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SYSTEM 40 MANDATORY 1 seems to be doing OK } ECD GROUP | November 3, 2013


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You bring up a good point. I have been going over my recently played cards trying to combine the OTB & S40M1.

Works pretty well on over 80% of all shoes. I played both sides for both sides to win with a 1,2 progression

I Bet 1 unit on the side that just lost, a little tricky to do so I put both columns on my score card.

I tried it out at Foxwoods $10 table (was up 2 units from the last shoe) I figured that I would only be down 6 units if it lost - no biggie.

The shoe B1311223112 I was on the wrong side for every bet.

If I played S40M1 alone I would have been +4

If I played OTB I would have been up between +2 to +5units (depending on when you go OTR). I do after 2 losses.

I should have only played one way!!!

I've thought about waiting after a 3 iar to cut out the some of the losses with both systems combined.

There is no Holy grail, but we're trying :) LOL What are your thoughts on this?

I've been playing both S40 and OTB4L at the same time in selective shoes for the last 5 months with great results. I didn't mention it because I was a little concerned that Ellis and the other Pros might shoot me down in flames.

The method I use utilises "Net Betting"...If S40 is telling me to bet 2 units on Bank and OTB4L is saying bet 1 unit on Player... 2 units minus 1 unit = 1 unit on on Bank. (Sorry...had to correct this earlier typo)

I still use normal NOR Table selection but if I see a shoe where the most recent events are equal (or almost) as far as a decision between S40 and OTB4L I play both. (and actually give it preference over other tables) within reason of course

Initially, I reasoned that if one method turned to crap that the other would have to be winning and therefore minimise losses (kinda like insurance)...but funnily enough...in the majority of shoes I've played using this method...both S40 and OTB4L turn out winners.

I started out using U1D2 but that can lead to some scary bets under certain conditions if both systems are saying to bet on the same side

After a bit of advice from Norm, I experimented with his 2 high 1-2 loop and haven't looked back. This means worst scenario that I'm looking at a 3 unit high bet if both systems are saying to bet on the same side.

It certainly lends itself to "hit and and run" because quite often I am up 6 or 7 units after 4 or 5 bets (that might not sound a lot but remember that we are talking 5 mins work) If I'm looking at a 3 unit bet as my next bet it's likely that I'll take the money and run (depending on my chip count for the session...or my mood...LOL)

If either system loses 3iar I will stop betting that system and continue with the other (still betting my 1-2 continuous loop.)

If I see 2 events that show that that the shoe has reverted back to type I will hop back on board.

If the shoe goes totally to crap and my 2nd system is looking a bit dicey...I definitely exit the shoe.

Once in front by 3 or 4 units... I will never allow myself to go into a negative situation

If I have lost a 3 unit bet and both systems are saying to make another 3 unit bet ... "I WON"T MAKE THE BET"... I either exit the shoe immediately...or play a paper bet...watch and wait.

I use a STOP/LOSS of 5 units which I very rarely reach (this gives me a huge confidence boost knowing that I stand to lose such a small amount even if the shoe starts out disastrously) ...Also...the 1-2 continuous loop with the -5 STOP/LOSS enables me to use a larger unit size that I normally use.

There are a few rules that I play by...

I always start by flat betting single units and begin my 1-2 loop after my first win.

My first bet is always going to be a "paper bet"...either OTB4L and S40 are saying to bet a single unit on opposite sides which means a Zero bet...or both methods are saying to bet a single unit on the same side which means starting with a 2 unit bet ( I'm not prepared to risk a -2 situation after my first bet)

I do what it takes to make certain that I am always betting 1-2 on opposite sides.

There are a few other tricks that I've picked up along the way...but this is the gist of it...it seems like a very conservative way to play...but I'm doing very well using this method .

I'm thinking that it wouldn't work out as well using S40M1 because OTB4L loves 2's and S40M1 hates 2's

NOTE: Funny thing that I've noticed...If both systems are saying to bet on the same side...that side generally wins more than it loses.

I fully expect that Ellis is going to kick my butt for this post ( I wasn't going to post it until I had run it past him) but when I saw that you guys were thinking of experimenting with similar methods I thought I might put in my 10c worth

There are probably a whole bunch of reasons that it shouldn't work...but it is working for me

Hope this helps

Oz

PS: I still get shoes where even playing 2H continuous loop where I end up in front by 30+ units which isn't bad methinks for the minimal risk involved

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Great post OZ,

I love progressive thinking. After all, We are only picking either player or banker. Heads or tails in a coin toss :)

Money management is what wins in the casino!!! I try to remember that at the table before I enter what I like

to call "The 51st state - The State of Confusion" LOL

Picking Player or Banker is centuries old now - I wonder how many have gotten in right?

Thanks for your input. Would be fun to meet you sometime :) Ed

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Great post OZ,

I love progressive thinking. After all, We are only picking either player or banker. Heads or tails in a coin toss :)

Money management is what wins in the casino!!! I try to remember that at the table before I enter what I like

to call "The 51st state - The State of Confusion" LOL

Picking Player or Banker is centuries old now - I wonder how many of gotten in right?

Thanks for your input. Would be fun to meet you sometime :) Ed

LOL...That made me laugh...I've been accused of a lot of things in my somewhat eventful life...but being a progressive thinker is certainly not one of them:biggrin:

Everything I've written in that post is just an accumulation of information from Ellis and the other Pros on here...probably not a single original thought by me DAMMIT (I'll have one someday...I live in hope...LOL)

Sure...I'd be keen to have a beer sometime...your shout of course:wink:

Oz

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Don't believe me? Good, let me prove it to you in no uncertain terms.

Everybody do this. Not just these two guys. I want everyone to see the power of net betting and how it can apply to the 4D virtually every shoe.

Draw out this 20 play column:

B21212121212111

OK once you have it drawn out you might be thinking well that's not a fair test for net betting because net betting wants low disparity and the example has nearly twice as many Bs as Ps. Right 13 Bs and 7 Ps. Right! That is BIG disparity but it stays within 6 and that's all you need. 13 - 7 = 6 - a total disparity of 6. Close enough for net betting. And remember with the 4D you have FOUR counts. Don't you think it is pretty reasonable that one of the 4 will have a lower disparity than THIS. I'm thinking you are thinking "I reckon so".

OK, lets say your partner bets a 123 prog on P. And you bet a 123 prog on B. Both starting on Play #1.

Go ahead and fill in your numbers. Do them both on ONE card. You'll see that is easy.

So OK, your partner betting P only, ends up with +1 after betting a total of 39 units.

YOU, betting B only, end up with +12 after betting a total of 26 units.

So together, you end up winning 13 units after betting a total of 65 units. Agreed? Not bad at all BUT.

Look what happens when you both Net Bet!

OK, I'll get you started:

#1 You enter 1 on B, he enters 1 on P. 1-1 = 0 so neither one of you have a table bet at play 1. Then: You are both entering a 123 prpg so:

#2 You enter 1 on B, he enters 2 on P. So your table bets are 1 on P and you LOSE, But now:

#3 You enter 1 on B, he enters 3 on P. So your table bets are 2 on P. You win. Now:

#4 you enter 2 on B he enters 1 on P. You win again.

Now keep going to play 20.

You should quickly see that you don't need a partner - You can make both entries yourself and make the resulting table bet yourself.

So OK, you still end up with +13 BUT instead of betting 65 units, you only bet 26.

So meanwhile, what was your partner doing?

Well hopfully the exact same thing. IF so...

Together, instead of betting a total of 65 units to make +13

You bet a total of 52 units to make +26! A 50% PA for crying out loud. You likely never saw a 50% PA before.

That is the miracle of Net Betting.

Do you hear me NOW?

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So Ok I said with the 4D I can pretty much guarantee a player can make 1 unit 95% of the time.

You maybe thought I was off my rocker.

That means if he wins 1 unit in each of 95 shoes and loses 5 units in each of 5 shoes, he comes out 70 units ahead in every 100 shoes.

But there are many ways to skin that cat.

I just showed you how to make 13 units in one column by net betting the lowest disparity count. And I never bet more than 2 units.

OK suppose our high roller's goal is to make $5000 to pay off his entry fee.

And what if he simply net bets the lowest count with a 12345 prog. His highest bet is 4 but I can show you a simple way to make the highest bet 3 even with a 12345 prog.

I just made 13 units in 20 plays with a disparity of 6 in only 20 plays which is pretty darn huge to be your LOWEST disparity.

Even at $500 units, he beats his goal in just a few minutes of play.

See that?

Still think I'm off my rocker?

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His name is Dave Gunas, you can google .... He is a nice person, and he will introduce you to his family...

Played his team concept with him and others on team, and as Ellis says, you can do it all by yourself...

PS-1. Utube videos are a " teaser" for what is essentially U1D1 / d'Alembert betting system

PS-2. Videos DO NOT REPRESENT what DG "system" is all about

PS-3. Not sure of current pricing, but when I went to visit, price being asked for was $7,500....quickly discerned anyone who would " invest" was getting "the same" from Ellis as a " freebie" along with their paid NOR membership ( simple Net betting, whether "team", or Army of One!)

The NetBetting concept becomes very easy to understand, and can easily be done all by yourself with just the pointers Ellis provides....

What the hell are all you guys doing up at this ungodly hour???

OK, I should have mentioned that Gunas is a nice guy. He is.

But that is NOT what you need!

What you need is an EXPERIENCED teacher even if he's a bastard.

Anyone advocating partner's play in NOT experienced.

And anyone who changes his system at the point of sale is NOT experienced.

Nice guy does not make him worth $7500.

Maybe in 20 years or so if he's still around.

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I don't mean to usurp an S40M1 thread BUT when I see guys talking partners, I've got to speak up.

You can net bet ANYTHING - even S40M1 vs OTB4L

But certainly for the 4D you can net bet:

P v B

O v R

OTB4L v TB4L and

Double O v Double T

Whichever has the lowest disparity

But I've only scratched the surface of net betting. There are many, many tricks of the trade.

Thus far we've only discussed hi side net betting. (You make your table bet on the side with the highest entry)

There is also a time and place for Lo Side net betting which can come in handy when your disparity suddenly sky rockets.

Of course when this happens with the 4D you simply switch to the newest lowest dispariy

But what if I said bet the low side whenever one of the entries is 4 or more???

Watch this! Suppose the worst happens when you are net betting P v B and you get a 9 iar???

Lets say a shoe starts with 9 Ps and we are deploying the above lo side NB trick.

Your P entries will be: 111111111

Your B entries will be: 123456789

Because you are switching to lo side at entries of 4 or more your score will be:

0 -1 -3 0 4 9 15 22 30

See that? So much for 9 iars!

Still can't get my first example right?

OK I'll give you all the entries. Starting at Play#1

Your P entries are: 123 123 123 123 123 123 12 = 20 entries

Your B entries are: 111 211 211 211 211 211 21 = 20 entries

Now, subtract the lo entry from the hi entry and bet the difference on the side of the high entry.

OK, your score starting at play #1 is:

0 -1 1 2 1 3 4 3 5 6 5 7 8 7 9 10 9 11 12 13

After a shoe or 2 you can do the whole thing in your head likitysplit

In this case you end up at +13 with a highest bet of 2 giving you an incredible PA of 50%!

About the only way you could beat that is to shoot the dealer and take all his chips. Ha, I've had days when that occured to me.

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Well I was wrong. I checked my records. I actually published Net Betting in the mid '80s.

I was the first to publish it in English.

If some French guy previously published it in French before me, I couldn't care less.

He never thought of low side net betting

One thing about low side net betting is it always puts you on the side that is winning the most.

So, should we always use it? NO! Stick to the way I said. (at 4+) Every shoe has an optimum time to go low side.

But here's the important thing:

The 4D redefines the importance of Net Betting - It's a natural. It's a given!

Lets wake it up, brush it off, clean it up and take a new hard look at it.

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Hi Ellis

If the disparity in the count changes in mid shoe, Would you change the count you are net betting?

Say O/R is low in the first half, Then O/T becomes the low one mid shoe.

Littlejim

Yes Jim, I would simply since we have all 4 counts at our disposal. We could go to low side net betting but why overcomplicate things.

John, do you agree?

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Wow, looks like I set a bomb on this forum with partner suggestion / net betting and looks very powerful from Ellis's postings.

When using 4D counts, your sample uses P/B, but I'm assuming that lowest disparity can be other counts but P/B would be earliest count as it starts right at the beginning while waiting for 4th column time kick in. Would the 4th not be lowest at that point? Or where or how do we wait for it to evolve before selecting that column or others?

Gee I hope I'm not asking a question of the obvious....

CC

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I don't mean to usurp an S40M1 thread BUT when I see guys talking partners, I've got to speak up.

You can net bet ANYTHING - even S40M1 vs OTB4L

But certainly for the 4D you can net bet:

P v B

O v R

OTB4L v TB4L and

Double O v Double T

Whichever has the lowest disparity

But I've only scratched the surface of net betting. There are many, many tricks of the trade.

Thus far we've only discussed hi side net betting. (You make your table bet on the side with the highest entry)

There is also a time and place for Lo Side net betting which can come in handy when your disparity suddenly sky rockets.

Of course when this happens with the 4D you simply switch to the newest lowest dispariy

But what if I said bet the low side whenever one of the entries is 4 or more???

Watch this! Suppose the worst happens when you are net betting P v B and you get a 9 iar???

Lets say a shoe starts with 9 Ps and we are deploying the above lo side NB trick.

Your P entries will be: 111111111

Your B entries will be: 123456789

Because you are switching to lo side at entries of 4 or more your score will be:

0 -1 -3 0 4 9 15 22 30

See that? So much for 9 iars!

Still can't get my first example right?

OK I'll give you all the entries. Starting at Play#1

Your P entries are: 123 123 123 123 123 123 12 = 20 entries

Your B entries are: 111 211 211 211 211 211 21 = 20 entries

Now, subtract the lo entry from the hi entry and bet the difference on the side of the high entry.

OK, your score starting at play #1 is:

0 -1 1 2 1 3 4 3 5 6 5 7 8 7 9 10 9 11 12 13

After a shoe or 2 you can do the whole thing in your head likitysplit

In this case you end up at +13 with a highest bet of 2 giving you an incredible PA of 50%!

About the only way you could beat that is to shoot the dealer and take all his chips. Ha, I've had days when that occured to me.

Your example looks like S40M1 with 2 OTR's, just a coincidence?

How would the net bets change if there were a couple of B's mixed in the P sequence?

CC

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Vincent, I'm quite certain the cards don't know what country they are in. Every shoe ever dealt is low in something, either 1's, 2s, 3s, or 4+s. That is a given.

S40M1 prefers shoes low in 2s. Normal 2s are 9 per shoe - about 2 per col. But you can have as few as zero. Low 2s will occur in nearly half of all shoes. Look at it this way: 2's are either high or low or dead even. It is pretty much 50/50.

All 3 NOR systems like 2s:

S40 likes 2s

OTB4L loves 2s

F3 likes 2s

At first glance NOR doesn't seem to have a system that beats the half of shoes low in 2s.

But NOR, in fact, does. S40M1 LOVES low 2s.

The problem that occurs is that as soon as I draw your attention to a specific NOR selection, Students start trying to play it exclusively rather than only in the shoe type that likes that selection. When I tried to introduce OTB4LM1, I FIRST said this is ONLY for low 3s and high 4+s - also about 50% of all shoes. But I no sooner introduced it than students were trying to play it exclusively W/O first noting the shoe type at hand. So I stopped teaching it because I was doing more harm than good. I asked one member who had posted a shoe he had lost why in the world was he playing OTB4LM1. Answer; "Because I always play OTB4LM1".

Look, NOR is about matching the right system and the right mode to the shoe at hand. I said at the beginning: "The most important factor of NOR is to know what each system likes and what it dislikes and I've posted the likes and dislikes of each system many times.

vinfong, you said "Mixed shoes, ding dong, then OTb and streak ....... or the other way round you name it......"

You've just described Baccarat everywhere.

But, nevertheless, EVERY shoe ever dealt is high in something(s) and equally low in something(s). That is not an opinion. It is a pure mathematical FACT.

And that is what decides which system and which mode we play.

Shoes don't catch up. Usually whatever is low stays low and whatever is high stays high. IF shoes caught up, EVERYBODY would beat Baccarat. We would simply bet on whatever is behind. There are such systems on the internet. Those systems are largely responsible for the impossibly high casino Baccarat profits. Casinos MARVEL at the stupidity of players. I marvel at the stupidity of system designers. Most don't have a clue. All players need to do, as every casino knows full well, is to bet the exact opposite - that whatever is behind will go further behind and whatever is ahead will go further ahead.

OK here we go again:

Mode 2 is our streak mode

Mode 3 is our chop mode

Mode 1 is a super streak mode

BTW, the best thing to do with super chop is simply bet straight opposites.

S40 likes high 1's and low 3+s (2s are good)

OTB4L likes high 2s and low 4+s (3s are good)

F particularly likes Strong side and long straight and/or ZZ runs

F2 hates 2s on the weak side

F3 hates 3s on the weak side.

Now, note that there is no system there for low 2s except F2 but F2 does not like runs on both sides. That puts a big hole in our armor.

What do we do when we see runs on both sides with low 2s? Well I'll tell you. We LOSE.

Therefore, I'm giving you a system that likes EVERYTHING except 2s - S40M1.

It loves ZZs - wins every bet

It loves 1's, 3s 4s 5s and straight or ZZ runs of any length.

It hates one thing and one thing only - 2s. It LOVES EVERYTHING else.

And half of all shoes has low 2's but particularly streaky shoes. (It is pretty hard to have a choppy shoe low in 2s)

NOW you have a very high scoring way to play this common shoe type that here-to-fore we usually lost.

When you think about it, any time you can turn a losing shoe into a high winner, you do WONDERS for your bottom line.

But can you play it in every shoe? Watch my lips! There is NO system you can play every shoe and win at Baccarat. NONE!

That is the WHOLE point of NOR and why it is composed of multiple systems.

Half of all shoes has low 2s, so I'm giving you the best system for low 2s... S40M1.

Thanks Ellis for the explanation.

One crucial question is when do we deploy using s40m1 ? after 20 hands played or at the begining of the shoe?

regards,

Vincent

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Thanks Ellis for the explanation.

One crucial question is when do we deploy using s40m1 ? after 20 hands played or at the begining of the shoe?

regards,

Vincent

Well you would likely already know that you are at a streaky table.

But your S40M1 signals are a strong minus OR count with no 2s showing.

For instance a shoe starting with 1 3 4 or 3,5. Remember we LIKE 1's. We like EVERYTHING except 2s.

20 plays is too long to wait. You could easily end up watching the best part of the shoe go by.

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Well you would likely already know that you are at a streaky table.

But your S40M1 signals are a strong minus OR count with no 2s showing.

For instance a shoe starting with 1 3 4 or 3,5. Remember we LIKE 1's. We like EVERYTHING except 2s.

20 plays is too long to wait. You could easily end up watching the best part of the shoe go by.

Hi Ellis,

Thanks for the reply .

I have a few question on Net betting using 4D.

Say one of the 4D i.e O/T is 4 , if low side net betting do we place 1 chip on player and 1 chip on banker to start off the net bet ?

or since we have more O and we start to bet on T to come by just betting on T ?

To me if you say 4+ we start lo side net betting , I am confuse about placing 1 chip on both side to start the netbetting, isnt it same to the other D as well whenever the result came out to be.

I would appreciate if you could explain more on low side net betting.

Thanks

Regards,

Vincent

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Hi Ellis,

Thanks for the reply .

I have a few question on Net betting using 4D.

Say one of the 4D i.e O/T is 4 , if low side net betting do we place 1 chip on player and 1 chip on banker to start off the net bet ?

or since we have more O and we start to bet on T to come by just betting on T ?

To me if you say 4+ we start lo side net betting , I am confuse about placing 1 chip on both side to start the netbetting, isnt it same to the other D as well whenever the result came out to be.

I would appreciate if you could explain more on low side net betting.

Thanks

Regards,

Vincent

No Vincent! We start net betting by entering a 1 vs 1 on our score card. Our table bet is 0 because 1 from 1 is 0.

OK, one side loses so it goes to 2, The other side wins so it stays at 1. OK, 1 from 2 is 1 so our table bet is 1 on the hi side - the side where you entered your 2.

Now, for lo side net betting 2 H - when we have a 4 entry on one side, the other side is automatically a 2 instead of a 1. So our table bet is 4-2=2.

But we bet the 2 on the lo side - the side that had the 2 entry. This puts us ON any run for the duration of the run. So if the run doesn't continue we only lost a 2 bet rather than a 3 or 4. You can even make it a 1 bet if you want or even a 0 bet.

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BTW guys, you should all now have access to the 4D forum. You may need to go to the BTC front page and subscribe to the forum so that you get your email notices. Just hit the green circle after the 4D heading and follow the directions.

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Hello everyone! My name is Abby N. and I’m a new member! I’ve read the public BTC Baccarat forums as a guest for several months; I've practiced a lot by using the free information that I found--kept a lot of records and notes; I opened a “fun play†account at betphoenix - not getting ahead, but holding steady, so I need to learn the NOR and NOR+ so I can win consistently and then deposit real money.

I am from the Midwest and the nearest casino is 2 and ½ hrs away. My husband is not interested in gambling. A few of my friends play slots - none of them have ever read a book or studied anything about gambling. So, baccarat is my secret world - thank goodness for this forum!

I appreciate how polite and patient all of the members of this forum are - especially Ellis.

The big news of the day is..that..after reading the manual and spending several hours reading the NOR threads - light bulbs are lighting up in my head! I’m understanding the concepts! And I finally figured out what On the Run means!

I don’t like to ask many questions, so I may not post a lot..but I will keep reading and learning and practicing! I want to prove to my husband and friends that going to casinos can be fun and profitable, and not a silly waste of time.

So glad to be a member!!!

Abby N

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BTW guys, you should all now have access to the 4D forum. You may need to go to the BTC front page and subscribe to the forum so that you get your email notices. Just hit the green circle after the 4D heading and follow the directions.

DUH ! Please spell it out so I understand Ellis ! :) LOL...........HOW DO I GET INTO THE 4D FORUM ! :)

THANKS......

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It seems like this question routed responses to talk about using partners. But, may not have addressed the original question....regarding only using OTB4L and S40M1, instead of all 4 NOR system and modes. Shouldn't mastering these two systems mentioned in his question below satisfy most shoes until we complete and master 4D???

question: Since S40M1 likes everything except TTs, and since OTB4L loves TTs; from a pure logic perspective, are these not really the only two systems necessary to win? I know that you talk about having many tools, but it would seem that these two tools cover virtually every possible situation. The key question would be when or if to change from one to the other within a shoe.

7.gif

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me too HOW DO YOU GET INTO 4D FORUM

I can sorta get into the 4D Forum except the only Thread I can see there is mine when I asked if NOR members were locked out of the 4D...LOL

I know there are other threads discussing the 4D...but I can't access them for some reason

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me too HOW DO YOU GET INTO 4D FORUM

I thought it was just me.....old age ! LOL

But I see others also don't know how ?

I read over and followed Ellis's instruction...but I just don't see anything that he says to do ?

Also, been talk about updates to the 2-2-1 and better way of playing it .

Also Keith mentioned during the 221 webinar , that he was going to try the method on bac. If so , wonder how it worked out ?

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