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Chubby Checker...perhaps it was Ellis, after all


kachatz1

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I'll try Word next 48 hours

In the meantime, this is simple U1D1M2 " math"

It is a version if the Dalembert betting sequence

Ellis has explained many times in this forum the method, the risks and the rewards

So I will not go into that...

In my original post, I did not want to get into a discussion of how commission could affect the outcome

So I picked the "trigger point" to only be Player

In reality , it works whether the trigger point is Banker or Player

Here is how I have done it last 10 days, playing all or part of 48 shoes

After a 3-or-more " event" on either P/B side, it will eventually switch to the opposite B/ P side.

After the switch occurs, and immediately after it has gone 1 win in the weak side , SWITCH BACK and bet the strong side which had the 3-or-more event

It's a 50/50 proposition over many shoes

Pretend all 48 shoes were laid end-to-end, even though played at many different casinos over 10 days

This is how it works... Ellis can best explain the risks, the rewards, the probabilities, the "bankroll issues"

I integrate this play into my NOR+/4D style of play

If you do not understand the probabilities of a 3-or-more "event" followed by a 1 event on the opposite side, or any number followed by any number, reread Ellis answers to my two original posts

And, if you don't understand U1D1M2 betting, do not play the TWIST until you do...

Good luck to all!!

OK, we used to call that a super bet. You are betting that 3 or mores are followed by a 1. While yes, that is mathematically 50/50 each time, our studies show that particular bet is a little better than 50/50.

But here's the thing with U1D1M2. If you merely match the game odds and only win 50% you win big time, over all.

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kachatz1

Ellis, I think you just "hit the nail on the head" with calling this " the super bet"

NOR+ puts us in a position to play virtually every hand in a shoe, at least up until we reach our stop win/stop loss " exit point"

4D was originally conceived to be a method by which we could identify 1,2 or maybe several " super bets" ( defined as a bet much larger than our regular bet unit size) in a shoe, and then exit

THE TWIST seems to fall in between, somewhere between 3-12X per shoe, with average shoes played beginning to end averaging 7-9x per shoe betting after a 3-or-more EVENT on one side ( P or B) is followed by a switch to the other side ( then immediately bet back on the original strong side, REGARDLESS OF NOR+ or 4D " signals")

It's the math of the game, coupled with the +/- risk/reward math of the betting progression which determines the outcome.

You pointed this out to me in 2010, when I made the HORSE WITH NO NAME post, along with me finally coming to understand the U1D1 betting sequence

It just took me a long time to " put 2+2 together" , and one day while playing my NOR+/4D style of play it finally dawned on me!

This was back in the fall of last year, and I have been using it ever since.

Better still, imagine a casino like Mohegan Sun in CT, or Horseshoe just outside of Chicago, or The Gold Coast in Las Vegas with many, many tables and the ability to move table-2-table and just place TWIST bets.

If only the lightbulb had come on back then...

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kachatz1
OK, we used to call that a super bet. You are betting that 3 or mores are followed by a 1. While yes, that is mathematically 50/50 each time, our studies show that particular bet is a little better than 50/50.

But here's the thing with U1D1M2. If you merely match the game odds and only win 50% you win big time, over all.

Ellis,

(1) with NOR +, played properly and CONSISTENTLY ( read my lips, CONSISTENTLY), we win most shoes

(2) with 4D, played according to the rules, as yet To-Be - FINALIZED, we win most shoes

(3) with a proper betting progression, and a proper bankroll, we win most shoes

(4) with a simple " math" gambit for the game of baccarat ( like THE TWIST), we know the odds (50/50), we will win BIG

Put it all together in one " system/method-of-play" , with proper bankroll and stop-win, stop-loss " rules" , I really do not think we can lose over the course of a series of shoes

Hoping/ knowing you will put-it-all-together- for us.

OH, AND PLEASE RAISE THE PRICE OF ADMISSSION TO THE FORUM to WELL OVER $1,000 !!

- U are "giving-this-away" for way, way less than the true value.

It's your business, up to you and Keith, but....

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kachatz1
Ellis,

(1) with NOR +, played properly and CONSISTENTLY ( read my lips, CONSISTENTLY), we win most shoes

(2) with 4D, played according to the rules, as yet To-Be - FINALIZED, we win most shoes

(3) with a proper betting progression, and a proper bankroll, we win most shoes

(4) with a simple " math" gambit for the game of baccarat ( like THE TWIST), we know the odds (50/50), we will win BIG

Put it all together in one " system/method-of-play" , with proper bankroll and stop-win, stop-loss " rules" , I really do not think we can lose over the course of a series of shoes

Hoping/ knowing you will put-it-all-together- for us.

OH, AND PLEASE RAISE THE PRICE OF ADMISSSION TO THE FORUM to WELL OVER $1,000 !!

- U are "giving-this-away" for way, way less than the true value.

It's your business, up to you and Keith, but....

PS --

Only thing left is to offer a " no-strings-attached, money-back - guarantee"

So fail-safe, that with one-on-one/ face-to-face instruction, it cannot lose.

Let me know you need marketing/ " boots-on-the-ground" assistance.

I'll put my money where my mouth is.

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Kevin, just wanted to weigh in with my thoughts on the TWIST. Your idea of using it as a hit and run system of three or four bets per shoe and move on is exactly what my first thought was. It is similar to the hit and run first base system that Ellis teaches in Blackjack. There are many smaller casinos where one can not find a seat, but opportunity exists for "over the shoulder" betting. Your twist may just be the ticket for such situations, and with relative safety to boot. Kudos

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I agree Brendan.

I see the light.

So my question is: Would it not then be the same whether you were playing

the twist or any other betting method?

Over time, wouldnt everything resolve equally, or is there more of an

advantage betting combined "events" like a 4-2 ? (in the short term)

And if there is a distinct advantage, how much of an advantage is it?

Anyone... Thanks forthe input!!

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kachatz1

What is your bankroll?

I cannot possibly answer this question without knowing that and advising what I feel " prudent" accordingly...

In my standard NOR+/4D play, I still like the -8 unit stop loss and I pretty much let the winners " run", unless the shoe is turning and I feel it time to exit. My unit size is generally $25 to $50.

For TWIST plays, my unit size is higher, and I have never yet hit a point at which I fel I have to " stop"

-------- you do not have to play every opportunity...In a casino or area with lots of tables, there are literally 100+ " opportunities" a day to make the plays using U1D1.......in a place like Vegas, there are 1,000++ every day, if one wants to work at it...

-------- each time you " resolve" a sequence( meaning getting back to your M1,M2, M3 etc base level, or depending on the length of the sequence, even close to being resolved), it is EZ to start again using a new base unit level

-----------------move fom $25 to $50, or $50 to $100, or $200 to $25....there are even $10 and $15 tables here in Vegas...

Hope this helps...It is your bankroll + your table selection " abilities" + your tolerance for risk which must be factored into the equation to determine a proper answer...

I have maintained for many years that this is " work", not just a " guessing game"

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kachatz1
What is your bankroll?

I cannot possibly answer this question without knowing that and advising what I feel " prudent" accordingly...

In my standard NOR+/4D play, I still like the -8 unit stop loss and I pretty much let the winners " run", unless the shoe is turning and I feel it time to exit. My unit size is generally $25 to $50.

For TWIST plays, my unit size is higher, and I have never yet hit a point at which I fel I have to " stop"

-------- you do not have to play every opportunity...In a casino or area with lots of tables, there are literally 100+ " opportunities" a day to make the plays using U1D1.......in a place like Vegas, there are 1,000++ every day, if one wants to work at it...

-------- each time you " resolve" a sequence( meaning getting back to your M1,M2, M3 etc base level, or depending on the length of the sequence, even close to being resolved), it is EZ to start again using a new base unit level

-----------------move fom $25 to $50, or $50 to $100, or $200 to $25....there are even $10 and $15 tables here in Vegas...

Hope this helps...It is your bankroll + your table selection " abilities" + your tolerance for risk which must be factored into the equation to determine a proper answer...

I have maintained for many years that this is " work", not just a " guessing game"

Just had to add this...

REMINDER!!!

THE TWIST can work on virtually any combination of P/B - B/P " trigger points"

Examples:

1/1

1/2

2/1

1/3

3/1

2/3

3/2

Etc

Etc.

Imagine if you had a large enough bankroll, you could be playing multiple sequences at the same time. !!!

But just like SAP, or Ad1, or s40, or NOR, or 4D....or?.

Make absolutely certain you have practiced until you understand how,when,why and where your chosen method works....And What It Loses To, and what to do about it....

Same goes for THE TWIST.

Or any other betting method/ betting progression.

Good luck!

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What is your bankroll?

I cannot possibly answer this question without knowing that and advising what I feel " prudent" accordingly...

In my standard NOR+/4D play, I still like the -8 unit stop loss and I pretty much let the winners " run", unless the shoe is turning and I feel it time to exit. My unit size is generally $25 to $50.

For TWIST plays, my unit size is higher, and I have never yet hit a point at which I fel I have to " stop"

-------- you do not have to play every opportunity...In a casino or area with lots of tables, there are literally 100+ " opportunities" a day to make the plays using U1D1.......in a place like Vegas, there are 1,000++ every day, if one wants to work at it...

-------- each time you " resolve" a sequence( meaning getting back to your M1,M2, M3 etc base level, or depending on the length of the sequence, even close to being resolved), it is EZ to start again using a new base unit level

-----------------move fom $25 to $50, or $50 to $100, or $200 to $25....there are even $10 and $15 tables here in Vegas...

Hope this helps...It is your bankroll + your table selection " abilities" + your tolerance for risk which must be factored into the equation to determine a proper answer...

I have maintained for many years that this is " work", not just a " guessing game"

Hi Kevin,

Normally, when there is a "Twist" bet and a NOR+ but to make ,

do you replace the NOR+ bet with the Twist Bet ?

add the 2 bets together ?

net bet the 2 bets ?

then use the outcome for the TWIST progression and the NOR+ progression ?

Or am I off in left field somewhere ?

Thanks in Advance.

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kachatz1
Hi Kevin,

Normally, when there is a "Twist" bet and a NOR+ but to make ,

do you replace the NOR+ bet with the Twist Bet ?

add the 2 bets together ?

net bet the 2 bets ?

then use the outcome for the TWIST progression and the NOR+ progression ?

Or am I off in left field somewhere ?

Thanks in Advance.

I personally keep it simple.

NOR+ is " designed" to help us make a decision for every single hand.

----It does not mandate that we do so.

4D was originally contemplated as a way to make just a few bets per shoe, sitting out until the right " opportunity " arose.

I was unable to attend the seminar, so I am speaking only from my experience with the way I play NOR+/4D together.

This means I am NOT making every bet in the shoe, usually more like 60-75%, now that I have so many " signals" to follow by combining both methods of play

In summary, My experience is to just let the math of THE TWIST bets override what NOR+/4D is saying at that moment when a TWIST opportunity arises, unless the indicators are so strong that I simply must make the NOR+/4D bet in addition to the TWIST bet.

this may, or may not require me to net bet, or possibly signal me to go ahead and just add the two bets together for a single side play.

Practically speaking, though, at Casino speed I am looking 1-2 hands ahead so I make sure I spot the TWIST bet opportunities forming, so as to make sure I do not miss them.

Once you go back and look at some old cards of yours, and try this in " real time" you will see it is not difficult at all, especially when not playing every single hand of the shoe...

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What is your bankroll?

I cannot possibly answer this question without knowing that and advising what I feel " prudent" accordingly...

In my standard NOR+/4D play, I still like the -8 unit stop loss and I pretty much let the winners " run", unless the shoe is turning and I feel it time to exit. My unit size is generally $25 to $50.

For TWIST plays, my unit size is higher, and I have never yet hit a point at which I fel I have to " stop"

-------- you do not have to play every opportunity...In a casino or area with lots of tables, there are literally 100+ " opportunities" a day to make the plays using U1D1.......in a place like Vegas, there are 1,000++ every day, if one wants to work at it...

-------- each time you " resolve" a sequence( meaning getting back to your M1,M2, M3 etc base level, or depending on the length of the sequence, even close to being resolved), it is EZ to start again using a new base unit level

-----------------move fom $25 to $50, or $50 to $100, or $200 to $25....there are even $10 and $15 tables here in Vegas...

Hope this helps...It is your bankroll + your table selection " abilities" + your tolerance for risk which must be factored into the equation to determine a proper answer...

I have maintained for many years that this is " work", not just a " guessing game"

Just had to add this...

REMINDER!!!

THE TWIST can work on virtually any combination of P/B - B/P " trigger points"

Examples:

1/1

1/2

2/1

1/3

3/1

2/3

3/2

Etc

Etc.

Imagine if you had a large enough bankroll, you could be playing multiple sequences at the same time. !!!

But just like SAP, or Ad1, or s40, or NOR, or 4D....or?.

Make absolutely certain you have practiced until you understand how,when,why and where your chosen method works....And What It Loses To, and what to do about it....

Same goes for THE TWIST.

Or any other betting method/ betting progression.

Good luck!

So you are using multiple trigger entries not just one per shoe for the twist. Because it would be boring waiting for that one sequence of 4/2. To present itself in a shoe.

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I personally keep it simple.

NOR+ is " designed" to help us make a decision for every single hand.

----It does not mandate that we do so.

4D was originally contemplated as a way to make just a few bets per shoe, sitting out until the right " opportunity " arose.

I was unable to attend the seminar, so I am speaking only from my experience with the way I play NOR+/4D together.

This means I am NOT making every bet in the shoe, usually more like 60-75%, now that I have so many " signals" to follow by combining both methods of play

In summary, My experience is to just let the math of THE TWIST bets override what NOR+/4D is saying at that moment when a TWIST opportunity arises, unless the indicators are so strong that I simply must make the NOR+/4D bet in addition to the TWIST bet.

this may, or may not require me to net bet, or possibly signal me to go ahead and just add the two bets together for a single side play.

Practically speaking, though, at Casino speed I am looking 1-2 hands ahead so I make sure I spot the TWIST bet opportunities forming, so as to make sure I do not miss them.

Once you go back and look at some old cards of yours, and try this in " real time" you will see it is not difficult at all, especially when not playing every single hand of the shoe...

Thanks Kevin,

Do you prefer one set up over the others (e.g. 3/1, 4/1, etc.) or do you decide as the shoe unfolds?

Regards,

Glenn

"Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine per cent perspiration...do your homework" Thomas A. Edison

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kachatz1

Quiz-

You are already examining NOR+ aspects of the shoe, making decisions...

You are already looking at 4D disparities, deciding where to zig, where to zag...

I almost always, always play the twist as :

3-or-more event one side, 1 switch to the opposite side, and NEXT BET IS THE TWIST ( back to the " strong side")

I treat 3/1, 4/1, 5/1, 6/1, etc " as all the same..."....over time, they all resolve to 50/50 ( so don' t have to " cherry-pick" , unless you decide you do not want to play that TWIST opportunity, or you want to play every other opportunity, or you just don't like the way the shoe is setting up...)

BUT! My experience indicates " cherry-picking" is just extra work, as you'll end up 50/50 just with the math of the game...it is just a matter of your bankroll, your tolerance for progressive betting, and how much you want to spend time worrying about THE TWIST vs. what NOR+/4D is already taking a lot of time and attention...

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Quiz-

You are already examining NOR+ aspects of the shoe, making decisions...

You are already looking at 4D disparities, deciding where to zig, where to zag...

I almost always, always play the twist as :

3-or-more event one side, 1 switch to the opposite side, and NEXT BET IS THE TWIST ( back to the " strong side")

I treat 3/1, 4/1, 5/1, 6/1, etc " as all the same..."....over time, they all resolve to 50/50 ( so don' t have to " cherry-pick" , unless you decide you do not want to play that TWIST opportunity, or you want to play every other opportunity, or you just don't like the way the shoe is setting up...)

BUT! My experience indicates " cherry-picking" is just extra work, as you'll end up 50/50 just with the math of the game...it is just a matter of your bankroll, your tolerance for progressive betting, and how much you want to spend time worrying about THE TWIST vs. what NOR+/4D is already taking a lot of time and attention...

Thanks Kevin!

Are 2/1's not a good choice?

Regards,

Glenn

"Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine per cent perspiration...do your homework" Thomas A. Edison

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kachatz1
Thanks Kevin!

Are 2/1's not a good choice?

The lower the numbers you pick ( like 2/1 is lower than 3/1 or 4/2 or 3/4 or ??) , the more times you will be placing wagers.

Glenn-

Using U1D1 , they all will eventually " resolve" to 50/50 over a period of time.

Here is where the " give a man a fish, feed him for a day....teach a man to fish, feed him for a lifetime" saying comes into play.

LOOK AT SOME OF YOUR PRIOR CARDS, take out a piece of paper and replay the 2/1 opportunities and tell us all at the forum "the answer", and what you discover.

You will be doing yourself, and all forum members a great favor.

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kachatz1
Is it because a 1's event happens 50% of the time?

Brendan,

If you lay all shoes ever played end-to-end, and play them as if they were one long, long continuous series of events, you would find:

1-events " stay" 1-events 50% of the time, and 50% of the time they will become a 2-or-more event.

2-events " stay" 2-events 50% of the time, and 50% of the time they will become a 3-or-more event.

3-events .......

4-events........

5-events........

Now, I am NOT a mathematician, nor do I play one on TV.

I have never written a computer program to "test" 1,000 ....1,000,000 or 1,000,000,000,000 shoes. And I don't intend to.

And my name is not Zumma.

So...., could it be 50.2%? Or 50.4%? Or 49.823456789%

Well, there is lots of research been done on this, and Ellis can likely give you the precise results....

But for all practical purposes, playing in REAL CASINOS,and assuming an 8 deck game( the only one I have ever played), and assuming the house does not cheat, and the dealer knows how to deal, and.....

YES, for all practical purposes the " events" will resolve to an average of " 50/50" as described above , +\- some very, very small fraction of a percent....a percent so small that if it were any larger, likely the rules of the game would have to be changed to accommodate that nuance....

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kachatz1
With the Twist,

Do you play just Player/Banker or do you also play O/R, O/T, OO/TT Just as much?

LittleJim

I do not know of any empirical, verified quantitative analysis on the outcome of O/R, O/T or OO/TT "events", but perhaps there is some....

Or it could be/has been tested to see the results.

But you know what my guess would be, all shoes ever played laid end to end? ( I think you know what my guess would be...)

Another good question for the Quants/ computer programmers....

If this would be an exploitable advantage for the average player, WOW!

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Do you always play U1D1 until it resolves no matter what? If you find yourself in some high bets for a while do you ever go down 2 on a win then continue on with U1D1? Also do you always use M2?

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kachatz1
Do you always play U1D1 until it resolves no matter what? If you find yourself in some high bets for a while do you ever go down 2 on a win then continue on with U1D1? Also do you always use M2?

U1D2M2 seems to work best for me, and is what I am comfortable playing with.

Ellis has cited/ discussed/ analyzed/ picked-apart many "progressions" on the forum. Most are called "negative progressions" ( bet higher after a LOSS...bet lower after a WIN

there are others....

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What is the general concensus out there on the Twist ?

Anyone actually out there tested it or playing it ?

What are your results ?

Ellis addressed it a couple of times but not with great excitement as he did with Oz from Australia and 100 straight wins.

Who has disappeared , as far as I know ? And never , again , as far as I know , ever presented more than a couple of shoes and promised more as soon as he mastered the use of his newly acquired scanner ??

Hope he is ok !Or maybe, simply just never desired to share anymore info ?

Kevin posts are often and informative and funny and very witty ! LOL !

His Twist is very interesting , simple almost fully mechanical .......works for Kevin , and wondering if it works as well for other folks ?

Ellis , anymore thoughts on Kevins method ?

I plan to fully test it and than maybe play it 2 miles down the road . But they only have one table , sometimes 2 open when busy. In fact Kevin has actually played at Sandia , here in Albuquerque ! Kevin , conditions at Sandia , condusive to Twist success ? Hit and run ?

Also, have any Vegas locals played at the Baccarat machines at the Palazzo ? Have you seen them Kevin ? Any thoughts on them ?

Thank You

johnny/albuquerque

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kachatz1
What is the general concensus out there on the Twist ?

Anyone actually out there tested it or playing it ?

What are your results ?

Ellis addressed it a couple of times but not with great excitement as he did with Oz from Australia and 100 straight wins.

Who has disappeared , as far as I know ? And never , again , as far as I know , ever presented more than a couple of shoes and promised more as soon as he mastered the use of his newly acquired scanner ??

Hope he is ok !Or maybe, simply just never desired to share anymore info ?

Kevin posts are often and informative and funny and very witty ! LOL !

His Twist is very interesting , simple almost fully mechanical .......works for Kevin , and wondering if it works as well for other folks ?

Ellis , anymore thoughts on Kevins method ?

I plan to fully test it and than maybe play it 2 miles down the road . But they only have one table , sometimes 2 open when busy. In fact Kevin has actually played at Sandia , here in Albuquerque ! Kevin , conditions at Sandia , condusive to Twist success ? Hit and run ?

Also, have any Vegas locals played at the Baccarat machines at the Palazzo ? Have you seen them Kevin ? Any thoughts on them ?

Thank You

johnny/albuquerque

Johnny

Have not played Venetian/ Palazzo recently

I never play " on line" , no matter how real the dealers appear (DEAD or ALIVE...Bon Jovi)

The TWIST concept is simple U1D1M2 math...applied CONSISTENTLY to the same set of parameters you decide on in the BAC game of your choice

It is about bankroll, discipline, ability to keep track

Stir and repeat

Good luck, and call me 850-687-3128

You need any help

Kevin

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