NOR Manual Questions

[Guest]

Ellis,

When playing S40 with Mode 2, when we lose the 1,2 unit bets, and we also lose our first 1 unit OTR bet, (for a total of -4 units).

What is our next correct unit size bet? Would you bet 3 units based on the 123 4 progression or would you bet 1 unit? If the correct bet is for 3 units, and you did lose this bet, would you exit the shoe with an overall loss of -7 units? Thank you for your assistance.

First, never make a 2 bet until you have won a 1 bet in that game. I would likely change tables if things were starting out that bad. I'm not superstitious but that is a very bad sign of things to come.

[bacattack]

Ellis,

I am not referring to playing S40 with M2 at the beginning of a new shoe......

I do understand that you never make a 2 bet until you have won a 1 bet in that game.

After reviewing your Las Vegas ( Luxor shoe S40- Mode 2), the shoe which was on you tube (15mins) Part II, starting at plays # 6-10, you won a 2 unit Banker bet on play#6.

Plays 7 & 8, you lost a 1 unit, and 2 unit Player bet. Plays #9 & 10, you won your 1 unit OTR bets (twice).

What if you were to have lost your first 1 unit OTR bet on play #9, would your next bet be for 3 units based on the 123 4 progression?

Thanks again...

[Guest]

Ellis,

I am not referring to playing S40 with M2 at the beginning of a new shoe......

I do understand that you never make a 2 bet until you have won a 1 bet in that game.

After reviewing your Las Vegas ( Luxor shoe S40- Mode 2), the shoe which was on you tube (15mins) Part II, starting at plays # 6-10, you won a 2 unit Banker bet on play#6.

Plays 7 & 8, you lost a 1 unit, and 2 unit Player bet. Plays #9 & 10, you won your 1 unit OTR bets (twice).

What if you were to have lost your first 1 unit OTR bet on play #9, would your next bet be for 3 units based on the 123 4 progression?

Thanks again...

OK, again, Whenever you bet OTR, win or lose, your next bet is always 1 unit.

[bacattack]

Ellis,

Throughout the years of your professional play, which event patterns do you find to excel with each of the three NOR systems. As the following patterns occur in the beginning of a new shoe, if a 2/1 develops, which system would you mostly attempt to use? Also for the 2/2 pattern, and the 3/1 pattern? Thanks.. Look forward to Atlantic City in 2012

[Guest]

Ellis,

Throughout the years of your professional play, which event patterns do you find to excel with each of the three NOR systems. As the following patterns occur in the beginning of a new shoe, if a 2/1 develops, which system would you mostly attempt to use? Also for the 2/2 pattern, and the 3/1 pattern? Thanks.. Look forward to Atlantic City in 2012

Very good question! At the PA seminar we went over all of the possible 4 play shoe starts. Each possible start already puts a specific system in mind. That was a very worthwhile exercise.

In the long run (over many shoes) all events of the same length occur at equal frequencies. But on a shoe by shoe basis they don't even come close.

On both a confirmed 2/1 and a confirmed 2,2 I'm going to already be thinking OTB4L because OTB4L beats both single 1's and 2s. But on a 3,1 or a 1,3 I'll be thinking F for the same reason. A confirmed 1/1 is S40 and a 3 or 4 in a row is F. Incredibly, this seems to hold up about 90% of the time especially with new cards.

By "confirmed" I mean the next play is already complete so the pattern of 3 is confirmed. (We know that a 2,1 is going to stay 2,1 and not go to 2,2 because the next play has confirmed the 2/1.

Even simpler. In the first 4 plays, a 2 in a row signals OTB4L. 3s and/or 4s signal F

Double 1's signal S40.

New players should wait a little longer.

And everyone should wait a little longer with factory preshuffled cards.

You should always know what kind of cards you are playing and how old they are.

In the Vegas demonstration I let the early 7 throw me off OTB4L. If I had simply stuck with OTB4L I would have made + 10 rather easy. But I just had to figure out a way to turn a +10 into a +5. Not a great trick!

Edited December 29, 2011 by Guest

[kingfisher]

Please explain. If I start in Mode 3, after my 3rd losing bet in a row I make my next bet OTR for whatever unit I choose (possibly a 4). If it wins I remain in Mode 3 for my next 3 loss bets in a row. I repeat my previous action (one bet OTR). If I lose this 4th bet in a row, do I continue my system (S40, F, or OTB4L) that I am using? Now I go to Mode 2. Upon losing 2 bets in a row I now make 2 OTR bets. Do I remain in Mode 2 if I win both OTR bets? If I split the bets or lose both OTR bets do I next go back to Mode 3? Thanks in advance

[Guest]

Please explain. If I start in Mode 3, after my 3rd losing bet in a row I make my next bet OTR for whatever unit I choose (possibly a 4). If it wins I remain in Mode 3 for my next 3 loss bets in a row. I repeat my previous action (one bet OTR). If I lose this 4th bet in a row, do I continue my system (S40, F, or OTB4L) that I am using? Now I go to Mode 2. Upon losing 2 bets in a row I now make 2 OTR bets. Do I remain in Mode 2 if I win both OTR bets? If I split the bets or lose both OTR bets do I next go back to Mode 3? Thanks in advance

Well, you've almost got it perfect but you're making it more complex than it needs to be.

First let's answer your questions:

Q. If I lose this 4th bet in a row, do I continue my system (S40, F, or OTB4L) that I am using? Now I go to Mode 2?

A. Correct. And if you win your OTR bet you stay in Mode 3.

Q. Upon losing 2 bets in a row I now make 2 OTR bets?

A. Correct, assuming you won your first OTR bet. If not, you go right back to the system's normal betting routine with a 1 bet.

Q. Do I remain in Mode 2 if I win both OTR bets?

A. You only need to win the first OTR bet to remain in Mode 2. Or both. Either way you are still in Mode 2.

If you lose the 1st OTR bet, that's it. You return to normal betting with a 1 bet. and now you are in Mode 3.

Note that If you lose an initial OTR bet, the run is over so you can't attempt a second OTR bet.

Now, if you study the wording a little bit you'll soon see that: Regardless of the Mode you are in, if you win the 3rd bet of your prog you are in the right Mode so you stay in that same mode next time. Likewise, If you lose your 3rd bet you change Modes for next time.

It's just a simpler way of looking at it that amounts to exactly the same thing. Just study it a little, you'll get it.

Edited December 29, 2011 by Guest

[BigVic]

Ellis if we choose to never make a OTR bet is that OK too? Can we still be profitable if we are that conservative?

[res]

Hi Ellis.

I have a couple of questions about the “Progression Within a Progression”

From the manual

“You may choose to never make 4 bets. Our win goals can accommodate that choice. The way you do that is the first time an OTR bet comes up you bet only 1 unit. But if that bet loses, the next time an OTR bet comes up, you bet 2 units and if that loses next time 3 units. That is actually the way S40 was played when it won 40 straight shoes in a row played at 5 different casinos. We call that a progression within a progression.”

First, does the OTR progression top out at 3, or continue to 4, 5 etc?

Second, after you win an OTR bet what is the next bet? Do you start the progression over? Bet what the regular OTR bet would be (3 or 4 )?

I made have missed the answer to the second part, but I have been looking for it for a while and haven’t found it.

Thanks,

res

[Guest]

Ellis if we choose to never make a OTR bet is that OK too? Can we still be profitable if we are that conservative?

Good question and yes, absolutely. Sometimes it even works out better because remember we are not really trying to make money on runs, we are merely trying to cancel them out. The way you would do this is still go with your Modes by the book. But then when it is time to bet OTR just don't bet at all until the run ends. If the shoe is high enough in opposites you do good.

[Guest]

Hi Ellis.

I have a couple of questions about the “Progression Within a Progression”

From the manual

“You may choose to never make 4 bets. Our win goals can accommodate that choice. The way you do that is the first time an OTR bet comes up you bet only 1 unit. But if that bet loses, the next time an OTR bet comes up, you bet 2 units and if that loses next time 3 units. That is actually the way S40 was played when it won 40 straight shoes in a row played at 5 different casinos. We call that a progression within a progression.”

First, does the OTR progression top out at 3, or continue to 4, 5 etc?

Second, after you win an OTR bet what is the next bet? Do you start the progression over? Bet what the regular OTR bet would be (3 or 4 )?

I made have missed the answer to the second part, but I have been looking for it for a while and haven’t found it.

Thanks,

res

Hi Ron and another excellent question. With NOR, I would top it out at 5 but 3 is usually enough. Then if I got up over 3 I would go 2 down and stay on the run until a 1 bet was due and then go against the run. The reason is because by then, a longer run is sorely due.

I remember once when I was playing only S40 W/O the benefit of NOR, my OTR bet went clear up to 8. I stuck it out and won an 8642 and quit with a winning shoe. But it was damn scary!

[ztomsk]

Ellis,

I know you’re probably sick of explaining Modes, but I just wanted to clarify that I understand it correctly. I always try to think of NOR in the simplest way as much as I can. When you explained OTB4L by saying it is “betting a repeat after an opposite and opposite after repeat†- that helped me understand more than reading pages and pages on the forum.

So for the Modes - basically we are simply repeating the previously run, whatever that might be? For instance, say we are playing S40 and the last run is 3. The next time we see a 3 in a row, we bet ATR so that it will stay at 3. If it goes 4+, then the next time we see a 3 in a row, we bet OTR (repeating the run of 4+). Correct? And whatever happens in between the runs, just play as normal betting opposites on ones and twos?

Say the last run ended at 4… then we would not bet a second OTR bet because it would have lost previously, right?

Thanks

[Guest]

Ellis,

I know you’re probably sick of explaining Modes, but I just wanted to clarify that I understand it correctly. I always try to think of NOR in the simplest way as much as I can. When you explained OTB4L by saying it is “betting a repeat after an opposite and opposite after repeat” - that helped me understand more than reading pages and pages on the forum.

So for the Modes - basically we are simply repeating the previously run, whatever that might be? For instance, say we are playing S40 and the last run is 3. The next time we see a 3 in a row, we bet ATR so that it will stay at 3. If it goes 4+, then the next time we see a 3 in a row, we bet OTR (repeating the run of 4+). Correct? And whatever happens in between the runs, just play as normal betting opposites on ones and twos?

Say the last run ended at 4… then we would not bet a second OTR bet because it would have lost previously, right?

Thanks

Yes, and that is a good and simple way to look at it. The same is also true for OTB4L except now you are looking at 4s vs 5+s and you are also looking at both straight AND ZZ runs.

Whatever worked or would have worked last time.

This perspective also points out what can go wrong more clearly.

With S40 it is intermittent 3s and 4s

With OTB4L it is intermittent 4s and 5s

With F it is intermittent 2s and 3s on the weak side.

When that happens it is best to stay in Mode 2, bet 1 unit OTR but if it loses, next time bet 2 then 3 and so forth. That solves the problem nicely.

That is how S40 won 40 shoes in a row and some may prefer to always play both systems that simple way. If you do that and get up to a 4 or more bet just go down 2 instead of back to 1 every time. Sometimes you win shoes that way that regular S40 or OTB4L would have lost.

Don't worry about reading comprehension. It is the computer age that causes that and many of us are afflicted with less reading comprehension. It is simply because we tend to read books less and work with computers more.

And, of course, at least on this forum, we have the language barrier more because we are so interracial but that is a good thing, don't you think?

You know when I first met Dave, who is Virtuoid on ImSpirit, at the PA seminar, I was very pleased to see that he is obviously Asian. I realized that this is going to help us conquer whatever is left of our interracial divide. I don't think there is much left around here, if any at all. And that is good!

Edited January 5, 2012 by Guest

[Frank77]

Hi Ellis,

Happy New Year to you, Keith and all your students.

When going OTR on your first bet you do so with a 1 unit bet. If it loses your next OTR bet is 2 units etc. If your 1st OTR bet wins, the next time we go OTR do bet our normal sequence of bets which could be 3 units?

Frank77

[Guest]

Hi Ellis,

Happy New Year to you, Keith and all your students.

When going OTR on your first bet you do so with a 1 unit bet. If it loses your next OTR bet is 2 units etc. If your 1st OTR bet wins, the next time we go OTR do bet our normal sequence of bets which could be 3 units?

Frank77

Well Frank, you are mixing two different ways of doing Modes:

The normal Nor way: Your first OTR bet is 1 unit unless Mode has already been established (You entered mid shoe). That 1 bet, win or lose, establishes the correct Mode so your next OTR bet will be the normal 3, or 4 in the case of Mode 3. Just remember that with OTB4L you need to go through this process for BOTH straight and ZZ runs.

Now, what can go wrong is that the Mode keeps changing every time you attempt an OTR bet. That is when you go to the basic method, stay in Mode 2 and bet a 12345 up as you lose on all your OTR bets. So if you lost at 1, instead of changing to Mode 3, you would stay in Mode 2 next time and bet 2 OTR and if that loses, next time 3 and so forth. Essentially you are betting that the shoe won't produce 5 3's before it produces a 4+ which is a pretty safe bet. And IF we get up to the 4 or 5, we go down 2 on an OTR win with our followup OTR bet.

That basic method is the way S40 won 40 shoes in a row.

Now you might find yourself at a good choppy table except your OTR bets are never in the right Mode. The basic method is how you fix that. It works in virtually all choppy shoes. Some very conservative players may choose to always play S40 the basic way. The only penalty is that it usually takes a little longer to get to your goal of +10.

BTW when S40 won 40 shoes in a row we were playing it mostly to +8. But, we were playing it in all shoe types, not just chop. Also, the 40 shoes were played in 5 different casinos at all times of day. So it wasn't because we picked choppy tables to begin with. Hey, 40 is a hell of a lot of shoes to win in a row. One of those shoes produced 7 3s before it finally produced a 7 in a row so I won the 8642, then switched sides and won the 1 bet, and won the shoe by 3 units. But back then, we were using a -20 stop loss. Now, we know better.

BTW, it was during that 40 shoe win that Ann and I ended up playing with that weird couple at the Stardust Vegas high stakes room. He was showing off to his girlfriend and betting an up as you win Fibonaci on Repeats AT A SEVERELY CHOPPY TABLE!. He loudly criticized our every bet. We won 8 straight shoes at +10 each for a combined win of $16,000. He was on his second $40,000 buy in when he asked me what I do for a living. Ann replied, "We play Baccarat." That ended all further conversation. I think those two split up later that night.

Edited January 7, 2012 by Guest