How to achieve a 100% win rate with MDB!

[gman72]

Yeah, yeah, I cheated a little on the stop loss at play 5. But even had I bet 1 there it was an easy +5.

If you only bet a 1 until a win, you end up in the same spot without facing a bet that would take you below your -5 stop loss.

[Quizzical1]

If you only bet a 1 until a win, you end up in the same spot without facing a bet that would take you below your -5 stop loss.

That's why I prefer the Conservative play of a 1 unit bet until a win - especially when starting cold from the beginning of a shoe - less initial drawdown.

[ztomsk]

Here is one that got dean. It is one of the 25% that starts with a 3+.

Even if we start with BaS40, at play 6, 3s are at 4 and 2s are at 2. 1's and 4+s are a no show.

Good stuff. Looks like at the end SAP is 8 | 6 | 12 | 0

Would you still continue on with OTBL (if you were to continue on) or would you switch to S40M1? I know 1s and 4+s are better, but 1s and 3s still are ok.

I'm guessing that the right choice is to continue with OTBL. Since 3s are still high. 1s caught up to outnumber 2s, BUT that was only because of a ZZ run and not because 1s aren't dominating.

So my question is do we not give as much credit for SAP number changes due to a run of some type vs. SAP number changes due to a change in bias?

[Quizzical1]

Good stuff. Looks like at the end SAP is 8 | 6 | 12 | 0

Would you still continue on with OTBL (if you were to continue on) or would you switch to S40M1? I know 1s and 4+s are better, but 1s and 3s still are ok.

I'm guessing that the right choice is to continue with OTBL. Since 3s are still high. 1s caught up to outnumber 2s, BUT that was only because of a ZZ run and not because 1s aren't dominating.

So my question is do we not give as much credit for SAP number changes due to a run of some type vs. SAP number changes due to a change in bias?

Wouldn't SAP be 7-6-12-0?

I think the count only increments the hand after it establishes it.

[ztomsk]

Wouldn't SAP be 7-6-12-0?

I think the count only increments the hand after it establishes it.

Yea your right good catch haha. I counted too fast... on my phone with a small screen. Sorry for the inaccuracy!

[Guest]

Wouldn't SAP be 7-6-12-0?

I think the count only increments the hand after it establishes it.

Nevertheless, ztomsk is correct. Both BaOTB4L and BaS40M1 like 3s But 1's are coming on strong. M1 likes all 1's while Ot only likes single 1's. We would at least keep our eye on that evolving situation. Had I switched in the middle of the ending 6ZZ, I would have done significantly better.

[Guest]

If you only bet a 1 until a win, you end up in the same spot without facing a bet that would take you below your -5 stop loss.

Correct! Excellent point! I was taking unnecessary risks with the first 2 2 bets. We don't need to take such risks when we are only going for +5.

[Guest]

This is great! THIS is the kind of discussion that improves everyone's play. And that is the whole point of this forum.

Hmm, but where's Dean?

[LOU30]

Hi Ellis,

The red zero bet at play #22 on deans shoe on post #50,shouldn't it be on P OTR following the ZZ run? Or have I got it wrong...

Regards Lou.

[ECD]

Hi Ellis,

The red zero bet at play #22 on deans shoe on post #50,shouldn't it be on P OTR following the ZZ run? Or have I got it wrong...

Regards Lou.

Lou, it was the first loss of the 1,2 progression to a ZZ, so a 0 bet is called for. When playing OTBL, you really have two separate secondary progressions - one for streaks and one for ZZ.

[Guest]

Lou, it was the first loss of the 1,2 progression to a ZZ, so a 0 bet is called for. When playing OTBL, you really have two separate secondary progressions - one for streaks and one for ZZ.

way2fast, do you have any Vegas shoes we could play? I'd like to play some we KNOW are preshuffled. All I would need is our short hand format.

[Guest]

Hi Ellis,

The red zero bet at play #22 on deans shoe on post #50,shouldn't it be on P OTR following the ZZ run? Or have I got it wrong...

Regards Lou.

Good catch Lou! The 0 bet indeed should have been OTR, therefore on P. I was out of the shoe and not paying attention.

[Bobby]

way2fast, do you have any Vegas shoes we could play? I'd like to play some we KNOW are preshuffled. All I would need is our short hand format.

Ellis, if you need Vegas shoes you can go to the first post of Norm's thread "60 shoes from may 6 vegas trip". There is a PDF with all 60 shoes.

RIP Norm

[DeanJ]

Hey Everyone It's me Dean

Just want to say thanks for all the positive info and feedback from this forum and I will be up and running very soon once I get a better handle on this MDB.

I know it's the bomb at winning and I just am getting the key ingredients of the approach.

Will be back in the winners circle very soon with an update I promise:)

Thanks again Ellis

Dean

[stevep]

Ellis in your post #1 you talked about SAP and listed #s 1 thru 7+. In all of the shoes listed the SAP columns only go to 4+. Have you changed your mind and you are only going to 4+ instead of 7+?

[newbacplayer]

I've been playing a whole pile of old shoes with this new method, with very positive results. The combination of SAP with the Ba+5 methods seems to be very conservative with low potential losses and high likelihood of hitting the +5. Great results.

I would like to hear feedback on the following shoe, as I'm having quite a bit of challenge with it:

B13622114

P13143125

P1

[Guest]

Ellis in your post #1 you talked about SAP and listed #s 1 thru 7+. In all of the shoes listed the SAP columns only go to 4+. Have you changed your mind and you are only going to 4+ instead of 7+?

Yes Steve. I mentioned it someplace. With MDB going past 4+ with SAP only effects how we play runs. I don't think SAP is any better or even any different on runs than the way we currently play them. Plus, we can go around the casino and check what 7s are doing. SAP can't. So we might as well keep our score card as simple as possible.

[Guest]

I've been playing a whole pile of old shoes with this new method, with very positive results. The combination of SAP with the Ba+5 methods seems to be very conservative with low potential losses and high likelihood of hitting the +5. Great results.

I would like to hear feedback on the following shoe, as I'm having quite a bit of challenge with it:

B13622114

P13143125

P1

Music to my ears. Right, only a few will actually get what we are doing because it is so mathematical. But it is not important to "get it". I think everyone can agree that BAC is 90% selecting the right system. So we can't trust ourselves with a task that important. So we let SAP do it mathematically for us.

Once we are playing the right system, the system itself constructs a mathematical entrapment out of extremely low bets. It is close to impossible for the casino to navigate around our entrapment. I don't know exactly what our shoe win rate will turn out to be with either regular or preshuffled cards. All I can tell you is that when we learn to do everything right (Dean) I think our win rate will be the highest ever in the history of Baccarat.

But it doesn't really matter a whole lot. Win rate only determines how long we are at each step in the million dollar schedule. The higher the win rate, the quicker we accomplish each step. We are going to get through all the steps eventually no matter what. It is just that we'd like to do it as quick as possible. I think the combined power of SAP and +5 does just that.

And there's not a darn thing the casinos can do about it.

I'll try your shoe but I owe another play by play first.

[Guest]

Ellis, if you need Vegas shoes you can go to the first post of Norm's thread "60 shoes from may 6 vegas trip". There is a PDF with all 60 shoes.

RIP Norm

Right. I'm just not 100% sure that all were from that one Vegas trip because Norm was also playing the Gulf coast and Florida.

By the way, I ran into Norm 3 or 4 days into that Vegas trip. He dropped in on our Seminar. At that point he was $170,000 up for the trip! Norm paved the way for all of us.

[Bobby]

Ellis, yes you said you were going to post gman's shoe with play by plays. Thanks.

[Guest]

Ellis, yes you said you were going to post gman's shoe with play by plays. Thanks.

Here you go.

[BronxAl]

"Right. I'm just not 100% sure that all were from that one Vegas trip because Norm was also playing the Gulf coast and Florida.

By the way, I ran into Norm 3 or 4 days into that Vegas trip. He dropped in on our Seminar. At that point he was $170,000 up for the trip! Norm paved the way for all of us."

That is amazing Norm only played 2Hi.

[Bobby]

Ellis, thanks for posting the shoe with play by plays. Hope to see more.

I understand how the "0" bet is mechanical and tells you exactly how to play the SP, but I'm still not sure of the "mechanical" decision making when it comes to switching systems in relation to the SAP counts. Do you switch right away when one count goes higher then another? If the 1's and 2's have a high SAP count we are playing S40. So when the 3 SAP count passes the 1 and 2's count would we switch right away on the next hand to OTB4L? The switching seems more of a subjective rather then a mechanical decision. Can you please give us some "mechanical" rules for switching such as the "0" bet for the SP? Thanks.

[DeanJ]

Hi all

This is a snapshot of the tough shoes up here in Canada....

Any feedback would be appreciated, thanks.

[Guest]

Hi all

This is a snapshot of the tough shoes up here in Canada....

Any feedback would be appreciated, thanks.

Well, here's the 2 shoes from the tote board.

The 2nd shoe was a toss up between BaS40 and BaS40M1 so I played it both ways;