How to achieve a 100% win rate with MDB!

[gman72]

I keep reading the if we get to +5 within the 1st 15 plays we capture 4 units and continue to play. If that is the case how do we continue to play the shoes that I see here where we get to +5 but never capture 4 and even though by the end of the shoe we may be ahead of +5 but we keep violating capture 4?

Keep in mind, the shoes played on here are for practice, demonstration purposes. That is why the shoe is played completely out. If playing those shoes live in the casino, you would follow the +5 win/loss stops. So most of those shoes would not be played all the way out. Here we do it just to show and practice the correct way to play the particular systems. Go back and review and see how many would be winners and or losers and if you would have gotten the +5 or captured the +4. I believe you will see that most would have accomplished this, but obviously not all.

[Guest]

Keep in mind, the shoes played on here are for practice, demonstration purposes. That is why the shoe is played completely out. If playing those shoes live in the casino, you would follow the +5 win/loss stops. So most of those shoes would not be played all the way out. Here we do it just to show and practice the correct way to play the particular systems. Go back and review and see how many would be winners and or losers and if you would have gotten the +5 or captured the +4. I believe you will see that most would have accomplished this, but obviously not all.

Absolutely correct! However this shoe was so full of 2's (8) and 3s (9) that I personally would likely have played right thru the +4 capture at plays 18 and 22 and quit at +10. with a highest bet of 2 and a PA of 21%. We don't often get shoes that good.

9 3s is a SAP count of 36 for crying out loud. 8 2s is 16. A combined count of 52 all favoring OTB4L. THAT is why I didn't quit this particular shoe at +4.

[Guest]

Hi Ellis,

Thank you for your comments.

I am beginning to see that if I am NOT playing pre shuffled cards in Vegas then I am basically paddling (to be polite) upwind.

Hmm, you mean "upstream". No, you are not quite seeing the big picture yet. Few are.

I can't yet say whether MDB will do best in regular or preshuffled cards. That is a very complex mathematical question.

I CAN for sure say that NOR does much better in regular cards because preshuffled lacks the bias necessary to support NOR.

We know that regular cards are more biased and preshuffled are less biased and closer to pure random.

Recognize that SAP and our primary prog are playing biases.

Therefore regular cards support our primary prog better so we will have fewer secondary progs. But we can expect a lower % of secondary prog success so it is good we are playing secondary progs less often.

Preshuffled favors random so we can expect our Primary prog to fail more often. But we can expect our secondary prog to succeed more often because it bets against random.

How this will all wash out as to which card type is most favorable to MDB nobody knows at this point. I'm guessing about equal.

So far we have played both preshuffled and regular cards and we have done very well against both. I'm thinking a far higher win rate than anyone has ever seen before. - no matter the card type.

But the first step is to get everyone playing right. We aren't there yet. Shoe 4 proved that. Once you grasp the overall concept and why we do what we do, shoe 4 is a snap.

[Wendel]

Hmm, you mean "upstream".

upstream on a river, upwind on a lake

[ECD]

Ha, not so fast way2fast! 3s emerge hi at play 9. Go with BaOTB4L right then and there. The next 3,2,2 confirms big time.

Haha! So I played this shoe like you, with one very big difference. At play 9 SAP was 3,2,4,0. Based on your previous posts, I then switched to S40M1, not OTBL. I switched to OTBL a few plays later when SAP was 3,4,8,0. It stayed OTBL for the remainder of the shoe and my plays are the same as yours. But the 4 additional units you got from going to OTBL earlier made all the difference in this shoe.

So this is important as some of the previous information about looking at the two highest counts apears to be what you would do later in the shoe, but at the beginning, one should go with the highest single count? Why not switch to OTBL at play 3 then with SAP of 0,2,0,0? Is it because we would only switch from the S40 start if our score is going down, and then for the first switch just follow the highest SAP count? Switches after that would follow the two highest? So if 1's are highest - S40; 2s and 3s - OTBL; 4+- S40M1? Lot of little questions in there, but I think it is important to be perfectly clear on the rules if this is in fact to be a mechanical system. There has been ALOT of really great information in this thread, and what you have come up with makes alot of sense based on the math of the game and the trends that occur -- but what's missing are clear rules. We can't say high 1s and 3s use S40M1 in one post and then in another show the correct way is to ignor that rule and just use the highest SAP count. Also, you previously said high 3s play S40M1 -- I'm sure that was a mistake as OTBL nails the 3s with a nice +2 -- but this highlights the need for some clarity (i.e. clear rules) around this approach.

[Guest]

Haha! So I played this shoe like you, with one very big difference. At play 9 SAP was 3,2,4,0. Based on your previous posts, I then switched to S40M1, not OTBL. I switched to OTBL a few plays later when SAP was 3,4,8,0. It stayed OTBL for the remainder of the shoe and my plays are the same as yours. But the 4 additional units you got from going to OTBL earlier made all the difference in this shoe.

So this is important as some of the previous information about looking at the two highest counts apears to be what you would do later in the shoe, but at the beginning, one should go with the highest single count? Why not switch to OTBL at play 3 then with SAP of 0,2,0,0? Is it because we would only switch from the S40 start if our score is going down, and then for the first switch just follow the highest SAP count? Switches after that would follow the two highest? So if 1's are highest - S40; 2s and 3s - OTBL; 4+- S40M1? Lot of little questions in there, but I think it is important to be perfectly clear on the rules if this is in fact to be a mechanical system. There has been ALOT of really great information in this thread, and what you have come up with makes alot of sense based on the math of the game and the trends that occur -- but what's missing are clear rules. We can't say high 1s and 3s use S40M1 in one post and then in another show the correct way is to ignor that rule and just use the highest SAP count. Also, you previously said high 3s play S40M1 -- I'm sure that was a mistake as OTBL nails the 3s with a nice +2 -- but this highlights the need for some clarity (i.e. clear rules) around this approach.

Correct, I made a mistake. With NOR, S40M1 likes 3s. But with MDB our secondary prog occurs in place of 3s. So BaS40M1 neither likes or dislikes 3s. So we need to associate 3s only with OTB4L. It took me a minute to realize that.

[Guest]

Haha! So I played this shoe like you, with one very big difference. At play 9 SAP was 3,2,4,0. Based on your previous posts, I then switched to S40M1, not OTBL. I switched to OTBL a few plays later when SAP was 3,4,8,0. It stayed OTBL for the remainder of the shoe and my plays are the same as yours. But the 4 additional units you got from going to OTBL earlier made all the difference in this shoe.

So this is important as some of the previous information about looking at the two highest counts apears to be what you would do later in the shoe, but at the beginning, one should go with the highest single count? Why not switch to OTBL at play 3 then with SAP of 0,2,0,0? Is it because we would only switch from the S40 start if our score is going down, and then for the first switch just follow the highest SAP count? Switches after that would follow the two highest? So if 1's are highest - S40; 2s and 3s - OTBL; 4+- S40M1? Lot of little questions in there, but I think it is important to be perfectly clear on the rules if this is in fact to be a mechanical system. There has been ALOT of really great information in this thread, and what you have come up with makes alot of sense based on the math of the game and the trends that occur -- but what's missing are clear rules. We can't say high 1s and 3s use S40M1 in one post and then in another show the correct way is to ignor that rule and just use the highest SAP count. Also, you previously said high 3s play S40M1 -- I'm sure that was a mistake as OTBL nails the 3s with a nice +2 -- but this highlights the need for some clarity (i.e. clear rules) around this approach.

Right, I need to start the rules sticky thread - right after I compose a front page MDB sales letter. The general public is still mostly unaware of MDB. I need to change that. Everyone who plays this game would do much better with MDB.

Right again, I didn't react to the opening 2 only because both S40 and OTB4L like 2s.

We can't say don't react to the first event! Suppose it was a 5iar. That would dictate how long we stay on the next run and it would also correctly switch us to BaS40M1. True we don't know the play prior to the shoe start but we KNOW the first event was at least a 5 which is BaS40M1 no matter what and correctly so.

Hopefully we can iron out these minor wrinkles as we post the rules.

[Guest]

upstream on a river, upwind on a lake

Ha, yep!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Quizzical1]

Right, I need to start the rules sticky thread - right after I compose a front page MDB sales letter. The general public is still mostly unaware of MDB. I need to change that. Everyone who plays this game would do much better with MDB.

Right again, I didn't react to the opening 2 only because both S40 and OTB4L like 2s.

We can't say don't react to the first event! Suppose it was a 5iar. That would dictate how long we stay on the next run and it would also correctly switch us to BaS40M1. True we don't know the play prior to the shoe start but we KNOW the first event was at least a 5 which is BaS40M1 no matter what and correctly so.

Hopefully we can iron out these minor wrinkles as we post the rules.

I think a good section to cover would be on shoe starts. For example clarifying what to do / when to switch to SAP after the first event is registered. I know for me, that is still a slightly ambiguous area.

[junketman]

I think a good section to cover would be on shoe starts. For example clarifying what to do / when to switch to SAP after the first event is registered. I know for me, that is still an slightly ambiguous area.

I totally agree

[Golfgirl007]

Is play 16 corect on the attached shoe?S40M1 MDB.pdf

[kshatria]

Is play 16 corect on the attached shoe?S40M1 MDB.pdf

It looks right to me - at least that is how I have been practicing

[Guest]

Is play 16 corect on the attached shoe?[ATTACH]3007[/ATTACH]

Already answered you back at post 108 and again at 120. It is correct because the last run was longer.

The next ST run, if any, you get off after the 4th circle. You're doing it right.

[kshatria]

As per the advice of many on the forum I've been taking time to play through lots of practice shoes. I've been drilling on multiple shoes with each system played individually (just so I can get a sense of how it behaves "in the wild"), and I have been playing with the rules posted here (always play highest count system). Through the experience of playing about 25 practice shoes with the full rules, it is clear that S40M1 has the lowest draw-down characteristics of all the systems. I never got below -7, and only twice went below -5. However in all shoes by playing on I was able to either net a small net positive or get back to 0. I've noticed empirically that the range the method traverses is about five units or so. So I have a couple questions and a suggestion for play method:

Question 1: Why start the shoe with BaS40 when BaS40M1 will limit your losses "in the blind" more effectively?

Question 2: Why not carry your counts forward to the next game? They should end up about even over a large number of plays, and biases that develop over the course of several shoes may be useful to know about.

Suggestion: Play for a net +5. That means if you hit -3, only play for +2. If you hit -7, only play for -2 (or 0 if you are feeling lucky).

Look forward to your thoughts!

[Guest]

I think a good section to cover would be on shoe starts. For example clarifying what to do / when to switch to SAP after the first event is registered. I know for me, that is still a slightly ambiguous area.

Ok, I'll cover this again on the rules thread. Basically you go by the higest count as soon as it becomes the highest count.

1's = BaS40

2s and or 3s = BaOTB4L

4+ = BaS40M1

There is nothing else that can be high so system selection and switches are purely mechanical.

The 3 systems themselves are each purely mechanical.

How to react to winning or losing 0s is purely mechanical.

If you hit +5 by play 15 you capture 4 and keep going. After play 15 you quit at +5. And your max stop loss is -5. That makes cash Mgt purely mechanical.

The only decision you make is where and what is for lunch.

We could send in Robby the robot to play. Then we could stay home.

[Guest]

As per the advice of many on the forum I've been taking time to play through lots of practice shoes. I've been drilling on multiple shoes with each system played individually (just so I can get a sense of how it behaves "in the wild"), and I have been playing with the rules posted here (always play highest count system). Through the experience of playing about 25 practice shoes with the full rules, it is clear that S40M1 has the lowest draw-down characteristics of all the systems. I never got below -7, and only twice went below -5. However in all shoes by playing on I was able to either net a small net positive or get back to 0. I've noticed empirically that the range the method traverses is about five units or so. So I have a couple questions and a suggestion for play method:

Question 1: Why start the shoe with BaS40 when BaS40M1 will limit your losses "in the blind" more effectively?

Question 2: Why not carry your counts forward to the next game? They should end up about even over a large number of plays, and biases that develop over the course of several shoes may be useful to know about.

3.) Suggestion: Play for a net +5. That means if you hit -3, only play for +2. If you hit -7, only play for -2 (or 0 if you are feeling lucky).

Look forward to your thoughts!

Yes, all good thoughts especially for preshuffled cards - all viable.

1.) Right, I brought this up before myself. The problem is that 2s are 4 times more common than 4+s.

USUALLY BaS40 covers the most shoes but not every day, not every table, not every casino. We would certainly prefer a table that has been favoring BaS40M1 because it bets less to make +5 AND it has its moments of greandeur in streaky shoes.

2.) You COULD carry your counts forward if for no other reason than to tell us what system to start with once we have played those particular cards. Right, The same cards usually contain the same biases.

3.) We all have easy days and tough days. On a tough day, playing to a net of +5 is a very good idea!

Just as, on an easy day, when our primary progs are lasting, +5 might be too conservative.

Just as, when our secondary prog is never getting past the 1 bet, we might consider a 0246. Mentioned that before too.

All this goes to show you - it pays to always be alert. We never get the same day or even the same shoe again.

[Quizzical1]

Ok, I'll cover this again on the rules thread. Basically you go by the higest count as soon as it becomes the highest count.

1's = BaS40

2s and or 3s = BaOTB4L

4+ = BaS40M1

There is nothing else that can be high so system selection and switches are purely mechanical.

The 3 systems themselves are each purely mechanical.

How to react to winning or losing 0s is purely mechanical.

If you hit +5 by play 15 you capture 4 and keep going. After play 15 you quit at +5. And your max stop loss is -5. That makes cash Mgt purely mechanical.

The only decision you make is where and what is for lunch.

We could send in Robby the robot to play. Then we could stay home.

Thanks Ellis,

Yes, that would be a great help ( a definitive Rules thread). Seems I'm still having trouble transitioning from the default BaS40 starting system to "X" system (whatever SAP determines it to be) without violating the -5 LL on a few shoes. The purely mechanical play should help remedy this.

Here's one example: B322112112 .....I hit -5 by the end.

[gman72]

Here's one example: B322112112 .....I hit -5 by the end.

As best as I can tell the rules just don't help you with this sequence, it's -5 all the way. Maybe if you were able to react to the trending up 1's you could have switched back to BaS40 for the last few plays, but that wouldn't be following the mechanical rules. I guess we'll just have to accept there are starting sequences this method just can't beat.

[Quizzical1]

As best as I can tell the rules just don't help you with this sequence, it's -5 all the way. Maybe if you were able to react to the trending up 1's you could have switched back to BaS40 for the last few plays, but that wouldn't be following the mechanical rules. I guess we'll just have to accept there are starting sequences this method just can't beat.

Unless the rules can be altered to handle these situations?? Any thoughts Ellis?

Here's another one:

P12141371

P2212114124

P221211111123

[gman72]

Here's another one:

P12141371

P2212114124

P221211111123

Here's this one played out: image2014_06_02_12_55_280001.pdf

Changed to S40M1 at play 10 and stayed with it through the rest of the shoe. Never hit -5, but got close, and it clawed back to a +5 at play 54 in the third column. I stayed S40M1 because the 4+'s SAP count stayed highest, even when the 2's tied the 4+'s at play 28. The 1's seemed to be trending up, so I stayed with S40M1.

I went back OTR at play 16, and since it won, I stayed OTR till a loss. This could have been played with only one more OTR bet to the 4iar at play 16 and then back to S40M1, since the last run was only a 4iar at plays 5-8, but right now I'm playing till a loss whenever I go back OTR after a secondary progression bet ATR losses. Ellis may shed some light if this is correct or not, but it's what I'm doing right now in my play.

I got off the run at play 41 since the last run before that was a 4iar at plays 30-33.

What do you think Glenn? Did you play the same?

[Quizzical1]

Here's this one played out: [ATTACH]3008[/ATTACH]

Changed to S40M1 at play 10 and stayed with it through the rest of the shoe. Never hit -5, but got close, and it clawed back to a +5 at play 54 in the third column. I stayed S40M1 because the 4+'s SAP count stayed highest, even when the 2's tied the 4+'s at play 28. The 1's seemed to be trending up, so I stayed with S40M1.

I went back OTR at play 16, and since it won, I stayed OTR till a loss. This could have been played with only one more OTR bet to the 4iar at play 16 and then back to S40M1, since the last run was only a 4iar at plays 5-8, but right now I'm playing till a loss whenever I go back OTR after a secondary progression bet ATR losses. Ellis may shed some light if this is correct or not, but it's what I'm doing right now in my play.

I got off the run at play 41 since the last run before that was a 4iar at plays 30-33.

What do you think Glenn? Did you play the same?

No, I played it purely mechanically and switched to OTB4L at hand 25 at the 4 6 4 8 count.

I'm still not sure when to switch systems since it seems you did better by not switching when SAP was indicating to.

[gman72]

No, I played it purely mechanically and switched to OTB4L at hand 25 at the 4 6 4 8 count.

I'm still not sure when to switch systems since it seems you did better by not switching when SAP was indicating to.

I see what you are saying, you are following the rules from Ellis' post #77 in this thread. It does show when the two highest SAP counts are 2's and 4+'s that equals a weak BaOTB4L shoe. Purely mechanical, again, you lose this shoe if you switch to BaOTB4L at play 25.

What I was seeing with the SAP count is that 4+'s were in the lead through the first column so still BaS40M1, then the 2's started trending up, but then so did the 1's. Since the 4+ was still high and then 2's and 1's trending up I just decided to stick with BaS40M1. Maybe I was just lucky. That could backfire on another shoe. It's just my thought process.

High 1's and 2's count is easy, as well as 2's and 3's. I have the most trouble with shoe's that are high 2's and 4+s or 3's and 4+s.

[newbacplayer]

Agreed. High 2s and 4s, but especially high 3s and 4s are the most problematic. gb

[Fedda]

No, I played it purely mechanically and switched to OTB4L at hand 25 at the 4 6 4 8 count.

I'm still not sure when to switch systems since it seems you did better by not switching when SAP was indicating to.

Good play Gman!

I like the way you're posting the shoes, clean and easy.

This is a tough one, must say it's tempting to go OTB4L at play 49 with two's coming fast, but then it's goodbye..

Glenn, I was thinking OTB4L too but I think Ellis said that we go with the highest count which in this case at hand 25 is 4+'s, 4 6 4 (8). That's still S40M1 if I have got it right.

In this particular shoe it works out but I know what you mean, the 2's and 3's have the highest number together.

Anyway, good job!

[Quizzical1]

Good play Gman!

I like the way you're posting the shoes, clean and easy.

This is a tough one, must say it's tempting to go OTB4L at play 49 with two's coming fast, but then it's goodbye..

Glenn, I was thinking OTB4L too but I think Ellis said that we go with the highest count which in this case at hand 25 is 4+'s, 4 6 4 (8). That's still S40M1 if I have got it right.

In this particular shoe it works out but I know what you mean, the 2's and 3's have the highest number together.

Anyway, good job!

I guess I'm still hoping the 100% purely mechanical play can be attained.