# A stupid question....

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I will give it a try !!

I am sorry , but I am having trouble uploading and attaching the diagram for this post.

Scenario 1 a sequence of b1312

the bets starting at play 3 are B1 B2 B1 P2

since the third bet won our next bet

is 2 opposite the winning bank bet

This is just a normal S40 opposite bet

The last bets do what a single 3 unit bet used

to do and we are even.

If the 4th bet bet loses we are down 4 instead of 6

going on the run.

If we were playing m2 we would be down 3 going on the run.

Scenario 2 a sequence of b1412

starting at play 3 are B1 B2 B1 P0

since the third bet Lost our next bet

is on the run . 0 if it is our first on the run bet

We are down 4 going on the run.

Overall our worst case is down 4

Does this help ?

Thanks Wendell it most certainly did help a lot now I'm back on track

I yell "winner winner chicken dinner on all naturals"

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Any chance you could take a stab at this one:

B423212321

B2171111114

B411118211

Ok, I played this one out all four ways. Here is the first three. image2014_05_20_08_56_580001.pdf

I'm not completely comfortable with how I played this one out in S40M1, I stayed on all runs until a loss and when my ATR lost I went back OTR and stayed till it lost. I still think that if you get on the run so early with this method, you can stay OTR till a loss. Just my preference right now, make your own call on how to play them.

Here is the shoe played out S40M3. image2014_05_20_08_57_290001.pdf

Losing that progression really causes a problem in my mind following the +5 system. If I set a 5 unit stop loss, I can't even lose the primary progression before I'm stopped out. I need to play it out following Glenn's conservative survival rules and see what happens.

As you can see, BaOTB4L method is the only one that didn't get crushed early and was able to move along nicely for a good win.

Please point out any differences or mistakes and we can discuss.

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Ok, I played this one out all four ways. Here is the first three. [ATTACH]2981[/ATTACH]

I'm not completely comfortable with how I played this one out in S40M1, I stayed on all runs until a loss and when my ATR lost I went back OTR and stayed till it lost. I still think that if you get on the run so early with this method, you can stay OTR till a loss. Just my preference right now, make your own call on how to play them.

Here is the shoe played out S40M3. [ATTACH]2982[/ATTACH]

Losing that progression really causes a problem in my mind following the +5 system. If I set a 5 unit stop loss, I can't even lose the primary progression before I'm stopped out. I need to play it out following Glenn's conservative survival rules and see what happens.

As you can see, BaOTB4L method is the only one that didn't get crushed early and was able to move along nicely for a good win.

Please point out any differences or mistakes and we can discuss.

Thanks Gman,

Yes, I was hoping the S40M3 would have performed better. Maybe it can if played in "conservative mode"....

btw - I played this shoe starting at hand 5 (the first opposite) using BaS40 and didn't fare well so I switched to BaOTB4L mid-shoe only to find that BaS40 was becoming dominant. That's the whole reason S40M3 came to mind to try and catch a bit of both.

Sorry guys, I'm still looking for that "go to" default system that could catch a few of each type of shoe and get to +5 units. Maybe in vain.....

FWIW - if you start at hand 6 (after you notice the 1st opposite at hand 5) using S40M3 1230123 I get a +5 by hand 20. Could that be a hint in the right direction? For this shoe anyway, it seems that if you wait for the iar runs to exhaust themselves you could capitalize on the ZZ / S40M3 method. Anyone else seeing this?

Regards,

Glenn

"Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine per cent perspiration...do your homework" Thomas A. Edison

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Thanks Gman,

Yes, I was hoping the S40M3 would have performed better. Maybe it can if played in "conservative mode"....

btw - I played this shoe starting at hand 5 (the first opposite) using BaS40 and didn't fare well so I switched to BaOTB4L mid-shoe only to find that BaS40 was becoming dominant. That's the whole reason S40M3 came to mind to try and catch a bit of both.

Sorry guys, I'm still looking for that "go to" default system that could catch a few of each type of shoe and get to +5 units. Maybe in vain.....

FWIW - if you start at hand 6 (after you notice the 1st opposite at hand 5) using S40M3 1230123 I get a +5 by hand 20. Could that be a hint in the right direction? For this shoe anyway, it seems that if you wait for the iar runs to exhaust themselves you could capitalize on the ZZ / S40M3 method. Anyone else seeing this?

I have thought for some time that what we are trying to do is get past these "weeds" to the parts of the shoe that we like . There is not much money in betting ATR (beyond 1-2).

A lot of my recent wins have come from hitting a moderate to long run close to the top (zz or ST). otherwise i would have been lucky to be even.

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Hi gman,

Try BaOTB4LM3. Progression 2-3-4. My average has been well in the 20's, most of the shoes haven't even reached the secondary progression. If so I accept the loss of 9 units and start over. You will be surprise that your wins are high enough to accept some loses.

Be a Tracker and Hunt wisely!

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Hi gman,

Try BaOTB4LM3. Progression 2-3-4. My average has been well in the 20's, most of the shoes haven't even reached the secondary progression. If so I accept the loss of 9 units and start over. You will be surprise that your wins are high enough to accept some loses.

I'll try it, but just to clarify, the 2-3-4 progression you mention above is the secondary progression correct? So the progression would look like 1230234?

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Started using it on Sat. 05/17/2014 between 2:30 pm to 6:00 PM at the Tampa Hard Rock Casino playing conservatively 1-2-3-0-2-3-4, after 2 shoes I realized the progression never went passed 0.

Be a Tracker and Hunt wisely!

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