How will you play these shoes

[Guest]

Hiii jerry,

I played ur shoe

I got +3units. I started play at hand 10, stopped at hand 24. Max drawdown only -1 unit.

Well thanks Core but here's the thing: When you take a losing shoe and play it ANY other way you nearly always win.

Like Keith said, both of us would have known to simply bet a 123 prog on repeats in this shoe. If you play it that way from play 3 it goes clear up to +30 with a high bet of only 3 and a worst position of +1. If you advance to the 345 prog as both Keith and I would have done it goes clear up to +58 and ends at +55.

When a shoe is THAT biased, you drop everything and simply play the bias. In a real casino I'm sure the prior shoes would also be streaky. Shoes THAT streaky don't come out of thin air. The OR count went to -14 for crying out loud. So simply betting Repeats you win 14 more bets than you lose.

Now at Genting I don't know if I could have used the prior shoe information or not because I STILL don't know if they use new cards every shoe.

Edited January 24, 2012 by Guest

[Guest]

Hi Ellis,

Regarding the first shoe NOR4.

Your suggestion is extremely important to me and other members. Can you tell me which play number I should start with OTB4L? and which play number I should switch to F?

Thank you again for the support.

Take care,

Ferdi

-n

Well first, here is the shoe again you are referring to

NOR4_S40_OTB4L.pdf

B121113112214

Now, recognize that you have taken this shoe out of context so I have no prior shoes to go on. I would not normally put myself in this position.

But knowing only what I know, I would very likely start at play 4 with a 1 bet on B starting with OTB4L M2 because only a confirmed 4 in a row could hurt me which is highly unlikely because we see a confirmed 4 only once every 32 plays.

However OTB4L struggles almost from the start so I'm looking to change.

At play 9 I see that there are twice as may Ps as Bs and B has produced nothing but 1's so far. That is as perfect an F situation as it gets. So I'm going to start F3 at play 10 with a 1 bet on P. F3 because there is already a confirmed 2 and F3 is stronger in chop than F2. So I'm really betting that Bank can't produce a 3 given how weak it has been thus far. I'm still a little nervous because the shoe is so choppy thus far but the 4 is going to give me a little more confidence. I'm definitely hoping the 4 goes to 5 and OR count continues going down. But this is a shoe where at this point I'm keeping one foot on the floor ready to run.

Edited January 24, 2012 by Guest