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More NOR detailed training materials coming. Looking for some California Players


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Hi, Ellis,

We play primarily at the major Strip places - and these allow cards to touched, written on, wrinkled, folded, ripped, and eaten! :-)

Every new shoe comes in a wrapped 8-dk pre-shuffled package. I believe that these pre-packed shoes were originally shuffled and packaged and verified from overseas (Asia).

Many times, several tables would show different biases of OBL vs S40 vs F/SS simultaneously. On occasion, Way2Fast and I have been in high limit pit areas where ALL the tables may be showing strong biased shoes of OBL. Then these I usually pounce on with OBL - focusing on hitting the 2nds most often.

In the shoe start example I posted earlier on this thread - part of the challenge was to see how NOR players would best start - and when - if the tables do not have any strong bias. I know you often emphasize DO NOT PLAY unless we have strong bias recon info.

But - nevertheless - if we lean on the bias of OBL and S40 with the shoe start I showed below - then how and when would you begin betting, and what is your strategy/selection system?

Thank you for your time and input.

Daytrader77459

Hi Daytrader! First, excellent performance on your recent play and good thinking all the way through.

I should have realized from your first post in this series that you were playing preshuffled cards. So I take back everything I said about shoe starts. What I said below is fine for continuous play of regular casino prepped cards but usually not for preshuffled.

I don't think you can have set rules for shoe starts in preshuffled either. I think its purely situational. And I think you are responding very well. Some shoes will start all over the place and some will start with a pronounced bias. It depends on where the player happened to put the cut card. They still do cut the cards, right? Sometimes you will be able to start right out at play 6 or 7 and sometimes you may end up sitting out a whole column.

I think your hit and run approach is also a good posture for preshuffled and I think +7 is a good game for preshuffled. I also think you will see a lot of primarily OTB4L shoes because they are usually so casino favorable. I think there is one thing we can count on with preshuffled - that whatever the bias is it will shortly change. Whoever is shuffling the cards, that is what they are paid for. Casinos are trying to improve on their 26% drop - and I'm guessing they will. I cannot improve on the way you are handling preshuffled. I would be doing the same thing.

But I do have a question: Granted the Singaporeans HAVE to play preshuffled. But you are playing in Vegas for crying out loud. Why are you bothering with preshuffled? Why not stick to regular cards like the wall isle at Gold Coast? I found the biases there very dependable all the way through the shoes. And I'm sure there are plenty of other "straight" games in Vegas. Or are they ALL going to preshuffled these days?

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I would like to see the actual shuffle the factory (or whoever shuffles the cards) uses. That would be very interesting to me. We had a situation in A.C. that lasted for about a year. They would split the 8 deck shoe in 2 piles of 4 decks each. One pile would get a long carefull shuffle producing extreme chop. The other pile would get a quick cursory shuffle producing extreme streak. Then they would plug 2 decks of streak, 2 of chop, 2 of streak and 2 of chop. We would cut in the middle and use 18 play columns on our scorecard. We could quickly see what the first col was and play it accordingly. Then we would switch each column. We could even adjust for column starts. We were so in tune with the shuffle that we could kill every shoe. So they abandoned that shuffle after about a year. I suspect that a similar approach is being used with today's preshuffled cards.

I still think preshuffling should be outlawed. It decidedly breaks long standing control commission rules. For instance, how do you even know all the cards are there??? How do you know the cards were even shuffled? Remember in AC a few weeks back, it turned out the cards were not shuffled. They were in boxed card order! The players killed the game. Now the casino is trying to sue the players. Ha, good luck with that! It was decidedly the casino's fault.

To me, controlling a shuffle to produce a desired effect is outright cheating. It is certainly considered cheating in a Saturday night poker game! On the other hand, if the cards were always perfectly random, OTB4L would rule. It almost does now! Ha, that would be OK by me!

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I take it you guys are simply not interested in BJ. I seem to be posting into thin air on the BJ forum.

I think this could be largely my fault. There is no question that BJ can make more money than Bac. This is especially true these days when Bac is getting harder to beat what with preshuffled cards and all. Also all the casino attention today is on Bac because it is the number one casino table game profit maker. That used to be BJ just a couple years ago and then all the casino focus was on BJ. But not any more. Today there is virtually no casino attention paid to BJ and it has become very easy to beat. Case in point: I used to say that only about 10% of BJ games were beatable. The whole idea was how to find those beatable tables. But about a year ago I found BJ so easy to beat at Gold Strike, Tunica that I decided to play every table in the casino. It took a while but I beat every table - about14. Casinos have simply taken their eye off of BJ but watch Bac like a hawk. The fact that I beat every BJ table in the casino didn't even raise a casino eyebrow. Ha, but watch them gather when I play Bac.

I have often said that BJ is harder to learn than BAC. This was certainly true when I said it but it's simply not true anymore. Just a few years ago we could beat Bac at any casino with S40 alone or OTB4L alone. Today we need nothing short of NOR which is 3 systems with 2 modes each - not so simple. Meanwhile BJ is still only 2 systems with no modes, First Base for clumped cards and Third base for random (new) cards. I used to say BJ was harder because you had to learn 2 systems while Bac only required one. Also 90% of BJ games would become over clumped to the point of unplayable. Today BJ doesn't get enough play to become over clumped. So, more like 90% of BJ games are beatable these days. The whoe Bac/BJ situation has reversed itself.

I think from a teaching standpoint and from a manual standpoint we need to take a lesson from Bac. In Bac we boiled down a whole bunch of Bac systems into ONE all inclusive system and ONE all inclusive manual. I think it would be even easier these days to do the exact same thing with BJ - ONE all inclusive but short manual.

NBJ 3rd Base for random cards: You play basic strategy from third base with a 3 bet progression. How hard can we possibly make that? I'm thinking the whole system can be completely covered in a new manual in 3 or 4 pages. BS is designed for random cards and is the best way random cards can be played.

NBJ 1st base for clumped cards. Two bet sizes and you go by the last 3 cards dealt in the prior round. How hard does that have to be? This system would also explain when to insure. You don't insure from 3rd base because the cards are random.

A few pages of table selection, playing and betting tips, tricks of the trade and that's it.

We can leave out all the stuff about card counting, all special BS charts and just stick to the basic facts you need to know to win. I'm thinking a straight forward maybe 30 page all inclusive manual. Today's game is that easy. It is not nearly as tough as it was when I played full time.

That way, I think we could generate a lot more interest.

What do you guys think?

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Like, for instance, I'll bet a lot of you just now realized from my last post that you would only consider insurance bets while playing First Base BJ. From Third base the cards should be too random usually making insurance a bad bet. I say "usually" because there are often a clump or two in mostly random cards just as there are often random sections in clumped cards. But my point is that BJ can be greatly simplified from the hodge podge it is right now. It can actually be made simpler than NOR. My quest is to make you winning players no matter the game. But right now BJ is where the most money is. This I know.

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High limit pits throwing out OBL shoes is like a gift from heaven. I'm sorry to hear the "group" got hurt by it, but I trust you managed your way through to some nice profits :) See you soon.

Don't know what kind of cards you were seeing in the high limit room but in AC we never see preshuffled in High limit rooms. It's always 8 boxed decks of new cards every shoe prepped and shuffled right there at the table. OTB4L shoes are extremely common. But you still must go by what you are seeing that day at that time at that table.

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I take it you guys are simply not interested in BJ. I seem to be posting into thin air on the BJ forum.

We can leave out all the stuff about card counting, all special BS charts and just stick to the basic facts you need to know to win. I'm thinking a straight forward maybe 30 page all inclusive manual. Today's game is that easy. It is not nearly as tough as it was when I played full time.

That way, I think we could generate a lot more interest.

What do you guys think?

Ellis,

I believe that probably everyone on this forum is aware of BS and most can run down several decks of cards and make the "correct" BS plays with little problem. That's because we all started in the casinos on blackjack/21 in our all important "formative" years. :rolleyes:

With that said, once we saw the rules constantly changing in BJ to beat down on the player, it became obvious that baccarat had become the best table game available and it was "next in line" in the casino for the non-Asian players.

With the advent of the 6/5 payouts, continuous shuffle machines and heavy scrutiny at the BJ table, the game appeared to become something that should be avoided as there was an easier way to make the money, and that was baccarat.

I always enjoyed playing BJ, but it's simply on the dollar games now, when you can find them. I am not about to fight the constant rules changes in BJ because the casino's drop lost a few percentage points.

Maybe it's just me, but those are the reasons I've pretty much avoided BJ in the last few years almost completely!

I do enjoy reading about you guys beating up the casinos with your current team play and it does appear to be a logical solution to BJ but I just can't pull myself away from the baccarat tables to put in the time to beat up on BJ.

This is just my opinion but it may sum up the thoughts of many lurkers and fellow bac players.

MVS (still the best three years of my gambling life, right here in BTC)

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Like, for instance, I'll bet a lot of you just now realized from my last post that you would only consider insurance bets while playing First Base BJ. From Third base the cards should be too random usually making insurance a bad bet. I say "usually" because there are often a clump or two in mostly random cards just as there are often random sections in clumped cards. But my point is that BJ can be greatly simplified from the hodge podge it is right now. It can actually be made simpler than NOR. My quest is to make you winning players no matter the game. But right now BJ is where the most money is. This I know.

Hi Ellis,

You have my attention but I hate to back off of Baccarat. I have played Blackjack forever but since I have never been able to make anything consistently I have been putting all my attention to Baccarat even though it isn't available to me here in Arizona and I have to play Bet Phoenix in order to play for money. I do have Blackjack available in the local casinos but I haven't paid much attention to it since I have never been able to do any good playing it. So what should I do? I love NOR and AD & ADN and the PvB Net Betting that we never really finished developing.

What to do? What do you suggest because I really hate to start all over with a new game even though I know basic strategy pretty well, it just never seemed to work out for me (that's a shock based on what you have been saying about basic strategy).

Please share your thoughts.

Thanks

Jim

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Ellis,

I believe that probably everyone on this forum is aware of BS and most can run down several decks of cards and make the "correct" BS plays with little problem. That's because we all started in the casinos on blackjack/21 in our all important "formative" years. :rolleyes:

With that said, once we saw the rules constantly changing in BJ to beat down on the player, it became obvious that baccarat had become the best table game available and it was "next in line" in the casino for the non-Asian players.

With the advent of the 6/5 payouts, continuous shuffle machines and heavy scrutiny at the BJ table, the game appeared to become something that should be avoided as there was an easier way to make the money, and that was baccarat.

I always enjoyed playing BJ, but it's simply on the dollar games now, when you can find them. I am not about to fight the constant rules changes in BJ because the casino's drop lost a few percentage points.

Maybe it's just me, but those are the reasons I've pretty much avoided BJ in the last few years almost completely!

I do enjoy reading about you guys beating up the casinos with your current team play and it does appear to be a logical solution to BJ but I just can't pull myself away from the baccarat tables to put in the time to beat up on BJ.

This is just my opinion but it may sum up the thoughts of many lurkers and fellow bac players.

MVS (still the best three years of my gambling life, right here in BTC)

Well I don't blame you at all. I too took a long vacation from BJ when the game got too rough. We were seeing 20 tens in a row far too often in 4 and 6 deck, not to mention 8 deck. Incredibly this didn't even raise an eyebrow for the BS players in the game. Little did they realize that was the kiss of death for them. It was also incredible to me that the players had virtually no understanding of the game which made conditions even worse. They would still play perfect BS not realizing that the shoe was now very low rich making dealer breaks next to impossible. The only way to beat the game now was dealer strategy. Incredibly some of these idiots would even spread to two hands making a dealer favorable game even more dealer favorable.

But then Poker became popular. That and the fact that BJ had become so hard for BS players to beat emptied out the BJ tables. Of course the growing popularity of Bac also helped empty out the BJ tables. The casinos responded by introducing one and two deck hand held games. And, at the same time, it had become far easier to get head to head games. So I began playing again and I was shocked at how easy the game had become for NBJ players and how easy it was to get head to head games. I'm guessing that half the games I played were head to head. And if the floor didn't have any head to head opportunities, the high stakes parlors virtually always did.

So starting 3 years ago, my table searches included both Bac and BJ, just like in the old days. But BJ had become far easier than it ever was in the old days. That is what gave me the idea one day recently to attempt to beat every BJ table in the casino at Gold Strike Tunica. I beat all the other table easily but one $50 2 deck table gave me some competition and that one table took longer to beat. I'm guessing it took about 45 minutes.

While the pit boss and dealers and even some of the players, who had begun following me around, were incredulous that I could beat every table especially during peak hours, I was even more incredulous! I wouldn't even think about attempting that in the old days when 90% of the tables were unbeatable during peak hours. It was an eye opening experiment.

You mention continuous shufflers. These are very sophisticated machines. Of course they completelty thwart card counting and card counters are taught to avoid them. The machines also maintain clumping so BS players can't beat them either and soon figure that out. I'm not afraid of them at all. They are ripe for NBJ First Base play which functions on clumping. The thing to do is watch the dealer break rate. If it's 1 out of 4, BS will win but this is seldom the case. Since the machine is designed to maintain clumping, the dealer break rate is more like 1 out of 6 or even less. But whatever the break rate is, it will be the same for you if you play dealer strategy. At 1 out of 6 or less you are best off with dealer strategy.

Dealer Strategy has a strong secondary advantage - dealer first card tens. Randomly they should be 4 in thirteen or one in 3 1/4 hands but you will see them double that and worse. I'll bet I've made the statement at the table 10 thousand times: "Look, there is one ten on the table and the dealer's got it". This is a cycle bias caused by Basic Strategy. BS itself causes first card tens to cycle to the dealer because she is the only one at the table playing dealer strategy.

But if you also play dealer strategy the game can no longer tell who is dealing. Now, YOU get the first card tens and remember, when you get a first card ten the odds of you winning the hand at that point just went to 77%. You make the dealer's life miserable. She simply no longer gets the cards she's used to. Now you are playing the dealer even except when you both break the dealer wins. But if the break rate is less than 1 out of 6, that's not a big worry is it? You can make up for that with double downs, splits, insurance and BJs. The dealer can't.

While I'm not afraid of CS machines I don't go looking for them either. But I don't think they will take over BJ. Look, the card counters won't play them. BS players soon learn to avoid them. Who is left but low stakes riffraf. How long will casinos pay huge rentals on CC machines when no value players will play them. I think CC machines are partly responsible for the decline in BJ in Vegas. They've made no inroads anywhere else. You don't see them in Tunica or AC. I think their days are numbered. But who cares. We know how to beat them anyway. Our player Mad Dog made it a point to pick on CC machines in Vegas for a while. He killed them.

But all in all BJ has more than made a comeback. It is enjoying its best days ever. You might think about practicing up and giving it a try. Bac is getting harder while BJ is getting easier. What does that tell you?

BTW, who cares what the payout is on BJs. You only get one every 42 plays. The Vegas casinos are cutting their own throats by screwing around with the games main attraction. Then they cry about having no players. If I owned a casino I would pay out BJs 2 to 1 and take all the business away from these idiots.

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Hi Ellis,

You have my attention but I hate to back off of Baccarat. I have played Blackjack forever but since I have never been able to make anything consistently I have been putting all my attention to Baccarat even though it isn't available to me here in Arizona and I have to play Bet Phoenix in order to play for money. I do have Blackjack available in the local casinos but I haven't paid much attention to it since I have never been able to do any good playing it. So what should I do? I love NOR and AD & ADN and the PvB Net Betting that we never really finished developing.

What to do? What do you suggest because I really hate to start all over with a new game even though I know basic strategy pretty well, it just never seemed to work out for me (that's a shock based on what you have been saying about basic strategy).

Please share your thoughts.

Thanks

Jim

Well TJ you might want to pay close attention to my reply to MVS in post #33.

Also, I don't think I can take Net Betting any further than I already have. Actually I only introduced it for our Singapore players who must play preshuffled cards. I think US Bac players are are better off simply avoiding preshuffled. If everyone avoided them the game would soon vanish here just as the play every hand rule vanished.

I'm not sure what the membership's overall Bac performance is against Bet Phoenix but I know it's pretty darn good. They obviously can be trusted to deal a straight up game and we need not be concerned with preshuffled cards. Makes me think about trying Internet gambling myself but that is hard to do in Arkansas.

I haven't been able to get anybody to try it but I'm very curious as to how we would fare againt live internet BJ games. I don't know how much internet casinos know about clumping. But if they were foolish enough to shuffle to a random condition, they would be pushovers in BJ. That would make for an interesting turn of events because we could then beat them with plain old NBJ 3rd base which anybody who knows BS can learn in a matter of minutes.

Anybody want to give this a try?

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BTW, I'm not advocating that anybody "back off of Baccarat" especially good NOR players. But I also have first hand experience in the advantages of knowing both games. It is just another arrow in your quiver or maybe several arrows.

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Hi Guys,

Ellis,

Reading everything you have written, also purchasing the team play manual, I have to say that I can't wait to learn the single player BJ strategies that you have developed. I started with blackjack, but quit it for Baccarat. I do extremely well in bac, and NOR is now an additive to my play(still taking it all in). I see the reasoning behind playing both games and I don't see a downside at all.(just some more studying on a topic that I enjoy). I can't wait for the AC seminar(which I signed up for) and am just waiting for the manual to become available for me to download.(any help with that would be appreciated).

I am tired of watching people, especially my friends losing at BJ EVERY time they play.

Anyway, that's my opinion. Look forward to meeting you on the 20th.

kramden

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Hi Daytrader--- hows it going?? Sorry again for the delay. Regarding NOR starts -- The first thing I recommend is that you find what is most comfortable for you. Personally, I start pretty much the same way you are. I prefer to see the game with at least 8 or 9 hands played before doing anything. So it is seldom I will jump into a new game. If I do, I start with opposites. Never make a 2 bet until I have won a 1 bet. I played a lot at the Flamingo in the summer. When I jumped into a new game, I would bet on the first hand or two, then win or lose, try to pass on the next several bets if possible. (they let me do that as long as others are betting) Then I make my choices. Let the shoe tell you what to do!

Hope that helps. Give a call or skype if you want to talk!

Steve

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Hi Guys,

Ellis,

Reading everything you have written, also purchasing the team play manual, I have to say that I can't wait to learn the single player BJ strategies that you have developed. I started with blackjack, but quit it for Baccarat. I do extremely well in bac, and NOR is now an additive to my play(still taking it all in). I see the reasoning behind playing both games and I don't see a downside at all.(just some more studying on a topic that I enjoy). I can't wait for the AC seminar(which I signed up for) and am just waiting for the manual to become available for me to download.(any help with that would be appreciated).

I am tired of watching people, especially my friends losing at BJ EVERY time they play.

Anyway, that's my opinion. Look forward to meeting you on the 20th.

kramden

Well first kramden, I'm very happy to hear that you are doing well with NOR. Anyone who can conquer NOR can also conquer BJ.

NOR is 3 systems with 2 modes each. BJ is just two systems with no modes. With NOR, which system to play is not always clear and it's easy to start wrong footed. Then, especially with preshuffled cards, the shoe may wander to a completely different bias. With BJ, which system to play is cut and dry. The table is either clumped or random and it is very easy to tell which it is BEFORE you sit down.

Correct, everyone loses at BJ to the tune of 15% of their buyin money. But you conquered BAC from even further behind. Everyone loses in Bac to the tune of 26%. They lose that much in Bac because they instinctively bet AGAINST biases. Most systems teach you to do that. It's like fighting city hall. Result: 26% world average loss rate. Think about that - you actually studied to learn how to lose at the rate of 26%. NOR goes WITH the bias - no matter what the bias is. Also, the whole world looks at the game from the standpoint of TWO biases - chop and streak. Casinos know this so they go for neutral. You've probably already had the experience of good OTB4L shoes. You are winning easily while everyone else at the table is losing big time. That's when the pit boss starts watching you because you are SUPPOSED to be losing. But, unlike everyone else, you're not. Not only are you not losing, you're winning big time! Pit bosses are always flabbergasted when this happens. They've never seen this before. Their world is shattered.

Everyone loses in BJ because EVERYONE plays by the book. They even scold you when you make a non book play! Every book, every web site teaches you the exact same thing - Basic Strategy with card counting. They are totally unperplexed by the FACT that this hasn't worked in 25 years - not even once. They know this and the casinos know this perfectly well. These BJ gurus might just as well be working for the casinos. The casinos are laughing up their sleeves. Everyone is playing exactly by the book and everyone is losing. So what do the BJ gurus say about this? "It doesn't matter whether you win or lose as long as you make the "correct" play".

For instance: Every single BJ book and web site tells you "NEVER play new cards for the first two hours." I've said it over a million times: "New cards are the best cards you are going to see all day!" NBJ 3rd Base kills them. It is the closest you'll ever get to a CAN'T LOSE situation. When I played full time I always made my bankroll for the day playing new cards in the morning. Winning was virtually guaranteed. I NEVER lost playing new cards in the morning. Never even once. But after that you MUST change systems to NBJ First Base because every BJ game in the casino will clump up over the first two hours. So every BS player is taught to wait until he can't possibly win to start playing. BS CANNOT beat clumped cards. But NBJ First Base is designed for clumped cards. At both Taj 1 and 2 I was playing NBJ First Base against clumped cards on a Saturday afternoon. That was a world record BJ performance. But to the casino it was even more than that because NOBODY is SUPPOSED to win on Saturday afternoon, let alone play to a world record. Ha, and then do the exact same thing again at the exact same table at the exact same time all because Jerry Patterson missed it the first time around. Yet I can teach you face to face exactly what I was doing in ten minutes flat.

The hardest part about teaching NBJ is getting you to forget everything you ever learned about BJ because it is ALL wrong. It is as if these BJ gurus were paid by the casino to make you lose.

Once you have a general idea of Basic Strategy, the two NBJ systems are easy to learn. Plus, unlike NOR, knowing which to play at a given table is cut and dry. So will you beat every table? Maybe, but probably not. The difference is that you will know a losing table right off the bat. You don't wait for a minus eight. You get out of there. But unlike NOR, your chances of sitting down to a losing table are very small. We simply have more ways to tell in BJ.

Yes, learning BJ may be a little harder than learning S40 alone. But compared to NOR, I think BJ is easier once you have a general idea of Basic Strategy. And I'm dying to teach you guys. The game was never easier to beat than it is right now. The casinos have completely let down their guard and have introduced these simple one and two deck games to boot. They are focused on Bac. What I did at Flamingo? That was just plain ordinary Third Base NBJ. I could do it in my sleep. $3000 in a half hour W/O betting over $200 in a 2 deck game. Nowhere near my Taj 8 deck performance!

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