Latest practice shoe

[Guest]

I should just let this go, but the accountant in me just has to try and understand it perfectly and get it right. I went back to your play by play post and saw that you changed the plays to reflect the correct transcription of the shoe. I compared it to my play of the shoe and I found where the difference was. In your post you say "we never lose a third bet". Well, based on the way you played it that is correct, but the way I played it we lose the third bet at play #25. Since we are still in M2 I assumed the bet should be an OTR b3, but you made the bet as P3, which would appear to me to be an M3 bet, but I thought we were still in M2 at that point in the shoe. What am I missing or doing wrong?

BTW, this NOR3 idea sounds interesting.

Well, here is the way I see it:

Of course some of the guys like to stay ON all runs once on them which eliminates the question.

I like to go by what I'm seeing in the casino I'm playing. If I'm seeing a lot of long runs, which is sometimes the case in Vegas, I stay on all runs too.

But now we have the compromise way of playing ON OFF ON OFF which seems to make the most sense at least to me. So I think that changes our options once we win OTR with either one or two OTRs but then lose ATR. I think our 2 best options are:

1.) ON OFF ON OFF or

2.) In the case we are simply seeing no long runs at all we bet our whole prog (1234) against the run once we come off of the run. With S40 M2 it would take at least an 8iar to beat us and that is only if we stay on the run for only 1 bet. Anything else takes at least a 9.

But, of the 2, I prefer the First option. The worst that can happen is after winning OTR, then losing 1 ATR, we bet 2 OTR and lose. Not good but a lot better than losing our normal 3 or 4 OTR bets! U1D2 can usually easily survive a losing 2 OTR.

The guys who like to always stay OTR can still do so. But their advantage on a long run is greatly reduced -

Look at a 10 iar we hit playing our usual OTB4L M3. A player who stays on all runs once on them has only a 1 unit advantage vs an On OFF ON OFF Player.

But here is my whole point about the matter:

Now compare 6 iars!

Now our ON OFF ON OFF player has a 4 unit advantage! And we see 6iars a whole lot more than 10iars. See that?

Once we have the ON OFF ON OFF option which we should probably ALWAYS play, staying on all runs until you lose makes a lot less sense. AND, The on off on off player always has the option of staying on the run at any point - the WORST that could happen is deciding to stay OTR could cost him 2 units. It is going to take a 16iar for the stay on the run player to make up for ONE 6iar. I rest my case.

[Guest]

Using the 2-2-1 method , from Keiths Seminar , last Friday night.......the 6th Sept......up to the very last banker bet , for this listed shoe, I was at a +10 ! Thanks Keith !!

Really easy , mechanical play and no guessing what method to use! Or going back , after the fact ...ahhh , thats what I should have done ! ?? TO late !!

iT'S been testing nicely in both Bac & Roulette ! Hey, for $249 , it's still listed here for purchase and worth looking into,IMHO !! THANKS AGAIN KEITH !

johnny/albuquerque

Right, it is pretty darn neat isn't it. But Johnny, were you just betting repeats or just betting opposites or applying the betting strategy to S40? or what were you doing?