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Are casinos really creating the biases...


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Keith Smith

By the way if you have downloads of manuals anyone can add them to the download section for all to use.

You can tell the winners and honest players by how many times they admit they lost 
not by how many times they say they won.

Need Information Messenger

https://m.me/beatthecasinodotcom

司奇士

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10 minutes ago, douglasb53 said:

Oz, What do you think of RD1? At the beginning of the manual it says you beat every straight run, zz run, and TT run. What does it not like?

Don't believe the marketing hype.  It doesn't beat EVERY run.  Just work it out and you will see how it gets clobbered by short ZZ's and 2iars -- Oh, and those are BY FAR the most common events.  There are changes you can make to reduce some of the pain and keep you in the game longer while you wait for the long runs which it likes.  CT70 is the go to for RD1

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way2fast I agree as even in the example shoe I found and posted on here, from hand 37 to 44 there are 7 losses and 1 win.  Using the U1D2 M2, the shoe never got back to the +23 on hand 36.  I would not use that negative progression to the extent that it is, and I understand it was used for "demonstration" purposes.  While the example of the shoe I posted was for demonstration purposes, I do embrace the concepts of short term set ups. 

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1 hour ago, douglasb53 said:

Oz, What do you think of RD1? At the beginning of the manual it says you beat every straight run, zz run, and TT run. What does it not like?

See Way2Fast answer...If I see a likely RD1...I give it one probing bet and if it loses, I hightail it outta there. If it wins I will keep going (betting OTR) until the end. If I lose two iar RD1 bets, I stop and wait.  

The one major advantage of RD1 that I see is that it gets you OTR really early  and if it turns out to be more than a half decent run, a 1 2 Loop or 2 3 Loop murder it.

Remember..."Risk minimisation" 

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18 minutes ago, avion said:

way2fast I agree as even in the example shoe I found and posted on here, from hand 37 to 44 there are 7 losses and 1 win.  Using the U1D2 M2, the shoe never got back to the +23 on hand 36.  I would not use that negative progression to the extent that it is, and I understand it was used for "demonstration" purposes.  While the example of the shoe I posted was for demonstration purposes, I do embrace the concepts of short term set ups. 

 

I NEVER...EVER...EVER lose 3iar without stopping and waiting and watching for my next chance to bet. Generally, I stop after two losses unless well in front. I consider each bet I make after 3 losses iar a "PROBE" bet. If it loses, I wait for the next chance and so on... The vast majority of shoes have a "sweet spot" and the aim of the game is to still be in the shoe when it hits  

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I hear ya Oz, perfectly clear regarding NEVER EVER lose 3iar.   Also on the "probe bet" if it loses to 'WAIT" for the next possible opportunity.  Great money management and bet selection that doesn't chase losses.  

We should write new lyrics to that song "because you know I'm all about that bass...no treble", by Meghan Trainor to "because you know I am all about that bias...no losing."   

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Oh the lights may have just turned on.....(aka aha moment)   Correct me if I am wrong please, with the "probe bets" that doesn't chase the losses, this is why you shared regarding not having a stop loss to be present when the "sweet spot bias" comes along?  

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10 minutes ago, avion said:

Oh the lights may have just turned on.....(aka aha moment)   Correct me if I am wrong please, with the "probe bets" that doesn't chase the losses, this is why you shared regarding not having a stop loss to be present when the "sweet spot bias" comes along?  

I may describe it differently that Oz, but it is all about BEING AT THE TABLE when you hit the sweet spot.  Until then, preserving capital is what will separate the winners from losers.

It doesn't matter what bias the sweet spot is -- you have to be ready to capitalize on what the shoe gives you.

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BacPlayer

Oz, way2fast, Brad

u guys are way too awesome. your posts are very very informative. The concept of money management I believe is the key and you all seem to affirm that. If u stay alive by losing less in bad sections u can kill the good sections of the shoe. 

As a beginner let me ask you this question. 

Do we need to know all systems and use all systems simultaneously in the same shoe. I know each shoe has various sections that can utilize different strategies. 

what would u categorize as systems that are must knows/nice to know  

I want to prepare a cheat sheet to list systems/when to use/ when not to use/ entry trigger / exit trigger  

do you think it's a good idea?

thanks

 

 

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Thanks way2fast.....your two sentences you wrote....will save beginners, intermediates, and pros..........literally thousands of dollars, extreme head aches, frustration, and worst of all......losing, along with the positive aspects of making the most of a winning situation.  

"Preserving Capital" and being "Present at the Table"......."when you hit the sweet spot".   EPIC....PROFOUND....PRICELESS 

It's difficult for me to be speechless......But right now I am totally speechless because of the IMPACT of what you wrote and shared.  Thank you my friend.......thank you.

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5 minutes ago, BacPlayer said:

Oz, way2fast, Brad

u guys are way too awesome. your posts are very very informative. The concept of money management I believe is the key and you all seem to affirm that. If u stay alive by losing less in bad sections u can kill the good sections of the shoe. 

As a beginner let me ask you this question. 

Do we need to know all systems and use all systems simultaneously in the same shoe. I know each shoe has various sections that can utilize different strategies. 

what would u categorize as systems that are must knows/nice to know  

I want to prepare a cheat sheet to list systems/when to use/ when not to use/ entry trigger / exit trigger  

do you think it's a good idea?

thanks

1

I'll narrow it down as much as poss...MUST KNOW...SS...REPEATS...RD1...S40...OTB4L...MC and LC events and you can throw in TB4L if you like for shoes with negligible  2iar's . 

With S40...I think modes only come into it if you are playing Negative Progressions...otherwise you are simply betting opposites and after losing two bets iar to the 3iar...you stop betting UNLESS...and read my lips " the 3iar is a MC event" which automatically puts you in the right Mode either way. 

I've already told you the exit triggers...two losses iar...should have you at least thinking seriously of getting the hell out of Dodge...three losses is a definite STOP BETTING and WAIT sign...or if you choose to ignore the signs and keep betting to four losses or more...check with your mother to see if she dropped you on your head as a baby.

5 minutes ago, BacPlayer said:

I

 

 

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45 minutes ago, avion said:

"Preserving Capital" and being "Present at the Table"......."when you hit the sweet spot".   EPIC....PROFOUND....PRICELESS 

And yet so SIMPLE and OBVIOUS. 

The more you learn about this game, the more you realize the "keep it simple" principle applies.  If you are all wrapped up in some system that has you tracking 10 things, writing so much you can't get your bets up in time, net betting this with that, etc. then you are making it too complex. 

I am NOT saying it is EASY to win -- but it will be EASIER when you keep it SIMPLE.

Those searching for the mechanical set of rules that beat all shoes will never SEE the simplicity of finding good set-ups and quickly striking while the bias lasts. 

Those over-analyzing the patterns and reading too much into them will never SEE the simplicity of what the events are telling them. 

Yes, you need to be very familiar with all the details of HOW to play all the methods -- Oz said it well that you have to do the HARD work.  But when you have a real DEEP understanding, you will then finally SEE THE SHOE CLEARLY and will understand the value of a SIMPLE approach.

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3 minutes ago, XDotNet said:

Oz, what do we need to do to keep you typing? Adult beverages, ladies B)? You name it, you got it just keep typing brother!!  :D:D

Keep him away from dangerous farm animals and Kiwi's.  Lol.

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2 minutes ago, way2fast said:

And yet so SIMPLE and OBVIOUS. 

The more you learn about this game, the more you realize the "keep it simple" principle applies.  If you are all wrapped up in some system that has you tracking 10 things, writing so much you can't get your bets up in time, net betting this with that, etc. then you are making it too complex. 

I am NOT saying it is EASY to win -- just that your approach should be SIMPLE and supported by common logic. 

Those searching for the mechanical set of rules that beat all shoes will never SEE the simplicity of finding good set-ups and quickly striking while the bias lasts. 

Those over-analyzing the patterns and reading too much into them will never SEE the simplicity of what the events are telling them. 

Yes, you need to be very familiar with all the details of HOW to play all the methods -- Oz said it well that you have to do the HARD work.  But when you have a real DEEP understanding, you will then finally SEE THE SHOE CLEARLY and will understand the value of a SIMPLE approach.

 

I wish I'd said that...

 

Hang on a tic...I did...sorta...LOL

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2 minutes ago, avion said:

Okay Oz.......(can't wait to hear the comeback)  what do we need to keep way2fast away from?    lol 

Given that he will be heading to NZ...The same as me...keep him away from hungry Kiwis. 

Eating in restaurants in NZ is a bit like eating in restaurants in Bali...You can order a beef dish...chicken ...or lamb...and then you hear a yelp and note that the little doggie you were patting a few mins ago has disappeared...In NZ you gotta watch out for Aussie Rugby Players at the same restaurant...If one goes missing and you hear a yelp...Don't order the chicken.

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1 minute ago, ozscouser1 said:

Given that he will be heading to NZ...The same as me...keep him away from hungry Kiwis. 

Eating in restaurants in NZ is a bit like eating in restaurants in Bali...You can order a beef dish...chicken ...or lamb...and then you hear a yelp and note that the little doggie you were patting a few mins ago has disappeared...In NZ you gotta watch out for Aussie Rugby Players at the same restaurant...If one goes missing and you hear a yelp...Don't order the chicken.

 

I win...Do I get a prize?

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