Update on AC Seminar

[Guest]

Guys, I'm thinking that I'm totally confusing you talking about two totally different Net Bet systems at the same time.

The first one we discussed was a filler for XDX to be deployed when your SAP counts are tied leaving you with no advantage bets.

That is NOT a losing shoe as PJ declared! Not even close.

It is a gift shoe from the casino that you can almost always beat substantially. It will often be your best shoe of the day.

Look, when your 4 SAP counts are tied or running neck and neck, SAP is NOT telling you this shoe is no good. Just the opposite. SAP is telling you this is a great shoe, just net bet Opposites vs Repeats.

Why? Because it is mathematically impossible to have a tied SAP count W/O also having a tied or Zero OR count.

Likewise, a neck and neck SAP count ALWAYS produces a neck and neck OR count. And such a count is ideal for O vs R net betting. And this form of net betting is so simple I could list all the rules in a single sentence.

So no, I can't have PJ insisting that you take the loss and throw out the best shoes you are going to see all day. Beating them is as close to a sure thing as anything you will ever see in a casino. The idea of throwing them out is preposterous. This is not about personalities at all. It is about pure math.

NOR already has a solution for such shoes - OTB4L

XDX, as presented, had no solution other than try to keep your loss small.

I've got a better solution: Try to keep your win BIG!

I've played tables where the OR count stayed between -4 and +4 all day long every shoe. You can easily average +15 every shoe at such a table. And you'll probably want to consider raising your unit.

The rules are as simple as rules get:

Start anywhere but you'll find is best to start right in the middle of a ZZ or straight run.

BET a 1230 up as you lose red prog on Opposites and the same in blue on Repeats. Whenever a prog hits it goes back to 1. When a whole prog loses it stays at 0 until it hits and then starts over at 1 while the other prog keeps on trucking at 1 unit. At each play subtract the low entry from the high entry and table bet only the difference on the side of the higher entry. Your highest possible bet is 2. That's it.

Now, if you want to get a little cuter than that you can note if a 4 entry on either or both progs would have usually won. If so, fine, make the appropriate 4 entries. Now you are playing it 3 Hi. End of story.

You don't need a manual or even a thread. The whole thing is as simple as pie.

Recognize that a tied SAP count Always means a 0 OR count. These are your best Net Bet games. But you can also have a 0 or hovering 0 OR count W/O a tied SAP count. These are your second best games.

Now, when we are discussing a random cards net bet scheme that is a whole different kettle of fish. There we would be also introducing P vs B net betting and also low side net betting.

The problem with SAP in random cards is that you usually don't generate much disparity and SAP funtions on increasing disparity. Net betting functions on the exact opposite - decreasing disparity. But net betting can be designed to also function on increasing disparity. I'm trying to figure out just what kind of cards you guys are seeing in Singapore. For instance, if you were to tell me that your SAP counts are usually running closer than the shoes you see posted here, that would be a big help in designing a net bet system to your application.

On the other hand, if you are seeing high SAP disparity, that would tell me your cards aren't really all that random. In that case SAP should work just fine. Just add the above Net Bet scheme to your quiver and deploy it when SAP is generating little disparity.

[witchygal]

Hmmm, all I was trying to point out is that I didn't abandon the net bet thread. I was 1200 miles away and preoccupied.

Standard NOR already uses SAP to determine when to go OTR. The 3rd bet rule is SAP.

For instance, say you are playing OTB4L. What you are interested in is which you are seeing more of 4s or 5 or mores so that you know when best to go OTR, if at all. There is only an average of 2 4s and 2 5 or mores in an entire shoe. And the first one doesn't count because you are not betting on it. If the shoe is streakier than that, you would not be playing OTB4L. You would be playing F.

So usually you are making your decision based on the last 4 or more event. The 3rd bet rule gives you the correct SAP play based on the last 4 or more which is usually the only 4 or more. The 3rd bet rule gives you the latest SAP information.

So if you are saying that Modes are not reliable, you are, in fact, saying that SAP is not reliable with preshuffled cards. That is what I'm going by.

If that is the situation you have two choices:

Stay in mode 2 and bet a 0123 prog on your OTR bets that is independent of your regular 123 prog. Note that I didn't put a 4 on the end of either prog because Mode 2 has no 4 bet.

The other choice is to net bet in the way I'm proposing. In that case you don't care whether a run goes 4 or 5 because in both cases you are already on the run. The whole OTR decision is eliminated.

It is just semantics but your last statement is backwards. SAP is 100% mechanical. Every bet is based on either MC or LC. It is NOR that is not fully mechanical because you have to decide on which system to play as well as if and when to go OTR. Once you are making decisions it is no longer mechanical.

Thanks Ellis. So if you are not 1200 miles away and preoccupied now, maybe you can reply to your own post and post the play by play for net betting as promised.

[Sinatra1]

I do agree. I attended the seminar last year in Pa. and I know net betting from way back when I first joined the forum. But as you stated you can net bet a lot of different things. OvR, PvB etc. I actually was in AC the Saturday of the seminar and ran into Keith at Bally's. Since I went to the seminar last year I didn't think there was a need to attend another but if you are going to promote new ideas at each one then I guess it is something to consider. Since AC table minimums are in the $20-$25 range and I can play online for as little as $5, online is more convenient. Not to mention the 1 hour drive each way for me. So any improvements for online play you have I would be interested in learning and even willing to pay a little more money for. The nice thing about Bet Phoenix is that you can constantly go online to check out the shoes and see what they are doing. For us to have someone like you to be able to go online and tell us what to play would be great. You could charge for a service like these stock pickers do. You could use tweets or text and update us on good shoes and how to play them while they are in progress. Just a thought!

[core]

Why u ask the members to pay for the new system? NOR can`t show its power in asia and now you are telling us to spend more money again???

I object this idea, Ellis. Old members are not suppose to pay again.

[Guest]

Thanks Ellis. So if you are not 1200 miles away and preoccupied now, maybe you can reply to your own post and post the play by play for net betting as promised.

Tell you what: I think the directions in my last post are pretty clear. Can you play what you consider a typical shoe and then get it posted? I'll check it and then do a play by play of your shoe. How's that? If you can't post a shoe, let me know and I'll get someone else to post for us. Just be sure to include the Play# column and use columns of 20. Use that other thread

[Guest]

Why u ask the members to pay for the new system? NOR can`t show its power in asia and now you are telling us to spend more money again???

I object this idea, Ellis. Old members are not suppose to pay again.

You aren't the only one core. But I already rescinded the whole idea yesterday.

[Guest]

I do agree. I attended the seminar last year in Pa. and I know net betting from way back when I first joined the forum. But as you stated you can net bet a lot of different things. OvR, PvB etc. I actually was in AC the Saturday of the seminar and ran into Keith at Bally's. Since I went to the seminar last year I didn't think there was a need to attend another but if you are going to promote new ideas at each one then I guess it is something to consider. Since AC table minimums are in the $20-$25 range and I can play online for as little as $5, online is more convenient. Not to mention the 1 hour drive each way for me. So any improvements for online play you have I would be interested in learning and even willing to pay a little more money for. The nice thing about Bet Phoenix is that you can constantly go online to check out the shoes and see what they are doing. For us to have someone like you to be able to go online and tell us what to play would be great. You could charge for a service like these stock pickers do. You could use tweets or text and update us on good shoes and how to play them while they are in progress. Just a thought!

Hi Sinatra1, they usually aren't new ideas, just new to the attendees. BTW, I think you are best off to stick to live on line casinos. I must have just missed you at Bally's.

Edited March 23, 2012 by Guest

[Guest]

BTW guys, When writing the NOR manual I changed the Modes from going by the total SAP count to going by the most recent SAP information. Both ways usually arrive at the same bet but not always. If you prefer the total SAP count all you need to to is go by which way the 3rd bet would have won most often. That way you are using traditional SAP. And BTW if your count is dead even I would avoid the 3rd bet altogether.

Edited March 23, 2012 by Guest

[Jim Files]

Well Ellis,

I sure hope all the folks that objected to spending a little bit more have not discouraged you from going ahead and developing the net bet system for the non-biased shoes. I think this is exactly what we need for the live online casinos and probably for the members over in Singapore facing the more random shoes. Just the little bit you talked about back in post #3 got me all excited!

Since putting a manual together is such a pain maybe it could just be discussed and developed within a new thread here on BTC or maybe even a separate thread or section of the forum that would be optional if members wanted to pay a small fee to participate... What do you think?

Jim

[bluetri]

I agree with Jim, and if that post got you excited Jim, the discussion at the AC seminar had me SOLD! It will leave the casinos with no place to hide, when combined with NOR. Their only option now is factory preshuffled cards, and net betting will put them on the run...i would hate to miss out on that opportunity...

[zebra]

The turmoil of the past few weeks here on the forum has got me thinking about a few things.

A few years ago, when I first joined BTC, the atmosphere was quite different. Ellis would throw

out a few ideas and we, the members, would work on ways to improve them. These ideas were

discussed and tested BY US. I knew very little about baccarat other than how to play. Everything

I know about systems I learned here. But even when I was a relative newbie I was involved in

improving the systems. I even had a system named for me - I think it was SKOR-Z (Z for Zebra).

My point is that it was a group effort. That is what made this forum different than all the others.

Today it seems that everyone is looking to Ellis to do everything. You all know the basic principles

of net betting - go on and try to make improvements yourselves and toss them to the group to

test and improve. You don't need Ellis to guide you step-by-step. I have met and played with

many of you in the "new generation" of BTC. You have the intelligence and motivation to do this.

We should not be bickering over whether to pay for a new manual - we should be CREATING that

manual for our mutual benefit. Okay, somebody help me off this soapbox.

Paul

[kachatz1]

You aren't the only one core. But I already rescinded the whole idea yesterday.

Ellis-

You are evermore firmly the head of the Baccarat Hall of Fame, insofar as all of us at BTC are concerned.

I think a firm commitment to the words 'lifetime member' means 'lifetime member' has been rendered, and now it is really up to you to determine the degree to which you wish to devote time and energy to a "new and improved" NET BETTING addition to NOR.

While it seems incumbent upon all serious students to "attend class" and participate in the discussion of the subject matter at hand, it is always up to the university and the teacher to craft the syllabus...( or just follow last semester's and reteach the benefit of the information to existing/new students)

Really, to take NET BETTING to it's next level has to be your decision, and no-one here can fault you for simply referring students to that which has already been published on the subject....looked at it myself today, and with referring people to the most apropos posts, I think most will get the idea of what it entails/ how to apply it/ when to utilize ( if at all...)

As always, GOOD LUCK TO ALL!

[Guest]

I agree with Jim, and if that post got you excited Jim, the discussion at the AC seminar had me SOLD! It will leave the casinos with no place to hide, when combined with NOR. Their only option now is factory preshuffled cards, and net betting will put them on the run...i would hate to miss out on that opportunity...

Whether BJ or Bac, I've always tried to stay one step ahead of the casinos. They are forever on the move. I think preshuffled cards is the coming thing. I think the few state laws protecting us will mostly fall by the wayside. They own too many politicians.

[Sir Donald]

Ellis,

I encourage you to proceed with your manual covering...... Low vs. High Side and Flat Bet Option Net Betting. I don't believe either of these two forms of net betting have been discussed previously in any great detail. Speaking for myself, I have a keen interest in any form of net betting, but particularly the two types mentioned, with their HUGE advantages outlined by you.

Along with many other BTC members, I would be willing to purchase at a reasonably "low" member price a manual specifically detailing the above mentioned forms of net betting with appropriate sample shoes illustrating various techniques.

Perhaps, you can poll more members to get a better feel for the level of interest.....but a few members do not and should not speak for the silent majority.

What say you, Ellis?

Don

[harrican]

BTW guys, When writing the NOR manual I changed the Modes from going by the total SAP count to going by the most recent SAP information. Both ways usually arrive at the same bet but not always. If you prefer the total SAP count all you need to to is go by which way the 3rd bet would have won most often. That way you are using traditional SAP. And BTW if your count is dead even I would avoid the 3rd bet altogether.

Hi, can you show us an example?

[Guest]

Hi, can you show us an example?

harrican, just do it by your manual for now. You aren't ready to be making deviations from the manual. Plus, I'm not sure such a deviation will help. The 3rd bet rule is in your NOR manual under Modes.

The 3rd bet is the bet due after two losses. It is the bet where you are deciding whether to go on or against the run. The first time it comes up you don't make any bet unless you started mid shoe. In that case you go by which way the 3rd bet would have won last time. Otherwise, don't bet but note which way it would have won, on the run or against the run. From there, every time your 3rd bet wins you stay in that same Mode for next time. But when your 3rd bet loses you switch Modes for next time. Check your sample shoes.

If you aren't getting this just stay in Mode 2 and bet a 123 up as you lose progression on your OTR bets.

[Guest]

Ellis,

I encourage you to proceed with your manual covering...... Low vs. High Side and Flat Bet Option Net Betting. I don't believe either of these two forms of net betting have been discussed previously in any great detail. Speaking for myself, I have a keen interest in any form of net betting, but particularly the two types mentioned, with their HUGE advantages outlined by you.

Along with many other BTC members, I would be willing to purchase at a reasonably "low" member price a manual specifically detailing the above mentioned forms of net betting with appropriate sample shoes illustrating various techniques.

Perhaps, you can poll more members to get a better feel for the level of interest.....but a few members do not and should not speak for the silent majority.

What say you, Ellis?

Don

Hi silent,

At this point I pretty much have the whole thing in my head. Already it beats ZZ, straight and TT runs as well as 212 runs which is quite a feat in itself. I used to think that was impossible. There are still some questions such as how best to take advantage of Strong Side shoes?

But also I have to be very careful of splitting the interests of the forum. We made that mistake last month and new members turned off like a faucet along with all BTC income. Members and prospective members like to see a unified direction.

This is going to take careful thought as how best to pursue.

[Guest]

BTW, I'm getting some rather frantic calls from Asia saying that the casino trend now is streaky shoes. Their reasoning is that Asians mostly favor streaky shoes (which is historically true) and refuse to play choppy tables.

Can any of our other Asian players confirm or deny this?

This caller said he was mostly ending up playing F these days.

[Guest]

Witchy, I didn't mean to put you on the spot. If you can't post a shoe picture just post one using our short cut method requsting that somebody else post the picture.

[witchygal]

Witchy, I didn't mean to put you on the spot. If you can't post a shoe picture just post one using our short cut method requsting that somebody else post the picture.

No worries. We are all here to learn. I have posted the shoe and welcome comments from all members.

[core]

BTW, I'm getting some rather frantic calls from Asia saying that the casino trend now is streaky shoes. Their reasoning is that Asians mostly favor streaky shoes (which is historically true) and refuse to play choppy tables.

Can any of our other Asian players confirm or deny this?

This caller said he was mostly ending up playing F these days.

I deny this. If u play f, u will die here. F2 f 3 doesnt work. When i was playing nor, i avoid playing f, i prefer s40. I know this because i play everysingle day here. This is my job. Collecting chips

[Guest]

No worries. We are all here to learn. I have posted the shoe and welcome comments from all members.

Thanks! That was very Australian of you.