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Introduction to Million dollar Bac @ +5


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Okay, so I think I can play BAS40M1 and BAS40 without too many mistakes and in a mechanical manner and I can wait until I'm at mid shoe or so to start play BUT (and this is big BUT to me), I have some major issues/problems with determining which system to use. I know Ellis has stated above in the rules

High 1's or high 1's and 2s = BaS40

High 2s or high 2s and 3s = BaOTB4L

High runs either ST or ZZ or both = BaS40M1

SS is still F3

But I can't really tell high 1's and high 2's from high runs ST or ZZ. I'm afraid it's way too subtle for me at this point.

Could we maybe get some "training" on how scope out a shoe to use the correct methog?

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I thought +5 method was suppose to be "no table selection"?

If we have to wait mid shoe to see which of the three systems to play then why not play NOR+? That's the same thing we do for NOR to determine which system to play. Plus I thought pre-shuffled cards are all over the place or "random" so once you see one type of system to play, as soon as you start that system the shoe can change to a different type of "bias" Then what?

Confused about what "no table selection" means. Ellis please explain.

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I'll defer to Ellis for an "official" answer, but when I am playing with my own money table selection is the method used to get to +5 the fastest. Why work hard to play a table when another table would be easy. If the casino has 14 tables, it certainly makes sense to look at all the tote boards and see which one is going to be the easiest to beat right away. From what I have seen of the pre-shuffled cards, they produce something I would call "micro-bias". It is like a bias for maybe 15-20 hands and then it changes. The goal is to jump in, grab the +5 and get out and then repeat on another table.

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Mike I'm not trying to argue here but like Bobby, I was under the impression that the MDB +5 methodology was supposed to work at any table, no selection necessary. I don't have many choices where I live, 2 hours one-way to a casino with a couple of tables and then online. Actually choosing a table is not an option.

Waiting for mid-shoe is an option but as I stated above, I and still not strong on picking the best system to play even after waiting half a shoe.

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Mike I'm not trying to argue here but like Bobby, I was under the impression that the MDB +5 methodology was supposed to work at any table, no selection necessary. I don't have many choices where I live, 2 hours one-way to a casino with a couple of tables and then online. Actually choosing a table is not an option.

Waiting for mid-shoe is an option but as I stated above, I and still not strong on picking the best system to play even after waiting half a shoe.

Ellis' quote from thread #1:

'AND, you don't require table selection. You can use it or not - your choice. But see, in random cards, how much good can table selection do??? I didn't use it at all. Today I might use it a little just to see which of the 3 systems to start a table with. But, you're going to know after just a few plays anyway. And that choice is also completely mechanical.'

Does this not apply now?

Regards,

Glenn

"Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine per cent perspiration...do your homework" Thomas A. Edison

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Mike I'm not trying to argue here but like Bobby, I was under the impression that the MDB +5 methodology was supposed to work at any table, no selection necessary. I don't have many choices where I live, 2 hours one-way to a casino with a couple of tables and then online. Actually choosing a table is not an option.

Waiting for mid-shoe is an option but as I stated above, I and still not strong on picking the best system to play even after waiting half a shoe.

Correct, we never used table selection with BaS40. In fact, at the time we had no other syserm to switch to.

Here's the deal on that:

Preshuffled cards are much closer to random than regular cards. We can think of preshuffled as random. However, we know that BaS40 wins the most when a table favors chop because it wins on all 1's and 2s and it cancels out 3s with its 0 bets. The fewer 3s you have, the fewer secondary progressions you need to play, the safer you are. See that? That's why I told you about occassionally finding choppy preshuffled tables. They DO exist but they are not a prerequisite for BaS40 like biases are a prerequisite for NOR.

But remember, casinos like to present a moving target. With preshuffled, you will still see:

Choppy tables (high 1's and 2s) = Bas40

Low 2s = BaS40M1

High 2s = BaOTB4L

Therefore our best players will STILL do a table search to get their session started out on the right foot.

Regular cards are a whole different story. NOR is not a prerequsite (a prior condition) (a prior necessity) for MDB.

You could just play MDB in both kinds of cards with no table selection and still average +5. KISS

But our best players Know how to play NOR backwards and forwards, so in regular cards they are going to look for good NOR opportunities because they know NOR can make more money in good NOR conditions. IF they find none THEN they'll resort to MDB in regular cards because they know MDB is best when you have no strong biases to work with.

The opposite is also occassionally true. Occassionally you find good NOR opportunities even in preshuffled cards. It's just much rarer. Our top players are going to jump on those opportunities too but in general they know that MDB is overall best in preshuffled cards while NOR is overall best in regular cards.

See, we have "top" players who are going to search out opportunitis to squeeze out every bit of advantage possible. Those guys will probably average closer to 7 units.

And we have KISS players: Their attitude is: Just give me ONE simple way to play and leave me alone. Hey, playing only ONE way you get pretty good at it over time. These guys can average +5.

BOTH can get to a million dollars - maybe one a little faster than the other.

So what are we really arguing about. If you get to a million dollars, you aren't going to be concerned about somebody else doing it a little faster. In fact, you aren't going to have any concerns at all - ever, are you?

Your biggest concern will be: Hmm, should I get a Porche or a Jag???

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Okay, so I think I can play BAS40M1 and BAS40 without too many mistakes and in a mechanical manner and I can wait until I'm at mid shoe or so to start play BUT (and this is big BUT to me), I have some major issues/problems with determining which system to use. I know Ellis has stated above in the rules

High 1's or high 1's and 2s = BaS40

High 2s or high 2s and 3s = BaOTB4L

High runs either ST or ZZ or both = BaS40M1

SS is still F3

But I can't really tell high 1's and high 2's from high runs ST or ZZ. I'm afraid it's way too subtle for me at this point.

Could we maybe get some "training" on how scope out a shoe to use the correct methog?

Ha, you are just not giving your potential enough credit yet.

If you just stick with BaS40 you'll do OK. System selection is not nearly as important with MDB as it is with NOR. It's just a way of squeezing out an extra unit or 2. So you make +5 while the other guy maks +6. Big freaking whip! Who really cares? Make him buy dinner.

High 1's are high 1's. You beat ALL of them whether they are in ZZs or sporadic. The same with 2s for BaS40.

High 1's are simply more than one every 4 plays. Your play# divided by 4. Get it?

Also high 1's are the ONLY thing that can create a + OR count. So if you have a + OR count you havs high 1's. No way around that fact.

High 2's: Your play# divided by 8. Are you seeing more (High 2s) or less (Low 2s). Eventually you will know W/O even bothering with an OR count.

THAT BTW is why it is so important to work in cols of 20. You become familiar with what is normal. For instance, more than 5 1's per col of 20 = high 1's. See that - you learn something evey day - just pay attention. This forum is FILLED with such goodies.

But give yourself a chance - Rome wasn't built in a day.

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Ha, you are just not giving your potential enough credit yet.

If you just stick with BaS40 you'll do OK. System selection is not nearly as important with MDB as it is with NOR. It's just a way of squeezing out an extra unit or 2. So you make +5 while the other guy maks +6. Big freaking whip! Who really cares? Make him buy dinner.

High 1's are high 1's. You beat ALL of them whether they are in ZZs or sporadic. The same with 2s for BaS40.

High 1's are simply more than one every 4 plays. Your play# divided by 4. Get it?

Also high 1's are the ONLY thing that can create a + OR count. So if you have a + OR count you havs high 1's. No way around that fact.

High 2's: Your play# divided by 8. Are you seeing more (High 2s) or less (Low 2s). Eventually you will know W/O even bothering with an OR count.

THAT BTW is why it is so important to work in cols of 20. You become familiar with what is normal. For instance, more than 5 1's per col of 20 = high 1's. See that - you learn something evey day - just pay attention. This forum is FILLED with such goodies.

But give yourself a chance - Rome wasn't built in a day.

I like to wait for three events (2's and 3+). If there are 1's in between them then I'll play S40. If two out of three are 2iars, then ill play BaS40. If two out of three are 3+ iar, then I'll play S40M1.

So simple and I do it the same way every time. Works well.

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Let me try to put everything in perspective for you: I'm trying to get you to see the big picture. Because, when you can see it clearly - you'll like what you see.

BaS40M1: You win on all 1's. There are an avg of 18 1's per shoe. So its exactly as if the casino gave you 18 units pefore the shoe starts and said OK buddy see if you can play this shoe W/O losing all these chips. See that? 1's are a gimme!

BaOTB4L: You win on all single 1's (avg of 9 per shoe) and on all 2's (avg of 9 per shoe) so again it's as if you started with +18. See that? BUT

BaS40: you win 1 unit on all 1's (18) and 1 unit on all 2s (9). So now it's as if the casino started you out with 27 units!

Now perhaps you can see why we base with BaS40 - why it's our default system - why you can win with only BaS40. See that?

PLUS, on top of that BaS40 incurs only half as many secondary progs as either BaS40M1 or BaOTB4L. SO your chance of losing is cut in half. See that?

It is all just simple mathematics. With me so far?

OK now, OTR bets are always 50/50. Therefore in all 3 systems we bet 0 on ALL initial OTR bets.

That BTW is one flaw with NOR. NOR makes its highest bets on initial OTR bets where your odds are only 50/50.

MDB is a little smarter than that. The MDB philosophy is: If our odds are only 50/50 why bet more than 0??? Why indeed! If we only win the bet half the time why bet more than ZERO. That is pretty darn smart if I do say so myself, isn't it.

PLUS our 0 bet makes our secondary prog of 123 TWICE as hard to beat.

BaS40: The only way we can lose is 4 2's W/O a 3+ or 4 3+s W/O a 2. And half the time it takes 5! Like one shoe I already posted. And we can always add a bet or two to our prog if that ever becomes necessary. But it "seldom" will.

And in preshuffled cards "seldom" becomes a whole lot closer to NEVER. Because the cards are closer to Random.

BaOTB4L: Now the only way you can lose is 4 3s W/O a 4+ or 4+s W/O a 3. See why it only comes up half as often?

BaOTB4L: The losing sequence is 4 4s W/O a 5+ or 4 5+s W/O a 4 either ST or ZZ.

AND, we are only in a shoe for about 32 plays on avg. So all this shit has to happen inside of 32 plays on avg AND it has to happen before we get to +5.

THAT is why we are looking at something close to a 95% win rate and maybe a little higher with experience.

OH yeah, runs:

If you get off a run at the prescribed place and then lose a 1,2 betting against the run. DON'T bet 3. Bet 1 OTR. That takes losing on runs right out of the picture - the big picture. Are you starting to see it now?

BUT! If you have been seeing normal or high runs at your table STAY on ALL runs, once on them, until you lose. That ALSO takes losing on runs clean out of the picture.

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High 1's or high 1's and 2s = BaS40

High 2s or high 2s and 3s = BaOTB4L

High runs either ST or ZZ or both = BaS40M1

SS is still F3

Just trying to make sure I have this correct. The only difference between BaS40 and BaS40M1 is that BaS40 uses 1,2 on opposites for the primary progression, whereas BaS40M1 uses only 1 bet on opposites for the primary progression. After either one fails to win in the primary progression, they go into the exact same rules for secondary progression.

Also, is there a difference between BaS40M1 and S40M1 or is it just typo's?

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.  Figure out a way to win at baccarat that fits your lifestyle, you don't have to eat fish anymore!

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I just got a call from Ed Gil re BaS40 and he is still a little unclear on the 0 bet, what it tells us, and the secondary prog. So maybe others are too.

While the rules are the same for all 3 MDB systems, here I'm only talking from the BaS40 perspective.

OK, your primary prog is 1,2 on opposites. So you can ONLY lose to a 3iar.

So your first 0 bet is under a 3iar betting it will go 4. In fact that is true of ALL 0 bets.

Whenever you bet 0 win or lose it ALWAYS starts a secondary prog of 0123.

Your secondary (red) prog is always single bets and always only under 3s.

See, even if your 0 wins, win or lose, you started a secondary prog so UNDER THE NEXT 3 your bet is always 1. (0123) BTW, it's good to put your secondary prog in red like I did when you are first starting out. After a few shoes this won't really be necessary any more.

Now your 0 bet either won (the 3 went to 4) or it lost (the 3 stayed 3.)

If your 0 bet won that means the 3 went to 4. That is your first 4+.

So when your 0 bet wins you bet the rest of your secondary prog (123) that 3s stay 3 (you bet opposite under 3s)

This way you are betting that the shoe won't produce 4 4+s without a 3 which is the safest bet in the whole freaking casino.

But if your 0 bet lost you do the exact opposite You already had your first 3 so you bet the remainder of your secondary prog (123) that 3s will go to 4.

Now you are betting the shoe can't produce 3 more 3s before it produces a 4+. See that? Again, the safest bet in the casino.

When you win either the 1,2 or 3, you completed your secondary prog and you are back to betting 1,2 on opposites until the next 3 under which you bet is 0 OTR.

Recognize that your whole secondary prog is ONLY bet under 3s. AND after every secondary prog bet you are back to your blak bets.

OK, runs: Under your first winning 0 bet (Your first run went to 4) You bet a black 1 that the 4 will go to 5 and you stay on that run until you lose. The actual length of that run determines how long you stay on the next run. And that run determines how long you stay on the next run.

For instance, lets say your first run only went 4. Fine, that means we bet AGAINST the next 4 (that it will stay 4). But lets say it goes 5. Fine that means we get off the next run at 5. See that?

BUT there is an important exception. If you are seeing a lot of 6 or mores (more than 1 per shoe), you are best off staying on all runs until you lose.

Ellis, what if I hit my +5 while I'm betting down a run?

If it is before play# 15, capture 4 and bet OTR until you lose. Hope it goes to 12 or more.

But if its after play 15 you are best to quit at +5.

But if you are drinking a Scotch, go for it!

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Just trying to make sure I have this correct. The only difference between BaS40 and BaS40M1 is that BaS40 uses 1,2 on opposites for the primary progression, whereas BaS40M1 uses only 1 bet on opposites for the primary progression. After either one fails to win in the primary progression, they go into the exact same rules for secondary progression.

Exactly right Mike!

Also, is there a difference between BaS40M1 and S40M1 or is it just typo's?

Ha, good catch! See, we taught it under NOR W/O a secondary prog

Now we are teaching it with a secondary prog for MDB

So I just use the Ba so everyone know's which way I'm talking about.

BTW Mike, I'm counting on you to make sure Keith wins in Vegas.

Otherwise I'll have to kick his ass.

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Ok, Ellis can you please post more shoes with play by plays, especially ones showing how to deal with "runs"? Thanks.

Not today Bobby but yes, sure. I think that is the beat way to learn. Also I need to go back and separate out all the instruction and shoes and put them in one place on a sticky thread that has a table of contents and a glossary.

We need an organized forum this time.

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Guys, I'm doing good on the member list but I'm still missing the user names of:

Moro Arakaki

J E Jefferson.

If you've already sent them to me I apologize that I haven't had a chance to look yet.

If you just want to call me, my number is 901 405 1723.

My email is

ellis_858@hotmail.com

THANKS!

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Idea:

Should we start two new threads:

1) Casinos we verified using Preshuffled/Fixed cards

2) Casinos we still believe use regular cards

Just a thought, we can have the top post fixed/stickied and Ellis can edit it to keep it accurage

and the rest of us can post of knowledge of casinos under it

7.gif

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BTW Mike, I'm counting on you to make sure Keith wins in Vegas.

Otherwise I'll have to kick his ass.

No problem. I could use a big win too. Trying to get a few practice sessions in before then. I need to be betting yellow by the time that trip comes as I intend on spending 5 nights in a two story villa.

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.  Figure out a way to win at baccarat that fits your lifestyle, you don't have to eat fish anymore!

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Hi Ellis,

I got access to the MDB just about 2 days back and was go thru the postings.

BaS40 and BaS40M1 seem clearly defined. It is good if we can see more sample shoes too on both of this.

I was trying to find for info on BaOTB4L but it is either i overlooked or it is not out (not yet clearly defined).

Is it going to be on a separate thread like the others?

Thanks & Regards :)

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On certain days i have been seeing less zz runs (1s are less), more of 2s and 3s and some 4s too in some tote boards. With occasionally runs of 6s 7s and 8s.

(What system should I be playing - I will get some sample shoes on this)

It seems like the shuffling machine is doing all this because I have never seen any new boxes of card being introduced in play.

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In reviewing the S40M1 +5 strategy shoe that was posted I have a few statements and then a question.

1 - After winning a secondary prog bet we go back to a zero bet for the next secondary prog.

2 - When the zero loses we bet our secondary prog bet that 2's will go to 3 (bet OTR).

3 - When the zero wins we bet our secondary prog bet that the 2's will stay 2 (bet ATR).

4 - each run of 4 or more determines how long you stay on the next run.

If these above statements are correct please explain to me play # 52 where 1 unit was bet OTR.

Does this mean that no matter how many times the 3iar does not go to 4iar we keep basing our decision on the last 4iar and ignore the fact that the previous 3iars stayed that way? This question may have been answered and I missed it. Thanks for the help.

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In reviewing the S40M1 +5 strategy shoe that was posted I have a few statements and then a question.

1 - After winning a secondary prog bet we go back to a zero bet for the next secondary prog.

2 - When the zero loses we bet our secondary prog bet that 2's will go to 3 (bet OTR).

3 - When the zero wins we bet our secondary prog bet that the 2's will stay 2 (bet ATR).

That's how I understand it. Did I get it right, Ellis?

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.  Figure out a way to win at baccarat that fits your lifestyle, you don't have to eat fish anymore!

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In reviewing the S40M1 +5 strategy shoe that was posted I have a few statements and then a question.

1 - After winning a secondary prog bet we go back to a zero bet for the next secondary prog.

2 - When the zero loses we bet our secondary prog bet that 2's will go to 3 (bet OTR).

3 - When the zero wins we bet our secondary prog bet that the 2's will stay 2 (bet ATR).

That's how I understand it. Did I get it right, Ellis?

That is correct Mike! That makes it the only way you can lose your 3 is 4 2s W/O a 3+ or 4 3+s W/O a 2 and half the time it takes 5 as you will see.

Be careful of the fact that the first S40M1 shoe I posted was WRONG. I will go back and delete it. But the 2nd one was fine.

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