Following runs

[XDN]

I've seen a player do this in a previous town I lived in. The runs at the casino where we played *mostly* ended at 6 or 7 IAR and most nights he seemed to do pretty well. He had a progression, i'm not sure what it was but it included a lot of black and purple chips!

BUT I saw him eat it more than one time waiting for a run to end. I was at a table one night playing a shoe that had multiple long runs, he bet a progression against at least 3 runs to end and lost his progression. It looked to be $5000 in losses or so. However, I didn't talk to him much, he may have had a bankroll where 5k didn't matter. He was a sharp dude who always played under control so I suspect a 5k loss was within his bankroll and plan but still....man you could have 1 bad session using this that wipes out 10 good sessions.

Saw a shoe maybe a week ago at 5 dimes that had 10+ 3's that never went to 4 not a single 4 in the shoe. That would eat up a BR pretty fast. I kicked myself for not playing 221 against that shoe. All those beautiful 3's haha :-) 

 

Edited August 13, 2016 by XDotNet

[brad01]

The problem with following runs is everyone looks at what they could of got off of 1 long run but they may not consider how many times they backed what they hoped would be a long run and it switched right then or they broke even got a small win

Of course I'm talking flat betting if it was a progression they would have probably dug themselves a deep hole

[Pando]

There are a lot of questions here and there is not one answer

Can I illustrate my view by example of a shoe today

B121131111111311131121421412317111111111112114 (+24) $600

Points to note:

The first 4 is what I call a weak trigger, as it is preceded by multiple 3's, and it was well into the shoe

Because the 4 was only 4 and not longer, that makes it even weaker. If it had been 7 or 8 I would have been happier.

But then we did have another 4, a 7, then another 4 at the end. I had cashed out by the time the last 4 came.

That's about as weak a shoe as I would play this, but still it came trough OK, as the 3's dried up once the first 4 arrived

(As Wolfat said we have to adapt our game to the shoe as it unfolds)

The upside of the shoe was that the 1's were very high (33), and the 2's were low (5)

Í ignore the 2's, I don't play them at all.

If the 2 stays 2, and we start to see 1's then I play opposites (as in S40M1) which worked out nicely

If 2 goes to 3, I consider whether its wise to bet 3 goes to 4, to just sit out the hand (Oz/Norm would attest to this)

That all depends on how strong the trigger is - today it was weak

I finished the shoe +24 units, flat betting 2 units with an occasional 3 when I was ahead (positive progression)

Win 23 bets, lost 10 bets, which is 70% success rate, right on my running average

I am happy with that

My other shoe was

B225241121112311121111142114331132 (+8)

2's were high early (warning, warning) but I picked up a few units here and there

Not a bad day, +32 units (+$800) in 2 shoes

[avion]

Congrats Pando, way to go my friend.  

I just have to say, Pando has been doing this consistently for what....the last 2-3 months if not more Pando?

[XDN]

Great post Pando! I got stung by this very thing last night. I had never thought of the concept of a "weak" trigger. But I got a shoe that had a couple of 3's and 1 4 in the first 1/3 of the shoe. The first 4 was just a 4...after that the shoe was very weak on repeats, started getting sporadic 1's, 2's and 3's that never went to 4. Thank you for sharing your illustration of a weak trigger is VERY enlightening!!

[Pando]

Thanks Avion and XDotNet

Its nothing that is in any manual, rather a collection of my playing experience and observation

I haven't really been playing that long so I am always keeping an eye out for an edge

cheers Pando

[Pando]

I think we can summarise the 3 goes to 4 trigger as follows;

1) How early in the shoe do we see a 4+IAR - the earlier the better

2) How long is the first 4+IAR - the longer the better

3) How many 3's do we see in the shoe before we see a 4+IAR - the fewer 3's the better

I will see if I can pull some stats from my shoes to get exact numbers on those criteria

[zeckam]

Hi

This is a very great tip on shared on 3 going to 4 trigger. Can someone share his insights on 1 staying 1 and not going to 2?

Thanks