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Introduction to Million dollar Bac @ +5


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OK the first thing to note is the shoe start:

I waited for a 2iar and bet 0 directly under it.

(We bet 0 under all 2s with S40M1)

Now the rule for the +5 version of S40M1 is:

1. We bet 1 unit on opposites until we lose.

We can ONLY lose to a 2iar which on average is half the time.

1's are half of all events.

2+s (2 or mores) is the other half.

So on average, starting at the beginning of a shoe, we win 18 units on the 1's.

So the whole idea becomes to lose less than 13 units on the 2 or mores.

2. We bet 0 directly under the resulting 2iar.

That 0 bet is the first bet of our secondary prog (0123). It will win half the time and lose half the time on avg.

We ONLY make secondary prog bets under 2iars. So our secondary prog is always split up.

3. When the 0 bet loses we bet the rest of our secondary prog (123) that 2s well go 3. (Repeat)

So the only way we can lose our whole secondary prog after a 0 loss is when a shoe produces 4 2s before

producing a single 3 or more and also before we get to +5. This is near impossible particularly in preshuffled cards.

We didn't even come close in this shoe.

4. When the 0 bet wins we bet the rest of the prog (123) that 2s will stay 2. (We bet opposite 2iars)

Now the only way we can lose is when a shoe produces 4 3+s before producing a 2 and before we get to +5.

Again, near impossible especially in preshuffled cards.

5. Whenever we win the 1,2 or 3, our secondary prog is over and it awaits a 2iar to start over again at 0.

Note that I put all the secondary progs (0123) in red so you can follow them separately.

Note that the secondary prog ONLY makes bets after 2iars (split prog) (prog within a prog)

Note how I bet the 0123 based totally on whether the 0 bet won or lost. Completely mechanical.

Ha, also note how much better I did when I paid attention to whether the 0 bets won or lost.

It caused me to bet winners more often

To bet lower and

To score higher

Isn't that the object of Baccarat?

Doing it correctly I only got to a 2 bet ONCE in the whole shoe.

Perhaps now you can begin to understand why when I was betting a secondary BaS40 prog of 012358,

I only got to the 8 bet once in 5 years and STILL won the shoe.

A 012358 SOUNDS scary until you realize you seldom even get to the 2 bet.

See that?

Straight runs: (right after some coffee.)

The only way we could lose

When the 0 bet loses

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Steve, it already is. But there are many members.

Ellis, as of 5-3-2014, 9:31 a.m. EDST, this section is not private. I would assume that this will be fixed as soon as everyone who has paid has sent you their username, real life name and email address(?).

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Pamela Conkey

Hello everyone, Ellis could you check plays 43 and 53. I believe

they should be a 1 bet on Bank? I scored 12. Not complaining LOL.

Also I pm'd you the info you asked for. Email was not working at the time.

Thanks ,Brian

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Since we are trying to get to +5 in each shoe, when would you quit this shoe. The 1st, 2nd or even the 3rd time we hit +5. I realize in practice it doesn't matter if we play to the end of the shoe, but, in the real world when would you quit?

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Pamela Conkey

Stevep, I would most likely get out after the 2nd time after the run.

I play black chips so this is a good solid win. But if I had won that bet

I would have tried to get what I could have without going below the + 5.

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Hello everyone, Ellis could you check plays 43 and 53. I believe

they should be a 1 bet on Bank? I scored 12. Not complaining LOL.

Also I pm'd you the info you asked for. Email was not working at the time.

Thanks ,Brian

Yes, I concur with Brian and wonder why the two 1st progs would not continue for 5 iars?

AYS

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Golfgirl007

Ellis, my boyfriend Dr.Ken said to tell you that if you send us very clear simple instructions about how to play the new system, HE will draw up the flow chart for you and post it if you would like.

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NEED HELP. Why are (post 51) hands 16-17-18-19 bet differently than hands 12-13-14-15? No 0 in hands 16-19.

Hand 12 continue from 11 betting Repeat

Hand 13 restarts the 1st prog loss and bet Opposite as of S40M1

Hand 14 triggers the 2nd prog first bet ZERO (as of 0123)

Hand 15 returns to prog 1 continue betting Repeat after the ZERO bet won and is not confirmed 3iars

Hand 16 continues prog 1 making 1 bet on Repeat as hand 16 won as well

Hand 17 restarts prog 1 but bet Opposite because hand 16 was a loss (again S40M1 by default)

Hand 18 triggers again the 2nd prog because hand 17 was a loss but this time we are betting 1 on Opposite because our last ZERO bet was a loss and causes all subsequent bet to bet 2iars will stay 2. We bet 1 unit because this is the 2nd bet of the 2nd prog 0123 (ie, bet #2 of the 2nd prog)

Hand 19 is back to prog 1 again but this time we bet Opposite as prog 1 is always S40 except continues from 3iars.

I hope this helps and Ellis please correct me if I am wrong.

AYS

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Hand 12 continue from 11 betting Repeat

Hand 13 restarts the 1st prog loss and bet Opposite as of S40M1

Hand 14 triggers the 2nd prog first bet ZERO (as of 0123)

Hand 15 returns to prog 1 continue betting Repeat after the ZERO bet won and is not confirmed 3iars

Hand 16 continues prog 1 making 1 bet on Repeat as hand 16 won as well

Hand 17 restarts prog 1 but bet Opposite because hand 16 was a loss (again S40M1 by default)

Hand 18 triggers again the 2nd prog because hand 17 was a loss but this time we are betting 1 on Opposite because our last ZERO bet was a loss and causes all subsequent bet to bet 2iars will stay 2. We bet 1 unit because this is the 2nd bet of the 2nd prog 0123 (ie, bet #2 of the 2nd prog)

Hand 19 is back to prog 1 again but this time we bet Opposite as prog 1 is always S40 except continues from 3iars.

I hope this helps and Ellis please correct me if I am wrong.

AYS

Sorry my typing mistake: Hand 15 bets Repeats because it is now CONFIRMED 3iars.

AYS

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MVSeahog

Hand 19 is back to prog 1 again but this time we bet Opposite as prog 1 is always S40 except continues from 3iars.

I hope this helps and Ellis please correct me if I am wrong.

AYS

Darn it.

I missed that note. (continues from 3iars only). Just "misplayed" 5 test shoes.

I'll redo them on the fly and see how it comes out.

MVS (all 5 did profit though)

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Here is that S40M1 shoe again:

I see some of you are trying to make the same mistake I made on my first try.

In S40M1 your 0 bet always goes OTR (on the run) under a 2iar.

The 2iar either went to 3 (0 bet wins)

or the 2 stayed 2 (0 bet loses)

When your 0 bet loses. You bet the next 2 goes to 3.

You are betting your 123 prog that 2s go to 3. But:

When your 0 bet WINS:

You bet your 123 prog that 2s stay 2 - so you are betting opposites after 2 iars (in a rows)

So you need to note whether your 0 bet wins or loses each time you bet it.

When it wins you bet 2s stay 2. (plays 18, 47, 56, 62)

When it loses you bet 2s go to 3 (plays 5, 25, 33, 38)

See, whether the 0 bet wins or loses decides whether you bet your 123 secondary prog AGAINST 2s (that 2s stay 2) or ON 2s (that 2s go to 3)

Therefore the 0 bet is what creates your huge mechanical advantage.

You are either betting the shoe can't produce 4 2s before it produces a single 3+ or:

4 3+s before it produces a single 2.

AND, the more random the shoe is (preshuffled cards) the less likely you are to lose your secondary 0123 prog. It is as close to impossible as you can get in Baccarat.

So see, while random would normally work against us, we are turning the tables and making random work FOR us - just as we do in BJ.

So, never say that random cards can't be beat. Just like in BJ, they are, in fact, the easiest cards to beat. You just need to know the above simple trick of it.

I say "simple". It is extremely simple to do once you know the trick of it. What is hard is trying to explain it in sentences. It's like trying to explain a door knob.

But hey, I got it wrong my first try too.

Now, whenever you win your seconday prog of 123 and also after each 0 bet, you immediately go back to your primary prog of betting 1 unit on opposites.

EXCEPT: when a 0 bet wins you stay OTR for at least ONE bet, which brings us right back to runs - next post.

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RUNS

To date I've been pretty lenient with the guys who blindly say:

I'm going to stay on all runs until I lose Ellis, regardless of what you say because I can only lose once but I can win MANY times.

Well, I'm the original author of that saying back in the '80s. I don't like being hit in the head with my own argument.

And Sometimes you, in fact, SHOULD stay on all runs until they end.

Here's a better rule:

IF you are seeing long runs, by all means stay ON them. But ONLY if you are seeing them.

But the FACT is, you usually AREN'T seeing them.

And in that case you are better off NOT staying on all runs until you lose.

Staying on all runs until you lose ALWAYS forces a lost bet. Sometimes that lost bet is going to prevent you from getting to +5.

Let's take a 5iar for instance.

Let's also say I'm staying on runs ONLY to 5.

So on the 5iar I make 1 unit on the fifth circle and I also win my next 1 unit bet on opposites.

Our run bettor also makes 1 unit on the fifth circle only to lose it on his next bet.

So now I'm TWO units up on him!

And that 2 units might easily get me to +5 while he's still floundering around at +3 with the potential of losing the shoe I just won. See that?

So OK fine, lets say our run goes 6:

He wins a unit on the 5th circle and another unit on the 6th circle and then loses. He's up 1 unit.

I win a unit on the 5th circle, lose a unit against the 6 th circle and win 2 units on my opposite bet. I'm 2 units up - twice as much as he is up.

And remember we are only trying to get to +5.

OK, here's the deal:

7s normally occur once every 4 shoes but

7 or mores normally occur once every 2 shoes

The key word there is normally.

Now, consider that casinos can only lose on straight runs.

And consider that preshuffled cards are FIXED by the casino.

Fine, NOW how many 7 or mores do you think you are going to actually see??? Do you think the casino is trying to win? Or lose?

So, with all that in mind I'll now give you the BEST rule to follow re runs.

When 7 or mores are running at or above normal, stay on all runs until you lose. If in fact you ever see that situation.

BUT if 7 or mores are running below normal, why in hell are you betting on them at the expense you COULD be making on 5s and 6s which occur a hell of a lot more often than 7 or mores.

Are you starting to get it?

Well let me give tou a very practical example:

Sands Bethlehem! 100% preshuffled cards. 100 tote boards!

Normally there should have been one 7 or more on half of the tote boards. There were ZERO!

That is totally impossible. Yet there it was and members here can vouch for that fact. They were there and they checked.

Impossible UNLESS the cards are fixed.

Watch my lips this time: Preshuffled cards are fixed cards. You have to know how they are fixed in order to use the casinos own cheating against them.

I would have been FAR better off to not play at any table.

I would have been far better off just walking the tables looking for 6iars and back betting $1000 that they wouldn't go 7 because none were. I would have won that bet every single time.

Why didn't I do that? Because I'm old and slow witted now. 20 years ago I would have walked out of there with $20,000.

So what is YOUR excuse?

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Wendel

Hi,

I just can't hold this question any longer . I apologize if it is obvious and I can't see it

or if it is yet to be dealt with.

I cannot see how to deal with a sequence of

B36

or any sequence where a long(er) run follows a winning 0 bet

at the beginning of the shoe or later where there are no unresolved 0 bets.

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OK, here's how I played the runs:

I got several calls that said "but Ellis, you didn't play all the runs the same way."

Of course not: Look at NOR. Sometimes we are in Mode 2, sometimes mode 3 and we play our runs differently accordingly.

In +5 we don't have modes. Who said "Thank God!"

I let each run dictate how I played the next run.

The first run I have nothing to go by so I stay on the run until it loses. (play 12)

So that tells me to stay on the next run until it goes 9. But it only went 4 so I lose at play 16.

But that tells me how long to stay on the next run so I jump off at play43 and again at play 53.

But Ellis, what if either of those runs went 5. So big whip! I lose a 1 and win a 2. My ass is covered for 5s and 6s. See that.

But then I got another call about 3s:

He was right. I would have been better off (significantly) to jump off all runs at 3.

But we are usually playing S40M1 because the shoe is streaky. This one turned from super streak in the first column to super chop thereafter.

So the standard rule needs to be Stay on all 3s - which I did.

But if you notice that you have high 3s vs low 4+s, fine, jump off at 3 as I should have.

But recognize that there is a penalty for doing that. When I jumped off at 4, I had 6s covered.

But if I jump off at 3, a 6 kills me. See that?

So I think we need to make the standard rule: Always stay to at least 4.

See, you have to go by what we are up against.

Preshuffled cards tend toward high 5s. So you ALWAYS want to have 5s covered.

6s are iffy so its good to have those covered too.

But 7+s are nearly always below normal and greatly outnumbered by 5s and 6s.

So if you have to lose to something, make it 7+s. Then, try to get to +5 first.

So, will we always lose to 7+s?

No, If its early, we are ON it.

If its late, we'll likely get to +5 first.

See, I'm trying to get you to play to what actually happens most frequently in this brand new preshuffled ball game.

Sometimes the old rules no longer apply. See that? Go with the flow!

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Hi,

I just can't hold this question any longer . I apologize if it is obvious and I can't see it

or if it is yet to be dealt with.

I cannot see how to deal with a sequence of

B36

or any sequence where a long(er) run follows a winning 0 bet

at the beginning of the shoe or later where there are no unresolved 0 bets.

Well, you're right it ain't pretty and you are likely better off with OTB4L

But it isn't the end of the world either.

Remember you always bet that 3s will go to 4;

post-8-1450026228225_thumb.jpg

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MVSeahog
Hi,

I just can't hold this question any longer . I apologize if it is obvious and I can't see it

or if it is yet to be dealt with.

I cannot see how to deal with a sequence of

B36

or any sequence where a long(er) run follows a winning 0 bet

at the beginning of the shoe or later where there are no unresolved 0 bets.

Wendel,

It would appear that we're all all the same page and coming up with the same questions. I think this is a good thing!!

Anyway, I believe the answer to your question, and this is only because I've run into it a few times already is this:

B36 is what we're working with at the start of the shoe.

Hand 1 - NB

Hand 2 - NB

Hand 3 - a red zero and it wins meaning we will be betting the 2's do NOT go to 3.

Hand 4 - lose 1 and it ends that sequence.

Hand 5 - is the first oppostite (S40M1) wager and it also loses.

Hand 6 - bets that the two will stay a two. It loses.

Hand 7 - restarts the opposites of S40M1. It loses.

Hand 8 - Bets under the previous hand as it is NOT a "2" and we're playing S40M1, which is the normal wager.

Hand 9 - Wins as it is a regular S40M1 wager OTR.

At least that's how I understand the logic of the play.

Without a "2" in the mix, there is no "progression in a progression" wager.

If I am incorrect, I'm sure someone will come to our aid. :redface:

MVS (for some reason this method has grabbed me pretty good)

Hmm, I see Commander Ellis posted up the reply while I was making mine! Oh well, it was a good try. I missed the "3's will go to 4" thing. Arrrrgh.

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Wendel
Wendel,

It would appear that we're all all the same page and coming up with the same questions. I think this is a good thing!!

Anyway, I believe the answer to your question, and this is only because I've run into it a few times already is this:

B36 is what we're working with at the start of the shoe.

Hand 1 - NB

Hand 2 - NB

Hand 3 - a red zero and it wins meaning we will be betting the 2's do NOT go to 3.

Hand 4 - lose 1 and it ends that sequence.

Hand 5 - is the first oppostite (S40M1) wager and it also loses.

Hand 6 - bets that the two will stay a two. It loses.

Hand 7 - restarts the opposites of S40M1. It loses.

Hand 8 - Bets under the previous hand as it is NOT a "2" and we're playing S40M1, which is the normal wager.

Hand 9 - Wins as it is a regular S40M1 wager OTR.

At least that's how I understand the logic of the play.

With a "2" in the mix, there is no "progression in a progression" wager.

If I am incorrect, I'm sure someone will come to our aid. :redface:

MVS (for some reason this method has grabbed me pretty good)

Hmm, I see Commander Ellis posted up the reply while I was making mine! Oh well, it was a good try. I missed the "3's will go to 4" thing. Arrrrgh.

Thanks, MVS

I am glad to see that I am not the only one.

I found myself hanging out there after the 1 bet ATR and wondering if I should follow

immediately with my 2 bet and 3 bet.

Wendel

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Wendel
Well, you're right it ain't pretty and you are likely better off with OTB4L

But it isn't the end of the world either.

Remember you always bet that 3s will go to 4;

[ATTACH]2919[/ATTACH]

Thanks,

That solution works for me .

Wendel

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Pamela Conkey

EXCEPT: when a 0 bet wins you stay OTR for at least ONE bet, which brings us right back to runs - next post.

Hello everyone, OK Ellis that answers my ?'s. I hate to take this shoe out of context but

what about the 9iar at the start of the shoe? Since it's so early in the shoe do we give it a shot

like we did here? Thanks, Brian.

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Pamela Conkey

Please ignore my last post. I should have waited till

Ellis got through with this particular subject. Have a

good day all.Brian

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Ellis, I didn't get a reply the first time so I'll ask again.

I Have a few questions about +5.

When talking about +5 you mention "mechanical play" and playing "purely mathematically". I thought mechanical play and mathematics doesn't win or only breaks even at best?

Also you say with +5 we don't need to do table selection. Then why are there three (bas4o, baotb4l, bas40m1)+5 systems? If there is no table selection then can't we go to any table and sit down and just play one system? If we have to choose between the 3 systems then we must be looking for a bias that fits that particular system aren't we? How and why would you play one system over the other if there is no need for table selection? Thank you.

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