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How to achieve a 100% win rate with MDB!


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Quizzical1
Here's a shoe for practice: [ATTACH]2983[/ATTACH]

See how you would play it out different ways based on the SAP counts and the trend directions.

Thanks Gman,

That was going to be my next question lol.....what's the proper way to play the shoe.

Regards,

Glenn

"Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine per cent perspiration...do your homework" Thomas A. Edison

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Thanks Gman,

That was going to be my next question lol.....what's the proper way to play the shoe.

I don't know if it's the "proper" way, but it's the way I did it. Lol! You know how some are on here, if it didn't come from Ellis it's just a pointless post.

My initial thoughts on this particular shoe are, as you begin to see the SAP count get established by the middle of the first column, to start BaS40M1 with the rising 1's line and increase in the +4 line, but as the shoe progresses towards the end of the second column I see a trend moving toward the 2's and 3's line so I'm looking for a system change to BaOTB4L that I think would carry you well through the third column. What do you think?

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Jim Files
I don't know if it's the "proper" way, but it's the way I did it. Lol! You know how some are on here, if it didn't come from Ellis it's just a pointless post.

My initial thoughts on this particular shoe are, as you begin to see the SAP count get established by the middle of the first column, to start BaS40M1 with the rising 1's line and increase in the +4 line, but as the shoe progresses towards the end of the second column I see a trend moving toward the 2's and 3's line so I'm looking for a system change to BaOTB4L that I think would carry you well through the third column. What do you think?

Trust me gman72, your posts and ideas are very much appreciated! Please keep up the good work and keep posting!

Best regards,

Jim

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Quizzical1
Trust me gman72, your posts and ideas are very much appreciated! Please keep up the good work and keep posting!

Best regards,

Jim

Ditto!!!!!

Regards,

Glenn

"Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine per cent perspiration...do your homework" Thomas A. Edison

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Quizzical1
I don't know if it's the "proper" way, but it's the way I did it. Lol! You know how some are on here, if it didn't come from Ellis it's just a pointless post.

My initial thoughts on this particular shoe are, as you begin to see the SAP count get established by the middle of the first column, to start BaS40M1 with the rising 1's line and increase in the +4 line, but as the shoe progresses towards the end of the second column I see a trend moving toward the 2's and 3's line so I'm looking for a system change to BaOTB4L that I think would carry you well through the third column. What do you think?

Yes, I was thinking along the same lines also. My main concern is really when to start betting assuming you sat down at hand 1. If this MDB method requires no table selection, then anyone "skilled in the art" should be able to start betting after "X" hands. What would the minimum be? I'm assuming when a fair portion of the SAP chart is filled in to offer a direction??

Regards,

Glenn

"Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine per cent perspiration...do your homework" Thomas A. Edison

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Yes, I was thinking along the same lines also. My main concern is really when to start betting assuming you sat down at hand 1. If this MDB method requires no table selection, then anyone "skilled in the art" should be able to start betting after "X" hands. What would the minimum be? I'm assuming when a fair portion of the SAP chart is filled in to offer a direction??

Back in the "BaOTB4L +5 Practice" thread, in post #32, Ellis talks about waiting to start a shoe till we see what events a shoe is high in and low in. We can do this with SAP. He refers to looking at seven plays as an example to see the direction the shoe is headed.

Here is that last shoe I posted played out, starting after 7 events at play 16 with BaS40M1. I switch systems to BaOTB4L at play 39. Although I never would have gotten that far, because I'd have been out of the shoe with my +5 way before then. :biggrin:

image2014_05_21_14_44_480001.pdf

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Quizzical1
Back in the "BaOTB4L +5 Practice" thread, in post #32, Ellis talks about waiting to start a shoe till we see what events a shoe is high in and low in. We can do this with SAP. He refers to looking at seven plays as an example to see the direction the shoe is headed.

Here is that last shoe I posted played out, starting after 7 events at play 16 with BaS40M1. I switch systems to BaOTB4L at play 39. Although I never would have gotten that far, because I'd have been out of the shoe with my +5 way before then. :biggrin:

[ATTACH]2984[/ATTACH]

Thanks!....bragger....;o}

Regards,

Glenn

"Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine per cent perspiration...do your homework" Thomas A. Edison

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newbacplayer
I don't know if it's the "proper" way, but it's the way I did it. Lol! You know how some are on here, if it didn't come from Ellis it's just a pointless post.

My initial thoughts on this particular shoe are, as you begin to see the SAP count get established by the middle of the first column, to start BaS40M1 with the rising 1's line and increase in the +4 line, but as the shoe progresses towards the end of the second column I see a trend moving toward the 2's and 3's line so I'm looking for a system change to BaOTB4L that I think would carry you well through the third column. What do you think?

I appreciate your thoughts and ideas!!! Thanks for posting and keeping things current, accurate, and timely. Greg

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Ellis,

Can you please post some shoes with play by plays using SAP/+5 showing at what point do we choose a +5 system to use? When and why we switch and how we handle the primary or secondary progression in the process of switching? Are there specific "triggers" for each system to switch in a shoe? If so, please explain.

Your very first post when you started the introduction to +5 thread you said the most important thing for this thread was that you were going to post shoes with play by plays because it's the best way to learn and explain things. Please don't forget that. Thanks.

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djricardo
Ellis,

Can you please post some shoes with play by plays using SAP/+5 showing at what point do we choose a +5 system to use? When and why we switch and how we handle the primary or secondary progression in the process of switching? Are there specific "triggers" for each system to switch in a shoe? If so, please explain.

Your very first post when you started the introduction to +5 thread you said the most important thing for this thread was that you were going to post shoes with play by plays because it's the best way to learn and explain things. Please don't forget that. Thanks.

Yup Ellis... I would also truly appreciate that too.

And a new thread dedicated for this purpose without the Q&A there.

Thank you & Best Regards,

DJ

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First, Hey gman, don't be overly concerned about guys not responding to your posts. Maybe you are just too far ahead of them??? The opposite is worse - when everybody responds to your posts.

Next: I played this for 5 years FULL TIME in the casinos everywhere. With my playing partner, Ann. We won nearly every shoe. It paid our way for me to take her on a world tour. See, my family had died in 1994. Ann, whom I had met when 30 Rock sent me to Arkansas to revive a million SQ Furniture factory in Truman AR. We kept in touch and when my family died, she came to NY to take care of me. I was well traveled back then having worked for Singer International for many years. But Ann was a cotton farmer and factory worker in the Arkansas flatlands. She had never even seen a mountain or an ocean or a bottle of wine or a steak or a palm tree, or flown in an airplane. It was fun seeing all this again but through her eyes. We started at Foxwood to A.C. to Vegas, to the Gulf Coast, to The Bahamas, to the tip of the Baha where she saw her first whale. Ha but they had no casinos in Mexico. So we went to the Canaries - then started the whole thing over again - all paid for by this very same system I'm teaching you.

Except, we ONLY played S40 and we used a 1 bet in place of today's 0 bet.

We had about a 90% win rate and played double blacks which is about the same as playing $1000 chips today.

And like the Mkt Mgr at Flamingo showed Keith and me on their computer system during an argument over comps. "Yes, we will comp everyone in your group! But not Ellis, BECAUSE as you can clearly see right here in his record, Ellis, while a very frequent player, hasn't had a losing day in any of our 40 casinos in the last 20 years." End of argument!

Look, if Ann can learn this stuff, so can you guys. It is not difficult, just different. A cotton farmer for crying out loud.

So, OK, I replaced the secondary prog 1 bet with a 0 bet. And I added S40M1 and BaOTB4L to get our win rate higher than 90%. While BaS40, by itself, wins some 90% of shoes, some shoes are more suited to BaOTB4L or BaS40M1. And I think the addition of those two systems can get us from 90% to about 95%. Now I think the addition of SAP can get us even higher.

OK, forget what a system doesn't like - because the 0 bet takes care of what systems don't like. Just let SAP tell you what event is high and what is second high or tied for high. We are looking at TWO things because each system likes TWO things.

High:

1's and 2s = BaS40

2s and 3s = BaOTB4L

1's and 4+s = baS40M1 (We could even say 1's and 3+s = baS40M1) it's just that it likes 4s more than 3s.

That covers the water front.

Forget S40M3 for now. I see no way to include it W/O invoking 3 bets. Lets get you playing the basics right first.

OK first we need a base system - a default system - a system you play when you don't know what else to do - a system to start shoes with.

BaS40 has already proved itself. We started every shoe at play 2 with S40. Can you improve on 90% by waiting? I'm thinking probably not.

OK, I'd like everyone to go back and make a copy of that practice shoe gman was good enough to post with his SAP counts correctly filled in - the shoe that starts B12414. Post #25.

OK, now you should be looking at an unplayed shoe with all the SAP counts filled in. It's all ready to play!

And it is a particularly strange and difficult shoe - good for practice.

Let's play it together:

Start at play 2 with BaS40.

So OK, we win a 1 on P and a 1,2 on B

But then we lose an early 1,2 on P so we bet a red 0 on B at play 7 (0s always go OTR (On The Run))

So, the 0 wins which means that we are going to bet the next 3 stays 3 UNLESS we change systems meanwhile.

So OK we always stay on the first 4 run of the shoe until we lose. The 4 stays 4 and we lose. But that establishes that we get off the next run at 4 no matter what system we are playing. Rus are separate from systems.

So OK we just lost a 1 bet at play 8 bringing our score to -2.

-2 means we are most likely playing the wrong system.

What is SAP telling us?

4s are high.

What likes 4s? Only one system - S40M1.

So we start over with S40M1 and win a 1 at play 9 improving our score to -1.

Then we lose the 1 on P at play 10

Bringing us to a winning 0 at play 11.

What does that mean? That we will bet 1 unit that the next 2 stays 2.

Play 12 we always bet 3s go to 4 4except when we have a super abundance of 3s.

Play 13, we bet the 4 stays 4 because the last 4 stayed 4.

Look at SAP! 4s went to 8 and 1's are tied for 2nd high absolutely confirming S40M1 which likes 4+s and 1's.

We lose our regular opposite bet at 14 bringing us to a winning red 1 at play 15.

That completes our secondary prog so we are back to opposites at 16.

We lose our 1 at 17 bringing us to 0 on P at play 18.

Our 0 wins meaning we bet the next 2 stays 2.

19: We bet our standard 3 goes to 4.

But it doesn't so back to opposites and we win at play 20 bringing our score to 0.

Then we win the next 7 opposites bringing our score to +7.

Since we didn't hit +5 until after play 15 (or after 15 plays from where we started) we would have quit at play 25 with +5.

Some might argue since I'm on a run I'll capture +4 and stay until I lose.

Fine, they win the argument THIS time and finish at +6 at play 28.

But see, we are a lot more interested in a million dollars than 1 extra unit.

So OK we are done with that shoe - mission accomplished. +5 at play 25 - better than avg.

But lets play it out anyway just for practice.

If you do everything right you lose a red 3 at play 37. You would likely quit right there at 0.

But you didn't watch the 5 bet win nearly every time for 5 years full time. I did.

So I would make and win the 5 bet at play40 bringing my score to +3. I'm back.

AND, the shoe changed drastically starting at play 37. 1's and 2s are coming on strong.

SAP is screaming S40! I'm not going to wait for them to catch up.

At play 45, I just watched a 21211 pattern, I'm switching right now

I win my 1,2 and I'm out with +5 for the 4th time at play 46.

If I stay in it goes clear to +9 before faltering.

Not bad for a tough shoe. I'll bet I'm the only player at the table that beats this shoe.

MDB guided by SAP. Very strong!

Give me a while and I'll post it for you.

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Look, everthing in a casino is rigged. It is a fake world. They have their tricks. But we have OUR tricks. I pretty much know theirs after 30+ years of casinos. But they don't know ours. Here's the deal. Our tricks need to exploit their tricks. THAT is the name of the game whether BJ or Bac! Every Mathematician in the world says you can't beat random. Bull! I've been doing it in BJ for 30 years. Random cards are the BEST cards you'll see all day. All I'm doing here is applying a little BJ logic to Bac. They want to cheat and throw random at us? Good, been there, done that. We will throw a progression at them that random can't beat. Why not? Because random doesn't do anything consistently. Our progression DOES. It bets on inconsistency. It bets that the shoe can't do the same thing 4 times in a row. Why not? Because it's random. 4 times in a row is NOT random. See that?

Think about it. The shoe is telling us through SAP which system is best. Then, through our 0 bet, the shoe is telling us the best way to bet. We are letting the shoe tell us everything. The shoe is telling us how to beat it. We usually will. And usually is the name of the game.

Ok, it will take a bit of doing but I've done this before.

I'm going to post this entire shoe in a single column.

That gives me the room to insert the SAP counts and the explanation of each play on the same line as the play itself. You'll see.

When you do everything right, everything is purely mechanical. No decisions. Once the first card is dealt, the die is cast. You are just a spectator.

It is their card arrangement vs your system.

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Before we get into that promised play by play our new member DeanJ needs some help on his 0 bets and how to react to them. Here is a shoe he played last night. Dean entered his SAP counts correctly on his card and I didn't bother to copy them in this scan but it was high 1's and 2s all the way. 4+s made a run but never high enough for us to react to so it was BaS40 all the way. Some might object to my 3 bet against the run but this is how I usually play them. But I would have been out of the shoe before that anyway.

post-8-14500262315958_thumb.jpg

I would have got out when I hit +10 the second time.

The secondary progs are in red so you can examine them separately. Note how I reacted to my 0 bets.

3s trigger secondary progs with BaS40. So your red entries occur ONLY under 3s.

A losing 1,2 on opposites triggers a red secondary prog entry.

When a 0 wins you bet AGAINST the next 3 - that the 3 will stay 3.

When a 0 loses you bet the next 3 will go 4

This way you can only lose your secondary prog if the shoe produces 4 (sometimes 5) 3s W/O a 4 or 4 4+s W/O a 3 - both highly unlikely.

The first run of 4+ I stay on it until I lose. From there, each run of 4+ determines how long I stay on the next run.

Dean, it's 100% mechanical. THIS is how your shoe should have been played.

Stay out of casinos until you've got all this down pat.

Oh, the only reason I continued past +5 was because I hit +5 before play 15.

Where I said "good quit point" when I hit +10 the first time, right after that I hit +10 the 2nd time. That is virtually a MANDATORY quit point.

While you were playing the rest of the shoe, I was at the bar celebrating.

BTW Dean is West Coast Canada and a great guy.

Welcome aboard Dean!

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Quizzical1

Ellis,

FWIW, the way I got to remember it is this:

If a 0 bet lOses, go OTR (O in lose and O in OTR) for the 123 bet

If the 0 bet wins, go ATR for the 123 bet

Regards,

Glenn

"Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine per cent perspiration...do your homework" Thomas A. Edison

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Ellis,

FWIW, the way I got to remember it is this:

If a 0 bet lOses, go OTR (O in lose and O in OTR) for the 123 bet

If the 0 bet wins, go ATR for the 123 bet

There, I fixed it up a little. Good way to remember!

Why is this so important?

Because if you get system selection right and know what your 0 bets mean, it's worth a million dollars.

Here is the other important thing again:

High:

1's and 2s = BaS40

2s and 3s = BaOTB4L

1's and 4+s = baS40M1 (We could even say 1's and 3+s = baS40M1) it's just that it likes 4s more than 3s.

The MOST important thing in system selection is what is SAP saying is HIGH.

The second most important thing is what is SAP saying is second high?

True, each system dislikes a certain thing. But see, that's exactly when we bet 0. So we take what each system DOESN'T like right out of the equation. So it no longer matters what they don't like. We only actually bet on what they like. So, if we are playing the right system, every bet we actually make has an advantage.

We are using "trick math". I learned that in BJ.

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I got no reaction the first time I said this but maybe NOW some will get what I'm talking about.

In that last shoe I posted, EVERY secondary prog wins at the 1 bet level.

So WHY are we only betting 1 in that situation?

Are we actually THAT stupid?

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Quizzical1
I got no reaction the first time I said this but maybe NOW some will get what I'm talking about.

In that last shoe I posted, EVERY secondary prog wins at the 1 bet level.

So WHY are we only betting 1 in that situation?

Are we actually THAT stupid?

Are you suggesting we switch to 120234?

Regards,

Glenn

"Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine per cent perspiration...do your homework" Thomas A. Edison

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About starting at play 2 with BaS40:

Sure, some are more comfortable waiting.

If you KNOW you are at a streaky table, that might be a good idea.

And, of course, the first shoe of our session we are usually starting mid shoe. Fine.

But IF you have already played that table:

If it was preshuffled cards you are about to play the same cards again (in most casinos)

If it was regular cards, you already know what the blue shoe and red shoe is doing.

Perhaps something there is telling you to start with something other than BaS40.

But otherwise you are starting with BaS40.

Look at the math:

Half of all shoes start with a 1iar.

3/4 start with a 1 or a 2.

You are betting a 1,2 prog on opposites.

You win that prog 3/4 of the time.

I like those odds.

Do you think you can improve on those odds by waiting?

What exactly are you waiting for that produces better odds ?????????????

Maybe the shoe will produce high 2s and 3s. That is going to take a while.

Maybe high 4+s. That will take even longer.

See, by the time you start, I'll usually already be at +2 or +3.

THEN I'll react to high 2s and 3s or high 4s or whatever.

Sure, an early start might backfire. BUT no matter where you start it might backfire.

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Here is one that got dean. It is one of the 25% that starts with a 3+.

Even if we start with BaS40, at play 6, 3s are at 4 and 2s are at 2. 1's and 4+s are a no show.

Decidedly BaOtb4l. The 2nd 2 confirms.

post-8-14500262318147_thumb.jpg

Hmm, he must have been sitting crooked in his chair.

SAP comes through again!

Yeah, yeah, I cheated a little on the stop loss at play 5. But even had I bet 1 there it was an easy +5.

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