SAP/Reverse SAP - Ellis

[beretta28]

I must confess that Ellis is the number 1.

More I read his posts,more my admiration for him goes up.

Lucky his students.

He knows some specific points in BJ and Baccarat that even expert players don't know.

The fact that up as you win progressions are a suicide(mathematically demonstrated),the fact that you can'y buy the game,the importance of shuffling.

Baccarat is a very mathematical game,but math can't beat it.

Only statistic and ,I'd say, geometry can win and both are in Ellis systems.

He has never dealt with 2 issues(at least in the posts I read):

-Variance,big deviation from statistical expectation,that sooner or later a player must face

-The fact that Bank bet wins 50,68% of the time and loses 49,32% of the time(vice versa for player).

The unavoidable variance and the asymmetry between B and P:why don't you take them into account in your approach or I'm mistake?

[cookie0410]

Ellis when should the 2hi members expect to recieve these lessons? I have a trip to Vegas next week would love to implement SAP/RSAP when I go.

[brad01]

Variance from statistical expectation - you mean bias?

So from what I learned here: 1's occur 1 in 4, 2's occur 1 in 8 etc etc

That is the statistical expectation?

Then anything that deviates from that is a bias?

Big deviation = strong bias

NOR thrives on strong bias

MDB thrives on no bias

So both are covered

SAP helps you to see which of the above is occurring.

As for banker edge 50. something % once again that is such a small % and will never make a difference per shoe

In the long run, ,maybe, eventually but who's gonna wait such a long time to try and take advantage of a less than 1% theoretical edge

There are banker favourable and player favourable shoes all the time.

The teachings here allow you to gain a much better edge than a 0.5% theoretical edge that occurs over hundreds or thousands of shoes.

Just my opinion from what I learned here in a few months

Lets wait for Ellis to give us his take.

[LOU30]

I must confess that Ellis is the number 1.

More I read his posts,more my admiration for him goes up.

Lucky his students.

He knows some specific points in BJ and Baccarat that even expert players don't know.

The fact that up as you win progressions are a suicide(mathematically demonstrated),the fact that you can'y buy the game,the importance of shuffling.

Baccarat is a very mathematical game,but math can't beat it.

Only statistic and ,I'd say, geometry can win and both are in Ellis systems.

He has never dealt with 2 issues(at least in the posts I read):

-Variance,big deviation from statistical expectation,that sooner or later a player must face

-The fact that Bank bet wins 50,68% of the time and loses 49,32% of the time(vice versa for player).

The unavoidable variance and the asymmetry between B and P:why don't you take them into account in your approach or I'm mistake?

All good points but they are governed by LONG term statistics for a short term game '' An individual shoe'' variance can be controlled by a well disciplined STOP win/loss margin ...Therefore effecting the long term EV of results because we will not be playing every hand of every shoe.

So win or lose we should be sitting out for most of ''The unavoidable variance and the asymmetry between B and P''.

Regards Lou.

[Guest]

Ellis when should the 2hi members expect to recieve these lessons? I have a trip to Vegas next week would love to implement SAP/RSAP when I go.

cookie! You are an MDB player. Play MDB+. Don't be experimenting.

You are there for one reason and one reason only - to win money.

FOCUS on that! MDB+ has a proven 70% bet hit rate and a 95% 3 bet progression win rate

against the Vegas preshuffled game right now as we speak.

That is by far the highest performance ever in the history of gambling.

way2fast has the most experience and likes to help players.

You should be talking to him, not me.

In fact, EVERYONE here on the public forum should be taking advantage of this situation.

But most here have no conception of what a 70% bet hit rate even means.

They've never heard of such a thing.

But YOU have. So go for it!

[Guest]

I must confess that Ellis is the number 1.

More I read his posts,more my admiration for him goes up.

Lucky his students.

He knows some specific points in BJ and Baccarat that even expert players don't know.

The fact that up as you win progressions are a suicide(mathematically demonstrated),the fact that you can'y buy the game,the importance of shuffling.

Baccarat is a very mathematical game,but math can't beat it.

Only statistic and ,I'd say, geometry can win and both are in Ellis systems.

He has never dealt with 2 issues(at least in the posts I read):

-Variance,big deviation from statistical expectation,that sooner or later a player must face

-The fact that Bank bet wins 50,68% of the time and loses 49,32% of the time(vice versa for player).

The unavoidable variance and the asymmetry between B and P:why don't you take them into account in your approach or I'm mistake?

Well let's take the Bank advantage first:

Correct, over thousands of shoes, Bank has a slight advantage.

But we don't play the game over thousands of shoes.

We play the game in the glimpses of time of single shoes. ANYTHING can happen!

Player could win the next seven shoes you play. THAT is what's important!

What's important is what IS happening - not what is SUPPOSED to happen.

[Guest]

We DO account for variances. That's how we get our hit rate above 50%.

We devide the game into Two types:

"Regular cards" that started out in 8 sealed decks.

"Factory preshuffled cards": These are cards arranged in card orders the casino deems favorable to the casino.

With regular cards the variances tend to grow larger as the shoe wears on. We know this for a fact

because we plotted all the variances of thousands of shoes on see through acetate.

We plotted: Bank vs Player; Opposites vs Repeats; OTB4L vs TB4L; double 0 vs double T; 1's, 2s 3s and 4+

Those plots tend to look like Christmas trees with all the color coded variances branching out further and further.

Now try the same experiment with Factory preshuffled: You get virtually the exact opposite.

All the variances tend to go back to and cross 0.

That gives us a strong and verified basis for designing systems that actually work.

Then we developed the SAP count; the OR count and the OT count.

The SAP count is weighted to the normal frequency of occurrence

It tells us which events are running above normal and how much

as well as which events are running below normal and by how much

It is telling us in real time the precise tendencies of the shoe at hand play by play.

All you really need to know from there is which kind of cards you are playing.

It gives you a strong basis for every bet you make and it tells you the strength

and the lack of strength of each bet.

THAT is how we achieved a 70% hit rate with MDB+ with preshuffled.

THAT is why NOR has such a consistenly high hit rate with regular cards.

See, you have been taught that every bet is 50/50

On that basis you have no chance at all.

Sure, some bets are 50/50 but not all.

We've demonstrated that some are 70/30

To beat this game you need to know which is which.

I've been at this for 35 years and I applied a 160 IQ to the problem as well as an analitical background.

We are light years ahead of all other Baccarat instruction - by far the best on this planet.

beretta, you are a sharp guy. You are beginning to see the same things our members here see.

But unfortunately, most general public don't have the foggiest notion of what I'm talking about.

I might as well be talking to the wind.

Edited April 28, 2015 by Ellis

[MasterP]

We DO account for variances. That's how we get our hit rate above 50%.

We devide the game into Two types:

"Regular cards" that started out in 8 sealed decks.

"Factory preshuffled cards": These are cards arranged in card orders the casino deems favorable to the casino.

With regular cards the variances tend to grow larger as the shoe wears on. We know this for a fact

because we plotted all the variances of thousands of shoes on see through acetate.

We plotted: Bank vs Player; Opposites vs Repeats; OTB4L vs TB4L; double 0 vs double T; 1's, 2s 3s and 4+

Those plots tend to look like Christmas trees with all the color coded variances branching out further and further.

Now try the same experiment with Factory preshuffled: You get virtually the exact opposite.

All the variances tend to go back to and cross 0.

That gives us a strong and verified basis for designing systems that actually work.

Then we developed the SAP count; the OR count and the OT count.

The SAP count is weighted to the normal frequency of occurrence

It tells us which events are running above normal and how much

as well as which events are running below normal and by how much

It is telling us in real time the precise tendencies of the shoe at hand play by play.

All you really need to know from there is which kind of cards you are playing.

It gives you a strong basis for every bet you make and it tells you the strength

and the lack of strength of each bet.

THAT is how we achieved a 70% hit rate with MDB+ with preshuffled.

THAT is why NOR has such a consistenly high hit rate with regular cards.

See, you have been taught that every bet is 50/50

On that basis you have no chance at all.

Sure, some bets are 50/50 but not all.

We've demonstrated that some are 70/30

To beat this game you need to know which is which.

I've been at this for 35 years and I applied a 160 IQ to the problem as well as an analitical background.

We are light years ahead of all other Baccarat instruction - by far the best on this planet.

beretta, you are a sharp guy. You are beginning to see the same things our members here see.

But unfortunately, most general public don't have the foggiest notion of what I'm talking about.

I might as well be talking to the wind.

Hi Ellis,

Just a question about the SAP count. Is there a big difference in separating the 4's and 5+'s? I see that the weighting of the 4's had changed from a 4 multiplier to an 8 multiplier along with a 5+'s count being added.

I've been wanting to understand the SAP count more.

Anyway insight would be nice. Thanks.

[weddings]

I read many versions of the SAP weighting from all over the forums

1. 1s - 1, 2s - 2, 3s - 4, 4s - 4

2. 1s - 1, 2s - 2, 3s - 3, 4s - 4

3. As described by MasterP

I hope Ellis or anyone knowledgeable about this can come forward and clarify which version is the final one?

[brad01]

Read 2Hi forum and MDB forum - Ellis just posted the answers there