according to your historical hit rate in that shoe on each bet. We can often turn a loser into a winner by simply paying attention to which bet we are winning the most as well as which bet we are losing the most. The game rewards a thinker.

An excellent trip report. You've definitely broke the ice. Keep up the good work!

[zebra]

Hi Ellis

I'm sure this has been asked and answered before, but I don't know where.

When playing a 345 loop what do you use for the quitting point? -8 is too

low because you can get there in a few losing bets. It is also easy to make

up the loss and still get into a good shoe. I'm thinking in the neighborhood

of -16 to -20. I like the 345 because I can play $10 units on a $25 min table,

which is often all you can find

[Guest]

Hi Ellis

I'm sure this has been asked and answered before, but I don't know where.

When playing a 345 loop what do you use for the quitting point? -8 is too

low because you can get there in a few losing bets. It is also easy to make

up the loss and still get into a good shoe. I'm thinking in the neighborhood

of -16 to -20. I like the 345 because I can play $10 units on a $25 min table,

which is often all you can find.

Zebra, I've been pondering your question for several days now. It is not as cut and dry as one might think. Right, the 345 is excellent for playing dimes legally on a quarter table. It can also be highly effective playing nickels on $15 tables which are quite common in the NE US.

I think the CORRECT stop loss on a 345 must be largely dependent on how and why you got to the 345 in the first place.

In a 123 or a 1234, our stop loss of -8 is 8 times our base bet of 1. Note that if you start out losing the 123 our -8 stop loss prevents you from making a 4 bet. As well it should. If you have lost every bet in a shoe thus far, SOMETHING IS WRONG and you have NO business making a 4 bet. Here the stop loss makes you stop and ponder the situation as well you should.

Usually we are betting a 345 because we worked our way up through the 123 and 234 so we have a cushion of chips that support a -8 stop loss. That, I think, is all well and good.

But, when you are betting the 345 to take advantage of the table min or because that color prior shoe was good, that is a different situation.

I could simply say that a -8 still allows you to lose a 3,4,1, which is probably what I should say. But even if I say that, I know that just about everyone, including you and me, is going to make that 5 bet anyway. Why have a rule that no one is going to follow???

But here is another way to look at it: -8 is 8 times our base bet when our base bet is 1. We can't do it that way because -24 is simply too high by any standard.

OK but -8 is also 2 more than our 123 added together. Likewise -14 is 2 more than our 345 prog added together. -14 sounds much more reasonable to me. So I'm thinking that if you have good reason to start out with 345 that you should STILL flat bet at 3 until you have confirmed your system and mode (if you bet at all) and -14 gives you ample maneuverability.

But I think it is important to mention here that starting with a 345 lends even MORE reason to not bet at all until you have adequately determined your system and mode. Agree?

[daytrader77459]

Gd mng, Ellis,

Quick question off the NOR Approach example under "System Selection". There you posted an example of the P11115 example showing the overlap possibilities of using either the S40 or the F systems and betting. Can you check and see if my observations may be incorrect or lacking in key points if I played the P11115 in "real time" mode?

First 3 plays - P111. I already begin to see 1s above normal (1 of 4 plays normal). Begin using S40.

P11111 - Win 2 bets.

P11112 - Lose 1st bet on a "2".

P11113 - Lose 2nd consecutive bet on a "3" in a row. Now at this point, S40 with 2 consecutive losses will either change or continue. I am trying to avoid change as much as possible. However, O/R is at + having max at +4

Key question for system selection here:

1. O/R drift to + suggests keeping on S40.

2. However, in 7 plays - there has been no 2 in a row - this is strongly suggestive of either an F system (or a TBL).

I recognize both S40 and F can beat and win over a P11115 series. But on a "real time basis", is item (2) and the lack of 2 in a row a higher priority over the O/R count? I recognize P11115 is a TBL series as well. But for purist sake, which is higher priority? The LC of the SAP count, or the actual O/R count?

I appreciate all of your time and efforts to help make us understand these nuances of the game!!! Thank you!

[res]

Ellis,

This is one of the areas where I am having problems. If I am playing S40, and doing reasonably ok. When I hit a streak of 4, or more, can you give some groundrules to swithing to F. Right now I am not swithing on the first 4+. Also if I don't have any history of 4+'s I don't make the OTR bet.

Thanks,

res

[d0ma1n]

Gd mng, Ellis,

Quick question off the NOR Approach example under "System Selection". There you posted an example of the P11115 example showing the overlap possibilities of using either the S40 or the F systems and betting. Can you check and see if my observations may be incorrect or lacking in key points if I played the P11115 in "real time" mode?

First 3 plays - P111. I already begin to see 1s above normal (1 of 4 plays normal). Begin using S40.

P11111 - Win 2 bets.

P11112 - Lose 1st bet on a "2".

P11113 - Lose 2nd consecutive bet on a "3" in a row. Now at this point, S40 with 2 consecutive losses will either change or continue. I am trying to avoid change as much as possible. However, O/R is at + having max at +4

Key question for system selection here:

1. O/R drift to + suggests keeping on S40.

2. However, in 7 plays - there has been no 2 in a row - this is strongly suggestive of either an F system (or a TBL).

I recognize both S40 and F can beat and win over a P11115 series. But on a "real time basis", is item (2) and the lack of 2 in a row a higher priority over the O/R count? I recognize P11115 is a TBL series as well. But for purist sake, which is higher priority? The LC of the SAP count, or the actual O/R count?

I appreciate all of your time and efforts to help make us understand these nuances of the game!!! Thank you!

Hi Daytrader,

Maybe I would like to share my experience since I have been into such situation many times.

For a new shoe, normally I will start with flat betting when I don't see a clear trend (LC/MC Events).

In your example, P11115, I would start bet at play 3. When come to losing two S40 bet in a roll, and there is no clear signal the streak will either stay 3s or go to 4s/+, I will not bet and WAIT. If the play continue to go to 4s (like in this example), then I will bet (1) bet OTR, win or lose, with get back to S40 with (1) bet as well. And if the streak 4s+ continue, then I will bet every other bet on OTR as it doesn't hurt since I am still in flat betting mode.

When the trend or biases are clearer, then I will deploy the prog 123 or 234 (depend on my chips).

Hope this helps.

KS

[daytrader77459]

Hello, KS,

Thank you for your input! I certainly agree that your flat bet and "holding and waiting" approach is a very strong approach to NOR. Certainly the NOR instructions suggest the exact play you prescribed! :>)

I prefer in actual cash games to wait for the shoe to "declare itself" with regards to the optimum "bias" that is either the S40 vs F vs OBL methods. In general I often wait until I have at least 15-20 hands played out. Many shoes I find that 15-20 hands have helped to define which bias is best.

I don't often play at hand 3 like in the P11115 example. I am just curious to see if after the 1st two losing bets of P11113 - whether the lack of 2s and the clear TBL would suggest F (or TBL) > S40. I guess one can track the actual P/L (using 123 as base betting) and record the actual P/L of S40 vs F vs OBL at all plays and then just bet out to the system that is showing the better P/L. Just an idea.

I would imagine that more experienced players (certainly for Ellis and Keith) that the immediacy of the lack of 2s would "automagically" alter their play to switch to the F or TBL bias.

Thanks again, KS, for your comments and sharing your observations/experience!

Regards,

Daytrader77459

[donw]

Hey guys Ok I thought I got nor backwards and forwards well guess what I don't had a losing day I would like to get your thoughts

1st shoe p1111221125321 started like a s-40 shoe the highest O/R count was +7 at play 12 up up 3 units at that point just flat betting 1 unit just to see how the shoe goes then the 5 in A row came in screwed me up at - 6 units i walked I watched for a while at the last play I just posted the O/R count was +3

your thoughts on how you would have played this show would be appreciated SAP count was 7,6,4,8 I counted the 5 in A row as A 4+ I think tht you can use 5 or more in the sap count that is what makes sense anyway let me know what you guys think

[daytrader77459]

Hi, Ellis,

In Chap 11 of the NOR Approach, there was the example of the F2 vs OBL in the run: P BBBB PPP B PP

Both methods won - but the OR count and the P/L suggested that OBL > F2 to use.

My "real time" observation is that for a particular system to be truly biased, it would not have switched so quickly. In the P BBBB PPP B PP example, the F2 switched almost immediately from a Banker based F2 right into a Player based F2. I realize that it is possible to have such a quick switch in F2 - but most strongly biased F2 shoes I have played remained strongly Banker biased for many hands (assume that Banker F2 was signaled initially).

The example in Chap 11 showed a Banker F2 switching almost immediately into a Player F2. Plus Banker never went to 5+. This would alert me to the possibility of going to OBL and hoping that OBL will last many more hands. Possible error here - but my personal bias - is that a 4 in a row is not strongly indicative for F series. I use F trigger at 5+.

Please share your observations here - it is the subtle shifts in thinking and adjusting on a play by play basis that makes this game challenging. And, NOR has been a strong guide/map. But I want to continue to focus and pick your brain on the actual decision-making bias/heuristics. It is very difficult to translate your years of experience into black/white written instructions! I can appreciate your challenges to teach us all. Thank you for your efforts!

Regards,

Daytrader77459

[Guest]

A good observation Daytrader. The reason I rewrote the OR count portion of the NOR manual is that Keith had called me and suggested that my first try was far more complex than it needed to be for such a simple concept. I reread it and found he was absolutely right. I had tried to bring the play No. into it needlessly. The fact is we can be starting a shoe anywhere, preferably mid shoe, so the play No. needs to be left out of the concept. You track as far as you need to to determine the best system and mode no matter what play No. you happen to be at.

The most important aspect of deciding the best system really has nothing to do with the play No. The most important aspect is to look as the OR count as merely a guide and not as the booming voice of God. Yes, the OR count is always close but not always dead accurate. Sometimes the OR count is telling you 2 different systems, as it was in this case so we need the overlay to decide the issue.

You know, I also feel that I shouldn't always use such clear cut examples. When we actually play the shoe is not always as cooperative as my examples. So I tried to make this example more real world by making it a little ambiguous and not so clear cut. I tried to make you think a little more.

Correct, we like to see a strong side when we decide on F. Doesn't matter if it's Bank or Player but we know F performs best when we have a strong side. And also correct, this particular example had no strong side glaring at us. That is one strike against F already. But it wasn't clear cut OTB4L either because the OR count did get to 3 rather quickly which is somewhat unusual for a clear cut OTB4L decision.

This example MAKES you employ Overlay. Even then it STILL isn't that decisive with the two scores that close. In this example it probably wouldn't matter much which system you start with. Both are good but neither is great.

Also I'm trying to get you all to look at switching systems mid stream as a BAD thing we employ only when really necessary. Do we really want to switch based on just one unit especially when we are winning the shoe quite well anyway W/O switching?

But these are the kinds of situations we sometimes face in a real casino. Why make all the examples so clear cut when the shoe we are playing for real hard earned money isn't always so clear cut. This particular example brings in OR, Overlay and Overlap all in one example.

Yes, I want the instructions simple and straight forward as much as possible. But not so simple that they ruin your ability to think your way out of a situation. Forunately most shoes are fairly clear cut and automatic. But sometimes we have to think our way through. I was trying to show you how to think your way through by weighing several options and arriving at a good way to play. 3 plays later we might be changing our minds again. I hate it when that happens. But casinos have a nasty habit of making life tough for us.

Yes, I like your thinking below. It is very real world.

Hi, Ellis,

In Chap 11 of the NOR Approach, there was the example of the F2 vs OBL in the run: P BBBB PPP B PP

Both methods won - but the OR count and the P/L suggested that OBL > F2 to use.

My "real time" observation is that for a particular system to be truly biased, it would not have switched so quickly. In the P BBBB PPP B PP example, the F2 switched almost immediately from a Banker based F2 right into a Player based F2. I realize that it is possible to have such a quick switch in F2 - but most strongly biased F2 shoes I have played remained strongly Banker biased for many hands (assume that Banker F2 was signaled initially).

The example in Chap 11 showed a Banker F2 switching almost immediately into a Player F2. Plus Banker never went to 5+. This would alert me to the possibility of going to OBL and hoping that OBL will last many more hands. Possible error here - but my personal bias - is that a 4 in a row is not strongly indicative for F series. I use F trigger at 5+.

Please share your observations here - it is the subtle shifts in thinking and adjusting on a play by play basis that makes this game challenging. And, NOR has been a strong guide/map. But I want to continue to focus and pick your brain on the actual decision-making bias/heuristics. It is very difficult to translate your years of experience into black/white written instructions! I can appreciate your challenges to teach us all. Thank you for your efforts!

Regards,

Daytrader77459

Edited July 12, 2011 by Guest

[Guest]

Hey guys Ok I thought I got nor backwards and forwards well guess what I don't had a losing day I would like to get your thoughts

1st shoe p1111221125321 started like a s-40 shoe the highest O/R count was +7 at play 12 up up 3 units at that point just flat betting 1 unit just to see how the shoe goes then the 5 in A row came in screwed me up at - 6 units i walked I watched for a while at the last play I just posted the O/R count was +3

your thoughts on how you would have played this show would be appreciated SAP count was 7,6,4,8 I counted the 5 in A row as A 4+ I think tht you can use 5 or more in the sap count that is what makes sense anyway let me know what you guys think

Well, you made the same mistake I made 3 trips ago when I had the flu. You waited too long to make your move. But even so, there is no way you should have lost this shoe no matter what you did IF you played 40 correctly.

First, you are correct. This is an extremely choppy shoe. But your highest OR count is +6, not +7. And you end up at +2. Remember, you can't count the first play so the OR count starts at play No. 2 at +1.

Nevertheless this shoe starts out so choppy I'll bet the prior shoes were also choppy at this table. Therefore you likely started right out with S40 -3. Remember that we start in Mode 3 until there is a 4. There is never a 4 in this shoe so we never get out of mode 3.

So, OK I started at play 2 and just flat bet at 1 until play 6 where you lose your 1 bet. Your score went from +4 to +3 so you have plenty of money to make your 2 bet at play 7 and that is what you would do given the OR count is very agreeable at +3 at that point. So you cruise along with your 1,2 prog and find yourself at +9 score at the top circle of the 5. But then you lose your 123 against the 5 making your score +3 at play 16. Now you make your OTR bet. I would have bet 4 since I'm betting with mostly their money. But even if you bet onlt 1 unit OTR you're fine. In Mode 3 you only stay OTR for 1 bet so at play 18 you are betting either 2 or 1 on Opposite.

If you bet a 4,2 on and off the run at plays 17 and 18 you finish at +10. If you bet 4,1 like I did you finish at +9. But even if you only bet 1,1 at plays 17 and 18, you still finish at +6. Even if you played Mode 2 by mistake you still win. S40 does not lose to 5s regardless of Mode. Even if you decided to skip the OTR bet altogether you STILL win.

So how did you find a way to lose??? I'll bet you made the same mistake I made that flu trip and stayed with flat bet too long.

Here's the thing. If it's their money bet it! Don't worry about it until you are betting YOUR money.

Or maybe you waited too long to start and when the 5 came along you couldn't cover the 123 loss.

Hey, waiting too long is almost as bad as starting too early.

It's too bad because it probably would have turned out an easy +20 shoe.

BTW, even had you advanced to the 234 or even the 345 well before the 5, you still win at +6.

Boy, isn't Monday morning quarterbacking easy!

[donw]

Well, you made the same mistake I made 3 trips ago when I had the flu. You waited too long to make your move. But even so, there is no way you should have lost this shoe no matter what you did IF you played 40 correctly.

First, you are correct. This is an extremely choppy shoe. But your highest OR count is +6, not +7. And you end up at +2. Remember, you can't count the first play so the OR count starts at play No. 2 at +1.

Nevertheless this shoe starts out so choppy I'll bet the prior shoes were also choppy at this table. Therefore you likely started right out with S40 -3. Remember that we start in Mode 3 until there is a 4. There is never a 4 in this shoe so we never get out of mode 3.

So, OK I started at play 2 and just flat bet at 1 until play 6 where you lose your 1 bet. Your score went from +4 to +3 so you have plenty of money to make your 2 bet at play 7 and that is what you would do given the OR count is very agreeable at +3 at that point. So you cruise along with your 1,2 prog and find yourself at +9 score at the top circle of the 5. But then you lose your 123 against the 5 making your score +3 at play 16. Now you make your OTR bet. I would have bet 4 since I'm betting with mostly their money. But even if you bet onlt 1 unit OTR you're fine. In Mode 3 you only stay OTR for 1 bet so at play 18 you are betting either 2 or 1 on Opposite.

If you bet a 4,2 on and off the run at plays 17 and 18 you finish at +10. If you bet 4,1 like I did you finish at +9. But even if you only bet 1,1 at plays 17 and 18, you still finish at +6. Even if you played Mode 2 by mistake you still win. S40 does not lose to 5s regardless of Mode. Even if you decided to skip the OTR bet altogether you STILL win.

So how did you find a way to lose??? I'll bet you made the same mistake I made that flu trip and stayed with flat bet too long.

Here's the thing. If it's their money bet it! Don't worry about it until you are betting YOUR money.

Or maybe you waited too long to start and when the 5 came along you couldn't cover the 123 loss.

Hey, waiting too long is almost as bad as starting too early.

It's too bad because it probably would have turned out an easy +20 shoe.

BTW, even had you advanced to the 234 or even the 345 well before the 5, you still win at +6.

Boy, isn't Monday morning quarterbacking easy!

Hello Good to hear from you I did not start the shoe until play 6 and I just flat bet 1 unit until I have 3 to 4 units up then I go for 1,2,3,4 M2 Mode

yup I see my mistake.

when you say cash management do not go below -8 units I am guessing if you are up lets say 7units you don go below -1 unit is that correct ?

anyway I'm going to keep playing tonight I hate where I play at the commerce casino here in Los Angeles Ca you have to put up 1 Dollar every time you make a bet its dragon 7 baccarat that 1 dollar kills me 20 plays means your $20.00 dollars down already it sucks anyway thanks for your help Ellis

Edited July 13, 2011 by donw

[Guest]

Hello Good to hear from you I did not start the shoe until play 6 and I just flat bet 1 unit until I have 3 to 4 units up then I go for 1,2,3,4 M2 Mode

yup I see my mistake.

when you say cash management do not go below -8 units I am guessing if you are up lets say 7units you don go below -1 unit is that correct ?

Hi Don, no that is not what I meant. Capturing and stop loss are not quite the same thing.

Capturing you might well say if I get to +10, I won't make a bet that could take me below +1. You have 1 unit captured and therefore once at +10 you can't lose.

A -8 stop loss means that, no matter what, you won't make a bet that could take you below an actual -8. This gives you room to maneuver at the beginning of a shoe. So from +7 you could have gone all the way to -8. But recognize that if you are at -6 and the system is calling for a 3 bet, you quit.

In your case here, even starting at play 6, you already know what system to play so your bet at play 7 should have been 2 units. That way you'll see you had enough money to get by the 5 in a row.

anyway I'm going to keep playing tonight I hate where I play at the commerce casino here in Los Angeles Ca you have to put up 1 Dollar every time you make a bet its dragon 7 baccarat that 1 dollar kills me 20 plays means your $20.00 dollars down already it sucks anyway thanks for your help Ellis

BTW, I'm working on your membership problem and have already contacted Keith. He is purging our membership list. If any of you run into BTC access problems, Email Keith@beatthecasino.com

Right Don! That casino sounds like it sucks.

Edited July 13, 2011 by Guest

[Guest]

BTW everyone, regarding the ongoing conversation about where best to start a shoe:

When I post trip shoes, I did not necessarily start at the beginning of a shoe. I may very well have started mid shoe but I usually don't bother going back and filling in the circles from the beginning of the shoe. I usually don't have time. When I come across a highly biased tote board mid shoe, I want to get my bet down right away. So I start my card as if it were the beginning of a shoe when it actually wasn't. You can usually tell by whether I started flat betting or I went right into a 1,2 prog.

When I start my card mid shoe I should remember to skip a few lines at the beginning so you know I started mid shoe. Then, as time permits, I could go back and fill in those blank circles later.

But when I start a shoe mid shoe it is almost always because I'm staring at a highly biased tote board. My mind is on the game, not on how that card will look later when I post it.

But I'll try to remember to signal you from now on. Perhaps by entering the starting play number on the card. Most tote boards today tell you what play No. the game is at.

Believe it or not, in the heat of the game, I'm thinking about the game, not you guys.

[MVSeahog]

Believe it or not, in the heat of the game, I'm thinking about the game, not you guys.

As well it should be, Chief!

MVS

[Fedda]

When you are betting the 1234 prog and your score is in the +5 to +7 range it is time to advance your prog up to the 234 or 345. The best time to advance to the 234 is after a winning 2 bet. The best time to advance to the 345 is after a winning 3 bet.

Hi! I have a question about the bold part there..

Do you mean that we advance to the 234-prog after two winning bets or after the second winning bet in the 1234 prog?