Traceys Casino Niagra shoe

[BaccDJ126]

OK Tracey i played this shoe P11221124423 That is the way you post the shoe here. and i did it the way i normally play in S40M3 and made +5 +6 on hands 8 & 9 and i'm out but continued it for you!! S40M2 also won +5 and +6 in hands 7 & 8 and S40M1 only got to 4 but i'm not 100% sure i did the M1 correctly guys please chime in i have no problem in M2 and M3 why cant i get M1 lol anyway i know you lost big Tracey but hopefully you see how i did this and if you have any questions ask ill oe any of the members will help!!

[Golfgirl007]

Hello everyone, here is my shoe from Casino Niagara in Niagara Falls, Canada. Can you please all chime in and tell me how YOU would have played this shoe compared to how I played it? I am new to NOR and need all the feed back you veterans can offer! Thank you for your help, greatlyey apprecaited!

[kachatz1]

[ATTACH]2878[/ATTACH] Hello everyone, here is my shoe from Casino Niagara in Niagara Falls, Canada. Can you please all chime in and tell me how YOU would have played this shoe compared to how I played it? I am new to NOR and need all the feed back you veterans can offer! Thank you for your help, greatlyey apprecaited!

GolferG-

I won't rehash a shoe that "once you see it, all played out" , it's way easier to decide how to approach/play...seems to me BaccDJ did a good job of that. And your forum friends are here to work on all aspects of your game...

But if you are beginning your journey down the NOR YellowBrickRoad, just want to point out we ALL make mistakes, even after many years of play, and you best mind a reasonable stop loss if you want to survive until your next Double Eagle on the links..

That minus -6 right near the beginning is a sure sign of unfortunate system selection, too early to enter the shoe, Bad table selection, or maybe just bad Karma...( and never, ever play golf , or Baccarat, with a girl named Karma!!)

There are many pieces to baccarat success, and maintaining the discipline to adhere to a well defined stop-loss is just one of them...

I will leave the play selection to the technicians on the forum...

GOOD LUCK 2U!

[Wendel]

[ATTACH]2878[/ATTACH] Hello everyone, here is my shoe from Casino Niagara in Niagara Falls, Canada. Can you please all chime in and tell me how YOU would have played this shoe compared to how I played it? I am new to NOR and need all the feed back you veterans can offer! Thank you for your help, greatlyey apprecaited!

Hi Tracy,

Actually, I thought that although you got in pretty deep early you managed it quite well.

This shoe is not easy to play.

But, you may not be aware of the refinement that has been made to mode selection

and is buried somewhere in the forum.

if the o/r count is greater than 0 (+) play mode 3

if the o/r count is zero or - play mode 2

Had you done that you would have beaten the first 4 iar and lost to the following 3 iar,

but the rest of the shoe may have gone better. I haven't played it yet.

and, as the previous poster has said it is easy to play a shoe after the fact,

but I would try it using the above rule for selecting mode

Wendel.

[topstep1]

GolferG-

I won't rehash a shoe that "once you see it, all played out" , it's way easier to decide how to approach/play...seems to me BaccDJ did a good job of that. And your forum friends are here to work on all aspects of your game...

But if you are beginning your journey down the NOR YellowBrickRoad, just want to point out we ALL make mistakes, even after many years of play, and you best mind a reasonable stop loss if you want to survive until your next Double Eagle on the links..

That minus -6 right near the beginning is a sure sign of unfortunate system selection, too early to enter the shoe, Bad table selection, or maybe just bad Karma...( and never, ever play golf , or Baccarat, with a girl named Karma!!)

There are many pieces to baccarat success, and maintaining the discipline to adhere to a well defined stop-loss is just one of them...

I will leave the play selection to the technicians on the forum...

GOOD LUCK 2U!

One thing I've notice, what ever happen to waiting 10 to 15 hands or more before starting a shoe to see what kind of patterns develop ? Did professor

Ellis tell everyone to throw that rule out the window , I'm noticing a lot of players are starting right at the start of the shoe , I found that when I started at

the beginning of the shoe I was in the hole by the time the SWEET SPOT CAME. Wait till the shoe develops a pattern you recognize , there is no

need to be in a rush , I did the same thing and when I did that I was always digging my-self out of the hole on the sweet spot and breaking even or getting

just a couple of units ahead by the end of the shoe , also if you lose 2 or 3 bets in a row , BET ZERO till your zero bets start winning then go back

to real money . Also I notice you got up to +15 right towards the end of the shoe and gave it back , WHY? YOU'RE AT THE END OF THE SHOE

My thing is , It took 50 maybe 60 something plays to get to +15, lock up +10 to +12 , you've milked all you can out of that shoe BELIEVE ME.

Don't risk 15 units at the end of the shoe for another what maybe 3 or 4 units , its not worth it.

[Wendel]

p.s.

The enhanced rule for zz runs is exactly opposite to ST runs

for zz runs

if the o/r count is greater than 0 (+) play mode 2

if the o/r count is zero or - play mode 3

[Golfgirl007]

Thank you so much for your advice! I will apply it as I practice and learn more.

[Golfgirl007]

Thank you Wendel! That was great information you gave me! Do you think I should have selected F system or OTB4L before I started playing the shoe instead of the S40 that I used?

[Golfgirl007]

GREAT ADVICE!! Thanks for all your keen observations. I will apply them all as I practice. I am keeping a note book of all the advice I get from all the forum members. I will practice much more before heading back to a live casino. Thank you again!!

[Wendel]

Thank you Wendel! That was great information you gave me! Do you think I should have selected F system or OTB4L before I started playing the shoe instead of the S40 that I used?

I think that you did quite well with S40. Starting where you did, the appropriate choice was S40.

If you had waited a dozen hands or so , you may have chosen OTB4L , but I am not sure you would have done any better.

I wouldn't have chosen F for sure. I seldom play F , but when I do I probably will have switched someplace mid shoe.

[Golfgirl007]

Would you have played with OTB4L or F and not S40 that I selected?

[Golfgirl007]

Got it, thanks for adding that!

[trbfla]

Would you have played with OTB4L or F and not S40 that I selected?

GG,

There is an abundance of 2s that showed up around play 15...might be a sign to start playing otb4l or at least monitor it for the time being... but that's easy to say after the shoe has been played and its all exposed.

[Golfgirl007]

Thanks for that. I will run the shoe a dozen hands in and start with OTB4L and see if the outcome is different than S40.

[Golfgirl007]

Good observation, I am going to run OTB4L and compare it to S40. I need to learn to notice those 2's and switch systems or just wait it out-patience, patience!!

[Guest]

Hang on, I'll play it for you.

[Guest]

This could be the longest shoe in the history of Baccarat???

I think this casino is still regular cards so we are thinking NOR and hoping to go to NOR+

The OR count is going nowhere so we are thinking OTB4L and looking for a good place to start.

There is an early 3, ideal to start OTB4L so we start at play 6.

That way the only thing that can beat me is a 6+. Very unlikely.

All goes well to play 13. The OR count is so nonexistent so far so as to be virtually meaningless. So I go to the next best indicator. There have been no triple 1's in this shoe thus far. In fact the first double has just occurred this play. So I decide NOT to bet on a triple 1 at play 14. It is a very close call and you might well have gone for the triple. But, no worries, you would have lost the 3 but won the 4,2 and come out just fine.

Our next decision comes up at play 32. A 0 OR count is mode 2 because thats usually cheapest. We win so we try one more OTR since we are in Mode 2 but it loses so next time we won't try. (play 45)

Clear sailing all the way to the first 7iar. I don't attempt a 2nd OTR because it wouldn't have worked last time. But I'm wrong so the next run I stay OTR for 2 bets.

Either way 7s can't hurt you. See that? Just play them by the book.

So, an ideal shoe. +49 with a highest bet of 3.

Had I made the mistake of starting with S40 I definitely would have switched to OTB4L when it started raining 2s. BUT, see all those zeros in the OR count? That is definitely OTB4L no matter what 2s are doing.

[Golfgirl007]

Ellis, YOU ARE AMAZING!! thank you ever so much for taking the time and energy to play my score card for me. You are very sweet and I appreciate you. The lessons that I have learned from you in just 1 shoe are invaluable. I shall commit to more practice before I set foot in a casino!! The more I read your words of wisdom, the more I realize how much I don't know!! Big hug and much thanks.

[CdnChamer]

[ATTACH]2880[/ATTACH]

This could be the longest shoe in the history of Baccarat???

I think this casino is still regular cards so we are thinking NOR and hoping to go to NOR+

The OR count is going nowhere so we are thinking OTB4L and looking for a good place to start.

There is an early 3, ideal to start OTB4L so we start at play 6.

That way the only thing that can beat me is a 6+. Very unlikely.

All goes well to play 13. The OR count is so nonexistent so far so as to be virtually meaningless. So I go to the next best indicator. There have been no triple 1's in this shoe thus far. In fact the first double has just occurred this play. So I decide NOT to bet on a triple 1 at play 14. It is a very close call and you might well have gone for the triple. But, no worries, you would have lost the 3 but won the 4,2 and come out just fine.

Our next decision comes up at play 32. A 0 OR count is mode 2 because thats usually cheapest. We win so we try one more OTR since we are in Mode 2 but it loses so next time we won't try. (play 45)

Clear sailing all the way to the first 7iar. I don't attempt a 2nd OTR because it wouldn't have worked last time. But I'm wrong so the next run I stay OTR for 2 bets.

Either way 7s can't hurt you. See that? Just play them by the book.

So, an ideal shoe. +49 with a highest bet of 3.

Had I made the mistake of starting with S40 I definitely would have switched to OTB4L when it started raining 2s. BUT, see all those zeros in the OR count? That is definitely OTB4L no matter what 2s are doing.

From my information about niagara is they are pre-shuffled shoes and 4D would be +5 at hand 16 using 2hi betting, and if you flat bet for a target of +3, you'd be out at hand 14

If you had played longer, flat betting hit a +9 units at hand 72 and low of -1. If you used U1D2, +25 but I don't care about high numbers, I like +5 for million $ plan.

CC

[Guest]

From my information about niagara is they are pre-shuffled shoes and 4D would be +5 at hand 16 using 2hi betting, and if you flat bet for a target of +3, you'd be out at hand 14

If you had played longer, flat betting hit a +9 units at hand 72 and low of -1. If you used U1D2, +25 but I don't care about high numbers, I like +5 for million $ plan.

CC

Right CC, I noticed that too, this shoe does well either way +5 or NOR. I thought about also posting it played +5 playing BaOTB4L. The only difference is all the 3 bets would have been 1 bets so I would have scored 16 units less or +33 if I stuck to 2Hi.

But with 30+ years of experience, sooner or later I would have noticed that I'm winning ALL of the 3rd bets and I would have gone to normal 3 bets instead of 1 bets. But more importantly, around play 18, I would have noticed that I'm winning most of my FIRST bets so I would have considered it my duty to advance to the LESS RISKY 345 progression, per the NOR manual. At one point we are actually ten 1 bets ahead. (that is 20 units) Personally I would have won about 60 units in this shoe just following the NOR manual. At some point ANY skilled BTC player would have noticed that he is in one of those very common perfect OTB4L shoes and played it accordingly.

All casinos preshuffle. Some use their own card prep starting with regular cards and some buy their cards already preshuffled from the factory. The question is how did the cards at THIS casino start out - Factory preshuffled or regular sealed individual 8 decks. Some say it makes no difference. I KNOW different. It makes a HUGE difference. Factory preshuffled hardly ever follow the same bias all the way through. Regular cards usually do.

BUT as I've said before, after about 3 shuffles (3 shoes using the same cards) it no longer makes any difference how the cards started out. They settle down to whatever bias they settle down to.

Unfortunately, the casinos know this too. That is precisely why Vegas casinos change no touch cards every 4 hours (every third shoe). Ain't that clever?

I'm trying to teach the members here to be Professional Baccarat players, to know the conditions they face and play accordingly.

Personally I would NEVER play a casino without first knowing and examining the precise conditions I face whether Baccarat or BJ. No more than I would play golf ignoring the wind conditions.

Also as I've said many times before: the problem with playing shoes on the forum is we have taken the shoe out of context of casino conditions. All we can do is play what we see - which is exactly what I did here. No, I didn't advance to the 345 as I would have in a casino because my objective here was merely to demonstrate basic NOR to a novice player trying her best to learn basic NOR. If I got fancy with all the tricks of the trade, I would have lost her attention and done more harm than good.

Ultimately we play what we see. When we see strength in a bias, we play it. When we don't, we back off to +5. Get it? That's what +5 is for!

[Guest]

I guess it's time to do my discourse on flat betting again.

Look, for the 500th time: The ONLY time you are better off flat betting is when you are losing. That is pure mathematical fact.

But Ellis, "I'm going to net bet normally except I'm going to always bet 1 unit regardless of what the net bet calls for."

Sure OK except you have guaranteed a LOSS. Mathematically GUARANTEED a loss. Look, high side net betting ALWAYS puts you on the side winning the least. ALLfreakingWAYS. No ifs ands or buts about it. Therefore if you flat bet net betting you lose - mathematically guaranteed.

But Ellis,"If I flat bet all I have to do is win more than half the hands".

Yeah great RXCEPT that if you win more than half the hands you ALWAYS win more with the right progression. ALLfreakingWAYS. That's simple math.

Again: You win every other hand for 20 plays: Great, you matched the normal game odds of the game.

If you flat, your score is ZERO.

If you bet a simple 1,2 prog, your score is +10.

Which do you prefer?

Look, watch my lips: flat betting is for losers. Always has been, always will be. NO player has EVER consistently beat this game flat betting. NONE, no time, EVER. Do you get it? MANY have tried. None ever succeeded. NONE, NADA, ZERO!

[Guest]

There are some interesting flat bet exceptions for the mathematically clever:

SAP for one but it must be played correctly. and virtually no one plays it correctly. Virtually All the SAP players know to bet against least common events and ON the most common events. Good but that is only half of SAP. The part they don't get is events running normal. It is a VERY good bet to also bet toward normal on events running normal. That way you have a good flat bet system.

Another entirely different flat bet opportunity is to net bet low side (place your bet on the side of the lowest entry instead of the highest entry). I could never get this to work betting a progression. But flat betting it is a whole different story.

See, just as net betting on the high side always puts you on the side winning the least, low side net betting ALWAYS puts you on the side winningt the MOST often - ALWAYS.

THEREFORE: If you net bet low side, no matter what you net bet, you are eventually always up 1 unit at some point. It's just one of those math peculiarities. Nobody ever paid it any mind before because it is just ONE unit.

BUT, what if you are betting $10,000 units?!?!?

So, instead of net betting the lowest disparity high side shooting for +5, you would net bet the highest disparity low side shooting for +1.

So, if you want to experiment with flat betting.....

Interested?

Let me give you an example:

Let's say you are going to simply net bet PvB right from play #1 for 5 plays.

What is the worst thing that could possibly happen from a disparity stand point. A 5iar, Right?

OK, lets see what happens if we net bet low side and the shoe starts with 5 players.

OK, our P entries are 11111, right?

Our B entries are 12345, right?

Got that so far?

OK each play we do our net bet thing and subtract the low entry from the high entry and table bet the difference.

Fine, except now we are going to place our bet on the side of the LOW entry instead of the high entry. Got it?

Fine, try it. You are already +1 at play 2. Do not pass GO. Collect $10,000. Your commission is ZERO.

Got your attention now?

How did I do that?

FIRST, determine which of the 4 disparities is the HIGHEST disparity rather than the lowest.

That should take you about a dozen plays or so.

Then net bet the highest disparity placing your bet on the side of the lowest entry instead of the highest.

Quit at +1.

That's it.

OK, go out and do that and send me $5000.

Today if possible.

[Guest]

So OK, I lied a little bit. You actually need to bet a progression.

But you are betting on the FACT that regardless what you are net betting one side or the other MUST get ahead at some point. They can't stay even forever especially if you are betting the highest disparity in the first place. As soon as one side gets ahead, you don't care which side, you win 1 unit.

Try it. You'll soon see. I think.

No, I haven't gotten into the Scotch. But I'm thinking about it!

So what does your progression need to be???

You figure it out. I can't be doing everything around here.

[kachatz1]

There are some interesting flat bet exceptions for the mathematically clever:

SAP for one but it must be played correctly. and virtually no one plays it correctly. Virtually All the SAP players know to bet against least common events and ON the most common events. Good but that is only half of SAP. The part they don't get is events running normal. It is a VERY good bet to also bet toward normal on events running normal. That way you have a good flat bet system.

Another entirely different flat bet opportunity is to net bet low side (place your bet on the side of the lowest entry instead of the highest entry). I could never get this to work betting a progression. But flat betting it is a whole different story.

See, just as net betting on the high side always puts you on the side winning the least, low side net betting ALWAYS puts you on the side winningt the MOST often - ALWAYS.

THEREFORE: If you net bet low side, no matter what you net bet, you are eventually always up 1 unit at some point. It's just one of those math peculiarities. Nobody ever paid it any mind before because it is just ONE unit.

BUT, what if you are betting $10,000 units?!?!?

So, instead of net betting the lowest disparity high side shooting for +5, you would net bet the highest disparity low side shooting for +1.

So, if you want to experiment with flat betting.....

Interested?

Let me give you an example:

Let's say you are going to simply net bet PvB right from play #1 for 5 plays.

What is the worst thing that could possibly happen from a disparity stand point. A 5iar, Right?

OK, lets see what happens if we net bet low side and the shoe starts with 5 players.

OK, our P entries are 11111, right?

Our B entries are 12345, right?

Got that so far?

OK each play we do our net bet thing and subtract the low entry from the high entry and table bet the difference.

Fine, except now we are going to place our bet on the side of the LOW entry instead of the high entry. Got it?

Fine, try it. You are already +1 at play 2. Do not pass GO. Collect $10,000. Your commission is ZERO.

Got your attention now?

How did I do that?

FIRST, determine which of the 4 disparities is the HIGHEST disparity rather than the lowest.

That should take you about a dozen plays or so.

Then net bet the highest disparity placing your bet on the side of the lowest entry instead of the highest.

Quit at +1.

That's it.

OK, go out and do that and send me $5000.

Today if possible.

Good to see you came to a sensible answer re: "FLAT BETTING"

there is a place, and a time, for virtually everything in this game...

example: played last night with a nice man, who counseled me NOT to sit down at that table, based on his losing his bankroll over the last hour, or so. and he was a very conservative bettor...

He was all about the tote board, and the Chinese Charts ( whatever you want to call them) ...said they were " not working", and was getting up to leave the table as I arrived...

I sat down, explained to him a few things about "regression to the mean" , BAC stats, how to interpret the charts, 4D, etc......all as we played together for the next hour or so...

YES, 2 heads ARE better-than-one, and we got all his money back in the course of about 40 minutes...

I left after hitting a reasonable "stop win", and hope I gave him a little more insight than he had before I got there...

Wrote down " beatthecasino.com" on a corner of one of the scorecards, tore it off, and gave it to him...

Will he use a scorecard in the future?

Will he contact/look-at www.beatthecasino.com ?

Hmmmmnnnn.....

For his sake, I hope so...

[CdnChamer]

There are some interesting flat bet exceptions for the mathematically clever:

SAP for one but it must be played correctly. and virtually no one plays it correctly. Virtually All the SAP players know to bet against least common events and ON the most common events. Good but that is only half of SAP. The part they don't get is events running normal. It is a VERY good bet to also bet toward normal on events running normal. That way you have a good flat bet system.

Another entirely different flat bet opportunity is to net bet low side (place your bet on the side of the lowest entry instead of the highest entry). I could never get this to work betting a progression. But flat betting it is a whole different story.

See, just as net betting on the high side always puts you on the side winning the least, low side net betting ALWAYS puts you on the side winningt the MOST often - ALWAYS.

THEREFORE: If you net bet low side, no matter what you net bet, you are eventually always up 1 unit at some point. It's just one of those math peculiarities. Nobody ever paid it any mind before because it is just ONE unit.

BUT, what if you are betting $10,000 units?!?!?

So, instead of net betting the lowest disparity high side shooting for +5, you would net bet the highest disparity low side shooting for +1.

So, if you want to experiment with flat betting.....

Interested?

Let me give you an example:

Let's say you are going to simply net bet PvB right from play #1 for 5 plays.

What is the worst thing that could possibly happen from a disparity stand point. A 5iar, Right?

OK, lets see what happens if we net bet low side and the shoe starts with 5 players.

OK, our P entries are 11111, right?

Our B entries are 12345, right?

Got that so far?

OK each play we do our net bet thing and subtract the low entry from the high entry and table bet the difference.

Fine, except now we are going to place our bet on the side of the LOW entry instead of the high entry. Got it?

Fine, try it. You are already +1 at play 2. Do not pass GO. Collect $10,000. Your commission is ZERO.

Got your attention now?

How did I do that?

FIRST, determine which of the 4 disparities is the HIGHEST disparity rather than the lowest.

That should take you about a dozen plays or so.

Then net bet the highest disparity placing your bet on the side of the lowest entry instead of the highest.

Quit at +1.

That's it.

OK, go out and do that and send me $5000.

Today if possible.

C'mon... It's not nearly this difficult when using a rock solid system like 4D. Met betting is only required when you encounter successive a losses using other system where NOR has trouble.

Like I said this was low -1. And high of +9 flat betting. Fantastic ratio

CC