Don't Fall in Love

[ECD]

If you have a losing flat bet session do you raise you flat bet for the next session? I understand what you are saying, but you lose in a negative progression what you would lose in a bad session of flat betting. There have been multiple times where I played my own negative progression which would be considered extremely aggressive and was up between 30-40 units and then took the shoe home and flat be and wound up down. I am curious, do you quit at +5 or are your bets that high you would stay at 1or 2?.

There are two ways of looking at it and pretty much it depends on your personality...If you are a risk taker by nature, then definitely go with a negative progression, but be aware that unless you are blessed with the remarkable ability to switch off and ignore the size of your units, then there will come a time when you can no longer increase the size of your units (due to prospective heart failure) or you change the way you bet. TBH...I shit myself when I made my first $1K bet which was a 2 unit bet.

If like me...you are still waiting for your balls to drop...then either flat betting or some sort of 2Hi wagering system is the best option.

Norm set me on this alternative path when he suggested that I should start the way I intended to continue.

Each person has to decide for themselves.

Both staking methods have their advantages and disadvantages.

A Negative Progression can be a quick and exciting way to increase your Bank while requiring a higher Bank to operate with safety.

Flatbetting or 2Hi is about as exciting as watching paint dry and my biggest prob is staying awake. (Sadly, I admit to nodding off once and woke with my head on my keyboard and my computer screen saying that as I had not placed a bet for 10 hands, that I had been logged off) I didn't ever check to see what my indiscretion may have cost me...Sometimes it's better just not to know.

It's a bit of a contradiction in a way, because I make damn sure that all my faculties are up to speed when I start playing...but unfortunately "old person" disease means that my attention span is not what it once was...LOL

But, I digress...

The advantages of Flatbetting or 2Hi are that you can risk playing with higher units as a bad run of outs is not going to smash you out of the ballpark...and given that you are risking less, you will be surprised at how quickly your unit size grows. (kinda like compound interest...sorta)

If you can average even one unit a shoe, then eventually you are going to be doing the same as me...crapping your pants when you make your first $1K

bet

Think about it...Baccarat is an even money game. Casinos make their money because the majority of people chase their losses.

You have a 50% chance of winning (near as matters) with flat betting and given all the teaching available on BTC...if you can't turn that into a 1+ unit/shoe advantage...you should find something else to do nights

[Guest]

Well, I too am highly interested in this subject for my own reasons.

Here is the math surrounding flat betting:

The ONLY way you can win flat betting is to win more than half your bets - to beat the 50/50 table odds.

BUT if you win more than half your bets, you would have won more with a prog.

So, you would think that leaves no place for flat betting.

But, flat betting and 2Hi betting has one huge advantage:

It makes it much easier and quicker to raise your unit size just like Oz did with 2Hi and just like Norm did.

SO, when we are thinking in terms of a million dollar system, flat betting and 2Hi betting becomes the most rational.

BUT, the way Oz plays beats the casinos he is playing but not necessarily other casinos.

The way Norm played only beat MGM. Norm quickly found that the way he played was NOT good in the Florida and Gulf Coast casinos.

It was only good at MGM!

Also there were subjective elements to Norm's style which can't be taught.

Just as there are subjective elements to Oz's style.

We need a purely mechanical system that is also universal - that wins no matter where you play.

After a lot of trial and error and after a lot of pure thought,

I have decided to change the base for our 2Hi and our 1Hi systems

And also to combine them into ONE system.

That way you can personally decide whether you want to bet 1 Hi or 2Hi.

I have decided to go back to something already tried, tested and proven.

SAP !

Played 2Hi, SAP was averaging a solid 6 units a shoe.

Even our competitors said it was the best system ever designed.

And it was the most stolen and copied system I ever designed.

That Asian company sells Reverse SAP at $7000 per copy.

They didn't even bother to change my wording or terminology.

They copied the exact same weighting multipliers from me.

Ha, at least those guys know a good system when they see it.

It is an exact copy of SAP until you get to the last paragraph.

They say to bet the the SAP count will equalize.

While I said to bet the high count will go higher and the low count will go lower.

And guess what: We are BOTH right!

See, in Asia, all Baccarat is preshuffled and preshuffled tends to randomize

so he was right IF and When you are playing preshuffled cards.

But back then we had no preshuffled cards in the US.

All US games were regular cards.

So I was right for US play but he was right for Asian preshuffled.

Now preshuffled has been introduced in the US and is gaining popularity.

So, top players - million dollar players, need to know how to play SAP BOTH ways.

SAP and Reverse SAP.

See, we made a hugh mistake back then. We dropped SAP when our shoe average dropped from 11 units per shoe to 6.

I didn't know vit then but I do now - that was because some casinos were introducing preshuffled cards and back then we didn't know to switch to Reverse SAP when playing against factory preshuffled to take advantage of forced random. But we know that NOW!

We sorta lost interest.

But now we are desparately looking for a 6 unit system because we are thinking in terms of a million dollars.

Some of our top players said: "Why don't you just go back to SAP? It was already averaging 6 units played 2Hi. That is how Norm was playing and he got to 2 million."

And we made one other important mistake - we dropped off our 4 count in an attempt to simplify.

That might be part of the reason our shoe average went from 11 down to 6???

But the other reason was we didn't differentiate between regular and preshuffled casinos.

We only played SAP ONE way.

We talked about Reverse SAP a little but that is all we did - talk.

But today, a player needs to know BOTH ways: SAP and Reverse SAP.

Our Asian and Vegas players need to know Reverse SAP fluently.

Our US and internet players need to know SAP fluently.

Our best players will become fluent in BOTH.

Now I warn you SAP scares players!

That's because it is unlike anything you've ever done before.

Yes it's new to some BUT it is extremely simple once you understand the very simple concept.

And it wins!

I checked the first 300 shoes our players submitted. They were from all over.

They averaged a very solid +6 and that was only playing SAP.

There were some shoes from some casinos the player SHOULD have been playing Reverse SAP.

But we hadn't invented the Reverse SAP concept yet. NOW, we have.

But back to the subject of flat betting:

I checked all the 2 bets in those 300 shoes.

Guess what? They broke even! We could have averaged +6 simply flat betting at 1!

But there is another side to that coin:

What would happen if we applied the MDB+ 124 progression?

Ha, I'm thinking your +6 average and your shoe win % will go up considerably - probably pretty darn close to MDB+ and MDB+ has the highest statistics in the history of gambling.

Especially if you know when and how to apply Reverse SAP. And that's simple as pie.

I have no idea why I'm stumbling around with net betting when SAP is tried and true and already averages a very solid +6.

I should have thought of this a long time ago. Getting old I guess.

But here's the thing! I thought of it NOW!

Yes, it was a ***** to teach the first time around.

But now, I've had practice. I know a much simpler way to teach it.

Hell, a baboon could play it without any errors.

And it is already proven to be a sure way to win: first by us and then by our competitors.

So, you guys on the 2Hi forum, THAT is what I'm going to teach you: SAP and Reverse SAP.

When your concept light bulb turns on, SAP is about the easiest system you've ever seen - purely mechanical,

and as you will quickly see, the concept makes perfect sense.

10 well taught players would play the same shoe the same way.

You can bet it any way you prefer, flat bet, 2Hi, 4Hi, whatever. I leave that up to you.

Edited April 18, 2015 by Ellis

[Guest]

Hey McVince, you've got it backwards. You don't raise your unit after a losing session. That's suicidal..

Your job after a losing session is to determine why you lost. Once you know, try again.

Best time to raise your unit is after a WINNING session. That's when you can afford it!

[Druck]

From -

douglasb53

When using a 3456 D2 progression like in this posted shoe, what happens if you loose the 6 bet? Thanks

Ellis thanks for explaining in detail what you mean by “first bets.†I am still figuring out the lingo.

Not sure how much you want to divulge here, but what do you do when you loose the 6 bet? Sit out and wait for a better time to play a hand? Do you take your lumps and you go back to a 3 bet?

Going against a streak or jumping in late is one of the hard things for me to do. I am new to bac, but I have been successful with playing trends and streaks. It seems that this is NOT a good way to play LONG TERM. I play small potatoes now and usually buy in at $150-$200 on a $10 to $15 table. Playing the streaks I have partially parlayed the previous wins. Say 15, 20, 30, 40, 70, 100, 150. Last week I played for about 15 mins, hit a 9 hand ZZ at the end of the shoe. Lost last hand for $250. Only played about 5 of the first 10 hands on the next shoe and then took their $500 and ran. It was a great 28 minutes on the table.

I understand your stressing of of table selection, but for those of us “out in the sticks†this can be hard. The above story was over a 4 hour drive (I was in town for others things), they only had one table going. I spent less than a hour at the casino, but I knew I didn’t want to give them a chance to get their money back. The other places I can play are an hour away, usually only one table and not starting until the evening.

Thank You

Druck

[ECD]

You 1unit bet now is 5k right How did you feel when you lost you first 2unit bet on 5k bet

LOL...Not good... I admit to being more than a little hesitant and waited until my bank was way higher than my 10% maximum risk dictated, and even then, I flat bet for a bit before finally taking the plunge. BTW: My first 10K bet was a loser which sent me back into my shell for a while. I knew that statistically, I was better off making the 2 unit bet, but the prob is that statistics and paper plays don't mean jack shit when it comes down to real money. I still find Baccarat bat shit boring and mostly just expect to win, but still experience days of doubt where I either don't play or flat bet only. It doesn't take too many 2 unit losses first up to turn me into "Mr Cranky Pants"...Human nature I guess and I for one am not a gambler by nature.

Some day, I'll detail the amount of study and the research I did with all of Ellis's various methods and my own research of the casinos before I really "believed". I still sign on for most of BTC's "pay for" systems, not because I plan on changing the way I play, but in case I pick up one little bit of knowledge that might give me even one extra unit a day. As my tight arse Grandad used to say..."It all adds up"

[Guest]

From -

douglasb53

When using a 3456 D2 progression like in this posted shoe, what happens if you loose the 6 bet? Thanks

Ellis thanks for explaining in detail what you mean by “first bets.” I am still figuring out the lingo.

Not sure how much you want to divulge here, but what do you do when you loose the 6 bet? Sit out and wait for a better time to play a hand? Do you take your lumps and you go back to a 3 bet?

Going against a streak or jumping in late is one of the hard things for me to do. I am new to bac, but I have been successful with playing trends and streaks. It seems that this is NOT a good way to play LONG TERM. I play small potatoes now and usually buy in at $150-$200 on a $10 to $15 table. Playing the streaks I have partially parlayed the previous wins. Say 15, 20, 30, 40, 70, 100, 150. Last week I played for about 15 mins, hit a 9 hand ZZ at the end of the shoe. Lost last hand for $250. Only played about 5 of the first 10 hands on the next shoe and then took their $500 and ran. It was a great 28 minutes on the table.

I understand your stressing of of table selection, but for those of us “out in the sticks” this can be hard. The above story was over a 4 hour drive (I was in town for others things), they only had one table going. I spent less than a hour at the casino, but I knew I didn’t want to give them a chance to get their money back. The other places I can play are an hour away, usually only one table and not starting until the evening.

Thank You

Druck

Every casino has a vulnerability - So if you are out in the sticks Like Oz, below, you need to learn your casino's vulnerability - just like Oz did.

Ha, you can't get a lot more out in the sticks than Australia.

Well usually we only play the 345 to 5 and when we lose the 5 we start over at 3.

So, OK you lose a 345 but you are only 4 units down if your prior score was 0. That's a lot easier to make up compared to losing a 123 putting you 6 units down.

But in a really good shoe like this one we advance to U1D2 with a base bet of 3.

Oh yeah, "U1D2" means you bet up 1 when you lose and down 2 when you win except you don't go below your base bet.

Another big advantage of the 345 is it allows you to legally play the common $15 tables for nickel chips!

I'll bet you didn't think of that.

You'll be the lowest bettor at the table for sure.

Right, on the public forum I'm only going to divulge enough to ha, get you in trouble.

So ok, maybe you can figure out how OTB4L is played from my shoe. But you can't beat a casino with one system.

It's like trying to box with one hand. You'll get killed. You need more arrows in your quiver.

I posted the shoe to show you new guys that Baccarat CAN be beat but only by those who have been taught how.

I'm going to start teaching NOR all over again from scratch.

So this would be a good time to join the forum.

Later you can learn MDB+ and play Vegas. In Vegas and Macau, MDB+ has the highest performance of any system ever in the history of gambling.

It is only a 3 bet progression but your progression has better than a 95% win rate.

But to play anywhere else in the US, you need to know all of NOR. It is, by far, the best way to play regular cards or on the internet.

And, since I'm about to start a new NOR class.....

I'll tell you one thing for sure: You can't teach yourself! You'll lose your shirt.

99% of players lose at Baccarat at impossible rates.

But I can teach you exactly how to be among the 1% that consistently wins.

If you are a dedicated student, you can make a lot of money - and we teach you how to play on winnings, not on your own hard earned money. That's just one of many tricks of the trade we'll teach you.

ozscouser1 is up a couple million, So is Norm. But I can remember when they couldn't even spell Baccarat.

We teach you how to be a player rather than a gambler. There's a BIG difference!

Gamblers are stupid. They'd rather lose than learn. Casinos count on that.

Edited April 19, 2015 by Ellis

[Druck]

Mr Davis -

345 progression with $5 chips.........I like it!!!!

Easy math and the learning mistakes won't kill the bankroll.

This will make getting to the casino more often doable.

I will get a membership by mid-May.

Stupid is not good, looking forward to learning and winning for the long run.

Thank you for your time,

Druck

[trbfla]

I can't do Twitter or Instagram so that in fact makes you the GEEK around here...

Hint...second word rhymes with "luck"

Yeah, but I just love social media these days....so yeah I'm a bit of a geek....

[trbfla]

In my case at the Unit size I'm playing...Call the Paramedics.

I'm thinking that this sort of progression is designed for lower unit sizes.

There is not a "snowflakes chance in hell" of me ever making a bet of more than 2 units. Norm "RIP" would come back to haunt me

If you have a solid bet placement no need to go above a 2 bet.....just inviting trouble I believe....norm's loop is quite possibly all you need....if the shoe isn't a good one why throw 6 at it ...right oz?

[trbfla]

Amen brother! A 6 unit bet?!! Forget the paramedics, just send me to the nut house!

Way, is that the macadamia nut house?

[trbfla]

but for you guys I can understand your point but for guys at lower unit levels the debate continues: If you can do well with flat betting / minor progression then can you not always do even better with a sensible progression going slightly higher?

But in reality I find the higher you raise your bets the less you tend to rely on superior bet selection / table selection which is always the best.

I guess its a discipline thing

Obviously you can only play this way until your BR compounds to hit table limits and becomes scary as you say but the dilemma is could you not get to that point faster using a higher progression than 2 units?

Then is it not better to play one way from the start and to never have to adjust it as your bet size goes up even if it takes you longer to get there?

I'm torn between the 2 ways but because of the success of Norm and Oz that I've read about I'm leaning towards keeping it flat / 2 max.

I just don't know but will figure it out

Brad, the way I believe Norm looked at, as he personally told me once, is that if you need more than a 2 bet, perhaps your method is not the best one. If the shoe isn't cooperating, just find another shoe...casinos are open 24/7.

I believe there is something to be said for playing conservatively. You keep your losses low and stay in more shoes.

[trbfla]

Druck, Drummond , Siki

It's great that you guys are reading up and learning on the public forum. Just a bit of caution for you. You can't not expect to apply what you learn on the public forum and win consistently. Trust me I tried that. I lost and lost and lost. The amount of my losses would have paid for like 10 memberships to BTC. I was stubborn.

I finally joined and won back my fees on my first night of 3 shoes....and you can too. As a matter of fact, I bet if we took a poll 75 percent of the members would say they paid their membership fee within the first week......

See, while you learn on the public forum, a shoe may start to do something you haven't learned.....and now you aren't prepared and it costs you....I know cause that's what happened to me. So while you may think you are getting the hang of it from the YouTube videos or the public forum or the posts, or the girls with Keith video, ok maybe not that video, but anyway...there is so much more to it....

Not to lecture you guys, just to say I've been on the fence where you guys are....sometimes you just gotta take the leap and know you will be better off for it.

The guy who invented the squirrel flight suit never knew if it would work till he took that first jump off the side of the mountain. Sure he may have killed himself but that's not the point, the point is if a squirrel can fly, so can you. No wait that's not the point.

The point is if you want to gamble, why not take it seriously. And if you take it seriously, why not educate yourself? Why not arm yourself with an arsenal of knowledge that allows you to have the ability to leave while you are ahead. Why not prepare yourself as a professional?

So I humbly invite you to join us on the inside, trust me it's worth it.

[Druck]

trbfla -

Keith's girls and squirrels............there has to be some good punchline in that. Ha ha ha

Looking forward to seeing things on the inside, I know that I'm not smart enough to only use the freebies here.

I just played a few shoes online for fun. First one was a "gimme" for OTB4L - got up 88 units with 345 progression.

The next 4 totaled losses more than 88. Lots to learn.

[Druck]

Well, I finally joined NOR.

Lots of info to digest. But when I looked at a couple of my recent shoes where I lost 10 and 8 units each, I see now that I would have WON 8 units on each if I just stuck with what NOR teaches.

Now I need to practice more and get the discipline needed to play by the NOR rules to win regularly. This will make it easier to increase unit size.

Don't need to win 50 units per shoe. 8 Units at $25 - $50 - $100 makes the effort to get to the casino well worth it!!!!