table selection Results of the shoes you choose not to play? | ECD GROUP| May 14, 2013

[Guest]

OK, the shoe again was:

P48212111

B1112144114

P3412311111

Recognize that I can only assume what part of the shoe is missing so I'm assuming the front part is missing and I'm also assuming the missing part is also directing us where to start. That is the problem of taking the shoe out of casino context. But this only effects where I start. So I arbitrarily started at play 3 with:

3) 1 on B - Obvious

4) 1 B - Obvious

5) 1B - Obvious

6) 2B - Obvious

7) 3B So here you might say why go F3 when you already have a 4 and no 2's?

Because I'm going by SS. I'm seeing 4 Ps and no Bs.

8) B4 - Normal F3 bet and I can afford to make it.

9) B2 - Normal U1D2 bet

10) B1 Normal F bet

11) B1 Obvious

12) B1 Obvious

13) B1 Obvious

14) B2 Obvious

15) B3 - I ignored the 3rd bet rule and went with SS because I'm looking at 8 Bs.

16) B1 - Obvious

17) B2 - Obvious

18) B3 - No SS so 3rd bet rule - my 3 won at play 15.

19) B1 - Obvious

20) B2 - Obvious

Recognize that after play 15 I'm no longer seeing a Strong Side so I'm going with the 3rd bet rule at this point.

21) B1 Obvious

22) B1 Obvious

23) B2 Obvious

24) B1 Obvious

25) B2 Obvious

26) B3 3rd bet rule

27) B1 Obvious

28) B2 Obvious

29) B3 Obvious OK, my 3rd bet lost so I change to F2 right at this point for the next run

30) P4 normal F3 bet

31) P2 Normal U1D2 bet

32) P3 Now I switch sides per F2

33) B4 Confirming F2

34) B2 Normal U1D2 bet

35) B1 Obvious

36) B2 Obvious

37) B1 Obvious

38) B2 Obvious But now I change sides because I'm in F2

39) P3 Normal F2

40) P1 Obvious My score is +9 and I'm cruising along in F2

41) P1

42) P1

43) P1

44) P1

45) P2 switch sides now per F2

46) B3

47) B1

OK the rest of the shoe stays F2 and I switch back to P at play 63 and stay there

I score +16 which is right on target for only 3 cols.

I might point out that while this looked like an SS shoe starting out, it quicky went to side to side where the 3rd bet rule rules.

Also, SS shoes generally score higher than side to side because in SS shoes you are generally changing sides less and you tend to catch more runs at their beginning rather than in the middle of them.

Let me also point out that if you try to play OTB4L in this shoe you hit your stop loss already at play 9 at -5 with a 4 bet due. No, you don't change your 4 bet to a 1. You quit at -5. And if you stay in, you'll keep hitting your stop loss.

HOW DO YOU KNOW not to attempt OTB4L?

OTB4L hates 4s and runs following runs. This shoe starts out with 4,8 but you already lost back at 4,5.

How often do shoes start with a 4 ? 1 in 16.

How often do shoes start with a 4,5? 1 in 512

[ECD]

WOW!...Thanks for that P by P Ellis...I will spend some serious time studying your reasoning behind each decision.

BTW: I've noted that there do seem to be a greater percentage of F type shoes online than in real life casinos...for whatever reasons

[Guest]

Ellis...Thanks so much for your in depth reply...I feel that I'm finally starting to get it (re:"F")

Just a quick note...The shoes I posted were full shoes...I find that for whatever reason...live online 8 deck shoes tend to work out to be shorter than in a live casino (even if the online casino itself is in a live casino rather than a studio)

I'd be interested in your thoughts on the reasons(Because even I recognise now that they have a reason for everything they do)...and given the shorter shoes on average...possibly revised targets or do you suggest that we just stick with the "half decade" rule in the third column?

Thanks again Ellis for your patience

Oz

Yes, do both. Change your goal to +15 for U1D2 and use half decade cash Mgt.

I would not be too suspicious of their short shoes. I see an innocent profit motive - Most players, superstitious or whatever, prefer to start at the beginning of a shoe - dumb bastards! The shorter a shoe the shorter time they have to wait. The casino is just being smart.

[Guest]

WOW!...Thanks for that P by P Ellis...I will spend some serious time studying your reasoning behind each decision.

BTW: I've noted that there do seem to be a greater percentage of F type shoes online than in real life casinos...for whatever reasons

Because real casinos have had 35 years to figure the best ways to cheat in Baccarat. But give the internet a little time - they'll figure it out.

Do we care? Well, in a way YES! BECAUSE the more they cheat the better we can beat them!

[Guest]

So what took me so long?

Well it was 5 oclock somewhere!

[ECD]

So what took me so long?

Well it was 5 oclock somewhere!

A man after my own heart:wink:

[Guest]

Recognize that when I say a casino is cheating I'm talking about in our eyes. Anytime they use a shuffle or card prep or shuffle machine setting or card pick up procedure to produce a desired result, WE consider that cheating but they don't at all. They have been doing this for at least 40 years when you include BJ. The casino control boards don't consider it cheating either because the casino followed an accepted procedure. Accepted by the control board. BUT, Control boards assume that 2 shuffles will make 8 decks random. In fact it takes 7 shuffles to make ONE deck close to random and some experts say 25 shuffles to achieve true random. But even if we accepted 7 - 8 decks would require 7X7X7X7X7X7X7X7. They wouldn't finish until next month. But the key word in all this is "desired". Casinos have had years to look at cause and effect relationships in shuffling. It is far more obvious in BJ. And far more provable. Dealers SHOULD get 4 out of 13 first card tens if the cards are random. But they average twice that many. This would be totally impossible with random shuffling. They are producing a desired effect with their shuffling. To me, that is cheating. BUT it is also how we win at BJ - and Bac. Playing full time, I won at BJ every day for 3 years by playing according to the result of the shuffle used. That ought to tell you something. But do we want them to stop cheating? Hell no. BTW, I did this in A.C. right at the same time their most famous card counter, Kenny Uston, was losing his shirt on a daily basis. Kenny went suicidal. And most think he achieved his wish. Yet that is what the BJ gurus and web sites still teach today. Lemmings! Like lemmings over a cliff. But will they listen to me? Hell no. They say I cheat. How the hell can anybody cheat at BJ??? They've got these lemmings totally brainwashed.

[Guest]

I was watching this documentary on TV just a couple days ago about a religious card counting team. Seems like a contradiction in terms! These guys would teach members of their church how to count cards and play basic strategy. Then they would send them out to play with church member invested money. So when the whole team lost, the two team leaders went out to win it all back while on film. They lost $50,000 the first night.

What I strongly suspect was going on here is a giant Ponzi scheme. They were paying off old investors with money from new investors. Some church! God ordained BJ players. Good grief! So, are they all still playing today? Hell no. They all quit. I wonder why? NOT!

[johnnybac]

Ellis, last night at Fallsview Casino, I recorded the following two shoes.

SHOE #1 SHOE #2

B1322312321 P191216

B6311211221 P351111111131

P122313211211 B1181122211

P1111121112 P44

Ellis, would you be so kind and play these shoes for the members of the forum, please?

Kindest Regards, John

[Guest]

Well the first shoe I played OTB4L starting at play 2 in Mode 3, U1D2 exactly per the NOR+ instructions.

You hit your +20 goal already at play 39. But since the shoe is going so perfectly, if you stay in, you finish at +33 with a highest bet of 4, 3 times. Mode 3 holds on straight runs to play 25 but you never get to play Mode 2 as there were no more straight runs longer than 3.

For ZZ runs, Mode 3 holds all the way to play 62 and then holds for the remainder of the shoe. The only trick here is to go back on the ZZ run at play 66. About as perfect a NOR+ shoe as you'll ever see.

The second shoe, if you didn't already know to play F, you soon would. Regardless of whether you start at play 2 or wait until play 5, F2 hits your +20 goal already at play 35. You hit +20 again at play 39, a definite quit point. But if not you keep hitting +20 and finish at +23 with a highest bet of a single 6 at play 45. F2 hits every time until play 42. Then F3 hits every time until play 62 so you finish with F2 if you stay in that long. But I definitely would have quit at play 39 and my highest bet would have been only 3 giving me a huge P.A. of 67%. You can't ask for anything better than that. Both of these shoes are incredibly easy with no question of which system to play - very obvious. These shoes speak highly of Fallsview.

BTW, can you really see the falls from there?

[ECD]

Ellis...Off topic...But another thing I'm not clear on is..." betting strategy when switching systems"...Even allowing for the fact that with NOR+...we switch systems much less often...but there are times when the OR count demands a change.

Assuming that the OR count is indicating a definite switch from say...OTB4L to S40...we are very likely to already be in an " U1D2 progression" where our next bet is a 5 or even more...My question is "Do we just continue the same progression after the switch? (which may only allow 1 or 2 bets before hitting our Stop/Loss)...or do we cut our losses and start a new progression from scratch?

[Guest]

Ellis...Off topic...But another thing I'm not clear on is..." betting strategy when switching systems"...Even allowing for the fact that with NOR+...we switch systems much less often...but there are times when the OR count demands a change.

Assuming that the OR count is indicating a definite switch from say...OTB4L to S40...we are very likely to already be in an " U1D2 progression" where our next bet is a 5 or even more...My question is "Do we just continue the same progression after the switch? (which may only allow 1 or 2 bets before hitting our Stop/Loss)...or do we cut our losses and start a new progression from scratch?

Right, a good topic that we have not discussed before.

There are 3 occassions where we would correctly contemplate switching even though we know that in general switching is bad:

1. You are losing but note that one of the other systems would be winning (this is virtually always the case when you are losing)

2. You are breaking even and note that one of the other two systems would be hitting better.

3. You are winning but note that one of the other systems would be winning better.

First, always draw a line across your card when changing systems. And jot down the system you are going to on that line. This way you can decipher your card better later.

There is not a whole lot we can do about the first case. But the NOR rule about not betting a 2 until we win a 1 should always be applied when we are unsure of which system to play.

When I lose a 123 close to right out of the gate, I nearly always change tables. But if not (maybe there are no other tables or no other open seats) draw a line, change systems and start over at 1 with a fresh start and a new -8 stop loss. Count your initial attempt as a losing shoe. Now you are starting a new shoe - even though it is really a continuation of the same shoe. I often also skip a play or 2 in this case.

But for cases 2 and 3 above, I do it a wholly different way that is a good trick to learn. Once you have noted that one of the other systems would be doing better, DON'T do what our other members always do. Don't switch after a losing bet. Do what I do. Always switch after a Winning bet. This way you are giving the new system the chance of a full progression instead of short changing its chances. Pretty neat, eh?

[kingfisher]

Perhaps this situation happens Ellis - I am at a casino (only game in town) where I cannot make a P/B bet at the same time and am not allowd any free hands. I am playing in M3. I just lost my 3rd bet in a row . Being in M3 I make the next proper bet and lose, Now I am in M2. I now lose this bet (5th losss in a row. Am I now back in M3? And if so do I now have to lose 3 more in a row to revert back to M2? Thanks

[Guest]

Perhaps this situation happens Ellis - I am at a casino (only game in town) where I cannot make a P/B bet at the same time and am not allowd any free hands. I am playing in M3. I just lost my 3rd bet in a row . Being in M3 I make the next proper bet and lose, Now I am in M2. I now lose this bet (5th losss in a row. Am I now back in M3? And if so do I now have to lose 3 more in a row to revert back to M2? Thanks

Ha, well frirst I would ask the bastards what they are going to call this new game they invented and why they refuse to play by the long standing International rules of Baccarat. And if they are taking such obvious liberties how do you know they aren't taking more, less obvious, liberties?

There are 4 bets allowed in Baccarat - B, P, T and no bet. Those are the International rules.

Now, if you are the only player at a table and their rule is that they can't deal until somebody bets (very common), spread to 2 spots and bet the table min on both, B on one spot and P on the other. If they won't let you do that, tell them you are going to a casino that plays Bac by the official international rules. And leave! Or play BJ.

Now to your question: Regardless of which mode you are in, when you lose your 3rd bet of a new progression, you change modes right then and there for the next run. You stay in that mode until you lose your 3rd bet again.

If you happened to be in mode 3 and lost your 3rd bet, what happens on your 4th bet is meaningless as far as Modes are concerned. Let's say you lose your 4th bet (with OTB4L that would mean a 5 iar) and then you win your 5 bet. (a 5,2 so far)Now you go down 2 and start a new prog with a 3 bet. You are now in Mode 2 so if you then lose your 4 you go OTR for 2 bets assuming you win the first. Now you start a new progression, usually with a 1 bet.

However, recognize that can't happen at the beginning of a shoe. First, you should not be betting 2 until you have won a 1 bet. Second, if you win a 1 and then lose a 123, you already lost the shoe at -5 because you can't make a 4 bet within your - 8 stop loss. So you either quit that table or draw a line and start over - but this time with the right system because you certainly were not playing the right system last time.

There was a shoe I posted back there someplace that had all the 3rd bets in red for those not understanding what I mean by 3rd bets. I'm talking about the 3rd bet of a new progression. It is usually a 3 bet but not always when you are betting U1D2.

BTW kingfisher, you are allowed to WIN some bets now and then you know.

[bac-cracker]

Hi Ellis,

I guess you thought it was obvious, but why did you start all bets with Banks, when I would figure you would start out with PP, then lose 3 bets and go on the Bank run on the 8iar? Please clarify anyone?

OK, the shoe again was:

P48212111

B1112144114

P3412311111

Recognize that I can only assume what part of the shoe is missing so I'm assuming the front part is missing and I'm also assuming the missing part is also directing us where to start. That is the problem of taking the shoe out of casino context. But this only effects where I start. So I arbitrarily started at play 3 with:

3) 1 on B - Obvious

4) 1 B - Obvious

5) 1B - Obvious

6) 2B - Obvious

7) 3B So here you might say why go F3 when you already have a 4 and no 2's?

Because I'm going by SS. I'm seeing 4 Ps and no Bs.

8) B4 - Normal F3 bet and I can afford to make it.

9) B2 - Normal U1D2 bet

10) B1 Normal F bet

11) B1 Obvious

12) B1 Obvious

13) B1 Obvious

14) B2 Obvious

15) B3 - I ignored the 3rd bet rule and went with SS because I'm looking at 8 Bs.

16) B1 - Obvious

17) B2 - Obvious

18) B3 - No SS so 3rd bet rule - my 3 won at play 15.

19) B1 - Obvious

20) B2 - Obvious

Recognize that after play 15 I'm no longer seeing a Strong Side so I'm going with the 3rd bet rule at this point.

21) B1 Obvious

22) B1 Obvious

23) B2 Obvious

24) B1 Obvious

25) B2 Obvious

26) B3 3rd bet rule

27) B1 Obvious

28) B2 Obvious

29) B3 Obvious OK, my 3rd bet lost so I change to F2 right at this point for the next run

30) P4 normal F3 bet

31) P2 Normal U1D2 bet

32) P3 Now I switch sides per F2

33) B4 Confirming F2

34) B2 Normal U1D2 bet

35) B1 Obvious

36) B2 Obvious

37) B1 Obvious

38) B2 Obvious But now I change sides because I'm in F2

39) P3 Normal F2

40) P1 Obvious My score is +9 and I'm cruising along in F2

41) P1

42) P1

43) P1

44) P1

45) P2 switch sides now per F2

46) B3

47) B1

OK the rest of the shoe stays F2 and I switch back to P at play 63 and stay there

I score +16 which is right on target for only 3 cols.

I might point out that while this looked like an SS shoe starting out, it quicky went to side to side where the 3rd bet rule rules.

Also, SS shoes generally score higher than side to side because in SS shoes you are generally changing sides less and you tend to catch more runs at their beginning rather than in the middle of them.

Let me also point out that if you try to play OTB4L in this shoe you hit your stop loss already at play 9 at -5 with a 4 bet due. No, you don't change your 4 bet to a 1. You quit at -5. And if you stay in, you'll keep hitting your stop loss.

HOW DO YOU KNOW not to attempt OTB4L?

OTB4L hates 4s and runs following runs. This shoe starts out with 4,8 but you already lost back at 4,5.

How often do shoes start with a 4 ? 1 in 16.

How often do shoes start with a 4,5? 1 in 512

[Guest]

Hi Ellis,

I guess you thought it was obvious, but why did you start all bets with Banks, when I would figure you would start out with PP, then lose 3 bets and go on the Bank run on the 8iar? Please clarify anyone?

Ha, because at play 3 I'm looking at 2 Ps and B is the normal OTB4L play. Unless prior shoes or tote boards say different, I usually start with NOR+ at least until the shoe says otherwise - like this one did.

[bac-cracker]

I have a few questions after charting this out and printing.

I understand 3-4 you bet OTB.

But then

5. B1 won

6. B2 - why is this is a 2 bet

7. B3 - why is this a 3 bet... and I don't understand your explanation.

So here you might say why go F3 when you already have a 4 and no 2's?

Because I'm going by SS. I'm seeing 4 Ps and no Bs.

(at this point you do see 2Bs so was I missing something here)

8. B4 - why is this a 4 bet

Also on here it seems like you switched to F2 for both sides. Should we do this or should we keep a separate mode for player and banker?

When did you switch to F and why not try 7. as OTB still?

8

Hi Ellis,

I guess you thought it was obvious, but why did you start all bets with Banks, when I would figure you would start out with PP, then lose 3 bets and go on the Bank run on the 8iar? Please clarify anyone?