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Chubby Checker...perhaps it was Ellis, after all


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My casino only has 3 tables and 2 are usually only open. I've been playing practice shoes and it has been doing well. Sometimes you hit a rough patch but sometimes all you can do is laugh when you win bet after bet. I don't have the luxury of hit and run twist bets due to there only being 2 tables in my casino. So when I practice I simply flat bet NOR until I get a twist bet then bet that with a bigger bet. It's a small sample size but I'm ahead 30 units on Twist bets and around 20 regular bets just flat betting NOR in 10 shoes. I'm not playing NOR for a profit but just to keep the game moving and keep my seat (what if u are the only player at the table).

Katchaz - I noticed you mentioned u said u play Twist U1D2M2 in an earlier post but said U1D1M2 this time. Was one a typo?

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My casino only has 3 tables and 2 are usually only open. I've been playing practice shoes and it has been doing well. Sometimes you hit a rough patch but sometimes all you can do is laugh when you win bet after bet. I don't have the luxury of hit and run twist bets due to there only being 2 tables in my casino. So when I practice I simply flat bet NOR until I get a twist bet then bet that with a bigger bet. It's a small sample size but I'm ahead 30 units on Twist bets and around 20 regular bets just flat betting NOR in 10 shoes. I'm not playing NOR for a profit but just to keep the game moving and keep my seat (what if u are the only player at the table).

Katchaz - I noticed you mentioned u said u play Twist U1D2M2 in an earlier post but said U1D1M2 this time. Was one a typo?

ZT-

Yes

U1D1M2

Typing from my cell phone...

Again, U1D1M2 is correct

Google Dalembert betting progression

Explains The Good, the Bad, and The Ugly

Ellis has discussed many variations thereof on the forum, but he did not invent it, and likely Dally himself was inspired by others

If you've never seen the Clint Eastwood movie, it is worth a look!

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Johnny

Have not played Venetian/ Palazzo recently

I never play " on line" , no matter how real the dealers appear (DEAD or ALIVE...Bon Jovi)

The TWIST concept is simple U1D1M2 math...applied CONSISTENTLY to the same set of parameters you decide on in the BAC game of your choice

It is about bankroll, discipline, ability to keep track

Stir and repeat

Good luck, and call me 850-687-3128

You need any help

Kevin

THANKS KEVIN FOR TAKING TIME TO ADDRESS MY QUESTIONS !!

BEST TO YOU OUT THERE IN VEGAS !

Gonna make a trip soon ....want to try those Bac Machines at the Palazzo. My understanding is the dealer is live and bets and results are at your own individual console........kinda away from rubbing elbows with a chain smoker just inches away ! :)

johnny/abq

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ZT-

Yes

U1D1M2

Typing from my cell phone...

Again, U1D1M2 is correct

Google Dalembert betting progression

Explains The Good, the Bad, and The Ugly

Ellis has discussed many variations thereof on the forum, but he did not invent it, and likely Dally himself was inspired by others

If you've never seen the Clint Eastwood movie, it is worth a look!

Well, I came up with U1D1 and U1D1M2 in about 1989. No one, including me, had ever heard of Dalembert at that time and no Baccarat books had been published - at least in English. I published U1D1M2 on our previous site, Winning Ways, 20 years ago. Of course it was immediately stolen by Leonard Benson the same day I published it. He had it up for sale within a week calling it Ying Yang or some such nonsense. But then, everything I ever published, Benson immediately stole. BTW, is he still in hiding outside the Country, does anyone know? Meanwhile, it's nice to be able to publish something W/O having it immediately stolen.

But as to U1D1M2 vs U1D2 for the twist. Yes, U1D1M2 will win ANY 50/50 bet eventually. But, beating my computer i've had U1D1M2 bets get as high as 22 units. So as I said when I published it 20 years ago, it is too risky for casino play unless you came into the game prepared with 252 units to bet.

But, this is easy to fix. Here is what you do: Play U1D1M2 except come down 2 on winning bets of 5 or more and down 3 on winning bets of 8 or more.

You usually win just as much as U1D1M2 BUT you have removed the risk. See that?

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Hi Brendan,

So what are your thoughts on the 'Twist' method? Was it successful for you?

I'm hoping to get to the casino soon to try it out...

Thanks,

mtman

What is successful to you? I lost the last hand using the twist method, after three successful attempts. I put everything on the table if I win great if not I breakeven and go home. I went home it's still a 50/50 system with the U1D2 progression. I am at the point where making plus 5 and then leaving the casino is pretty easy. Now I want my plus 5 to be 50$ or 200$ right now im only at 25$. Do your homework and it will come to you either at the table at home or in your dreams. :)

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Just worked on posting long update of last 10 days playing "the twist" in all/part of 48 shoes here in Las Vegas

Up over $11,000 after all commission and "unresolved" U1D1M2 bets.

Hit "submit". and lost my whole post!!

THE TWIST.

IT WORKS.

Now up over$ 14,800 just on THE TWIST alone in last 17 days...sometimes $25, sometimes $50, sometimes $100 unit progression...

You'd think I play all day, every day.

N.O.T.

Been playing mostly at the Gold Coast, where there is literally a TWIST opportunity every 60 seconds....( 14 tables) ....happening so fast, I miss most of them....

(And NO, this does not include $$ won from NOR+/4D regular play @ casinos all over town)

Hope none of you work for the IRS....

YIKES!!!

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Now up over$ 14,800 just on THE TWIST alone in last 17 days...sometimes $25, sometimes $50, sometimes $100 unit progression...

You'd think I play all day, every day.

N.O.T.

Been playing mostly at the Gold Coast, where there is literally a TWIST opportunity every 60 seconds....( 14 tables) ....happening so fast, I miss most of them....

(And NO, this does not include $$ won from NOR+/4D regular play @ casinos all over town)

Hope none of you work for the IRS....

YIKES!!!

kachatz, how many times in a row have you lost at most playing the twist, and are you following the prog with reduced risk as ellis was suggesting?

thanks

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Most lost or won in a row has been 9

Goes pretty much like this:

WWLLWLLLWLLWWWLWLLWWWLL ( etc etc)

Shoe to shoe, table to table, casino to casino...All played as if one big, long baccarat game, never ends

Ellis is right. He is correct.

I have been fortunate to only have experienced 9 losses in a row so far, from which I subsequently recovered. And that was on my $25 unit play.

( I have 3 TWISTS going....)

#1 is $100 unit value

#2 is $ 50 unit value

# 3 is $25 unit value

So far, still playing all U1D1M2

BUT, Ellis is right! There are ways to make the progression, any progression, less risky....or more risky.

Just like there are ways to increase/ or diminish, your Player ROI% , using different methods of play, or just not knowing what to do in the first place...

That's the important part about reading, and re-reading the threads on this forum...not only will the lightbulb turn on in your head many, many times...often over something you read 2-3 years ago, and are now re-reading,

But even better is pretty soon you will be playing the best Baccarat you have ever played, and winning more $$ in the process...And that's what we are playing this game for...at least most of us, I am certain.

( try it for a few days, read some old threads, look for those Golden Nuggets, figure out how poor -play can put you between a Hard Rock and some other place, and discover how consistent winning is not just a Mirage...)

And then report back to the forum what you have learned.

I'm confident you will be surprised that the playing tips, techniques and winning strategies are right there, and have been all along...

I wish you all the best...and the willingness to take the time to realize you can, and will become a better player in the process.

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Most lost or won in a row has been 9

Goes pretty much like this:

WWLLWLLLWLLWWWLWLLWWWLL ( etc etc)

Shoe to shoe, table to table, casino to casino...All played as if one big, long baccarat game, never ends

Ellis is right. He is correct.

I have been fortunate to only have experienced 9 losses in a row so far, from which I subsequently recovered. And that was on my $25 unit play.

( I have 3 TWISTS going....)

#1 is $100 unit value

#2 is $ 50 unit value

# 3 is $25 unit value

So far, still playing all U1D1M2

BUT, Ellis is right! There are ways to make the progression, any progression, less risky....or more risky.

Just like there are ways to increase/ or diminish, your Player ROI% , using different methods of play, or just not knowing what to do in the first place...

That's the important part about reading, and re-reading the threads on this forum...not only will the lightbulb turn on in your head many, many times...often over something you read 2-3 years ago, and are now re-reading,

But even better is pretty soon you will be playing the best Baccarat you have ever played, and winning more $$ in the process...And that's what we are playing this game for...at least most of us, I am certain.

( try it for a few days, read some old threads, look for those Golden Nuggets, figure out how poor -play can put you between a Hard Rock and some other place, and discover how consistent winning is not just a Mirage...)

And then report back to the forum what you have learned.

I'm confident you will be surprised that the playing tips, techniques and winning strategies are right there, and have been all along...

I wish you all the best...and the willingness to take the time to realize you can, and will become a better player in the process.

Kevin have you thought about posting your Red Rock shoe for the world to see? I mean it's no 3D100, but it has the inner workings of all systems up to this current state. I think some members can benefit from it. Your impressive bankroll can prove it.

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Kevin have you thought about posting your Red Rock shoe for the world to see? I mean it's no 3D100, but it has the inner workings of all systems up to this current state. I think some members can benefit from it. Your impressive bankroll can prove it.

Brendan-

When I offered to send that complete shoe breakdown to any NOR member who would PM me their email address, I actually received over 20 responses to which I sent the shoe, and exactly how/ why I played every single hand using what I call NOR+/4D

I also responded to any NOR member if they wanted to call me, I would explain to them anything they wanted to talk about that shoe, the way/ reason I played it the way I did, and How THE TWIST figured into my play

I ended up talking to about 15 private forum members, some of them multiple times...

My offer still stands, for any NOR member ( not public forum members, since they are likely not completely knowledgeable of NOR+, or the 4D discussion..)

Brendan, the reason I did not post was at the time, Ellis' seminar was coming up, the 100 shoes-won-in-a-row miracle was about to become the topic of the forum as opposed to 4D, and since I record things in a whole different way than Ellis teaches, I felt it would be too confusing to most members without them calling me so I could explain.

Since then, Ellis ( and many members) concluded that 4D is just too much to keep up with @ casino speed, and has determined that the 5-unit /shoe approach is more achievable/ teachable to NOR private forum members and the 4D discussion has all but gone away.

I do not disagree, he is right ! THE 5 is easier to explain/ easier to comprehend...

At the same time, I still play " my version " of NOR+/4D whenever I play, and coupled with THE TWIST , I am playing the best I have ever played, with the best results...

Likely easier for me because I have been playing NOR+/3D for several years ( just did not include the OO/TT comparison, and never contemplated evaluating the Least Disparities until Ellis started discussing them..)

Now I do incorporate them in my play...

So, again any NOR member wants to PM me, I'll send them the RedRock shoe with all explanations, and any questions will be answered they want by phone ( I simply have not enough time to type so many explanations, because I would rather spend my " casino-time" making $$ !), the offer still stands...

Been in Denver and Florida last 5 days, so have not posted lately, but soon will be back at it.

Hope this helps!

Regards,

Kevin

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Hello Kevin,

Would you mind commenting on how you apply your three tiered? unit sizes?

Do you stagger them?

Or just go by random application based on mood?

Do you run three at the same time?

Just wondering if you found any sound application that gives you

a better win rate.

Oh and please feel free to entertain us with some movie or musical references

in your response, as I find the true value in any day to be a smile.

As usual, THANK YOU !!!!!!!

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Hello Kevin,

Would you mind commenting on how you apply your three tiered? unit sizes?

Do you stagger them?

Or just go by random application based on mood?

Do you run three at the same time?

Just wondering if you found any sound application that gives you

a better win rate.

Oh and please feel free to entertain us with some movie or musical references

in your response, as I find the true value in any day to be a smile.

As usual, THANK YOU !!!!!!!

An EZ question, a simple answer.

I use those 3 unit sizes as they tend to be the minimum table bet amounts , depending on the casino, depending on the time of day/ day of week.

Keep track of where I stand in the progression all 3 on a single card....I just cut off the casino name, so it is " harmless" to carry casino-to-casino

-----when one of the rows $25, $50, $100 runs out of space, just post the cumulative results ( where you stand in the progression, and what the next bet should be) as of that time, to a new card and keep going...

YES, it is basically random, except as dictated by min table bet size and EZ to spot the best opps for higher wager amounts once you get into it....

The consistency comes from 3-or-more on P/B side, then a switch to the other side for 1 play, then auto-bet back to the " strong-side.

I have told you I am NOT a mathematician. U1D1M2 just plain works.

Ellis has pointed out its risks and rewards. it is up to each of us to know our bankroll, and our tolerance for risk...

And, like we have observed, can we learn to " shepherd" the reward?

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Mr. Davis (and any/all math guys),

If the baccarat math of long term play is irrrrrrrr-refutable, And 50 percent of

all results are ones, etc. etc. ... Is there any mathematical proof

that thise percentages can be skewed long term by shuffle manipulation at lets say

the same casino?

For instance, if casino A is shuffling a certain way, or at least always manipulating their shuffles, AND I only play every game at casino A, because maybe I like their buffet the best or I am stalking a certain cocktail waitress or something, would then the long rerm math of

1's,2's,3's etc be skewed for me?

This is actually a serious question that I would like the answer to please.

I am working on something that requires the above answer. (Sort of a

horse WITH a name)(name yet to be decided)

Thank youse all.

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Mr. Davis (and any/all math guys),

If the baccarat math of long term play is irrrrrrrr-refutable, And 50 percent of

all results are ones, etc. etc. ... Is there any mathematical proof

that thise percentages can be skewed long term by shuffle manipulation at lets say

the same casino?

For instance, if casino A is shuffling a certain way, or at least always manipulating their shuffles, AND I only play every game at casino A, because maybe I like their buffet the best or I am stalking a certain cocktail waitress or something, would then the long rerm math of

1's,2's,3's etc be skewed for me?

This is actually a serious question that I would like the answer to please.

I am working on something that requires the above answer. (Sort of a

horse WITH a name)(name yet to be decided)

Thank youse all.

Funny you should ask this, kramden. I was thinking the EXACT same thing last night while at the casino.

Yes, theoretically half of all outcomes are ones over the long term. But, as you know already, that does not hold water on a per-shoe basis. Can it? Yes, but there is variance in there. Some shoes could be TT strong, long SS runs, etc.

One possible weak area for the Twist I see is this:

If you play wandering tables looking for 3 iar min setups for the opp then opp Twist bet you COULD get caught in the "repeat vortex" where each independent shoe you're watching just happens to go opp then same after the 3 iar min set up.

I observed last night between two tables where, had I applied the Twist playing both tables simultaneously, as the 3 iar min set ups occurred I would have had 5 consecutive losses.

Just food for thought.....

Regards,

Glenn

"Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine per cent perspiration...do your homework" Thomas A. Edison

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Funny you should ask this, kramden. I was thinking the EXACT same thing last night while at the casino.

Yes, theoretically half of all outcomes are ones over the long term. But, as you know already, that does not hold water on a per-shoe basis. Can it? Yes, but there is variance in there. Some shoes could be TT strong, long SS runs, etc.

One possible weak area for the Twist I see is this:

If you play wandering tables looking for 3 iar min setups for the opp then opp Twist bet you COULD get caught in the "repeat vortex" where each independent shoe you're watching just happens to go opp then same after the 3 iar min set up.

I observed last night between two tables where, had I applied the Twist playing both tables simultaneously, as the 3 iar min set ups occurred I would have had 5 consecutive losses.

Just food for thought.....

Speaking of food, did I fail to mention that the attainment of any long term advantage from random selection of when/where to play THE TWIST is " invertionally - proportionate" to the quality of that Casino's Buffet?

Or, that the mere act of chasing tail in any Casino, other than the tail-end of a long streak, favoring tha B/P....or a strong, long ZZ or TT " run" , produces results counter-intuitive to the 50/50 rule?

Kramden and Quizzy...both good questions....

But, what defines " TheLongRun"?

There simply is no mathematically-irrefutable answer on which to base an answer.

BUT, do NOT ever forget the advantages the Player holds over the Casino...."whether they employ shuffle manipulation" ( Kramden) or just being in the wrong place at the wrong time ( Quizzical)

Had myself a shoe last night was the following:

P2233324143323113.... One look at the first 40 plays, and EZ to C that straight application of a 3+/1, then switch approach to TheTwist would've got me killed, at least for the moment.

BUT, a good NOR+/4D approach " exposed" many favorable betting opportunities offering high disparity.

Very, very few shoes so short in 1IAR over 40 plays, and so heavy in 3IAR, but, we all know it can and will/does happen...

So YES, I backed off on the TWIST about halfway in, And YES I took advantage of the OTBL/OO disparities being high, and to a lesser extent P and R.

A GREAT shoe, including THE TWIST?

NOT.

But a shoe I can live through and have learned to adjust to?

ABSOLUTELY.

NOTHING is fail safe, nothing assures an automatic "WIN"

But discussions of conspiracy theory, whether it be caused by ShuffleMaster manipulation or otherwise, or Casino favoritism towards those predisposed to a good buffet, or pretty women?

I'll have to leave to Ellis.

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Speaking of food, did I fail to mention that the attainment of any long term advantage from random selection of when/where to play THE TWIST is " invertionally - proportionate" to the quality of that Casino's Buffet?

Or, that the mere act of chasing tail in any Casino, other than the tail-end of a long streak, favoring tha B/P....or a strong, long ZZ or TT " run" , produces results counter-intuitive to the 50/50 rule?

Kramden and Quizzy...both good questions....

But, what defines " TheLongRun"?

There simply is no mathematically-irrefutable answer on which to base an answer.

BUT, do NOT ever forget the advantages the Player holds over the Casino...."whether they employ shuffle manipulation" ( Kramden) or just being in the wrong place at the wrong time ( Quizzical)

Had myself a shoe last night was the following:

P2233324143323113.... One look at the first 40 plays, and EZ to C that straight application of a 3+/1, then switch approach to TheTwist would've got me killed, at least for the moment.

BUT, a good NOR+/4D approach " exposed" many favorable betting opportunities offering high disparity.

Very, very few shoes so short in 1IAR over 40 plays, and so heavy in 3IAR, but, we all know it can and will/does happen...

So YES, I backed off on the TWIST about halfway in, And YES I took advantage of the OTBL/OO disparities being high, and to a lesser extent P and R.

A GREAT shoe, including THE TWIST?

NOT.

But a shoe I can live through and have learned to adjust to?

ABSOLUTELY.

NOTHING is fail safe, nothing assures an automatic "WIN"

But discussions of conspiracy theory, whether it be caused by ShuffleMaster manipulation or otherwise, or Casino favoritism towards those predisposed to a good buffet, or pretty women?

I'll have to leave to Ellis.

Nice post Kevin,

Question: at what point in the shoe did you decide to abandon the Twist (i.e. what is your stop-loss tolerance)?

Regards,

Glenn

"Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine per cent perspiration...do your homework" Thomas A. Edison

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Had myself a shoe last night was the following:

P2233324143323113.... One look at the first 40 plays, and EZ to C that straight application of a 3+/1, then switch approach to TheTwist would've got me killed, at least for the moment. GREAT shoe, including THE TWIST?

NOT.

You've got to be kidding me!

For the millionth time:

OTB4LM2 likes: Single ones, All 2s and All 3s.

OTB4LM3 likes Single 1's, double 1's, 2s, 3s and 4s

THIS is very decidedly an OTB4LM3 shoe which likes every single event in this shoe.

It wins 24 out of 35 bets.

if you start at play 2 and bet U1D1M2 it scores +30 at play 36

But if you do like your NOR manual says and bet a 345 because you are winning such a huge % of you first bets, it scores +48 at play 36.

If you play the twist as I advised just yesterday - on the high count - you KILL rather than get killed.

If you play it the best way - 345 plus the twist on the high count, you make 78 units on this half of a shoe.

You guys should see this at a glance. When you do a table search, this is exactly the kind of thing that you should be noticing on the tote boards.

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You've got to be kidding me!

For the millionth time:

OTB4LM2 likes: Single ones, All 2s and All 3s.

OTB4LM3 likes Single 1's, double 1's, 2s, 3s and 4s

THIS is very decidedly an OTB4LM3 shoe which likes every single event in this shoe.

It wins 24 out of 35 bets.

if you start at play 2 and bet U1D1M2 it scores +30 at play 36

But if you do like your NOR manual says and bet a 345 because you are winning such a huge % of you first bets, it scores +48 at play 36.

If you play the twist as I advised just yesterday - on the high count - you KILL rather than get killed.

If you play it the best way - 345 plus the twist on the high count, you make 78 units on this half of a shoe.

You guys should see this at a glance. When you do a table search, this is exactly the kind of thing that you should be noticing on the tote boards.

Ellis-

good to C U are chiming in...

its your forum.

You are the math whiz.

someone has got to set them up.

someone has got to knock' them down..

old Bowling analogy...

Good to see you are " riled up" ... ( That " seems2me", when you are at your best. That is when you seem "on fire", and have the most impact on our membership..).

Just IMHO.

But that is when it seems they are "getting it" most...

(And if not, this is when they will ask the really good questions...)

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