Confirmation and correction

[derkyft]

This thread has been really helpful. Thank you Chief for actively asking questions Benefits us all

I haven't been playing for the past few weeks due to the buildup of work after coming back from a 3 week holiday, but after reading this, I'm motivated to hit the Casino tonight!

[ChiefAurelius]

This thread has been really helpful. Thank you Chief for actively asking questions Benefits us all

I haven't been playing for the past few weeks due to the buildup of work after coming back from a 3 week holiday, but after reading this, I'm motivated to hit the Casino tonight!

Give 'em hell derkyft!

[derkyft]

Just copied the results onto one of my practice scorecards.

I only had an hour and a half to bum in the Casino, found a table that looked alright, sat down and off we went..

Started with S40M2 but wasn't too comfortable with that and then I noticed that there was a SS so I just dove for F2 (16 Players vs 8 Banks and seeing that there was one 3IAR on the weak side, I chose F2)

At play 48 I focused on the SS and it played out in my favour. Managed to hit 29 times out of 41 bets with only 3 bet occurring once. Wish these came more often aye....

Anyways, went to see the GF with +25 units. I do hate playing with a time limit in my head though. argh

[gman72]

Hey derkyft,

Nice hit and run, but...

I think you made a mistake starting at play #48. I emphasize "I think", because I'm still new at this, but my understanding of F is that when you switch sides based on what mode you're in, you stay on that new side until you lose a bet and then switch back to the other side. That being said it would appear to me that you would have stayed on the banker side at play #48 with a 1 bet (following your U1D1 progression) and then your bets starting at play #49 would have gone 1B 2B 3P which all lost putting you in mode 3 now and then the 4B 5B 6B would have all lost as well so at the end of pay #54 you would be at -5 units. Now granted your next five bets would all be winners now of 7B 6B 5B 4B 3B ending the shoe at +20. But would you have gotten that far with the stop-loss limits? Ha, don't listen to me on that, I'm still not doing a good job following those rules yet.

If I got this all wrong, just ignore what I've just posted.

[gman72]

my understanding of F is that when you switch sides based on what mode you're in, you stay on that new side until you lose a bet and then switch back to the other side.

I believe what I meant was when M2 switches you to the other side OTR and you win your first and second bet on your M2 OTR you will now stay on that side. You only switch right back if you lose either your first or second bet OTR in M2 or your one OTR bet if in M3. I hope that is more clear about how I understand F play. If I've still got this wrong, I'm sure my error will be pointed out.

Also, I hope my last post did not seem critical, it was definitely not meant that way. Reviewing other's play is always helpful in understanding and learning the systems.

[derkyft]

Hey gman,

Thanks for your reply. Your observation skills are quite remarkable.

At play 48 I finished the two mode bets and I'm up to 15 units. After mode bets I always like to re-think of what system I should be using. I was a bit slow on play 24 to realise that it shouldve been F since the SS was right in my face.

The reason why I like to rethink of the strategy is because I'm not a big fan of mode bets. It means that I've lost two or three bets which should have hit.. (Thats just what I think though) so At play 48, after the mode bets were complete, I took it like I just sat down at the table, saw a strong side and started playing F2 again on P side. (It's how I would've played if I saw the tote board at that time)

As for the stop loss, I would have pulled out if I reached +10 any point past play 48

I think you're right on how you should play F though, I'm still learning too so you're comments are appreciated. Seems like you're ripping up the casinos in your part of the world

Cheers!

[Guest]

Right, SS must take precedence over everything no matter what we are doing when we see it. It often leads to hitting a long run or simply taking advantage of a momentary strong side.

Think of modes as a necessary evil. Nobody is a fan of losing 2 bets but it is inevitable. Modes is the best way to get back on track EXCEPT when an SS overrules. Nothing works every time so we must think in terms of what works most often.

Some shoes EVERYTHING works but other shoes NOTHING works. The skill then is to get out early. Some days at some casinos at some times, the casino really has it together and the skill is getting out with small wins rather than fighting City Hall like the amateurs do. Some days +3 or 4 units takes more skill than +20 on other days.

We will get our fair share of good shoes - but only if we live to play another day. Some days the trick is to get out ahead.

[Guest]

I believe what I meant was when M2 switches you to the other side OTR and you win your first and second bet on your M2 OTR you will now stay on that side. You only switch right back if you lose either your first or second bet OTR in M2 or your one OTR bet if in M3. I hope that is more clear about how I understand F play. If I've still got this wrong, I'm sure my error will be pointed out.

Also, I hope my last post did not seem critical, it was definitely not meant that way. Reviewing other's play is always helpful in understanding and learning the systems.

F is the simplest of the 3 NOR systems:

F2 means "Follow the 2" - We play on the side with the most recent 2 - which in turn means we switch to the other side when it produces a 2. We hope the 2 is the start of a longer run.

F3 means Follow the 3.

There is only ONE deviation. IF we switch to the other side and lose the first bet, we switch right back - ONCE - at least until this proves wrong most of the time in the shoe we are playing.

Mathematically it makes no difference whether we switch right back or not. Mathematically it is 50/50. But we are often playing F to take advantage of a strong side. So we tested the switch back rule over hundreds of shoes. Those tests confirmed that the switch back rule works more often than it doesn't, in spite of math.

It is rare but sometimes we get what we call "runs following runs". We see runs on both sides. With such shoes the switchback rule tends to backfire. So, IF it proves wrong for the shoe at hand, we simply abandon it and play straight F2 or F3 and ignore a first losing bet on the other side. But remember, this is rare!

We decide between F2 and F3 this way:

F2 hates 2s on the other side but likes 3 or mores.

Likewise, F3 likes 2s but hates 3s on the other side.

So the question is: What are we seeing on the other side? 2s = F3. 3s = F2.

Hopefully we are seeing neither one on the other side. Hopefully we are seeing sporadic 1's on the other side.

That usually makes for an easy +20 or +30 if you upgrade to a 345 progression.

F LOVES sporadic 1's. Sporadic 1's means SS.

We particularly like the Sporadic 1's to be on the Bank side so we can bet straight Player which makes for no commission.

And strangely, Sporadic 1's are usually on the Bank side which completely defies Math. Don't ask me why. I have no idea. Neither do the casinos. Just take the money!

Tricks of the trade: In the Sporadic 1's, you are usually better off with F3 because you usually get a 2 or two mixed in with the Sporadic 1's. F3 likes that. F2 doesn't.

Tricks of the trade 2: What if you are on Player for most of a shoe and Bank gets its first 3iar??? I usually stay on P and play an F4. It usually works.

Tricks of the trade 3: What if you are getting all Sporadic 2s on the other side. (like 4232522242) Fine! Stick to F3 but change your prog from 123 to 112 or even 113. You'll be glad you did!

[Guest]

BTW, we need to get a Vegas trip report out of Norm! Last I saw he was up, playing the beautiful MGM high stakes parlor! I joined him there for a couple shoes and did +17. But he was still playing at my bed time.

Edited August 19, 2013 by Guest

[gman72]

BTW, we need to get a Vegas trip report out of Norm! Last I saw he was up, playing the beautiful MGM high stakes parlor! I joined him there for a couple shoes and did +17. But he was still playing at my bed time.

WOW! Now that's a trip report I would really like to read.

Any other reports about this past weekend's seminar and how it went would be great to read as well. Hope it all went well. I can't wait till the next one, I'm going to do everything I can to make it. I hope it's soon.

Edited August 19, 2013 by Keith Smith

[gman72]

Oh, also forgot to say, thanks Ellis for that post #58 below. That's another great explanation of the F system. I've already printed it out and included in my binder.

[ChiefAurelius]

Likewise! The modes are the area that I'm really falling down in, and I don't understand the reason for my mental block. I've printed and will be re-reading it all weekend.

I'm also making it a goal to fly over and attend the next seminar. Time to make my skills pay their keep!

Thanks Ellis. Thanks Gman. Thanks Derkyft.

Cheers

Chief

[Guest]

WOW! Now that's a trip report I would really like to read.

Any other reports about this past weekend's seminar and how it went would be great to read as well. Hope it all went well. I can't wait till the next one, I'm going to do everything I can to make it. I hope it's soon.

Well, there is not a lot to report. The seminar itself went fine and we were able to play for free afterward right at the Dealer School. A high point was when the Dealer School owner confirmed that Roulette croupiers are taught how to shoot for the 0,00, among other things. This was confirmed by Dennis Foley who lived with croupiers and by our in house dealer, Sheree, who BTW was good enough to come with other members and pick me up when I got stranded at Harrah's - a horible place to play. Members need not look askance at me whenever I get on the subject of casino cheating. Not all casinos, perhaps, but certainly most. But do not be alarmed by this because NOR as well as NBJ (BJ), as well as the Roulette approach I taught, are all based on casino cheating.

The Bac games were horrible everywhere except the high stakes parlor, called the Mansion, at MGM. Those were refreshingly normal shoes and easy for NOR. I did not play any U1D2 but, like Norm, stuck to basic NOR's 123 prog. I wish I had played U1D2 at MGM but by that time I lacked sufficient confidence in anything more than +10 which seems to be the name of the game in Vegas these days. Maybe we should have the next seminar in Tunica, MS or Atlantic City ??? The same folks have another dealer school in Tunica, which is convenient.

With Norm, it is all relative. We all start out with reds, then work our bankroll up to greens, then blacks, then perhaps $1000 units. Norm has worked his way up to $5,000 units! Remember, the cards do not know the color of your chips. It is all relative!

I seem to confirming a pattern here - that the high stakes parlors present the best games, both for Bac and BJ. I call these "straight up" games - no tomfoolery - refreshing. It has been that way for 30 years but even more so, lately.

I had scheduled my last night there, Tues, for Benions high stakes BJ, another straight up game, but unfortunately I came up lame Tues night and couldn't go anywhere. I was fine, BTW, by Wed morning, just in time to go home. Getting too old for this I guess.

[Guest]

Likewise! The modes are the area that I'm really falling down in, and I don't understand the reason for my mental block. I've printed and will be re-reading it all weekend.

I'm also making it a goal to fly over and attend the next seminar. Time to make my skills pay their keep!

Thanks Ellis. Thanks Gman. Thanks Derkyft.

Cheers

Chief

There is no mystery here - modes are exactly the same for all 3 NOR systems:

S40 normally bets Opposites

F normally bets Repeats

OTB4L normally bets a combination of opposites and repeats.

All 3 normal betting routines lose to runs. So we can't sit there betting against runs - that would be foolish.

No matter the system we are playing, each shoe has its ideal time to go ON runs - a necessary evil.

Mode 2 goes ON runs after 2 losing bets. That is our streak mode.

Mode 3 goes on runs after 3 losing bets. That is our chop mode.

Next comes the question of when to get off of runs and back to our system's normal betting routine???

Since it got ON runs earliest, mode 2 normally stays on runs for 2 bets while Mode 3 normally stays for just ONE bet until this proves wrong in the shoe at hand.

Since we see so many long runs in Vegas, those who play there say it is best to stay on all runs until you lose - then back to the normal betting routine.

I agree with this for Vegas play but nowhere else, at least until our normal time of getting off runs proves wrong where we are playing on a given day.

That is really all there is to modes except ONE rare thing.

WHEN we find that we are habitually in the wrong mode in a given shoe, it is best to stay in ONE mode - Mode 2 if the shoe favors streak (a minus OR count) and Mode 3 if the shoe favors chop (a plus OR count)

We try to simplify this even further by saying: If you lose your 3rd bet, regardless which side you bet or which mode you were in, you are in the WRONG mode so change modes for the next run.

Likewise, if you win your 3rd bet, you are in the best mode for the next run.

Look, this is not a 160 IQ thing. It is more like 4th grade observation. I think some of you guys are somehow making it harder than it actually is. Put your 3rd bets in red if that helps.

Your 3rd bet is the 3rd bet from the start of a new progression. If you are betting a 123 prog, it is always your 3 bet. BUT, if you are betting U1D2 it might not be your 3 bet but it is ALWAYS the 3rd bet after any win (not counting OTR bets). Get it?

F is the simplest:

Mode 2 attempts the other side after 2 losing bets. (F2) - Follow the freaking 2.

Mode 3 attempts the other side after 3 losing bets (F3) - Follow the 3.

And if you lose the first bet on the new side, switch back but only switch back ONCE to avoid losing to a ZZ. Just as if you lose an OTR bet, go back to your normal betting routine.

Next, we could have a classs in tieing your shoes.

BTW, did you know that Einstein couldn't tie his shoes?

[gman72]

Maybe we should have the next seminar in Tunica, MS or Atlantic City ??? The same folks have another dealer school in Tunica, which is convenient.

Tunica MS sounds good to me. It's been a lot of years since I've been there. Stumbled on it by accident over 15 years ago during a road trip. Would love to see how it's changed since then. If I remember right, there were only three casinos there at the time.

[ChiefAurelius]

Hey guys,

Could I trouble some of the wiser heads (seems to be everyone but me at the moment!) to have a look at this shoe please?

P 124411223

B 313125122

B 15231512

P 1221215

I won't let you know how I went on it, but suffice to say it wasn't pretty.

Thanks in advance

Chief

BTW Einstein also did not know his own phone number. When rousted about it by a grad student, he replied in full force, "Why would I clog up my brain with information that I can easily find in the phone book?"

A habit apparently also shared by Henry Ford.

[ChiefAurelius]

Next, we could have a classs in tieing your shoes.

Sorry Ellis, I didn't mean to trouble. I know it's simple, but I don't know why I'm not getting it.

Apologies anyway.

Chief

[Guest]

Sorry Ellis, I didn't mean to trouble. I know it's simple, but I don't know why I'm not getting it.

Apologies anyway.

Chief

Why you weren't getting it is unimportant. The question is are you getting it NOW - you and gman and All NOR students. Did my short explanation below do the trick? If not, I'll find a different way to explain it.

Sure, we have U1D2 which can power its way through offending runs. True BUT we can give U1D2 a lot of help by always being in the best mode for the shoe at hand. No, modes don't always work. NOTHING always works. That is exactly what our stop loss is for. But modes USUALLY work and in Baccarat, "USUALLY" is what counts. If we are usually right, we are far better off than the 99.9% of other players.

Maybe I should take a different approach:

What are we trying to accomplish with modes?

Recognize that the normal betting routines of all 3 NOR systems can lose to one thing and one thing only - runs the wrong length.

S40: Since S40 bets opposites it can only lose to Straight runs. Its normal betting routine already wins every bet in a ZZ run. Likewise, its normal betting routine of pure Opposites also beats TT runs (BB PP BB PP) as well as 21212 runs. BUT S40 normally bets totally AGAINST straight runs. Straight runs is the ONLY thing S40 can lose to. The worst thing that can happen is when we go OTR On The Run just in time for the run to end so that we lose our OTR attempt. With basic NOR's 123 4 prog, a losing initial OTR bet is usually game over. With NOR+'s U1D2 prog we are merely wounded.

Therefore, the job of modes is to insure that we lose initial OTR bets as seldom as possible.

Modes allows us to pick the run length we want to lose to. With S40 Modes allows us to pick between losing to 3s or losing to 4s. WHICH one do we pick??? Whichever one is occurring LEAST in the shoe at hand. But we don't simply pick one or the other. We pick the one that is occurring LEAST in the shoe at hand. And THAT is the job of The 3rd Bet Rule.

The 3rd Bet Rule is a thing of beauty. It is the very guts of NOR. No matter how we started a shoe or when we decided to go OTR or no matter how we decided, whether we were wrong or right, the 3rd bet rule ALWAYS points us in the right direction for the shoe at hand, It separates the winners from the losers. It gives us SAP's opinion. And with SAP, majority rules. If the shoe has more 3s than 4s, the 3rd bet rule automatically points to M3. If the shoe has more 4s than 3s, the 3rd bet rule automatically points to M2. It saves us from counting 3s vs 4s which would do the exact same thing.

Now, in some shoes 3s are equal to 4s. In this case SAP has no opinion. So we stay in one mode or the other, M2 if the OR count is negative and M3 if the OR count is positive. This way we win our initial OTR bets HALF the time and with U1D2 that is all that is necessary to win the shoe - be right half the time. THAT is the job of U1D2 - to make us win the shoe even though we are only right half the time or better. Fortunately the game odds dictate that we will be right half the time.

OTB4L: It is the same with OTB4L except now we are looking at 4s vs 5s. They occur half as often BUT we are now looking at BOTH straight and ZZ runs because we no longer automatically beat ZZ runs. Therefore the problem ends up occurring at the SAME total frequency as S40. So now we have to count both straight and ZZ run lengths separately. But, the 3rd bet rule again does all that automatically for us. Again, if we win the 3rd bet we are in the right mode for that run type. If we lose the 3rd bet, we are in the wrong mode. We merely have to look at straight and ZZ runs separately. Half the time we will be in one mode for straights and the other mode for ZZs and half the time we will be in the same mode for both. Either way, the 3rd bet rule paves the way for us as long as we look at straights and ZZs separately - THAT is what makes OTB4L our hardest system to play.

F: F is the same except now we are only interested in the Straight run lengths on the weak side because runs on the Strong Side always help us no matter their length. And with F we are looking at 2s vs 3s. Mostly 2s on the weak side we play M3. Mostly 3s on the weak side we play M2. Either way, the 3rd bet rule again points us in the right direction.

So it is the job of the 3rd bet rule to make our mode selection right at least half the time. Because that is all that is necessary for U1D2 to win the shoe.

So, it this starting to make more sense now?

The right system wins most of our 1 and 2 bets.

The right mode wins most of our 3 bets.

Some shoes either Mode wins. But MOST shoes we have to be in the right mode at least half the time. To accomplish this we can either count the right events or depend on the 3rd bet rule. But we depend on the 3rd bet rule because we can't depend on ourselves to count the right events correctly in the heat of battle. But we always know whether we won or lost our 3rd bet - don't we. THAT is the beauty of it.

[Guest]

If, at this point, if you have given NOR - NOR+ a ligitimate shot but you are still totally lost to the point of giving up, let me recommend a far simpler approach that should appeal to you. We'll call it The Party System because it is so simple you can usually party while you are playing it and still get it right - as long as you keep from falling out of your chair. I'll start a new thread I'll call The Party System and put it in the Roulette forum.

This BTW might be the best way to play preshuffled designer shoes at some of the very worst casinos. There were a couple shoes at Vegas last week I wish I had played this. But it usually defeats whatever a designer can come up with, no matter how ridiculous.

BTW, you STILL have to know the rules of Baccarat because if you don't it is just a matter of time before you get cheated. I'll bet all of you who have played this game much, including myself, have been cheated W/O you being none the wiser. Hey, it is just what casinos do. It is in their nature.

However, The Party system will give you a good shot even in the most ridiculous of designer shoes.

And, it can be played on Roulette if low stakes is your main concern. Just instead of heading your card B vs P, make your heading Red vs Black or Odd vs Even or High vs Low or all 3 at the same time. (Roulette gives you plenty of time.)

Playing Roulette, recognize that you can always toss out your worst card and just play the best two.

Also recognize that when playing multiple cards you can trade bets. Why make you highest bets on your worst card??? Trade it with the 1 bet on your best card.

Also with Roulette cover your high bets by making a 1/18 th bet on the line between the 0, 00. For instance, if all your bets on all 3 cards total about 15 - 21, also bet 1 unit on the 0,00. But don't always do that. If you always bet on the 0 00 the dealer will seldom hit it. Yes, they cheat in Roulette too so use their cheating against them. Also never bet before the dealer spins.

[bluetri]

gman, #68 is another gem for your binder I would say!

[Guest]

BTW, for the last 30 years, including this last trip, whether BJ or Bac, I see a huge difference in the games presented in high stakes rooms vs the general floor games. I don't think this can all be attributed to less play and newer cards in high stakes rooms. I have always found the best straight up games in high stakes rooms, esp uncrowded high stakes rooms. But on the rare occassions when high stakes rooms get crowded, their games get just as bad as the open floor games. For BJ, we know the reason but for Bac, we don't.

[Guest]

Hey guys,

Could I trouble some of the wiser heads (seems to be everyone but me at the moment!) to have a look at this shoe please?

P 124411223

B 313125122

B 15231512

P 1221215

I won't let you know how I went on it, but suffice to say it wasn't pretty.

Thanks in advance

Chief

BTW Einstein also did not know his own phone number. When rousted about it by a grad student, he replied in full force, "Why would I clog up my brain with information that I can easily find in the phone book?"

A habit apparently also shared by Henry Ford.

Well Chief, I don't know my cell # cause I seldom call myself. So I keep my # in my wallet.

You've somehow managed to enter a near perfect OTB4L M3 U1D2 (our base NOR+ system) shoe that should have caused you little problem. Starting at play 2, per my NOR+ recommendation you finish the first col with +7 easily beating every event.

It goes smoothe until the 5iar at the bottom of col 2. M3 causes you to lose your 4 OTR as well as your 5. But you recup quickly winning your 642 and finishing the second col +11. The losing 3 at play 35 puts you in M2 which holds nicely for the rest of the shoe and you finish at +28. This one was a piece of cake!

OTB4L M3 U1D2 likes everything except 5s and triple 1's (which is a 5 ZZ). The shoe has no triple 1s thankfully and the first 5 occurs too late in the shoe to cause you harm. For the second 5 you are in M2 so no problem. But you lose your second M2 OTR attempt. Therefore when you win your OTR 3 on the 3rd 5 you do not make a 2nd OTR attempt, so you win your 1 bet. The 4th 5 (we are very seldom saying that) you finish the shoe with a winning OTR 3. A very straight forward +28.

Do you need the plays?

[Guest]

You know, I must apologize for the fact that it is difficult for me to put myself in your shoes because it was 30+ years ago that I was in your shoes. But I struggled with the game back then just as you are struggling now. But I had no teacher. Nobody did back then because the game was at its inception in the US. We had to teach ourselves. And the game was easier then because casinos had not yet figured out how to make it difficult. They sure conquered that problem!

So if sometimes I seem to have no patience it's probably only because I'm having a bad morning. At my age and health, we have lots of bad mornings.

[gman72]

You've somehow managed to enter a near perfect OTB4L M3 U1D2 (our base NOR+ system) shoe that should have caused you little problem. Starting at play 2, per my NOR+ recommendation you finish the first col with +7 easily beating every event.

It goes smoothe until the 5iar at the bottom of col 2. M3 causes you to lose your 4 OTR as well as your 5. But you recup quickly winning your 642 and finishing the second col +11. The losing 3 at play 35 puts you in M2 which holds nicely for the rest of the shoe and you finish at +28. This one was a piece of cake!

OTB4L M3 U1D2 likes everything except 5s and triple 1's (which is a 5 ZZ). The shoe has no triple 1s thankfully and the first 5 occurs too late in the shoe to cause you harm. For the second 5 you are in M2 so no problem. But you lose your second M2 OTR attempt. Therefore when you win your OTR 3 on the 3rd 5 you do not make a 2nd OTR attempt, so you win your 1 bet. The 4th 5 (we are very seldom saying that) you finish the shoe with a winning OTR 3. A very straight forward +28.

Do you need the plays?

Here's the shoe played out as Ellis described. I'm off a couple units, but I think I got right. The slight difference starts at the bottom of column 2, where I end up at +13 instead of +11 as Ellis described, which then puts me finishing up at +30 instead of +28.

[Guest]

Gman, your play appears perfect! I probably just added wrong in my haste. You know us geniuses. We can do calculus in our heads but we can't freaking add. Very nice job!

And I see much improvement in your play. You are now paying good attention to detail. Very well done!