Traceys Casino Niagra shoe

[CdnChamer]

I guess it's time to do my discourse on flat betting again.

Look, for the 500th time: The ONLY time you are better off flat betting is when you are losing. That is pure mathematical fact.

But Ellis, "I'm going to net bet normally except I'm going to always bet 1 unit regardless of what the net bet calls for."

Sure OK except you have guaranteed a LOSS. Mathematically GUARANTEED a loss. Look, high side net betting ALWAYS puts you on the side winning the least. ALLfreakingWAYS. No ifs ands or buts about it. Therefore if you flat bet net betting you lose - mathematically guaranteed.

But Ellis,"If I flat bet all I have to do is win more than half the hands".

Yeah great RXCEPT that if you win more than half the hands you ALWAYS win more with the right progression. ALLfreakingWAYS. That's simple math.

Again: You win every other hand for 20 plays: Great, you matched the normal game odds of the game.

If you flat, your score is ZERO.

If you bet a simple 1,2 prog, your score is +10.

Which do you prefer?

Look, watch my lips: flat betting is for losers. Always has been, always will be. NO player has EVER consistently beat this game flat betting. NONE, no time, EVER. Do you get it? MANY have tried. None ever succeeded. NONE, NADA, ZERO!

I've seen situation where flat betting. Believe or not ... Outperformed a progression as a prog digs deeper and on U1D2 can happen whereas U1D1 may be different and can all depend on what step of the progg you are at.

Even a progg can lose when you have more wins than losses. It's the successive losses that bury you.

CC

[Golfgirl007]

Ellis Shoe #5.pdf

Ellis, I have been studying your play of shoe #5 posted above. And I have a few questions.

1) On play #29, the OR count is hovering over -9 and -10 over the last 6 plays. Why did you not change your betting system to OTB4L when you saw the direction that the OR count had taken?

2) At play #39, the OR count rose from -15 to -8 in 8 hands. Why did you not change your betting system to SD40 when you saw the direction that the OR count had taken?

Thank you and I hope you are keeping well!

[Golfgirl007]

Ellis, can you please explain to me what the difference is between mode 2 and mode 3 when playing system F on a streak shoe?

[Guest]

Ellis, can you please explain to me what the difference is between mode 2 and mode 3 when playing system F on a streak shoe?

Sure. It means the same as it always means:

Mode 2 means attempt changing sides after 2 losses on the side you are on.

Mode 3 means attempt changing sides after 3 losses on the side you are on.

The reason I use the word "attempt" is because if you lose the first bet on the new side you switch right back - that keeps you on the Strong Side which is the whole point of the F system.

As you study and learn more, you will see that we have recently dropped F2 in favor of S40M1 because S40M1 does much better on shoes with runs on BOTH sides. BUT, we keep F3 because it is the best for SS Strong Sided shoes often producing our highest scores in such shoes.

S40M1 is not in your manual. It particularly likes streaky shoes with both ST Straight runs and ZZ runs. It hates 2s so we only play it in shoes low in 2s. Normal 2s are one every 8 plays. When we lose the bet under a 2 we stop betting to avoid any run of 2s - a (TT run). Once any TT run breaks, we restart our betting at ONE unit. Also once ON a run we stay on it because we got on it so early - unless the shoe at hand proves otherwise.

I'll save you from having to look for S40M1. It is the simplest system there is and it's exacrtly how it sounds. You bet opposites with a 1,2 prog and go OTR (ON the straight run) after ONE losing bet. So your 2 bet is always OTR. When it misses, go right back to opposites AFTER waiting for any TT run.

So you never bet more than 2. When you lose the 1 bet under a straight run, you don't go to 2 - you start over at 1.

In the +5 approach, I'll show you an even more conservative way of playing it that pretty much guarantees +5 with nearly no risk.

[Golfgirl007]

Excellent answer! You are a great teacher. thank you. You mentioned the +5 approach. What does that mean? Are you reffering to NOR (it's 3 systems) and the concept of a +5 stop loss/win ?