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BaS40 +5 Strategy


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It might be even a little better, once you get off a run at the prescribed point, to bet both the 1 and the 2 against the run before going back on the run @1 unit. You will win the 1,2 prog better than 3 out of 4. But if you lose it, you are not worse off by 3, only 2 because the other option of staying on the run always forces a 1 unit loss.

OK, I have explained the actual math as thoroughly as I know how and with examples. If you prefer to go by old wives tales - that's your option. It's your money. I can only explain what is mathematically best and why. After that it is up to you. I just don't like watching players throw away their +5 opportunities in favor of old wives tales.

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Again:

If I get off a run of 4 I'm 2 units better off than an OTR bettor.

If I get off a run at 4 that goes 5, I'm 1 unit better off than an OTR bettor

If I get off a 5 at 5 I'm 2 units better off than an OTR bettor

If I get off a 6 at 5 I'm one unit better off than an OTR bettor

If I get off a 6 at 6 I'm 2units better off than an OTR bettor

If I get off a 7 at 6 I'm 1 unit better off.

These 1's and 2s add up because there are twice as many 4s as there are 5s and twice as many 5s as 6s.

This is not even allowing for the fact that preshuffled cards favor 5s.

Either you see that or you don't. All I can do is explain the surrounding math.

But I've given you an out - a way you can have your cake and eat it too while completely eliminating the entire runs threat no matter what the shoe does.

We eliminate the most common culprit from the entire +5 strategy.

Now our only culprit for BaS40 is either 4 4+s before there is a 3 or 4 3s before there is a 4+. AND all that needs to happen before we hit +5. The odds against either are extremely high - particularly with preshuffled cards.

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It might be even a little better, once you get off a run at the prescribed point, to bet both the 1 and the 2 against the run before going back on the run @1 unit. You will win the 1,2 prog better than 3 out of 4. But if you lose it, you are not worse off by 3, only 2 because the other option of staying on the run always forces a 1 unit loss.

OK, I have explained the actual math as thoroughly as I know how and with examples. If you prefer to go by old wives tales - that's your option. It's your money. I can only explain what is mathematically best and why. After that it is up to you. I just don't like watching players throw away their +5 opportunities in favor of old wives tales.

Ellis what are your thoughts on simply waiting for the run the end after your win your OTR bets to a 4,5,6 or whatever it might be when it's time to go off the run?

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Here is another thing I've been thinking about:

We Know that with regular cards, casino shuffle techniques favor OTB4L and we know why - casinos always win OTB4L shoes.

I suspect that with fixed cards, that will be even more true for the same reason.

So the knee jerk reaction is that BaOTB4L will be our strongest system.

I'm not so sure:

See while losing our secondary prog with either S40M1 or BaS40 is remote, OTB4L puts us in double jeopardy. Both 4iars Straight and ZZ trigger a secondary prog.

But also our progs are greater with BaS40 and BaOTB4L (120123) than with S40M1 (10123).

I'm wondering if S40M1 might end up being the safest and surest way to get to +5???

The +5 version of S40M1 is no longer a streak system.

Look at the sample shoe. We actually did better in the 3 chop columns than we did in the streak column - in spite of the 9iar.

Also, 2s are no longer a culprit for S40M1.

And while the progression is shorter, the chance of losing the secondary prog is the same as with the other +5 systems.

Hmm, food for thought. Time will tell.

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Reasonable would be to just restart your primary progression. Might work, might not, but it's reasonable.

I think you would have to wait for the current run to end and restart after the next 2iar. Run it past Ellis.

p.s. OTR is 1 unit.

Edited by Wendel
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Here is another thing I've been thinking about:

We Know that with regular cards, casino shuffle techniques favor OTB4L and we know why - casinos always win OTB4L shoes.

I suspect that with fixed cards, that will be even more true for the same reason.

So the knee jerk reaction is that BaOTB4L will be our strongest system.

I'm not so sure:

See while losing our secondary prog with either S40M1 or BaS40 is remote, OTB4L puts us in double jeopardy. Both 4iars Straight and ZZ trigger a secondary prog.

But also our progs are greater with BaS40 and BaOTB4L (120123) than with S40M1 (10123).

I'm wondering if S40M1 might end up being the safest and surest way to get to +5???

The +5 version of S40M1 is no longer a streak system.

Look at the sample shoe. We actually did better in the 3 chop columns than we did in the streak column - in spite of the 9iar.

Also, 2s are no longer a culprit for S40M1.

And while the progression is shorter, the chance of losing the secondary prog is the same as with the other +5 systems.

Hmm, food for thought. Time will tell.

I'm risking my own money to test BaS40M1 on tables in Florida. I believe it embodies the KISS concept, which will work well on a daily basis.

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.  Figure out a way to win at baccarat that fits your lifestyle, you don't have to eat fish anymore!

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I'm risking my own money to test BaS40M1 on tables in Florida. I believe it embodies the KISS concept, which will work well on a daily basis.

Watch out for high 2s Mike!

Also when you get home please also see how BaS40 would have done and please let me know.

It is a very hard call for me between BaS40 and BaS40M1

M1 bets the lowest while S40 seems to cover more situations with fewer progs.

I just can't predict. I think all we can do is play and see which truly does the best.

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Thought I'd throw out a practice shoe.

[ATTACH]2942[/ATTACH]

I'm not forgetting you. I'm just a little inundated at the moment. Hopefully later today or tomorrow.

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I'm not forgetting you. I'm just a little inundated at the moment. Hopefully later today or tomorrow.

No worries. If you do work the shoe out and post that would be great for everyone. This will also give everyone another example, to compare their work to your solution, so we can all see how we're doing.

Here's how I worked it. image2014_05_13_10_32_540001.pdf

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Thanks gman, couple of questions please.

Shouldn't bet 12 have been 1 unit?

Bet 35 was a one unit bet that the run of 4 would become a run of 5 because hands 5 - 9 were a run of 5? Same for bet 44, betting that run of 4 could go to 5?

SteveO

Correct on play #12, that was an error, should have been a 1 bet, not a 2 bet.

Correct explanation of the bet at play 35.

As far as play #44 goes, looking at it now I think the 1 bet going back OTR after the ATR loss at play #43 was a mistake. The last run that ended as a 4iar at play #34 should have told me to just start my primary progression bet over at play #44 instead of going back OTR. I would have picked up one unit in that spot. I think I thought it was a 3iar at that point at play #44 forgetting to pay attention to the last column and see that it was a continuation of a banker run.

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Be carefull Pompanomike,

I played at the Hard Rock in Hollywood this past weekend and my shoe history showed their shoes had High 2s and 3s.

Started playing BaS40M1 using proper secondary prog. on Friday at 9:30 pm. entering mid-shoe, because I saw high straight runs and zz's. I doubled my buy-in of 20 units after first shoe.

But, then the next shoe and all the other shoes until 3:00 am showed High 2s and 3s. I switched from playing BaS40M1 to BaOTB4L in the second shoe and averaged 6 to 8 units/shoe.

I mentioned to the floor supervisor, that the shoes are quite random and he admitted that's how we order them already Preshuffled.

Be a Tracker and Hunt wisely!

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Watch out for high 2s Mike!

Also when you get home please also see how BaS40 would have done and please let me know.

It is a very hard call for me between BaS40 and BaS40M1

M1 bets the lowest while S40 seems to cover more situations with fewer progs.

I just can't predict. I think all we can do is play and see which truly does the best.

Of course, it needs to be proven with some real shoe comparisons, but I also think it is likely S40 would be used much more frequently than S40M1. I would be very cautious in trying to make S40M1 a base strategy -- it is much better suited to be used in opportunistic situations. The shoes we typically get in Vegas are loaded with 2s. S40 handles these nicely while also killing what is the biggest weakness of OTB4L (ZZ). S40M1 will struggle to win in shoes rich in 2s. Now we also see shoes in Vegas which are perfect for S40M1 (or TBL) which include lots of 1s, ZZ and longer streaks. But when the 2s are coming, you need to be in OTB4L or S40.

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But, then the next shoe and all the other shoes until 3:00 am showed High 2s and 3s. I switched from playing BaS40M1 to BaOTB4L in the second shoe and averaged 6 to 8 units/shoe.

That was really nice. However while we are still waiting for Ellis instructions, I wonder how did you handle RUNs for the BaOTB4L? Can you also share with us your experience?

a) Tested Streak meets with another Streak or ZZ

B) Tested ZZ meets with another ZZ or Streak

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Played Coconut Creek in FL today. Shoes were so heavy in 1s that I didn't play 50 hands in 3 shoes. Got out of the casino +30, of that about a third was purple because they were so heavy in 1s that I increased from 100 to 200 to 500 during the coarse of the play.

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.  Figure out a way to win at baccarat that fits your lifestyle, you don't have to eat fish anymore!

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Played Coconut Creek in FL today. Shoes were so heavy in 1s that I didn't play 50 hands in 3 shoes. Got out of the casino +30, of that about a third was purple because they were so heavy in 1s that I increased from 100 to 200 to 500 during the coarse of the play.

Extremely good Mike! That's my boy!

When we were talking yesterday, I didn't come away totally confident that you completely understand the 0 bet. It is critically important that you get it completely under your belt. It's a trick of math wherein we can throw a simple 123 progression at them that they simply can't beat. So I'm going to reexplain it today and give everyone a way to remember it correctly. I think it was big cash's comment I was trying to answer yesterday when out site went down. But I think I captured it in memory.

Hey, I love it when they throw that super chop stuff at us. They might just as well hand us the money.

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That was really nice. However while we are still waiting for Ellis instructions, I wonder how did you handle RUNs for the BaOTB4L? Can you also share with us your experience?

a) Tested Streak meets with another Streak or ZZ

B) Tested ZZ meets with another ZZ or Streak

aysuen, the key is 7s. 7 or mores are normally one every 2 shoes. If you are seeing more than that life is simple - stay on all runs until you lose.

BUT usually that's not the case. Usually 7+s are low. Now we have to get cute. In this case stay on the first run of the shoe until you lose. But that first run dictates how long you stay on the second run. For instance if the first run goes 5, you get off the second run at 5. The 2nd run dictates how long you stay on the third run and so forth. Now when you get off the run at the predetermined point you bet a 1,2 against the run but no more than that. You usually win your 1,2 prog at either the 1 or 2 level. But when you don't, go back on the run at ONE unit and stay until you lose. Hope it goes 17.

With OTB4L we play runs the same way. Our 0 bet goes OTR, after a 4 whether ST or ZZ. A winning 0 means we bet againt 4s with our secondary 123. A losing 0 means we bet ON 4s. "Win means against, lose means On (OTR)

This way the only way we can lose our secondary prog is if the shoe produces 4 5s W/O a 4 or 4 4s W/O a 5. See that? That's darn near impossible AND we are seldom in a shoe that long. Our avg shoe is only about 30 plays and some of those bets are 0s.

But then we make it even tougher for the casino. Whenever we have a 3 bet pending or even a 2 bet but we hit +5, we quit. You might even think about quitting at +4. Better to walk away with +4 than risk a 3 bet. See that? The idea is to leave them no way to beat us.

OH, re runs: Play your Straights and your ZZs completely indepentent of each other. Don't be using Straights to predict ZZs or vice versa.

I realize it all sounds a little complex at first. But after just a few shoes, you can do this stuff in your sleep - once you fully grasp what the 0 bet is telling you - It is the best thing short of outright cheating! WIN = AGAINST; Lose = ON. Make yourself unbeatable.

Get that all down pat and we can get into some advanced tricks of the trade.

I call it "dodge ball"!

Let's say you note high 3s. High 3s are high danger in both S40M1 and BaS40 BECAUSE high 3s makes it easier to get 4 3s W/O a 2 or 4 3s W/O a 4.

So you dodge it. Don't fart around with 3s when they are high - too dangerous! Instead, simply slip into BaOTB4L which automatically beats all 3s with its primary 1,2 prog. End of problem. You headed it off. See that? You "dodged" it!

See, with +5 we don't use the 3 different systems the same way we use them in NOR. We use them to "dodge" upcoming catastrophy. See that?

While completely mechanical you can STILL use your brain to head off upcoming catastrophy. You can get better and better at this until you become virtually invincible. A bad day becomes +4 rather than -8. But then there are the good days! Right Mike?

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Oh, that reminds me. With OTB4L it is important that you know how to count the length of ZZs correctly. A single 1 produces a ZZ 3, A double 1 produces a ZZ 4 and so forth.

See just as a straight run must always begin with an opposite, A ZZ run must always begin with a repeat. Just about every Bac book gets this wrong. They end up short changing ZZ runs. Then they end up saying straight runs go longer than ZZs. Idiots, we are surrounded by idiots. ZZs go exactly as long as straights. There are just as many ZZ 5s as there are ST 5s. You just need to know how to count the darn things properly.

It is no wonder the average player loses at this game far more than the game odds dictate. Their heads are full of misinformation. They have no clue!

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aysuen, the key is 7s. 7 or mores are normally one every 2 shoes. If you are seeing more than that life is simple - stay on all runs until you lose.

BUT usually that's not the case. Usually 7+s are low. Now we have to get cute. In this case stay on the first run of the shoe until you lose. But that first run dictates how long you stay on the second run. For instance if the first run goes 5, you get off the second run at 5. The 2nd run dictates how long you stay on the third run and so forth. Now when you get off the run at the predetermined point you bet a 1,2 against the run but no more than that. You usually win your 1,2 prog at either the 1 or 2 level. But when you don't, go back on the run at ONE unit and stay until you lose. Hope it goes 17.

With OTB4L we play runs the same way. Our 0 bet goes OTR, after a 4 whether ST or ZZ. A winning 0 means we bet againt 4s with our secondary 123. A losing 0 means we bet ON 4s. "Win means against, lose means On (OTR)

This way the only way we can lose our secondary prog is if the shoe produces 4 5s W/O a 4 or 4 4s W/O a 5. See that? That's darn near impossible AND we are seldom in a shoe that long. Our avg shoe is only about 30 plays and some of those bets are 0s.

But then we make it even tougher for the casino. Whenever we have a 3 bet pending or even a 2 bet but we hit +5, we quit. You might even think about quitting at +4. Better to walk away with +4 than risk a 3 bet. See that? The idea is to leave them no way to beat us.

OH, re runs: Play your Straights and your ZZs completely indepentent of each other. Don't be using Straights to predict ZZs or vice versa.

I realize it all sounds a little complex at first. But after just a few shoes, you can do this stuff in your sleep - once you fully grasp what the 0 bet is telling you - It is the best thing short of outright cheating! WIN = AGAINST; Lose = ON. Make yourself unbeatable.

Get that all down pat and we can get into some advanced tricks of the trade.

I call it "dodge ball"!

Let's say you note high 3s. High 3s are high danger in both S40M1 and BaS40 BECAUSE high 3s makes it easier to get 4 3s W/O a 2 or 4 3s W/O a 4.

So you dodge it. Don't fart around with 3s when they are high - too dangerous! Instead, simply slip into BaOTB4L which automatically beats all 3s with its primary 1,2 prog. End of problem. You headed it off. See that? You "dodged" it!

See, with +5 we don't use the 3 different systems the same way we use them in NOR. We use them to "dodge" upcoming catastrophy. See that?

While completely mechanical you can STILL use your brain to head off upcoming catastrophy. You can get better and better at this until you become virtually invincible. A bad day becomes +4 rather than -8. But then there are the good days! Right Mike?

Ellis, this is a great explanation of how to play BaOTB4L. Those who have been asking for -- give it a careful read. This is exactly how I played OTB4L with the secondary progression a week ago in Vegas. Shoes there are often heavy in 2s and 3s -- of the 12 shoes I played, I used this version of OTB4L for all or part of 8 shoes. It is very difficult NOT to get to +5 from all the 1s, 2s and 3s, even while working through 2 separate secondary progressions (ZZ and straight runs).

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Ellis, this is a great explanation of how to play BaOTB4L. Those who have been asking for -- give it a careful read. This is exactly how I played OTB4L with the secondary progression a week ago in Vegas. Shoes there are often heavy in 2s and 3s -- of the 12 shoes I played, I used this version of OTB4L for all or part of 8 shoes. It is very difficult NOT to get to +5 from all the 1s, 2s and 3s, even while working through 2 separate secondary progressions (ZZ and straight runs).

Thanks John! I still can't get a firm grip on which of the 3 Ba systems is the most common, ie., which should we base with for preshuffled cards?

I'm thinking BaS40 but I just can't make that call comfortably yet.

Please let me know what your own play tells you.

And your post is correct! Players don't yet grasp the high hit rate of the secondary prog arrangement. Or our ability to play Dodge Ball with the casino. You can get damn near invincible!

Thanks!

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Thanks John! I still can't get a firm grip on which of the 3 Ba systems is the most common, ie., which should we base with for preshuffled cards?

I'm thinking BaS40 but I just can't make that call comfortably yet.

Please let me know what your own play tells you.

And your post is correct! Players don't yet grasp the high hit rate of the secondary prog arrangement. Or our ability to play Dodge Ball with the casino. You can get damn near invincible!

Thanks!

Need more time/play/practice to figure it out, but logic tells me that if you had to pick one to start with it would be BaS40, with BaOTB4L a close second choice. S40 is a safe way to start, knowing that it is EASY to slide into OTB4L if the shoe starts with 2s and 3s (love the "dodge ball" terminology). Also, moving from S40 to S40M1 is a super easy transition if the shoe starts with 1s and longer streaks (no 2s). Without any knowledege, I would not start with S40M1 as 2s are just too common and both of the other choices handles 2s.

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Need more time/play/practice to figure it out, but logic tells me that if you had to pick one to start with it would be BaS40, with BaOTB4L a close second choice. S40 is a safe way to start, knowing that it is EASY to slide into OTB4L if the shoe starts with 2s and 3s (love the "dodge ball" terminology). Also, moving from S40 to S40M1 is a super easy transition if the shoe starts with 1s and longer streaks (no 2s). Without any knowledege, I would not start with S40M1 as 2s are just too common and both of the other choices handles 2s.

Right, exactly my thoughts. All we can do is wait and see.

Right, BaS40M1 gets you into a lot of secondary progs but it is rare to lose one.

On the other hand it bets lower with its 10123 prog.

I can't help but think about that 64 play shoe that hit +14 or whatever with only one 2 bet in the entire shoe.

I have a lot of experience with BaS40 so I know what to expect

but I have very little with BaS40M1 and I have no idea what to expect long term. Maybe that shoe was just a fluke.

Mike's giving it a tryout. We'll see how he does.

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