Are casinos really creating the biases...

[ECD]

I ran this shoe by my mentor and he finished with +25 playing the shoe a little differently to me which just goes to show that there is more than one way to skin a cat. 

Wax on ...wax off...Learn from this "Grasshoppers"...LOL

[XDN]

Thank you very much for sharing this!!! I'll work on digesting it as well. Thanks again !

[Sarrom]

Thank you very much for the play by play Oz - it was very enlightening, and extremely beneficial for all to let us into your thinking process.

I know that you've committed to not letting the identity of your Mentor be known, but if I could ask one simple question:

Was he a previous student of Ellis' teachings?

Thanks again!

Sarrom

[ECD]

4 minutes ago, Sarrom said:

Thank you very much for the play by play Oz - it was very enlightening, and extremely beneficial for all to let us into your thinking process.

I know that you've committed to not letting the identity of your Mentor be known, but if I could ask one simple question:

Was he a previous student of Ellis' teachings?

Thanks again!

Sarrom

 

YEAH...He was once...but I'm thinking that the pupil is now the teacher. He has taken me to a new level.

Ellis gave me the basics...the weapons to beat Baccarat.

Norm fine tuned Ellis's teaching and made me a consistent winner without using Negative Progressions.

And my mentor took all the knowledge that I had accumulated...put it all together and blew me out of the water. He is that good.

[trillion]

19 hours ago, ozscouser1 said:

I ran this shoe by my mentor and he finished with +25 playing the shoe a little differently to me which just goes to show that there is more than one way to skin a cat. 

Wax on ...wax off...Learn from this "Grasshoppers"...LOL

Oz would it be possible for you to share how your mentor played this shoe on a hand by hand, compared to how you played this shoe????

If not I completely understand and thank you for everything that you are doing helping everyone on the forum. 

[ECD]

3 hours ago, trillion said:

Oz would it be possible for you to share how your mentor played this shoe on a hand by hand, compared to how you played this shoe????

If not I completely understand and thank you for everything that you are doing helping everyone on the forum. 

 

I checked with him and I'm afraid that he respectfully declined. He has been put through the mill in the past and really doesn't want to go there again. Sorry about that, but my suggestion is that you spend extensive time on each play I made in that shoe...make certain that you fully understand my reasoning and then look for signs that may say that a different option might have been preferable. There is always another way to play and you need to develop your own style that also suits your personality.

I'm thinking that you should sit down and devote several hours just to this one shoe...look for improvements...different plays with each and every hand...analyse it to the Nth degree.  Undoubtedly, I will have made mistakes...taken the wrong option and if you discover them, you are well on the way.

Good luck

Oz

 

.

[mjmtong]

On Wednesday, August 24, 2016 at 5:45 AM, ozscouser1 said:

OK...I understand your frustration...been there... done that. At first glance this is a really shit shoe, but things aren't always as they seem...so sit back...grab yourself some popcorn and I'll try and take you through my thought processes. I don't keep a scorecard as such with SAP and all the other stuff, but I do keep a record for future reference. 

Brad's Shoe

No bet until H17 The previous events (B4211322which becomes 3) if they had occurred mid shoe would have had me betting OT earlier but at the start of the shoe I ignore the length of the first event other than to note that it was a 4+. Flatbetting only

I make mental note of hands 5 to 11 for poss future RD evaluation.

H17 Bet 1P  WIN +1...The B323 is a strong OT starting bet given  that 2's and  3's are OTB4L and recent Repeat History and confirmed by the previous 3iar on B side

H18 Bet 1P WIN +2...OTB4L

H19 Bet 1B WIN+3...OTB4L and confirmed by no event higher than 2iar on P side history

H20 Bet 1B WIN+4 ...OTB4L

H21 WAIT...Normally an Automatic OTB4L switch to P but I note that all previous multiples on the B side have been 3 or more so I have one signal saying to bet OTP and an opposing signal saying bet B...When in conflict...NO BET

H22 Bet 1P WIN+5 continuing OT ...This is a gimme because it's a normal OT switch after 3iar and the two previous multiples were 3's as well which classes as a MC event

H23 Bet 1P LOSE+4

H24 WAIT I'm torn here between a not so strong first RD1 bet on P and a history of multiples on the B side...No bet

H25 Bet 1P WIN +5  All previous history is telling me to bet Repeats...RD1 or OT...A no brainer

H26 Bet 1B WIN+6 Despite Repeats being the order of the day, I note that there hasn't been any event multiple on the P side higher than 2 so I switch to B (in my book if I haven't witnessed a previous event, then I play under the assumption that it won't happen.)

H27 Bet 1B WIN+7 eight repeat events v four 1's...gotta continue Repeat betting

H28 Bet 1B WIN+8 Repeat bet especially with no multiple event on the B side of less than 3 

H29 Bet 1P WIN+9 Switch to P MC event ...Last three 3's stayed 3 on B side

H30 Bet 1P LOSE+8 Both Repeats and OT are saying to bet P

H31 Bet 1B WIN+9 Continue betting Repeats. 

H32 Bet 1B LOSE+8 Possible OT bet on P but overuled by strong Repeat history ...no 2's on B side and SS indications

H33 Bet1P LOSE+7 Repeat bet 

H34 Bet1B WIN+8 SS says to make this bet...last 2 P's were singles...Repeats says to make this bet...and 5 out of last 6 events on the B side were multiples...a gimme bet

H35 Bet 1B WIN+9 SS 

H36 Bet1B WIN+10 SS

H37 Bet 1B WIN+11SS B history is saying to switch but in the words of the great Norm Allen "SS shits all over any other Baccarat Bias"...OK ...He didn't exactly say that...but that's what he meant.

H38 Bet 1B WIN+12 SS again

H39 Bet 1B WIN+13 SS

H40 Bet 1B LOSE +12 SS 

H41 Bet 1B WIN +13 SS Also confirmed by possible S40 bet with history prior to the B run indicating that a switch of Bias is in the air (keep that thought in the back of my mind) I remind myself though that the longer the run...the less likely immediate prior history (to the run) is not as reliable    

H42 Bet 1B LOSE +12 SS...Now I'm getting wary...Opps appear to be entering the equation.

H43 Bet 2B WIN+14 Both SS and Opps are saying to make this bet and if I am ahead in the shoe I always make this a 2 unit bet. (only once per SS though)

H44 Bet 1B LOSE +13 I risk one more bet on a dwindling SS when my instinct is screaming out to switch to S40...I lose and stick another pin in my Norm Allen Voodoo doll.

H45 Bet 1B LOSE +12 SS and S40 say to make this bet

H46 WAIT...I would normally look at making the B bet here as a typical S40 play especially given that there have been no events so far higher that 2iar on the P side, but two things have me edgy...I have just lost my last two bets which is a signal to me to think twice about my next bet and that run of 7Bankers just a few hands prior is a real worry.

 H47 WAIT 3's are still a  MC event for the shoe which has me thinking about betting on B but three things stop me from making the bet...I never like to make my first bet after two successive losses on a MC event...also there have been no 3+'s on the P side so I really don't have an indication from P history and still those 7B's still have me thinking. (I know the odds say that there will be another reasonable run of 4+ before the end of the shoe.)

H48 WAIT This is a typical S40 bet on P that I would consider if I had already been betting S40 before the 3iar, but there is not a strong S40 Bias so I wait one more hand 

H49 WAIT...History P17111132...Your guess is as good as mine

H50 WAIT see above

H51 Bet 1P WIN +13 ...With a P322 I am tempted with OT but I like recent history to back me up with OT decisions and the prior zz events rule out OT. This is still a Repeat shoe so I would make the repeat bet.   

H52  Bet 1P WIN +14 I was still torn two ways here because of the only 3iar on the P side but that previous 7iar sways me towards a run continuing to 4+ before shoe end 

H53 Bet 1P WIN +15 Repeat bet

H54 Bet 1P LOSE +14 Repeat bet

H55 Bet B1 LOSE +13 Repeat bet

H56 Bet P1 WIN +14 Even though I lost the previous 2 bets, I have my SS indication back and after all...this is a repeat shoe.

H57 Bet 1P WIN +15 SS

H58 Bet 1P LOSE +14 SS 

H59 Bet 1P WIN +15 SS

H60 Bet 1P WIN +16 SS

H61 Bet 1P LOSE +15 SS

H62 Bet 1P LOSE +14 SS

H63 Bet 1B WIN +15 Repeat This is still a "Repeat" shoe and I would risk one more bet at this stage. If it lost...I'd take the money and run

H64 Bet 1B WIN +16 Repeat bet

H65 Bet 1B LOSE +15 Repeat bet Lose the next bet at this stage and it's time to get the hell out of Dodge.

H66 Bet 1P WIN +16 Repeat bet 

H67 Bet 1P WIN +17 Repeat bet

OK +17 (give or take) flatbetting is not so bad in a shoe with no obvious S40 or OTB4L Bias.

I can't guarantee that this is exactly how I would have played this shoe, but it is more than likely the way I should have played. 

I've probably made a few mistakes, but no matter...I just wanted you to understand my thought processes and maybe  they might point you in the right direction.

Remembering that I am still an apprentice at this game myself. (I suspect that my current Mentor would have eaten this shoe for breakfast)

And please...no questions...I'm old and thinking makes my head hurt.

Just as a matter of interest...

Flat Betting = +17 units ...PA = 139%

Conservative 1 2 Loop = +26 units ...PA = 141%

U1D2 Neg Prog = +26 units ...PA = 142%

But if you wanna make some really big money?...the 6 7 8 progression wins you +116 units...NOT BLOODY BAD eh?...Oh WAIT...I forgot that you have to divide by your lowest unit amount...Hmm...116 divided by 6 = +19 (REAL) units with a PA of 141%...BUGGER...You can't help bad luck...eh?

Always remembering that this shoe played as I played it was perfect for any form of negative progression because the longest losing sequence was 2. Given that there is sweet stuff all difference in the PA of NP's ...Flatbetting and the 1 2 LOOP when this shoe soesn't get close to the limits of a NP...Tell me again why NP's are th go.

If anyone is at all interested in the musings of an old man, perhaps one of the more tech savvy on BTC (are you hearing me Brad?) could transpose this shoe into a more readable format.

OK...I'm outta here...gotta take a handful of headache pills.

Hi Oz.

Thank you for your wonderfully detailed explaination.

There is "truck loads",..Ozzie slang to mean.."tons",..further broken down to mean.."a very lot" of information to study here.

I am sure that I can say on behalf of everyone following this thread that we cannot thank you enough for this absolutely fantastic material.

To help present the shoe result out comes in "one place", I am placing what I feel will help people do this below. Cheers!

  

[ECD]

Good man ...See how easy it is to spot that run of Player 2's and Banker 3's on the Tote Board. It may not be the way most play, but when you see such an obvious signal, it's best not to ignore it.

[ECD]

Just another thing worth watching out for...My mentor again really rammed it home to me the strength of SS which I sometimes forget and I couldn't help myself and poured through heaps of my old shoes (old people with stuffed sleep patterns can do that shit) 

The upshot is that me not recognising SS patterns and taking the advice of Norm... "SS is a hundred times more reliable than OTB4L" has cost me the equivalent of a new house. How's that for a kick up the butt? 

Others may disagree, but I rate the reliability of the various "Biases"  in this order...1) SS...2) REPEATS  3)  RD1 and S40  4) OTB4L and MC

I rarely play TB4L so I am not qualified to have an opinion. 

Let me emphasize that this is just my experience and is based on flatbetting. If you use the 1 2 LOOP or NP's...OTB4L tends to move up the scale. My experience Flatbetting with OTB4L is that you have to recognise the OT Triggers and get on and then get off quickly and look for the next opportunity.

Just a few points to consider 

 

[XDN]

19 hours ago, ozscouser1 said:

Good man ...See how easy it is to spot that run of Player 2's and Banker 3's on the Tote Board. It may not be the way most play, but when you see such an obvious signal, it's best not to ignore it.

Hey Oz...you may have answered this in your previous, very detailed, post about how you play this shoe but I haven't worked through that post yet and wanted to ask a question about the run of Player 2's and Banker 3's. When would you start betting that run? Meaning would you place a bet after 323(confirmed) or maybe start after 3231? Or do you use it to signal later bets like Banker 2's going to 3's?

One of my playing flaws is, I see something like that, but by the time I have the confidence to bet it, it's over. The other potential flaw I see in my play is, I might place too many bets after starting to play the 2's 3's run. 

If this is already in your detailed play post, i'll have a look at it this weekend. Thank you!!

Edited August 25, 2016 by XDotNet

[trillion]

Oz, when you are referring to SS, does the weak side of shoe has to be have lots of 1,s or can it be like 4,2,4,2,6,3,5,2?????

[Pando]

47 minutes ago, ozscouser1 said:

Just another thing worth watching out for...My mentor again really rammed it home to me the strength of SS which I sometimes forget and I couldn't help myself and poured through heaps of my old shoes (old people with stuffed sleep patterns can do that shit) 

The upshot is that me not recognising SS patterns and taking the advice of Norm... "SS is a hundred times more reliable than OTB4L" has cost me the equivalent of a new house. How's that for a kick up the butt? 

Others may disagree, but I rate the reliability of the various "Biases"  in this order...1) SS...2) REPEATS  3)  RD1 and S40  4) OTB4L and MC

I rarely play TB4L so I am not qualified to have an opinion. 

Let me emphasize that this is just my experience and is based on flatbetting. If you use the 1 2 LOOP or NP's...OTB4L tends to move up the scale. My experience Flatbetting with OTB4L is that you have to recognise the OT Triggers and get on and then get off quickly and look for the next opportunity.

Just a few points to consider 

 

Great post Oz, thank you

[brad01]

Yes I absolutely agree as per 'how the cards fall'

SS and repeat are so strong when they run - hotter than S40 / OTBL

When I play roulette red / black I rarely play S40 or OTBL but mostly just wait for SS or repeat bias as I get a much better hit rate with them than S40 / OTBL

Roulette does tend to be more streaky than choppy though I feel

[LVRB089]

Thanks for contributing Mr. Oz!!  I worked through your play by play and found it helpful in confirming my strengths and weaknesses.  I have trouble with SS, but I really shouldn't.

I have it all printed out and I am sure I will keep it for reference when I feel lost.  I played a shoe today that had a SS bias to start shoe, then just repeats, then OTB4l, and last but not least opposites.  I didnt make enuf on the SS, just dont trust it.  But I will heed you and your mentors instruction as to the strength of SS.

I enjoy your humor and always look forward to your posts.

Thanks again

[ECD]

14 minutes ago, trillion said:

Oz, when you are referring to SS, does the weak side of shoe has to be have lots of 1,s or can it be like 4,2,4,2,6,3,5,2?????

Definitely 1's before I start betting SS, but if I am well into a serious SS, I will look at a third bet opp the 2iar or wait to see if the 2iar stays 2 and if it switches, I will risk one more bet on SS  . I used to make the mistake of waiting until I saw two single 1's on the opp side before starting to bet, but now I will look at a probing bet after a single on the opp side following a run of 4+ as in B1 2 4 1 1...Despite the prev 2  on P ...I would make the Probing bet OTR ...If it loses, I look for other opportunities.

As for your example 4,2,4,2,6,3,5,2 ??? Even though the SS is going OK...If I saw this series of events, I would be licking my lips...There would only be two considerations here for me...OTB4L and REPEATS...The first 4iar wouldn't be the end of the world if you were already betting OTB4L (unless you were flatbetting )...4,2,4,2 is a strong repeat signal with OT confirming, but 4,2,4,1 would already have me betting Repeats , but with the shoe hitting 4,2,4,2...I would be switching to OT and switching again back to repeats because of the previous two 4's and I would stay with Repeats all the way.

BTW: 2,4,2 is a really strong trigger for OTB4L if there is some recent history eg 2,3,1,1,4,2,4,2... (4,2,2 by itself not so good ...at best 50/50)If you weren't already betting OT or Repeats this is a Gimme OT bet for the next 2 bets when the previous 4's would tell you to switch to Repeats even after winning your two OT bets. This is a classic case of switching from an already winning Bias to a stronger Bias 

Assuming that your example was from the beginning of the shoe...I would have entered the shoe definitely at H12 and if I happened to miss the boat...4,2,4,2 is screaming to switch sides at H13 and from there, the shoe plays itself. Simply flatbetting would give me +11...the conservative 1 2 Loop (flatbet till +5)would give +17

I've found that the most reliable triggers for OTB4L are in order of strength 1) 2,3,2...  2) 2,4,2...3) 3,2,2 ... 4) 2.2,3... if 3's are MC  5) 4,2,2...if 2's are running 6) 2,2,4 if 4's are MC ...with one proviso...and read my lips "ALL THESE OTB4L TRIGGERS WORK BETTER WITH  PRIOR HISTORY"

[ECD]

12 minutes ago, rbry074 said:

Thanks for contributing Mr. Oz!!  I worked through your play by play and found it helpful in confirming my strengths and weaknesses.  I have trouble with SS, but I really shouldn't.

I have it all printed out and I am sure I will keep it for reference when I feel lost.  I played a shoe today that had a SS bias to start shoe, then just repeats, then OTB4l, and last but not least opposites.  I didnt make enuf on the SS, just dont trust it.  But I will heed you and your mentors instruction as to the strength of SS.

I enjoy your humor and always look forward to your posts.

Thanks again

 

A wise man once said  (I think it was me...LOL)..."Any shoe you don't lose is a good shoe" 

SS plays itself once you are on board...The trick is to recognise it and then not to hop off too early. (and don't be frightened to make that 2 unit bet when both SS and S40 are screaming at you to make the bet.) 

[LVRB089]

3 minutes ago, ozscouser1 said:

A wise man once said  (I think it was me...LOL)..."Any shoe you don't lose is a good shoe" 

SS plays itself once you are on board...The trick is to recognise it and then not to hop off too early. (and don't be frightened to make that 2 unit bet when both SS and S40 are screaming at you to make the bet.) 

Got It, O Wise One!!

[ECD]

4 hours ago, ozscouser1 said:

Just another thing worth watching out for...My mentor again really rammed it home to me the strength of SS which I sometimes forget and I couldn't help myself and poured through heaps of my old shoes (old people with stuffed sleep patterns can do that shit) 

The upshot is that me not recognising SS patterns and taking the advice of Norm... "SS is a hundred times more reliable than OTB4L" has cost me the equivalent of a new house. How's that for a kick up the butt? 

Others may disagree, but I rate the reliability of the various "Biases"  in this order...1) SS...2) REPEATS  3)  RD1 and S40  4) OTB4L and MC

I rarely play TB4L so I am not qualified to have an opinion. 

Let me emphasize that this is just my experience and is based on flatbetting. If you use the 1 2 LOOP or NP's...OTB4L tends to move up the scale. My experience Flatbetting with OTB4L is that you have to recognise the OT Triggers and get on and then get off quickly and look for the next opportunity.

Just a few points to consider 

 

 

I forgot all about "betting on the run"...or OTR...I generally don't go OTR if it is an isolated event unless I have prior history of a +4 event and I am well ahead in the shoe. It's all about risk management.

[Pando]

These last few posts from OZ and the replies to them are baccarat GOLD

Thanks to everyone, please keep it going

 

[avion]

Absolutely thank you Oz for the sharing of your time, hard work, and expertise.

[BacPlayer]

Wow OZ. This is one of the best posts I have seen in the forum explaining exactly the thought process and how and why.  Thanks for helping out. 

I am having trouble with Understanding RD1 / MC / SAP events  

Can somebody explain with a shoe example so it becomes clear  

 

[XDN]

2 hours ago, BacPlayer said:

Wow OZ. This is one of the best posts I have seen in the forum explaining exactly the thought process and how and why.  Thanks for helping out. 

I am having trouble with Understanding RD1 / MC / SAP events  

Can somebody explain with a shoe example so it becomes clear  

 

Hi BacPlayer. There is an excellent thread by PapaJoe that helped me understand SAP very well. PapaJoe and some other skilled players spent a lot of time researching SAP and developed a document on how they think is best to play SAP. I'm not advocating or critiquing the bet selections that papajoe has document,  but his thread and bet selection rules should help your understanding out a bunch. Katchez's 5D book uses 4D and MDB bets, however, it's pretty deep and might not be the best starting point. 5D is a great work by Kevin but you'll want to understand SAP and MDB before trying to understand 5D. 

 

In a nutshell...a very incomplete nutshell   SAP keeps track of the number of events in a shoe (1's, 2's, 3's 4+s). Example BP would be a confirmed 1 event for Banker. BBP would be a confirmed 2 event, BBBP is a confirmed banker 3 and BBBBBBBBBBP is a confirmed banker 4+. The 1234 events are weighted by a multiplier based on their expected occurance in a shoe and written down on a score sheet.You really have to look at the score sheet to understand (and it's not difficult).

1's are scored as 1 - Most common event in the shoe statistically (50% ish of the average events)

2's are scored as 2 - Next Most common event (25% ish of the average number of events in a shoe)

3's are scored as 4 - Next most common

4'+s are scored as 8 - Next most common

So when you keep this score, if 3's are the highest score in the shoe, 3's are the MC or Most common event. You could bet a 2 to go to a 3 or a 3 to stay a 3

Check out papajoes thread, it's an extensive subject but he has rules document for his bet selection and a sample score card that will put you well on your way!

RD1 - I've not been able to find a good post on the "rules" so if anyone knows of a good RD1 thread i'd appreciate seeing it too

Edited August 26, 2016 by XDotNet

[Wendel]

1 hour ago, XDotNet said:

Hi BacPlayer. There is an excellent thread by PapaJoe that helped me understand SAP very well. PapaJoe and some other skilled players spent a lot of time researching SAP and developed a document on how they think is best to play SAP. I'm not advocating or critiquing the bet selections that papajoe has document,  but his thread and bet selection rules should help your understanding out a bunch. Katchez's 5D book uses 4D and MDB bets, however, it's pretty deep and might not be the best starting point. 5D is a great work by Kevin but you'll want to understand SAP and MDB before trying to understand 5D. 

 

In a nutshell...a very incomplete nutshell   SAP keeps track of the number of events in a shoe (1's, 2's, 3's 4+s). Example BP would be a confirmed 1 event for Banker. BBP would be a confirmed 2 event, BBBP is a confirmed banker 3 and BBBBBBBBBBP is a confirmed banker 4+. The 1234 events are weighted by a multiplier based on their expected occurance in a shoe and written down on a score sheet.You really have to look at the score sheet to understand (and it's not difficult).

1's are scored as 1 - Most common event in the shoe statistically (50% ish of the average events)

2's are scored as 2 - Next Most common event (25% ish of the average number of events in a shoe)

3's are scored as 4 - Next most common

4'+s are scored as 8 - Next most common

So when you keep this score, if 3's are the highest score in the shoe, 3's are the MC or Most common event. You could bet a 2 to go to a 3 or a 3 to stay a 3

Check out papajoes thread, it's an extensive subject but he has rules document for his bet selection and a sample score card that will put you well on your way!

RD1 - I've not been able to find a good post on the "rules" so if anyone knows of a good RD1 thread i'd appreciate seeing it too

CT70 supplied a RD1 manual if that helps. here is the link

 

[wolfat]

These are the original rules, in brief:

 

 "We can call it RD1 for now.

Starting at play 2 with a 1 bet, bet U1D2 M2 on repeats except bet straight down when you lose the bet under a 1 in a row and straight down when you lose the bet under a 1, 2 (under a 2 in a row that immediately follows a 1 in a row). Otherwise, repeats (Under the previous circle.)

You'll see that now you beat every straight run, every ZZ run, every TT run as well as the 212's."

[XDN]

Thank you!!