table selection Results of the shoes you choose not to play? | ECD GROUP| May 14, 2013

[ECD]

I have been keeping records not just of shoes played but of shoes that I decided not to play.

I realise that this is not so easy in a "LIVE" Casino... but feel that it is a pretty logical step if playing online (especially for beginners as we grapple with the vagaries of Baccarat)

I still can't quite get the Streak System yet, so for the time being, I limit myself to OTB4L and S40. I'm finding that I'm correct just over 80% of the time when I decide that the shoe isn't a winner for either system. I feel it is of almost equal importance discerning the shoes I should avoid as it is in choosing the right system. Knowing that I have that extra arrow in my quiver gives me more confidence when it comes to "table selection". It's kinda like "Insurance" lol

Maybe...I'm being over cautious ...I dunno...but it works for me

Note: I don't use the OR count to decide whether to play a table or not...Thanks to a few tips from Ellis...I can pretty well recognise the patterns on the Tote Board with a quick glance and mainly just keep an eye on the count as I play the shoe.

BTW: Using this process of elimination and table selection seems to give me a much greater opportunity to successfully utilise U1D1M2

which isn't a bad thing methinks.

Am I being over cautious? Your thoughts?

Oz

[Guest]

I have been keeping records not just of shoes played but of shoes that I decided not to play.

I realise that this is not so easy in a "LIVE" Casino... but feel that it is a pretty logical step if playing online (especially for beginners as we grapple with the vagaries of Baccarat)

I still can't quite get the Streak System yet, so for the time being, I limit myself to OTB4L and S40. I'm finding that I'm correct just over 80% of the time when I decide that the shoe isn't a winner for either system. I feel it is of almost equal importance discerning the shoes I should avoid as it is in choosing the right system. Knowing that I have that extra arrow in my quiver gives me more confidence when it comes to "table selection". It's kinda like "Insurance" lol

Maybe...I'm being over cautious ...I dunno...but it works for me

Note: I don't use the OR count to decide whether to play a table or not...Thanks to a few tips from Ellis...I can pretty well recognise the patterns on the Tote Board with a quick glance and mainly just keep an eye on the count as I play the shoe.

BTW: Using this process of elimination and table selection seems to give me a much greater opportunity to successfully utilise U1D1M2

which isn't a bad thing methinks.

Am I being over cautious? Your thoughts?

Oz

No one betting U1D1M2 is being overly cautious - more the opposite.

But come on! Saying I can play OTB4L but not F is like saying I can play pool but not marbles.

I could teach a roo to play F.

You "follow" the most recent 2 for mode 2 - F2, or the most recent 3 for mode 3 - F3.

If you are seeing more 2s on the other side than 3+s, you play F3.

If you are seeing more 3+s on the other side, you play F2.

If you change sides and lose the first bet, you change right back.

You play F when you are seeing mostly long straight or ZZ runs.

And you play F when one side is much stronger than the other.

just play one practice shoe by the above instructions and you should have it.

F is Baccarat for idiots - but it often makes you look like a genius.

You can get shoes where you never change sides and you automatically score in the 30s or 40s.

The more you are changing sides the less you want to play F.

Start by playing on the strongest side.

F2 change sides when the other side wins 2. (You lose 2 bets)

F3 change sides when the other side wins 3. (You lose 3 bets)

Sometimes you are playing F2 on one side and F3 on the other.

It is especially designed for people our age. Just try to stay awake.

BTW, yes I often go back and look over table I rejected. Sometimes they have turned good by then - and sometimes worse.

[kachatz1]

I have been keeping records not just of shoes played but of shoes that I decided not to play.

I realise that this is not so easy in a "LIVE" Casino... but feel that it is a pretty logical step if playing online (especially for beginners as we grapple with the vagaries of Baccarat)

I still can't quite get the Streak System yet, so for the time being, I limit myself to OTB4L and S40. I'm finding that I'm correct just over 80% of the time when I decide that the shoe isn't a winner for either system. I feel it is of almost equal importance discerning the shoes I should avoid as it is in choosing the right system. Knowing that I have that extra arrow in my quiver gives me more confidence when it comes to "table selection". It's kinda like "Insurance" lol

Maybe...I'm being over cautious ...I dunno...but it works for me

Note: I don't use the OR count to decide whether to play a table or not...Thanks to a few tips from Ellis...I can pretty well recognise the patterns on the Tote Board with a quick glance and mainly just keep an eye on the count as I play the shoe.

BTW: Using this process of elimination and table selection seems to give me a much greater opportunity to successfully utilise U1D1M2

which isn't a bad thing methinks.

Am I being over cautious? Your thoughts?

Oz

Hey Oz-

I often find myself in casinos where ther is only one Bac table, and nobody ( except me) is willing to give-it-a-go......and to take it to real playing conditions here in the states, most casinos WILL NOT deal hands unless someone is betting...

Not sure how they handle this where you play, but generally, here in the USA, if only one person is playing, they let that person play BOTH sides ( bet on Player and Banker simultaneously)...

Here is how I approach these types of situations

1) I place an equal bet on both P and B, every hand until I make up my mind which type of shoe I am in...worst case, let's say I play ten hands that way to " start" a shoe....after each hand, if P wins, they take my B bet, and pay me for P win...net result is no win/no lose....if, on the other hand B wins, they take my P bet, pay my B bet, and my " net loss" is simply the amount of commission on my B bet

2) Now lets say after awhile I have identified a shoe bias, and am ready to play NOR....along we go,me playing by myself, and let's just imagine we get to a point in the shoe where I am " unsure" what to do next....I simply revert to step 1 as above, and play both sides (P and until I am ready to resume playing confidently my NOR game

Make sense?

This way, I am able to play very, very fast....and all by myself, even without a tote board(!), since I just keep track of the game on my scorecard...

I admit I have played this game for many years, and I admit for almost every player I have ever met, " playing alone" ( just me and the dealer) is usually very " scary" to most people!

Not scary at all to me...in fact I prefer it over a crowded, slow - pace of play...after all, once the cards are in the shoe, so long as you have a competent dealer, the P/B results for the whole game are already predetermined by the shuffle, right? No amount of player influence will change the outcome of the game...

So....in summary, even if for half of the shoe I end up having to " play both sides" so I can see the shoe bias, worst I can do is lose my 5% Banker commission on about 50% of the hands where I play both P and B...example, let's say in a very extreme example I play 40 hands out of 80 ( 8-deck shoe) this way, and since I play min bet both sides ( usually $25 min. here), say half are Banker result, that means my total commission lost will be $25 ( 5% x $25 x 20 Banker results).....which is only the same as losing a single bet ($25) after having played 1/2 the shoe!

This is how I handle playing virtually ANY shoe, no matter what casino, day or night....

Hope this helps.

[kachatz1]

Hey EVERYONE here on BTC-

I just wanted to add to my post to OZ , but really wanted to reach out to all of you...

I definitely understand the importance of table selection, and as Ellis advises, it really is " rule #1" before deciding to play and risk your bankroll. Believe me, if I do have a selection of tables, I will choose the one exhibiting the greatest bias...

But I also want all of you , especially those of you who are just learning NOR, or do not have as much experience playing Bac to keep in mind a few things which will most definitely build your confidence in playing the game.

1) Once you truly/ really understand NOR, you will be disciplined enough to quickly make each bet selection. You will no longer " care about" what everyone else at the table is betting on, and you will NOT even need a tote board since the information on your scorecard will be far more valuable...

2) Of course you have all heard the expression " YOU CAN'T WIN THEM ALL"...well, in playing BAC, even armed with NOR and good money management skills, once you really have a feel for the game, you will quickly learn how to identify exploitable shoe biases...and when you find yourself playing a shoe without a bias, color-up and move on to another table.

3) Last, but perhaps most important, once you fully " buy-in" to the concept of " shoe bias" and recognize how to exploit the identifiable shoe patterns of the shoe you are playing, you will be sooooooooooo capable of making solid playing decisions that likely you will truly know how to turn NOR/NOR+ into a shoe win-rate of about 7-in-10, and your win-totals/player advantage % will really go up over where they might be currently...

Plain-and-simple, if you are going to play Baccarat, understanding NOR/NOR+ gives you a "tool" that I equate to the GPS/Navigation system in my car...YES, sure I can still read a road map (tote board), but I'm a better/safer driver when I don't have to take my eyes off the road....

[Guest]

Again, very well said kachatz, both posts!

Let me add a few things:

Of course when you bet both sides because it is the only way to see a few hands, bet the table min on both sides.

Most casinos today will deal a few free hands if you ask. In fact in Vegas I found myself saying: "Wait a second, I wanted to bet that hand." And for those that won't, nearly all will let you bet both sides.

I too prefer to play head to head, esp. new, regular cards at Tunica, where I know the card prep favors OTB4L. Because you can play a whole shoe in about 15 minutes.

You also see the rule where the dealer must deal out the entire shoe. So what if you hit your +20 and there are 12 or so hands left and the dealer won't start a new shoe? No, you DON'T defy your stop win! - just play it out betting both sides. After a pit boss sees you do this he usually tells the dealer to shuffle whenever that single player asks. Otherwise his rule, in your case, just serves to waste time.

When playing head to head, whether BJ or Bac, you grab control away from the dealer. You control the speed of the game, where it starts and where it ends. Your biggest advantage over the dealer is that you can start and quit wherever you want - the dealer can't.

Changing the topic to biases:

Look, nearly all shoes are biased. If it isn't choppy and it isn't streaky, it is random - Therefore OTB4L biased. I noted in Vegas that even some of our most experienced players missed strong OTB4L biases. That can be a serious mistake because OTB4L is the most commom bias. My own biggest mistake in Vegas was switching FROM OTB4L. Every single time I tried this it turned out WRONG. Preshuffled cards favor OTB4L nearly every time. Zebra and I tried a couple of touch games playing OTB4L. We beat everyone at the table easily. Players have no idea of how to beat random cards (OTB4L) - That is why the casino favors them.

Look, "preshuffled" cards are really not shuffled at all. They are fixed. And they are usually fixed favoring OTB4L because nobody knows how to beat such shoes - except us. And we love the darn things - just give OTB4L a little more chance than usual. It nearly always pulls through thanks to U1D2. Don't be changing systems every time you lose 2 hands, like I see many of you doing. Give it a chance.

Look, if you owned the casino and your card manufacturer asked you: "What kind of shoes do you want?" What would you say? Remember you already know that players in general and en masse lose to OTB4L. THAT is what makes your impossibly high profits. How else could players lose at a rate several times higher than commission would dictate???

Commission is 1.25% of the money bet. Casinos couldn't even begin to survive on that - hence OTB4L. Get it? How else could they average 15% profits in a 50/50 game???

Oh, and don't be trying to feed me that mathematical crap about negative expectancy. Baccarat has no negative expectancy. The game odds are 50/50. Watch my lips - 50/50. Every play is 50/50. Commission has nothing to do with the game odds any more than tips you give to the waitress. It is a totally independent event. Players, on average, lose at a far greater rate than commission. The vast majority have already lost even BEFORE they pay their commission. How? Why? Because they have no idea of how to play OTB4L shoes. But we DO!

[Sarrom]

No one betting U1D1M2 is being overly cautious - more the opposite.

But come on! Saying I can play OTB4L but not F is like saying I can play pool but not marbles.

I could teach a roo to play F.

You "follow" the most recent 2 for mode 2 - F2, or the most recent 3 for mode 3 - F3.

If you are seeing more 2s on the other side than 3+s, you play F3.

If you are seeing more 3+s on the other side, you play F2.

If you change sides and lose the first bet, you change right back.

You play F when you are seeing mostly long straight or ZZ runs.

And you play F when one side is much stronger than the other.

just play one practice shoe by the above instructions and you should have it.

F is Baccarat for idiots - but it often makes you look like a genius.

You can get shoes where you never change sides and you automatically score in the 30s or 40s.

The more you are changing sides the less you want to play F.

Start by playing on the strongest side.

F2 change sides when the other side wins 2. (You lose 2 bets)

F3 change sides when the other side wins 3. (You lose 3 bets)

Sometimes you are playing F2 on one side and F3 on the other.

It is especially designed for people our age. Just try to stay awake.

BTW, yes I often go back and look over table I rejected. Sometimes they have turned good by then - and sometimes worse.

Having said that about F - if you walk by a table that has dealt about 20 hands and its clearly B dominant, but just ran off 4 Players in a row, would you jump on the Player streak, as if you've been playing since the beginning, or, jump on the dominant side?

[ECD]

Thanks to both you guys.

As usual...I ask a simple question and learn much more than I anticipated (which can't be a bad thing)

I can see the advantage of playing head to head now...but it's something that requires a bit more gumption than I currently possess (I was at the Sydney Casino last night and missed out on a couple of opportunities because of my reticence)

Nevertheless...I am convinced of the benefits and will bite the bullet next time.

The majority of tables were definitely OTB4L favorable to varying degrees but ...my unwillingness to play hth caused me to miss out on the best S40 shoe I have ever seen.

It started out... P21111112111...$150min table and the dealer was just sitting there twiddling his thumbs lol

I checked back later and could have kicked myself...It turned out to be a long shoe and it continued as it started albeit with just a few 3's thrown in and one run of 8 (which would have worked out fine)... all of the 2's and the few 3's were followed by zz and the 8iar as well. Blind Freddy could have beaten that table yet, surprisingly ...as I looked back from where I was sitting...only a few people were playing....Go figure... lol

Also...I noted what turned out to be a brilliant F table...It was slightly leaning towards OTB4L at the start (but not enough to get too excited) and went into "Streak" like you wouldn't believe.

My prob is my reluctance to play "F" at this stage...and then...knowing when to change to F.

I do agree that it is best to be fully armed (with a quiver full of arrows) and will dedicate this weekend to getting F down pat. Though Ellis... I gotta tell you...I must be a little thick coz I don't find F nearly as easy to play as you tell me (perhaps my mother did drop me on my head as a baby)lol

Anyway...Thanks again to both of you for your input

Oz

[ECD]

Having said that about F - if you walk by a table that has dealt about 20 hands and its clearly B dominant, but just ran off 4 Players in a row, would you jump on the Player streak, as if you've been playing since the beginning, or, jump on the dominant side?

Good question...I'd like the answer to that as well

[Guest]

Having said that about F - if you walk by a table that has dealt about 20 hands and its clearly B dominant, but just ran off 4 Players in a row, would you jump on the Player streak, as if you've been playing since the beginning, or, jump on the dominant side?

Player because that is now the strong side. SS does not necessarily mean the same side is always SS. It means that the shoe tends to favor one side or the other most of the time. Runs following runs. It could be 41414 but it could also be 45464. Or it could be choppy and SS at the same time such as 21213121. F loves sporadic 1's.

[kachatz1]

Good question...I'd like the answer to that as well

Oz-

Here's an answer I think you will identify with...( and Sarrom, should help you as well...)

If the first 20 hands are strong B favorable, and along comes a 4 in-a-row ( IAR) on the Player, this pretty much HAS2B an F- favorable shoe, at least to this point

Earlier, OZ, you mentioned not completely keeping track of the Opposites/Repeats count...well, if after 20 hands, the shoe is " heavily B favorable", and then comes 4 P's...guess what, it is officially by all math standards a heavy "R" ( repeat) shoe, meaning it warrants playing as such...( unless it is something unusual like B1-12,11111111)

I honestly think the concepts of F2 and F3 modes are the single most difficult thing to grasp about NOR....for me, an "R" shoe is easily played just staying OTR ( on the run) until it ends, even if you have to switch sides often...see Ellis' example 45464 below...( yes, it happens often enough to be looking out to exploit it, even if it only lasts for part of a shoe !!!

Make sense? ( if no, just say so...no dumb questions here...)

BUT, no matter what, keep an O/R count, my friends...

And the lesson here? TRACK the O/R count!! It is one of the key components/ signals/indicators of how to apply NOR...

Good luck to you both!

[ztomsk]

For F - when you are making your choice to go OTR (switch sides) on the weak side do you use a count for 2's vs. 3's+ to determine the mode or do you use the 3rd bet rule?

When I play OTB4L I use the 3rd bet rule for mode 2 and 3, but I use a count for mode 1. But for OTB4L the 3rd bet rule pertains to 4s and 5s... and in F the 3rd bet rule pertains to 2s and 3s, which "should" be more stable. So I don't really know the best way to determine the mode for F?

By the way I know why this forum uses the vertical scorecard, but for those who are having trouble grasping F it might be worth a shot to go off of the horizontal tote board - couldn't be easier to see strong vs weak run lengths. And you could also still keep track on a vertical scorecard as well if u wanted...

[Guest]

For F - when you are making your choice to go OTR (switch sides) on the weak side do you use a count for 2's vs. 3's+ to determine the mode or do you use the 3rd bet rule?

When I play OTB4L I use the 3rd bet rule for mode 2 and 3, but I use a count for mode 1. But for OTB4L the 3rd bet rule pertains to 4s and 5s... and in F the 3rd bet rule pertains to 2s and 3s, which "should" be more stable. So I don't really know the best way to determine the mode for F?

By the way I know why this forum uses the vertical scorecard, but for those who are having trouble grasping F it might be worth a shot to go off of the horizontal tote board - couldn't be easier to see strong vs weak run lengths. And you could also still keep track on a vertical scorecard as well if u wanted...

Yes, both methods lead you to the same mode - for the same reason. It is just that with F, you are more likely to be starting somewhere mid shoe - unless you have found a consistently streaky table. It's usually easier to simply look back at 2s vs 3+s on the weak side on the tote board rather than to reconstruct your 3rd bets in your head. But it all amounts to the same thing. F3 hates 3s. F2 hates 2s.

[Sarrom]

Lets say for example that there are 3 2's and then 1 3 when we enter mid shoe. Would you suggest playing m3 because 2 are most common, or m2 because the last streak on the weak side was a 3?

[Guest]

Lets say for example that there are 3 2's and then 1 3 when we enter mid shoe. Would you suggest playing m3 because 2 are most common, or m2 because the last streak on the weak side was a 3?

A very intelligent question Sarrom!

Personally, I and the 3rd bet rule go by the latest information at least until/if that proves wrong. When it does, which is usually rare, the best thing to do is stay in the mode showing the highest propensity.

For instance, if the third bet rule has kept me in the right mode for half a shoe or so and then suddenly tells me to switch modes based on one lonely event, I'm likely going to ignore that last event until my ignorance proves wrong.

The idea with modes in NOR+ is to USUALLY be right. That way U1D2 can take up the slack. With OTB4L I freqently stay in the same mode for a whole shoe unless that mode is wrong more often than it is right. The chopier a table is the more I favor Mode 3 and the streakier it is the more I favor Mode 2.

But F is really a different creature because you are only interested in the run length on the weak side. Sometimes when the weak side is VERY weak, I'll stay on the SS all the way to a 4 bet. (I sort of create a Mode 4 for that particular shoe.) Of course that backfires now and then.

One OTB4L shoe in Vegas Zebra found himself saying to me: Why are you betting P will go 3 when it stayed at 2 the last 12 times?" I replied: "That's just too many 2s!" I was right!......That time!

[ECD]

It's good to see that I'm not alone with trying to grasp the F System.

These guys make it sound so easy...I fear I risk Ellis getting a little frustrated with me

I'm thinking that the best way for me to grasp the F strategy is to find a shoe with all the possible F variables...post it and see if we can get a play by play

I seem to have a reasonable grasp of S40 and OTB4L to the point that both systems are becoming second nature...but F scares me a little.

I suspect that I'm a bit like the little kid in school that has no probs with multiplication and division...but has issues with simple addition.

That frustrates me no end...DAMMIT

OK...Just came across a shoe that I would normally put in the "too hard" basket...It's either an "F" shoe or a "No Play"...Gotta go to work now but will post it later and hopefully get a play by play from one of our resident "F" Gurus...(No disrespect intended)

[Guest]

I don't get frustrated goddammit!

[Sarrom]

A very intelligent question Sarrom!

Personally, I and the 3rd bet rule go by the latest information at least until/if that proves wrong. When it does, which is usually rare, the best thing to do is stay in the mode showing the highest propensity.

For instance, if the third bet rule has kept me in the right mode for half a shoe or so and then suddenly tells me to switch modes based on one lonely event, I'm likely going to ignore that last event until my ignorance proves wrong.

The idea with modes in NOR+ is to USUALLY be right. That way U1D2 can take up the slack. With OTB4L I freqently stay in the same mode for a whole shoe unless that mode is wrong more often than it is right. The chopier a table is the more I favor Mode 3 and the streakier it is the more I favor Mode 2.

But F is really a different creature because you are only interested in the run length on the weak side. Sometimes when the weak side is VERY weak, I'll stay on the SS all the way to a 4 bet. (I sort of create a Mode 4 for that particular shoe.) Of course that backfires now and then.

One OTB4L shoe in Vegas Zebra found himself saying to me: Why are you betting P will go 3 when it stayed at 2 the last 12 times?" I replied: "That's just too many 2s!" I was right!......That time!

Have you ever considered making the decision based on the OR count or trending of. Ie) a neg trend in the OR count goes mode 2, and vice versa. Also, would you consider different modes for different sides?

Thank you.

[Guest]

Have you ever considered making the decision based on the OR count or trending of. Ie) a neg trend in the OR count goes mode 2, and vice versa. Also, would you consider different modes for different sides?

Thank you.

Well, not so much for mode decision because 1's which are meaningless for mode decision can be high causing a high + OR count. In other words 1's control the OR count but have nothing to do with 2's vs 3+s which control mode decision when playing F. F wins on all 1's regardless which side they are on. So F likes 1's. And 1's are normally half of all events. Trying to determine mode by the OR count can be misleading but 2s vs 3+s, in other words the 3rd bet rule, directly determines mode.

True that the more negative an OR count gets the more 3+s a shoe likely has and the more you want to be in mode 2. But why attempt to use an indirect indicator when a direct indicator is available right under your nose?

Yes, you definitely consider different modes for different sides. Once you change sides successfully, you are now looking at 2s vs 3s on the new weak side. That will often put you in one mode for one side and the other mode for the other side, BUT recognize that will only be true about half the time.

The BEST thing that can happen playing F is when one side can't muster more than a 1 iar. (Sporadic 1's). (Mode 2)

The next best thing that can happen is when one side can't muster more than a 2 iar. Mode 3 cleans house.

And the third best thing that can happen is long runs either straight or ZZ or both. Mode 2.

Recognize that only 1's can produce a + OR count.

2s are neutral

Only 3+s can produce a negative OR count.

So yes, OR is a good indicator but not the best indicator for mode determination.

[Guest]

When you first start, everything is quite mysterious. But as you play and practice, every event that occurs begins to have meaning giving you more and more guidance. It doesn't take long before every bet you make is made from sound evidence and eventually every bet is automatic. Soon you are first at the table to have your bet up and you are usually right. That is when the other players begin having respect for you. Soon, that respect turns into admiration. Next, they think you clairvoyant. And next, here comes the pit boss.

[ECD]

I don't get frustrated goddammit!

That cracked me up...couldn't stop laughing:biggrin:

[ECD]

When you first start, everything is quite mysterious. But as you play and practice, every event that occurs begins to have meaning giving you more and more guidance. It doesn't take long before every bet you make is made from sound evidence and eventually every bet is automatic. Soon you are first at the table to have your bet up and you are usually right. That is when the other players begin having respect for you. Soon, that respect turns into admiration. Next, they think you clairvoyant. And next, here comes the pit boss.

LOL....You are in fine form tonight Ellis

[ECD]

OK Ellis....Here is a shoe I decided against playing...In the early part of the shoe it was looking like it had to be an "F" shoe.

I played it as F afterwards and did OK...but I have some questions just to get things clear in my head...

Assuming no previous table history...

1) At what point do you decide it is most likely an F shoe and jump on board?...and your reasons?

2) Do you start in F3 or F2?

3) What betting strategy would you use? ie: 123... 234...1234...U1D2 (As I recall in the manual F2 is normally 123 or 234 in good F2 shoes and 1234 in F3 shoes) (I'm guessing U1D2 is the go to betting strategy for NOR+ even for F shoes)

4) If switching between F2 and F3 how do you reconcile your betting progression (if you are using 123 or 234 for F2 and 1234 for F3)

5) At what stage would you opt out?...or would you stay with the shoe till the end using the "half decade" rule.

Of course...if you turn around and say that no way is this an F shoe...you will most likely hear my screams of frustration all the way from Australia as I butt my head against the nearest solid brick wall.

The shoe...and if you can find the time to do a play by play...I would be a very grateful old Oz...

P48212111

B1112144114

P3412311111

Thanks in advance

Oz

UPDATE... Just played an F shoe online following (I think) Ellis's instructions to the letter and came out in front by 22 units...I could have done better if I had had jumped in earlier but I was overly cautious...also started out with U1D2...switched to U1D2M2...got a bit edgy and switched back after hitting my first 5 bet(4th bet)

I figure that it is more important that I played the shoe correctly than it was to come out in front...I'll post the shoe and maybe someone can analyse it for me

I jumped in at play 13......First question...Were there obvious signs that I should have jumped in earlier?...If so...What were the signs?

Also...I played the whole shoe in F3...Was that correct play or not?

B21114191

P3131291

P12111221111

[Guest]

Wow, we are definitely getting into the fine points of F. I haven't bothered with F much lately because NOR+ seldom gets into F in a casino because of the expanded coverage of NOR+ OTB4L together with the strong favorage of OTB4L by today's casinos. But playing on line we see more F shoes. And we will still see F shoes occassionally in the casinos.

In Las Vegas, the casinos have long had a casino Baccarat consortium that advises casinos what Bac shoes to favor. The result is that you will see the same shoe types all over Las Vegas during a trip. Ha, but your next trip they may well be favoring a different shoe type - maybe S40 or maybe F. This is because the consortium likes to present a moving target. (to catch you with your pants down). But they will STILL favor OTB4L in the long run. Vegas has been that way as long as I have played there.

Now A.C. is totally different. Each casino is on their own and going from one casino to another is like night and day - both BJ and Bac BUT whatever a casino is presenting they usually stick to that shoe type for several weeks.

Tunica is totally different. You can be getting choppy S40 shoes all day and then boom, around 10PM they switch to super streak and catch the whole table with their pants down.

The internet seems to be a combination of the above and you need to be on your toes for just about anything.

The Gulf Coast seems to be each casino on their own - much like A.C.

But I can recall Vegas trips when there was at least a 9iar in every shoe in every casino. You will still have F days in Vegas.

These guys are smart. I can't belabor that point too much.

You know, I used to read a lot of gaming books. But I don't anymore. They all started out the same way with the author telling you how smart he is and how stupid casinos are. At that point I throw the book away because the author has no idea of what he's talking about and is concentrating purely on book sales. While I played full time for many years, I have yet to see a single one of these "experts" in a casino with the one exception of Kenny Uston - and he ended up losing his shirt sticking to card counting in AC even after the casinos obviously knew exactly how to foil it.

But lets see if I can shed some light on F because sooner or later, you will all run into a slew of F shoes nomatter where you play and ozscouser1 is asking the right questions:

OK Ellis....Here is a shoe I decided against playing...In the early part of the shoe it was looking like it had to be an "F" shoe.

I played it as F afterwards and did OK...but I have some questions just to get things clear in my head...

Assuming no previous table history...

1) At what point do you decide it is most likely an F shoe and jump on board?...and your reasons?

Your main F signal is 4 or mores (4+s). Any shoe starting with a 4+ is almost certainly an F shoe - few exceptions. I always tell players to ALWAYS bet under a starting 4 no matter if they had already started with something else. Also, a very SS (Strong Side) is a virtually mandatory F signal as well as a high negative OR count. But also because such shoes are obviously not OTB4L or S40 - process of elimination.

2)Do you start in F3 or F2?

Previous 3+s strongly indicate F2 while 2s indicate F3. However with F, SS can give you conflicting evidence. A strong side indicates F3 and Keith and Paul and I usually put more credibility in SS than in the 3rd bet rule, at least starting out.

Recognize that there are two totally different F shoe types:

The most obvious is Strong Side which strongly points to F3

The other is Runs Following Runs either ST or ZZ. Here, the 3rd bet rule dictates.

Your first shoe starts with a 4 so I'm thinking SS - F3. BUT, then the shoe goes about equal strength on both sides so I'm switching to the 3rd bet rule at play 29. That is the first place a decision comes up.

3) What betting strategy would you use? ie: 123... 234...1234...U1D2 (As I recall in the manual F2 is normally 123 or 234 in good F2 shoes and 1234 in F3 shoes) (I'm guessing U1D2 is the go to betting strategy for NOR+ even for F shoes)

4) If switching between F2 and F3 how do you reconcile your betting progression (if you are using 123 or 234 for F2 and 1234 for F3)

Yes, the NOR Manual uses 123 4 for everything. But we mostly have all graduated to NOR+ which uses U1D2 for everythig if not U1D1, if not U1D1M2 in exceptional cases.

My view on progs is this: Since we are now only going to F only in clearly F situations (high F hit rate situations) we can afford U1D2 across the board - including F - and S40 for the same reason. U1D2 can beat anything 123 4 can beat - just better!

For instance, take a 131313. That is clearly an SS situation calling for F3 under the NOR view of things. But we also now note (NOR+) that OTB4L beats every event thus far and we would now favor OTB4L since NOR+ favors OTB4L.

But now lets look at a 141414. OTB4L does not like 4s and can only barely beat them in mode 3. But from an F standpoint it is even more SS and F likes both 4s and 1's in either mode. So today, we are looking at a NOR+ F situation calling for U1D2 because it is so clearly an F situation.

5) At what stage would you opt out?...or would you stay with the shoe till the end using the "half decade" rule.

U1D2 is good for +20 IN A FULL SHOE which your's are not and I don't know which end in missing but I'm guessing the front end. I'm thinking you are missing pretty much the first col. But in a casino, I'm going to know that and therefore know to adjust my goal to about +15 accordingly. But on top of that I'm still likely to quit when I hit the same high score the second time - definitely the 3rd time. And I'm still favoring half decade cash mgt in the last 12 plays or so. See, in a casino I know what actual play# I'm at. Even if there are no tote boards, the other players can tell me.

Of course...if you turn around and say that no way is this an F shoe...you will most likely hear my screams of frustration all the way from Australia as I butt my head against the nearest solid brick wall.

No worries! Your first shoe is clearly F right from the start.

Your second shoe is an F shoe disguised as OTB4L until right where you started. The disquise got torn off. You started at exactly the right place. Had I been playing OTB4L I likely would have switched to F somewhere during the 9 - or maybe even during the prior 4 given the 5iar ZZ.

The shoe...and if you can find the time to do a play by play...I would be a very grateful old Oz...

P48212111

B1112144114

P3412311111

Thanks in advance

OK, I'll do a quicky since I've already explained most of it. I'll start a new post.

[MVSeahog]

Ellis,

That's a keeper for the "F2/3" file for sure.

MVS

[ECD]

Ellis...Thanks so much for your in depth reply...I feel that I'm finally starting to get it (re:"F")

Just a quick note...The shoes I posted were full shoes...I find that for whatever reason...live online 8 deck shoes tend to work out to be shorter than in a live casino (even if the online casino itself is in a live casino rather than a studio)

I'd be interested in your thoughts on the reasons(Because even I recognise now that they have a reason for everything they do)...and given the shorter shoes on average...possibly revised targets or do you suggest that we just stick with the "half decade" rule in the third column?

Thanks again Ellis for your patience

Oz