Confirmation and correction

[shereevanest]

So are you saying tracking events is better? If so, I should start learning that? I have the OR count down. It just doesn't seem to be that accurate to me.

[ChiefAurelius]

Hi All,

A quick recap. After taking onboard the advice above, I returned to the casino.

I'm happy to report that in spite of most every single shoe that I observed ALL night displaying Neutral patterns, and in spite of that type shoe being likely to murder me previously, I walked away 16 units up.

It wasn't always easy going, but they all generally followed the rules we've learnt. I watched others get decimated around me, and had to laugh, when the clueless dealer was gossiping with her pit boss about how disappointed she was that the latest Brad Pitt movie was about zombies... she's surrounded by them in her line of work!

Thank you Ellis. Thank you all. It's good to win, even if I do have a lot more learning to go!

Best fortune to you all.

Chief

[Guest]

Hi All,

A quick recap. After taking onboard the advice above, I returned to the casino.

I'm happy to report that in spite of most every single shoe that I observed ALL night displaying Neutral patterns, and in spite of that type shoe being likely to murder me previously, I walked away 16 units up.

It wasn't always easy going, but they all generally followed the rules we've learnt. I watched others get decimated around me, and had to laugh, when the clueless dealer was gossiping with her pit boss about how disappointed she was that the latest Brad Pitt movie was about zombies... she's surrounded by them in her line of work!

Thank you Ellis. Thank you all. It's good to win, even if I do have a lot more learning to go!

Best fortune to you all.

Chief

For everyone:

Your first order of business is to stop the bleeding!

Your second order of business is to break even - stop those losing trips!

Your third order of business is to start winning - break the ice!

Your fourth order of business is to keep winning - every single trip!

Is this possible?

YES!

Why?

Because the casino is trying their very best to beat you - that's their job! And they are brain washed into loving their job.

In so doing they are very successful at beating everyone else even far more than the game odds dictate. They are very proud of that fact.

BUT!

In so doing they leave themselves vulnerable to US!

NOR+, particularly OTB4L and particularly U1D2 is designed to defeat - soundly defeat - the very game they are striving to present, the same game that kills everyone else - super random - not enough straight or ZZ runs - whichever way they are playing - to get a toe hold. To them the whole shoe is garbage.

BUT!

OTB4L THRIVES on GARBAGE!

Yet when the casino trys to present a moving target - which is also their job - and throws streak or chop at us -

WE are just as well prepared for that also!

The idea is to get them coming and going - to leave them no means of escape. An answer for EVERYTHING they can present.

Hence S40 and F, our reserve forces!

So your real first order of business is to:

Stop playing like everyone else - that loses the most!

And!

Start playing OUR way!

When you catch on to that, all your other orders of business start falling into place.

It isn't just knowing Baccarat

It is also knowing casinos

AND!

Knowing WHY the other players lose at an impossible pace.

OUR way is not born of Math. Everyone plays Math. Math loses!

It comes from EXPERIENCE! - from knowing what you are really up against -

From living in the REAL world!

[ECD]

For everyone:

Your first order of business is to stop the bleeding!

Your second order of business is to break even - stop those losing trips!

Your third order of business is to start winning - break the ice!

Your fourth order of business is to keep winning - every single trip!

Is this possible?

YES!

Why?

Because the casino is trying their very best to beat you - that's their job! And they are brain washed into loving their job.

In so doing they are very successful at beating everyone else even far more than the game odds dictate. They are very proud of that fact.

BUT!

In so doing they leave themselves vulnerable to US!

NOR+, particularly OTB4L and particularly U1D2 is designed to defeat - soundly defeat - the very game they are striving to present, the same game that kills everyone else - super random - not enough straight or ZZ runs - whichever way they are playing - to get a toe hold. To them the whole shoe is garbage.

BUT!

OTB4L THRIVES on GARBAGE!

Yet when the casino trys to present a moving target - which is also their job - and throws streak or chop at us -

WE are just as well prepared for that also!

The idea is to get them coming and going - to leave them no means of escape. An answer for EVERYTHING they can present.

Hence S40 and F, our reserve forces!

So your real first order of business is to:

Stop playing like everyone else - that loses the most!

And!

Start playing OUR way!

When you catch on to that, all your other orders of business start falling into place.

It isn't just knowing Baccarat

It is also knowing casinos

AND!

Knowing WHY the other players lose at an impossible pace.

OUR way is not born of Math. Everyone plays Math. Math loses!

It comes from EXPERIENCE! - from knowing what you are really up against -

From living in the REAL world!

Bloody hell Ellis...after reading your motivational post...I feel then urge to kill and eat some hapless casino dealer.

I better calm myself a little before I tackle the casino again...I have a heart condition...LOL

[ChiefAurelius]

Funny enough (well not surprising really), Ellis picked up on the one thing I'd left out because I thought you guys might be bored listening to it... the mental game.

The more I practice and the more I drill down into the live play, the more I become aware of the ability of NOR+ to support the mental decisions and to bolster the belief in your game that is needed to beat the casino.

I remember that wonderful book As a man thinketh...

"Man is made or unmade by himself;

in the armory of thought he forges the weapons by which he destroys himself.

He also fashions the tools with which he builds for himself heavenly mansions of joy and strength and peace...

Of all the beautiful truths pertaining to the soul which have been restored and brought to light in this age, none is more gladdening or fruitful of divine promise and confidence than this - that man is the master of thought, the molder of character, and maker and shaper of condition, environment, and destiny.

As a being of Power, Intelligence, and Love, and the lord of his own thoughts,

man holds the key to every situation,

and contains within himself that transforming and regenerative agency

by which he may make himself what he wills."

To be honest, there were times playing where not only did I know automatically what my next bet had to be, I was so busy precalculating the next bet and how it affected the pattern, I wasn't sure if I was on the hand that just won.

Of course I chastised myself for that, but I will get better with application, as we all know that those dealers may well use that gap in attention to pull a 'swifty'.

Thanks again. It's great to be able to share this journey with such great fellow travellers on the path to the top of the mountain.

Chief

[Guest]

The other side of that same coin is that some days, for whatever reason, we are simply not in condition to play, not in the right frame of mind, not as alert, not as confident. After all, we are all human! We have those "off" days.

The pro has a very, very professional solution. Unlike everyone else, he simply doesn't play. His rule is "Only play in peak condition". Now THAT is true professionalism, true discipline!

When I played BJ full time I had a little test I gave myself before each session. I counted down a deck of cards. If I could do it in less than 13 seconds I played. if not I took a day off, maybe the beach, maybe the Boardwalk maybe the dealer bar - whatever - anything except the tables. Only play when you KNOW you will win - when you feel it in your bones!

Of course, the more you practice, the more often that feeling overtakes you.

[ChiefAurelius]

Aloha all,

Once again I climb the mountain to the oracle, in hopes of choosing a better path!

I tagged on to this thread, as we don't really have a thread for hard shoes.

Anyway, I played a couple of shoes on Saturday night and got spanked on both.

Pardon my cynicism, but I wandered around the casino and saw some very hard shoes. The combination of a bumper Saturday night crowd, very difficult shoes, big cash giveaways constantly being announced over the PA system, and a (what seems to be annual) bump on the (midi) Bac table limits ($100 tables to $150, $150s to $200s, & $200s to $300s), I kinda got the impression that the Casino was sending the lambs to the slaughter (at least were orchestrating a move to fatten up their winter profits).

In spite of my best efforts, I went baaaaing along with the rest of the lamb chops.

Lucky for the discipline that NOR teaches on our stop losses, and I walked away before they brushed me with mint sauce.

However, the second of the two shoes really bugged me. I think it goes to the heart of something that I seem to be not getting (whatever that is).

Here's the shoe:

B 231614111

P 211253114

B 1121211123212

B 31

I jumped in mid shoe and got creamed. But reviewing it later, I thought I misread it and used the wrong mode.

What I've found more frustrating is that I played it again as a practice shoe, and I didn't get so creamed but it's still not pretty.

I certainly am not getting/manouevering between modes well. I seem to be failing to pick the mode, and/or picking the events that signal to change.

Insights/thoughts? I really rather avoid life as a cutlet! (the world don't need no more sheep, for sure & certain...)

Chief

[gman72]

Wow, that was a tough shoe Chief. I tried several different ways to attack it using an U1D2 progression, starting play 2 with OTBLM3 didn't get anywhere, I stopped out before the end of 1st col. Tried switching to S40 after assuming I'd watch a few more plays and around play 26 started S40M2 and got to +12 by end of shoe, but not sure if I'd have done that in live play. Tried assuming I didn't jump in till watching the 1st col play out and starting OTBLM3 at top of 2nd col, but got stopped out after about 12 plays in. Tried same assumption but going F3 after watching Players side go 14/6 in 1st col, but got stopped out before end of column. One method did work but was clearly chosen because I could see the whole shoe. Started the shoe at play 2 playing F3 betting the player SS. This ended the shoe +22 and I never went negative except the very first play. Obviously never would have started this way unless prior shoe(s) were biased SS to player. Anyway, that's what I found playing out the shoe, curious what other found playing it.

[ECD]

Here's the shoe:

B 231614111

P 211253114

B 1121211123212

B 31

Chief

I would typically look for four events before starting an unknown shoe. No magic to that number of events -- it has just worked pretty good for me. So in this shoe I would see the 2,3,1 start, and after the fourth circle of the 6iar, I would start F (SS player). I would not wait for the completion of that fourth event as once it went to 4iar it was the longest streak it what was starting to look like a streak, or SS shoe.

If you play F3 U1D2 to the end, you get +15 units. In real life I would not have gotten that far. Things move along VERY smoothly and reach +14 at hand #31. At that point I would use half-decade cash management to put a trailing stop on what is already a highly successful shoe. So I would exit the shoe at hand #33 at +11 units. My best success comes when capitalizing on the stong bias in a shoe and letting the trailing stop decide when to take profits.

[ECD]

I would typically look for four events before starting an unknown shoe. No magic to that number of events -- it has just worked pretty good for me. So in this shoe I would see the 2,3,1 start, and after the fourth circle of the 6iar, I would start F (SS player). I would not wait for the completion of that fourth event as once it went to 4iar it was the longest streak it what was starting to look like a streak, or SS shoe.

If you play F3 U1D2 to the end, you get +15 units. In real life I would not have gotten that far. Things move along VERY smoothly and reach +14 at hand #31. At that point I would use half-decade cash management to put a trailing stop on what is already a highly successful shoe. So I would exit the shoe at hand #33 at +11 units. My best success comes when capitalizing on the stong bias in a shoe and letting the trailing stop decide when to take profits.

I must be even more conservative than you LOL

I would have ruled out OTB4L and S40 pretty early which only leaves F

I would have been thinking SS as well but the sticking point for me would be the first 2iar Banker on the opposite side to the SS...I simply do not know how long that run was...It could be 2...or it could be 10...I'm only guessing.

If I had to play...I too would have played SS but not as early as you

Chief says that he entered mid shoe...so I guess that makes a big difference...If I'm looking at that shoe on the Tote after play 25 I'd be pretty wary of starting out with F after a ZZ of 5 ...2iar followed by a ZZ of 4

I'd probably look for another table...or make my way to the bar.

Only prob there is that you are up 11 units...and I am down a bar tab...You win...LOL

[gman72]

I would typically look for four events before starting an unknown shoe. No magic to that number of events -- it has just worked pretty good for me. So in this shoe I would see the 2,3,1 start, and after the fourth circle of the 6iar, I would start F (SS player). I would not wait for the completion of that fourth event as once it went to 4iar it was the longest streak it what was starting to look like a streak, or SS shoe.

If you play F3 U1D2 to the end, you get +15 units. In real life I would not have gotten that far. Things move along VERY smoothly and reach +14 at hand #31. At that point I would use half-decade cash management to put a trailing stop on what is already a highly successful shoe. So I would exit the shoe at hand #33 at +11 units. My best success comes when capitalizing on the stong bias in a shoe and letting the trailing stop decide when to take profits.

I like your approach on watching the first four events. I may go back and try that on some sample shoes and see if I could have found a better method and/or mode to start a shoe.

I followed your approach on this shoe and was easily able to replicate your results, but my question is about switching to M2. At play #34 you lose your 3rd bet in M3, switch sides and lose the 4B so go back to the other side and lose the 5P but then win the P6,4,2,1 ending col 2 at +12. Here's where the problems start, after play #35 shouldn't you be in M2 and if so when playing out the 3rd col, you would have to switch sides at #45 and that's when everything goes downhill quick. Did I miss something here?

[Guest]

I like your approach on watching the first four events. I may go back and try that on some sample shoes and see if I could have found a better method and/or mode to start a shoe.

I followed your approach on this shoe and was easily able to replicate your results, but my question is about switching to M2. At play #34 you lose your 3rd bet in M3, switch sides and lose the 4B so go back to the other side and lose the 5P but then win the P6,4,2,1 ending col 2 at +12. Here's where the problems start, after play #35 shouldn't you be in M2 and if so when playing out the 3rd col, you would have to switch sides at #45 and that's when everything goes downhill quick. Did I miss something here?[ATTACH]2519[/ATTACH]

Good catch gman! However, thus far in the shoe you have two 2s on the weak side and only one 3. This is telling you, you should probably stay in Mode 3.

I think the bigger question is the 4 bet at play 35. So far you've got a commissionless shoe going and 12 Banks vs 22 Players. In a shoe that strong sided, I often go ahead and make my 4 bet on the strong side, sort of an F4. That would have given me my +20 in the third col. - Tricks of the trade.

Waiting 4 events in new preshuffled cards is probably a good idea - or anytime you have no idea of the prior shoes.

[ChiefAurelius]

Thanks guys.

Your approaches are all helpful, and inspire me to pick up my torpedoed confidence and learn to play at your level.

Gman, I did as you did, and tried it multiple ways without cracking the code.

Waytofast, I'm very grateful for the tips on the four events. That makes a lot of sense by way of confirmation. I'm going to try it on my practice shoes.

A question on your commentary, what's a trailing loss? Is that incrementing your stop loss as you raise your win rate? So, if for example your stop loss is -5, then when you hit +10, your trailing stop loss is a track back to +5? Is that the essence of "half-decade cash management"?

Oz, I'll see you at the bar til I get better at this!

Thanks all.

Best of fortune to you.

Chief

[ChiefAurelius]

Good catch gman! However, thus far in the shoe you have two 2s on the weak side and only one 3. This is telling you, you should probably stay in Mode 3.

I think the bigger question is the 4 bet at play 35. So far you've got a commissionless shoe going and 12 Banks vs 22 Players. In a shoe that strong sided, I often go ahead and make my 4 bet on the strong side, sort of an F4. That would have given me my +20 in the third col. - Tricks of the trade.

Waiting 4 events in new preshuffled cards is probably a good idea - or anytime you have no idea of the prior shoes.

Thanks Ellis.

I can confirm that there's no history discernible at Sydney Casino.

I did see a hell of a lot of these type "designer" shoes that night though. Believe it or not this looked like the most attractive of a bunch of very bad shoes.

Ah well, back to the study!

Cheers

Chief

[ECD]

I followed your approach on this shoe and was easily able to replicate your results, but my question is about switching to M2. At play #34 you lose your 3rd bet in M3, switch sides and lose the 4B so go back to the other side and lose the 5P but then win the P6,4,2,1 ending col 2 at +12. Here's where the problems start, after play #35 shouldn't you be in M2 and if so when playing out the 3rd col, you would have to switch sides at #45 and that's when everything goes downhill quick. Did I miss something here?

I would not have switched to M2 after just one 3iar is such a strong sided shoe. For me, I need more evidence from the shoe that it is moving away from what has been a very strong bias. However, as I said, I never would have been in this shoe at play #45. I also never would have made the 6 unit bet when at -1, or even the 5 unit bet when at +4, nor would I have made any bet that could take me negative after being up 14 units. I played out the rest of the shoe after my stop at play #33 just to illustrate F with U1D2. I play large units and almost never make a 5 or more unit bet, and only rarely a 4 unit bet. I would much rather wait for the loosing event to end and then reevaluate the shoe.

[shereevanest]

So how many ahead does one side have to get before you consider it the ss?

[ECD]

A question on your commentary, what's a trailing loss? Is that incrementing your stop loss as you raise your win rate? So, if for example your stop loss is -5, then when you hit +10, your trailing stop loss is a track back to +5? Is that the essence of "half-decade cash management"?

I think you got it. Ellis teaches half decade cash management, especially useful late in the shoe. I will deploy it earlier when a shoe is going real well, as most strong bias' where I play do not last through the whole shoe. The basic principal is that when you, for example, get above +15 units, then do not make a bet to take you below 15. When you get above 20, the stop goes to 15. The half decade refers to the max of 5 unit drawdown.

This is similar to using a trailing stop in trading, where the stop moves up as the security price moves up. You let the market decide when to take you out of the position. Keeps you from selling winners too early, as no one can predict the market top. Same in bac -- we want the shoe to tell us when to get out and not try to guess when things are going to turn.

[Guest]

I think you got it. Ellis teaches half decade cash management, especially useful late in the shoe. I will deploy it earlier when a shoe is going real well, as most strong bias' where I play do not last through the whole shoe. The basic principal is that when you, for example, get above +15 units, then do not make a bet to take you below 15. When you get above 20, the stop goes to 15. The half decade refers to the max of 5 unit drawdown.

This is similar to using a trailing stop in trading, where the stop moves up as the security price moves up. You let the market decide when to take you out of the position. Keeps you from selling winners too early, as no one can predict the market top. Same in bac -- we want the shoe to tell us when to get out and not try to guess when things are going to turn.

I have never studied trading at all. But way2fast is yet another trader who notes the similarity of trading principles to NOR principles.

Ha, Mathematicians say that no Cash Mgt works but I note that Mathematicians make horrible Bac players. I suspect they can't trade worth beans either.

[Guest]

Sorry, I lost a couple days due to a bad reaction to the meds they injected for an abscess. Then I started at the top of the list rather than the bottom - just for variety. So if I didn't get to you yet, I probably will.

[Guest]

So how many ahead does one side have to get before you consider it the ss?

2 to 1 or better or close to it. I have no idea of what causes this and neither do the casinos or they would put a stop to it. Even more freaky is its usually Player even though Bank has the advantage. So its a case of playing what we see W/O asking why we are seeing it. But I've seen entire shoes with only 5 or 6 Banks. This is WAY outside the random envelope.

Suppose somebody was flipping a coin and you only won 5 times out of 72. Wouldn't you get a little suspicious of the flipper???

In this case you won 11 times out of 34 not counting the first play of the shoe. That is less than 1/3rd! in supposedly a 50/50 contest. I think I'd be saying: "Hey buddy, how about I flip for a while." Yet we often see the B/P disparity go much higher! And then, it so often favors Player! How can this be? Well it is not for us to question why. We just play what we see.

I remember in the Army I flipped with my buddy to see which of us would go on Medical duty. I won 8 times in a row. He never said a word but the next morning I somehow woke up underneath a 90MM tank! My tent was just gone! You wake up fast when one of those suckers starts up! You think it's the end of the world. I volunteered for medical duty that day!

[Guest]

I would not have switched to M2 after just one 3iar is such a strong sided shoe. For me, I need more evidence from the shoe that it is moving away from what has been a very strong bias. However, as I said, I never would have been in this shoe at play #45. I also never would have made the 6 unit bet when at -1, or even the 5 unit bet when at +4, nor would I have made any bet that could take me negative after being up 14 units. I played out the rest of the shoe after my stop at play #33 just to illustrate F with U1D2. I play large units and almost never make a 5 or more unit bet, and only rarely a 4 unit bet. I would much rather wait for the loosing event to end and then reevaluate the shoe.

Yes, an excellent answer! way2fast is going places!

[Guest]

Thanks Ellis.

I can confirm that there's no history discernible at Sydney Casino.

I did see a hell of a lot of these type "designer" shoes that night though. Believe it or not this looked like the most attractive of a bunch of very bad shoes.

Ah well, back to the study!

Cheers

Chief

I'm always suspicious when I see these impossible designer type shoes. It's a dead givaway if they don't offer a cut. But you can't help but realize that these machines have card readers and they know which slot they put which card in. If these machines can put cards back in boxed card order they can produce any order they want and designer shoes present a huge temptation to casinos. About all you can do is try to get inside the head of the designer. What would you do next if YOU designed the shoe? Then flat bet and quit when you are ahead.

Fortunately here there are a lot of casinos competing for players so we don't get a lot of that - most places. But we see it here too. I avoid such casinos as well as preshuffled cards whenever possible.

[ChiefAurelius]

I'm always suspicious when I see these impossible designer type shoes. It's a dead givaway if they don't offer a cut. But you can't help but realize that these machines have card readers and they know which slot they put which card in. If these machines can put cards back in boxed card order they can produce any order they want and designer shoes present a huge temptation to casinos. About all you can do is try to get inside the head of the designer. What would you do next if YOU designed the shoe? Then flat bet and quit when you are ahead.

Fortunately here there are a lot of casinos competing for players so we don't get a lot of that - most places. But we see it here too. I avoid such casinos as well as preshuffled cards whenever possible.

It's a strange situation. Australia is roughly three quarters of the continental United States of America (or more?), reported to be the sixth largest nation on earth. Yet there are only six states and two territories. There's roughly one casino for each of these divisions. Can anyone say crony-stacked monopoly?

There's been a recent kerfuffle with what seems like Australia's sole surviving entrepreneur getting approval for a second casino in Sydney in years to come. It's claimed that he will pitch to "Asian high rollers". Will those high rollers be prepared to travel to Australia for 'designer shoes'? Who knows.

One of the territory casinos has ONE bac table.

For players in Sydney, it's one casino take it or leave it.

[ECD]

I did see a hell of a lot of these type "designer" shoes that night though. Believe it or not this looked like the most attractive of a bunch of very bad shoes.

Hi Chief,

When I played the shoe you refer to as a "designer" shoe, I achieved a win of 11 units playing just 23 hands. This was done with a 65% win rate (15 of 23 bets won), and a P.A. of 35%. I'm sure Ellis would call that a pretty good result.

With all due respect, I think you will become a better player by not dismissing your loosing shoes as "designer" or such other excuse. We all play shoes wrong from time to time, but the successful players I hang out with all study those losses and learn from them instead of dismissing them. I don't know how you characterize this shoe in a bunch of very bad shoes. This is a SUPERB shoe. From the very start it showed a strong F SS bias. NOR thrives on strong bias' and NOR players MUST learn how to recognize and take advantage of those biases, and then get out when it changes. If this is a "designer" shoe, then bring them on. I would love to have such easy shoes every time.

All the best,

Way2fast

[ChiefAurelius]

Hi Chief,

When I played the shoe you refer to as a "designer" shoe, I achieved a win of 11 units playing just 23 hands. This was done with a 65% win rate (15 of 23 bets won), and a P.A. of 35%. I'm sure Ellis would call that a pretty good result.

With all due respect, I think you will become a better player by not dismissing your loosing shoes as "designer" or such other excuse. We all play shoes wrong from time to time, but the successful players I hang out with all study those losses and learn from them instead of dismissing them. I don't know how you characterize this shoe in a bunch of very bad shoes. This is a SUPERB shoe. From the very start it showed a strong F SS bias. NOR thrives on strong bias' and NOR players MUST learn how to recognize and take advantage of those biases, and then get out when it changes. If this is a "designer" shoe, then bring them on. I would love to have such easy shoes every time.

All the best,

Way2fast

Hi Way2fast,

I appreciate your point.

Please don't misunderstand me, I'm not having a moan - although I won't be chairman of the "I trust casinos because they're good guys" fan club anytime soon.

The reason I say "designer shoes" is because all of the tote boards that I looked at that night - with only one exception out of twenty tables - seemed to emulate this shoe.

It may be that I'm a beginner and saw three distinct directions in the shoe, but two other players on this forum who seem to be fairly sharp, were equally deterred by it. They didn't see it as superb until they had the advantage of your superior knowledge.

So, forgive my inexperience and I'm deeply grateful for you imparting your profoundly deeper understanding so that I can benefit.

You are telling the gospel truth when you say that we must learn to recognise all biases (including the ones that beat us). But please don't think for a second I was happy to dismiss it because it beat me.

Chief