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Introduction to Million dollar Bac @ +5


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What is the difference between systems..when i read s40 versus BaS40

and OTB4L and BaOTB4L?

I am confused by the "Ba"

bigcash, basically (there's that word again) the only reason we have 3 +5 systems is because you won't always be playing against new preshuffled cards. Sometimes you will be playing against old preshuffled cards and other times against normal cards. I'm trying to give you a way to beat everything you might come up against, all inclusive in the +5 strategy. See, I won't always be teaching NOR players and I don't want to make NOR a prerequisite. I want +5 to be a complete, all inclusive, stand alone approach that can take on all comers under ANY circumstances. I won't be happy until then.

Plus, I don't know yet which system we will be playing predominently. Mathematically I'm guessing BaOTB4L. But I also know you guys pretty darn well at this point. I'm thinking 90% of you will take the easy out just like Ann and I did and stick to BaS40 because it is the easiest to play and it wins so frequently. Sometimes that one extra unit just isn't worth all the extra effort. Staying power is super important when your goal is a million dollars. Look at NORM fcol - One Two buckle my shoe - wake me when it's over.

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Now don't be getting me wrong about Norm. I know he concentrated to the utmost. BUT his whole decision making was when should I throw an extra 1 bet in there and when do I need an extra 2 bet and should I order Scotch or Bourbon? Which explains his ocassional loss. THAT gave him staying power. The guy could play for hours on end. THAT is how he got so close to a million dollars.

Compare that to the 4D player who first needs 17 years of training and then needs to bring a 20 foot scroll to use for a scorecard.

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I don't know what the hell took me so long to figure out what to do about "preshuffled". Enough of you guys were trying to tell me - guys likr bluetri and girls like Witchygal. I just wasn't listening when I should have been totally attentive. I was so involved with health problems all year that landed me in the hospital twice due to my own fault. BUT, better late than never. I need a breakfast break. Yesterday was an 18 hour blitz trying to get all the names for Keith from the sketchy information paypal gives you. I finally ended up going through 40 pages of emails and I STILL missed a couple guys didn't I jim and Gman. Which reminds me: Todd, check your account. It looks to me that you paid twice if I didn't make a mistake in my bewilderment yesterday.

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Fedda
Now don't be getting me wrong about Norm. I know he concentrated to the utmost. BUT his whole decision making was when should I throw an extra 1 bet in there and when do I need an extra 2 bet and should I order Scotch or Bourbon? Which explains his ocassional loss. THAT gave him staying power. The guy could play for hours on end. THAT is how he got so close to a million dollars.

Compare that to the 4D player who first needs 17 years of training and then needs to bring a 20 foot scroll to use for a scorecard.

Talking about Norm, sometimes I go back and read his forum-posts, they are classics and full of knowledge. I miss him, R.I.P.

This +5 strategy could be a kind of dedication to Norm, he's sitting up there and thinking "now they're getting it!"

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trbfla

Ellis.....I think I too was screaming about the preshuffled shoes down here in FLA......add me to the list of people seeing it.....lol .....nothing like Gold Coast...seems PARX may be just like Gold Coast shoes...no matter +5 with 3 systems will kill em here....so ready to go

Yes I paid twice...

I yell "winner winner chicken dinner on all naturals"

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trbfla
bigcash, basically (there's that word again) the only reason we have 3 +5 systems is because you won't always be playing against new preshuffled cards. Sometimes you will be playing against old preshuffled cards and other times against normal cards. I'm trying to give you a way to beat everything you might come up against, all inclusive in the +5 strategy. See, I won't always be teaching NOR players and I don't want to make NOR a prerequisite. I want +5 to be a complete, all inclusive, stand alone approach that can take on all comers under ANY circumstances. I won't be happy until then.

Plus, I don't know yet which system we will be playing predominently. Mathematically I'm guessing BaOTB4L. But I also know you guys pretty darn well at this point. I'm thinking 90% of you will take the easy out just like Ann and I did and stick to BaS40 because it is the easiest to play and it wins so frequently. Sometimes that one extra unit just isn't worth all the extra effort. Staying power is super important when your goal is a million dollars. Look at NORM fcol - One Two buckle my shoe - wake me when it's over.

Does anyone know what the rules are for BaOTB4l????

Im guessing it is like BaS40 played in m1 as well?

I yell "winner winner chicken dinner on all naturals"

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ECD

Hi golfgirl,

Norm played "Follow the Shoe" which consists of playing exploits when they appear in the shoe. These include SS (strong side) OTB4L, LC. MC, ZZ runs and STR runs. We use a 1 unit probing bet to test the exploit and if it "hits", we then use a simple 1-2 looped prog. Anytime his score was negative he only bet 1 unit until it became positive.

That is how Norm played (Me too!) As far as the +5 idea, he would capture +5 once he got above 5, but he didn't stop at 5 if he was still in a winning situation he would go for whatever he could get in the shoe knowing that he would not let his score go below the +5 profit. He used SAP, especially to spot the MC and LC events (which are one time bets, when you see LC or MC you bet the next hand only).

His favorite part of Follow the Shoe was "WHEN IN DOUBT WAIT IT OUT". There are times when you might wait 10 or 15 hands until you see the exploit. THE SHOE WILL TELL YOU WHEN TO BET IF YOU JUST KNOW WHAT TO LOOK FOR.

I just wanted to set things straight about how Norm played. I know this because ever since norm joined the forum we have been working together on how to play; trying to find the way that was stress free and got excellent, consistent results. We played together many times in Tunica, Vegas, and Biloxi.

There was hardly a day that we didn't talk on the phone and play shoes. Norm would call out the shoe one hand at a time and I would tell him how I was betting and I would do the same for him. This way it's the same as playing a shoe that you have never seen before.

Anyone can tell you how to win a shoe that's already been played. What you should have done etc. Hindsight is 20/20. If you want a realistic way to practice team up with a friend and get on the phone and call out shoes to each other one play at a time. That will sharpen you up!

PJ

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Hi Ellis,

Thank you for having this wonderful new forum. I am very excited.

I am a bit confused with the difference of BA OTB4L and OTB4L and BA S40 and S40

I understand the modes and how to apply the modes, but I am not certain about the BA part :)

I am also confused as to the progression within the progression

When we reach a 3 in a row do we bet that it will go to 4 in a row or do we bet that it will stay at 3 in a row.

Thank you :)

Alice

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PurpleInk
S40M1, +5 version:

Well I was't just sitting here waiting for the storm to stop. I was busy with the +5 version of S40M1.

I would like ALL Bac members to read this - both +5 members AND NOR members still contemplating the +5 forum.

OK I selected the shoe somebody just posted that goes:

B294221

B1132111211132

B211211412131

P1111 = 64 plays

The first thing to note is that the OR count goes all the way to -10 in the first col back to +1 in the last col.

So the OR count is NOT dependable. This is typical of "preshuffled cards". In fact one way we could define "preshuffled" is cards that have no dependable OR count. This makes this shoe close to unplayable using NOR but at the same time, highly playable using +5 - in this case +5 S40M1.

Note that this shoe is all over the place: Not only does the OR count completely reverse, it has every other kind of problem too: ST and ZZ runs of varying lengths, TT runs, 212s, periods of SS, sporadic 1's - a real "designer shoe" - a nightmare.

Yet, you will see when I post it on the new +5 forum that the +5 version of S40M1 has no problem with it in spite of the 8 2s. In fact the 8 2s don't bother us at all in this version of S40M1. They would kill the original version of S40M1.

But, while this shoe would be disasterous for NOR, with +5 S40M1 it scores an easy +13 with a highest bet of only 2 an incredibly low 3 times. Yep, only three 2 bets in an entire 64 play shoe. No 3s at all. In fact if we were to quit at our first +5, we would have had ZERO 2 bets. Our highest bet would be 1 unit. I have been around this game for a LONG time and I can tell you for a fact - this is incredible for ANY shoe but it is particularly incredible for such a strange shoe. I can guarantee you - nobody else at the table is going to beat this shoe - NOBODY. Yet we breeze right through it. Such is the power of our +5 strategy! It beats shoes NOBODY else can beat - shoes that would be disasterous for NOR. See that?

OK, Keith just called and told me he has already privatized this forum. Ha, when I said "shortly" I didn't mean THAT shortly. So here's what I will do. I will repost this post thus far in the NOR forum where everyone can see it. But in this forum only I will go ahead and post this shoe played out +5 S40M1. Then in this forum I will do a play by play and explain every bet every play. You will soon see for yourselves how simple and how mechanical this really is and why it is so hard to lose a shoe.

Oh, I will include the OR count just so you can verify how strange this shoe actually is. BUT recognize that NOWHERE do I use the OR count for anything. It is purely FYI. I will put the progs within a progs in red to make them stand out and easy to follow.

While BaS40 uses a prog of 120123, S40M1 uses a prog of 10123. This is because the 0 bet is always placed on your initial OTR bet and M1 goes OTR after only 1 losing bet. That's what M1 means. This may sound a bit complex in words but When you see it in actual play, while different, it is not complex at all and it's just a question of getting used to a brand new strategy.

I don't mean to jump into S40M1 before I finish BaS40. I'm just telling you now to give you an idea of what this new forum will cover. Also, as I did, I think you will find this extremely interesting. So I'm just giving you an early heads up.

[ATTACH]2909[/ATTACH]

I will go over this shoe with you in detail shortly. Right now I need to work on the million dollar member list for Keith.

BTW, of course we won't always be hitting +13 but we don't HAVE to. We are only looking to average +5. But a +13 now and then will greatly help that goal!

Ellis,

Thanks for posting this shoe. Anxiously awaiting your play by play of S40M1 at this post #23.

I was expecting bets 43 and 53 to be extended OTR 1 bets as they are part of winning secondary progression bets. Bet 60 returns to OTR - just trying to see what I'm missing?

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PurpleInk
Hi Ellis,

Thank you for having this wonderful new forum. I am very excited.

I am a bit confused with the difference of BA OTB4L and OTB4L and BA S40 and S40

I understand the modes and how to apply the modes, but I am not certain about the BA part :)

I am also confused as to the progression within the progression

When we reach a 3 in a row do we bet that it will go to 4 in a row or do we bet that it will stay at 3 in a row.

Thank you :)

Alice

IMHO ,

The BA implies that you go on a secondary progression of at least 0123 when your primary progression looses. The 0 determines whether your subsequent secondary progression bets are OTR or ATR.

With BaS40, You are essentially betting that you won't get four 3s before a 4+ or four 4+ before a 3. The 0 bet determines OTR or ATR for your subsequent secondary progression bets.

We are now betting that the shoe is unbiased versus before we would bet for a bias.

You may also choose to make your secondary progression 012358.

BaOT has not been fully covered yet by Ellis but both would have a primary and secondary progression.

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Hi Ellis,

I am excited to see where this is going – just from my original post on Feb. 24th of your ‘How to Make a Million Dollars in 10 Days Plan’ from your manual of almost 20 years ago - to this thread!

I want to provide some insight into both the pre-shuffled cards and the Shufflemaster shuffler. Both use software based Random Number Generator (RNG) to shuffle the cards. These RNGs and their settings (such as seed values) are not allowed to be modified. Both are tested and certified by independent test labs, and by specific jurisdiction Regulator test labs, (for those jurisdictions that do not use the independent test labs for review prior to their product approval). There is no opportunity provided to casino management when ordering pre-shuffled cards to choose the extent of shuffling. In regard to the Shufflemaster shuffler, there are no operator options that would allow the operator (casino management) to modify the shuffle. The shuffle is based solely on the set RNG functionality.

Now having said that, are we seeing more randomization of shoes? Dramatically so! I can recall sitting at a table in one casino 15+ years ago and seeing 15 Players in a row; got up, walked over to another casino and standing by a table saw 21 Players in a row. Saw that kind of stuff often. Haven’t seen something like that in many years. It used to be the trend was your friend, now the trend is your friend, until it isn’t.

Having said the above about the cards and shuffler RNG, are pre-shuffled cards and Shufflemaster shoes shuffled more thoroughly than hand shuffles and therefore are more random? Absolutely. Are we seeing much more random shoes than in the past? Absolutely. Now, the question is how ‘severely’, if I can use that word, are the pre-shuffled cards shuffled? Would it be the equivalent of cards being shuffled 4 times in a row by a Shufflemaster? That I do not know. Anybody out there know the facts? Just wanted to pass on some factual info regarding these products.

2/24

I've always fancied this idea from a great manual I read 10+ years ago:

E. Clifton Davis’ How to Make a Million Dollars in 10 Days Plan

Once you are winning 5 units or more per shoe – try this no risk plan:

Day 1: Play 10 shoes @ $5 units = wins $250 – this gives you 10 - $25 unit buy in.

Day 2: Play 10 shoes @ $25 units = wins $1,250 – this gives you 12.5 - $100 unit buy in.

Day 3: Play 10 shoes @ $100 units = wins $5,000 – this gives you 10 - $500 unit buy in.

Day 4: Play 10 shoes @ $500 units = wins $25,000 – this gives you 10 - $1,000 unit buy in.

Day 5: Play 10 shoes @ $1,000 units = wins $50,000 – this gives you 10 - $5,000 unit buy in.

Day 6-10: Play 40 shoes @ $5,000 units = wins $1,081,500

Winning a million dollars at Baccarat is an extremely common occurrence.

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Hi Ellis,

Thanks for posting your shoe with explanations. Have a few questions about +5.

When talking about +5 you mention "mechanical play" and playing "purely mathematically". I thought mechanical play and mathematics doesn't win or only breaks even at best?

Also you say with +5 we don't need to do table selection. Then why are there three (bas4o, baotb4l, bas40m1)+5 systems? If there is no table selection then can't we go to any table and sit down and just play one system? If we have to choose between the 3 systems then we must be looking for a bias that fits that particular system aren't we? How and why would you play one system over the other if there is no need for table selection? Thank you.

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BronxAl

PapaJoe,

You hit the nail on the head and profiled Norm's inner most ways he played.

While I was playing NOR Baccarat, many times Norm would emotionally tell me "I don't play NOR". Then, I would just stop playing and learned observing his plays.

Thank you,

Al

Be a Tracker and Hunt wisely!

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Sir Donald

Ellis,

I replayed your posted (#23) S40M1 shoe per the rules, but mechanically, and ended with a +9 rather than +13.

Of course, this was due to losing the last two " fours" in the shoe, since I played robotically.

This was a tough shoe, and since I rarely go past play #40, I would have bailed at play #38 with a +7.

Ellis, I think most of the troopers on this forum ( including me ) are getting restless, and want to proceed at a faster pace....so

please pick up the tempo. Thanks.

Don

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bigcash2002

I have a feeling this forum is going to be a great one. I like what I have seen so far.

Couple questions:

I like the idea that this will work for Pre-Shuffled cards and also requires zero table selection. We really need that. Just curious, will this also work well for those few casinos that still use "regular cards"? Will this work for shoes that have a strong bias?

7.gif

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Can you list the three methods that we will be using along with the rules for each method so that when we follow a shoe that is posted everyone will get the same score. Since these methods are going to be very mechanical there should be no scoring differences. A simple question regarding the shoe that was posted where you got a +13, since we are trying to get +5 for each shoe how long after you get the +5 would you quit the shoe?

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IMPORTANT Guys, before I get into the mistake I made twice in that S40M1 shoe I need your help with something very important - a small favor:

I have compiled a complete list of everyone who has paid for membership to this forum. But the list has your actual name or your company name you paid under. I have no way to cross reference to your user name you registered under. I think everyone registered - no problem. I don't want to be posting actual names. We like to keep your private info private.

So using my private Email address, ellis_858@hotmail.com would you please each email me just 2 things: Your user name - and the name you paid under.

Sorry to bother you with this but I need to send Keith a list of paid user names and I have no other way to compile such a list. Thank you very much!

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Hi Ellis,

I'm from Malaysia and i frequent Genting Highland casino in Malaysia. The casino is known officially as Resort World Genting (RWG).

In the recent years, Resord World has expanded to Singapore and Manila, Philippines.

Since purchasing the NOR manual i had some success in improving my game. But at times or certain days, I have suffered losses probably due to the cards being on the preshuffled mode.

I thought of posting this message in the forum but since we might have spies or "informers" here, i decided not.

I have seen boxes labelled as preshuffled card being pushed on a trolley just outside the casino. It could be used in the casino at the high limit table (HLT) section and probably also in the common areas which i play (which they have a shuffle master machine for each baccarat table).

I have observed the supervisor or managers of the dealers/croupiers (normally one manager for 4 tables/dealers) hold a paper with some 3 digits code for each table ...the code is something like 170, 210, 176, 180 etc...which could be the code of the cards as to what sort of shuffling it has been subjected to (probably) by the shuffle master machine.

In your experience with the members of BTC from this part of the world mainly Malaysia, is the card preshuffled? I have tried NOR but i have to target for a +5u per table mostly on table that are SS, F and S40 (my favorite - especially with 1s and 2s only).

OTB4L with 2s and 3s are not much success cos 1s and 4s 5s do appear often in the same shoes...which is tough.

The new million dollar forum is something i'm looking forward to especially to the +5 without table selection using a mechanical system. I saw the example shoe which you posted and am looking to try it in the sample actual shoes which I have recorded from RWG casino. I will need to analyse it with the shoes that i have recorded the past two three months. But before doing so i will be awaiting your explanation on that sample shoe.

I'm willing to help the forum by posting the sample shoes i have recorded (some full game and some partial) or i could even message them to you too Ellis.

Looking forward to the new knowledge to beat my casino.

Thanks and Regards,

Benny

(djricardo)

Hi Benny! I moved your PM to the private forum because it is simply too important to just be between you and me. We can't be concerned that casinos spy on us or we won't get anything taught. MY objective is to give you ways of playing for which there is no casino defense.

Yes, your bundle numbers make sense to me. I suspect that each casino orders about 240 different numbered card orders. Their job is to match the bundle number to the way the majority of the players are playing at a given table.

I think the whole concept of preshuffled cards is to eliminate playable biases. Whether or not this was in direct response to NOR, I would not be presumptuous enough to say. What I CAN tell you is that changes in the presentation and shuffles of BJ WAS a direct casino response to the NBJ BJ manual which I understand is required reading by all casino employees. I have been told this directly by dealers and pit bosses everywhere and I can tell you that casinos were among the main buyers of the NBJ manual. I think the same is likely true of Baccarat.

Yes, you did the right thing to pull in the reins to +5 playing NOR against preshuffled cards. But we will give you far stronger weaponry than that. Recognize that I designed NOR BEFORE the advent of preshuffled cards. NOR was NOT designed to cope with preshuffled cards and frankly does a poor job of it. The +5 systems ARE designed for preshuffled cards but are also effective against regular cards.

I'm pretty sure, from other sources, that all the casinos you play are preshuffled. What shuffles or shuffle machines they use past that point are of little consequence.

Right, pay no attention to that shoe I posted until I explain it (very shortly). I made the same glaring error TWICE in that shoe.

However, the fact that I did such a dumb thing will now draw full attention to how easy it is to make such a mistake as well as how important it is the AVOID such mistakes. Ha, no, its not what you think. I played the runs correctly. We'll get into that. It was the 2s I screwed up as you will soon see.

BTW, sorry to miss a day. I was totally involved in trying to make the buyer list Keith needs before I finally realized such a list is impossible W/O your help.

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OK, back to that S40M1 shoe:

B294221

B1132111211132

B211211412131

P1111

I made the same mistake twice:

Play 18 should have been a 1 bet on B

Likewise play 48 should have been a 1 bet on B

This changes the bet amount on several other plays so I will need to replay the entire shoe.

See, when you lose the 0 bet under a 2 you bet the next 2 will go 3. I got those right.

However when you win a 0 bet under a 2, you bet the next 2 stays 2. I got that wrong.

But at this point it is better if I replay it correctly before explaining it play by play. So that is next.

Also, playing S40M1, I think it is best to wait for a 0 bet before starting a shoe. I'll make that correction as well.

We might want to start sooner IF the shoe happens to start with a ZZ run but otherwise, we don't have to wait long for a 2iar.

Also I want to remind you that I only played S40M1 because someone happened to post an S40M1 shoe right then. It was convenient. I do NOT think we will be playing S40M1 all that often. It is for shoes high in ST and ZZ runs. Casinos try to avoid those especially with preshuffled cards. But we STILL get one every now and then. We used to say "low in 2s" but I don't think we care about that with this new +5 version of S40M1.

You will soon see that with the correction, now we only ever get to the 2 bet once in the whole shoe.

So Mike and Chris, see that! Your fear of 5 and 8 bets and runaway progs seems a little distant right about now, doesn't it? We have our hands full just trying to get to a single 2 bet! See that? Ha, well wait a bit and I'll attach the corrected shoe to the explanation post. Then you'll see.

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