Jump to content

Are casinos really creating the biases...


Recommended Posts

Oz, you both get the prize for sharing such fun and entertaining humor.  It is great to share good humor as it takes the edge off a lot of things and makes everything enjoyable.  truly, thank you.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 125
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • ECD

    42

  • avion

    17

  • brad01

    14

  • BacPlayer

    12

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

I forgot all about "betting on the run"...or OTR...I generally don't go OTR if it is an isolated event unless I have prior history of a +4 event and I am well ahead in the shoe. It's all about risk ma

Hi BacPlayer. Regarding playing  MDB+ (using the w2fast rules) The best way to play it is to "Enhance the Probability" of a successful bet placement. Oz. (his "Mentor" and the great Nor

OK...if 1's and 2's and are running... eg P1 2 1 1 2 4... Looking at this scenario, I would have most likely been betting S40 (opposites) and would have stopped betting after two losses (after  the B4

Posted Images

Just quickly...we all struggle timewise to do what we have to do, but when it comes to Baccarat "smarts"...I use this method. I pretty much ignore my high winning shoes because I know that whatever adjustments I make...they are still going to be high winning shoes. It's the shoes that you struggle with or lose that you need to really look at. Copy them out again without your bets and dissect them with a fine toothed comb, a hand at a time. (similar to my play by play of Brad's shoe). Very seldom in a losing shoe will there not be room to move. Write down your reasons for your decision to bet or not to bet next to your bet on your score sheet. If you aren't sure...then write that down too with your reasons. This could take a while till you get used to it but I guarantee that your play will improve in leaps and bounds.

When you've finished a few shoes...go back and compare  with your original results. Even if you just do this for 10 shoes you will grow in confidence.

After 10 shoes...analyse your results...note your weaknesses and your strengths and note what you could do differently  to improve your score or reduce your loss.. Write down on a BIG notepad your playing method in each situation so that you can read it time and time again. 

Then grab another 10 of your old "struggle" shoes and play them with your newfound knowledge...and do the same with these next 10 shoes as you did earlier. You will no doubt pick up a few more ideas...and when you do...it's back to the first 10 shoes and play them again. (Also...for the sake of the exercise...Flatbet only...NP's give a false sense of your playing ability)...Then check out the 1 2 Loop or it's little brother...the 2 3 Loop

This may sound like a pain in the butt, but it will do the trick if you put the time and effort in. Most won't, which is why we will always have casinos.

BTW: I still revisit my struggle shoes from years ago and am astounded at how much I still am able to improve my play. Some shoes I've probably played a dozen or more times.

It's your choice...nobody (apart from Ellis) said it was gonna be easy.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, way2fast said:

Don't believe the marketing hype.  It doesn't beat EVERY run.  Just work it out and you will see how it gets clobbered by short ZZ's and 2iars -- Oh, and those are BY FAR the most common events.  There are changes you can make to reduce some of the pain and keep you in the game longer while you wait for the long runs which it likes.  CT70 is the go to for RD1

Thx W2F,

Guys, my suggestion would be to use RD1 temporarily like you would use TB4L. You wouldn't use TB4L in a shoe with high 2s, or for the entire shoe. Likewise, you shouldn't use RD1 where you have sporadic 1s. When you're seeing 3s and 4+'s separated by 4zz+'s, that's the time to use RD1.

Remember, we have other weapons at our disposal. Don't tie yourself down. There are shifts within all shoes, you need to shift with the shoe.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, CT70 said:

Thx W2F,

Guys, my suggestion would be to use RD1 temporarily like you would use TB4L. You wouldn't use TB4L in a shoe with high 2s, or for the entire shoe. Likewise, you shouldn't use RD1 where you have sporadic 1s. When you're seeing 3s and 4+'s separated by 4zz+'s, that's the time to use RD1.

Remember, we have other weapons at our disposal. Don't tie yourself down. There are shifts within all shoes, you need to shift with the shoe.

 

I too bow down to the master of RD1...not to mention U1D2B2...Don't ask...LOL

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

We are already lined up 3 deep in bowing down to the master of RD1.....are there are more loyal and faithful devotees here?   Just realized it is Friday night, and all the young ones are in a casino, and us old farts are sitting around with heating pads and ointment on our aches and pains.....lol

Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, avion said:

We are already lined up 3 deep in bowing down to the master of RD1.....are there are more loyal and faithful devotees here?   Just realized it is Friday night, and all the young ones are in a casino, and us old farts are sitting around with heating pads and ointment on our aches and pains.....lol

Haha...well, I'm watching my 5 month old while my wife works...but ya I do notice an ache or two now that u mentioned it. Thanks for the rd1 shoe! If my daughter will sleep, I'd like to digest oz's previous post and the rd1 as well. OK back to the heating pad hahaha

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, ozscouser1 said:

I'll narrow it down as much as poss...MUST KNOW...SS...REPEATS...RD1...S40...OTB4L...MC and LC events and you can throw in TB4L if you like for shoes with negligible  2iar's . 

With S40...I think modes only come into it if you are playing Negative Progressions...otherwise you are simply betting opposites and after losing two bets iar to the 3iar...you stop betting UNLESS...and read my lips " the 3iar is a MC event" which automatically puts you in the right Mode either way. 

I've already told you the exit triggers...two losses iar...should have you at least thinking seriously of getting the hell out of Dodge...three losses is a definite STOP BETTING and WAIT sign...or if you choose to ignore the signs and keep betting to four losses or more...check with your mother to see if she dropped you on your head as a baby.

 

I play that ever so slightly different, you stop betting UNLESS...and read my lips " the 3iar is a MC [RECENT] event"

I added the "recent" bit to the phrase, its just the way I see it as most shoes change at some point

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, ozscouser1 said:

Where the heck did you find that?...I was still in diapers when it was written (sorta)...LOL...Nice work.

I only posted the RD manual. It was written by PapaJoe. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
BacPlayer
On 8/25/2016 at 10:23 PM, ozscouser1 said:

I forgot all about "betting on the run"...or OTR...I generally don't go OTR if it is an isolated event unless I have prior history of a +4 event and I am well ahead in the shoe. It's all about risk management.

Hi OZ , Can you please throw more light on this?

Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, BacPlayer said:

Hi OZ , Can you please throw more light on this?

OK...if 1's and 2's and are running... eg P1 2 1 1 2 4... Looking at this scenario, I would have most likely been betting S40 (opposites) and would have stopped betting after two losses (after  the B4 hit 3iar)  A 4iar preceded by a run of 1's and 2's makes the run of 4+ an isolated event. If there is one or more  previous 4iar's  with no history of 4's going to 5+'s I will bet opp the last 4 as a MC event (only if I am ahead in the shoe)  If there is no prior history of 4's going to 5+, I am unlikely to bet OTR unless I am really well ahead in the shoe in which case I might make a probing bet. REMEMBER...I operate on the premise ..."If an event hasn't already occurred (history) then I proceed as if it is not going to happen". I only want to bet on events that have already occurred. 

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, ozscouser1 said:

Just quickly...we all struggle timewise to do what we have to do, but when it comes to Baccarat "smarts"...I use this method. I pretty much ignore my high winning shoes because I know that whatever adjustments I make...they are still going to be high winning shoes. It's the shoes that you struggle with or lose that you need to really look at. Copy them out again without your bets and dissect them with a fine toothed comb, a hand at a time. (similar to my play by play of Brad's shoe). Very seldom in a losing shoe will there not be room to move. Write down your reasons for your decision to bet or not to bet next to your bet on your score sheet. If you aren't sure...then write that down too with your reasons. This could take a while till you get used to it but I guarantee that your play will improve in leaps and bounds.

When you've finished a few shoes...go back and compare  with your original results. Even if you just do this for 10 shoes you will grow in confidence.

After 10 shoes...analyse your results...note your weaknesses and your strengths and note what you could do differently  to improve your score or reduce your loss.. Write down on a BIG notepad your playing method in each situation so that you can read it time and time again. 

Then grab another 10 of your old "struggle" shoes and play them with your newfound knowledge...and do the same with these next 10 shoes as you did earlier. You will no doubt pick up a few more ideas...and when you do...it's back to the first 10 shoes and play them again. (Also...for the sake of the exercise...Flatbet only...NP's give a false sense of your playing ability)...Then check out the 1 2 Loop or it's little brother...the 2 3 Loop

This may sound like a pain in the butt, but it will do the trick if you put the time and effort in. Most won't, which is why we will always have casinos.

BTW: I still revisit my struggle shoes from years ago and am astounded at how much I still am able to improve my play. Some shoes I've probably played a dozen or more times.

It's your choice...nobody (apart from Ellis) said it was gonna be easy.

 

Thanks Oz, as you clearly illustrate what the "hard work" is to become better.  We all know the phrase, "work smarter not harder" and yet no matter what profession it might be, I always see both aspects.....in working smarter and working harder.  Yes, I agree with "it is a pain", but it sure beats the pain of losing.  This is the type of "homework" that no one can do for anyone.  Each must do it on their own. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

With the mindset of making things easier, simple, and effective, I am going to repost what way2fast shared a little while back.  As I use BaS40 but not the secondary progression of it, when I read his post, it was brilliant in several ways. Just the money management of it is "worth its weight in gold".   Strategies like this, I would give both my left and right one for.  Both work just fine, the point being this is exactly what I am craving for in what will be easier, simple, and effective.

 posted by way2fast....."The S40 set up I found works best for me is five consecutive 1 and 2 events, provided that the number of 1's is greater or equal to the number of 2's.  The strongest signal is where the most recent event is a 2 (i.e. 12112; 11112; 21112, etc).  Once I have the signal, I bet 1 unit on opposites.  If I lose, the sequence is over (-1 stop loss).  If I win, I bet 2 units opposite.  If the second bet losses I will flat bet 1 unit on opposites until hitting -2 or +2.  If that second bet wins, I am at +3 and will stop betting and wait for the next 2iar and then start a new sequence, provided the five event setup is still in place."

It's nirvana and utopia all rolled into one.  Thanks again way2fast.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, avion said:

With the mindset of making things easier, simple, and effective, I am going to repost what way2fast shared a little while back.  As I use BaS40 but not the secondary progression of it, when I read his post, it was brilliant in several ways. Just the money management of it is "worth its weight in gold".   Strategies like this, I would give both my left and right one for.  Both work just fine, the point being this is exactly what I am craving for in what will be easier, simple, and effective.

 posted by way2fast....."The S40 set up I found works best for me is five consecutive 1 and 2 events, provided that the number of 1's is greater or equal to the number of 2's.  The strongest signal is where the most recent event is a 2 (i.e. 12112; 11112; 21112, etc).  Once I have the signal, I bet 1 unit on opposites.  If I lose, the sequence is over (-1 stop loss).  If I win, I bet 2 units opposite.  If the second bet losses I will flat bet 1 unit on opposites until hitting -2 or +2.  If that second bet wins, I am at +3 and will stop betting and wait for the next 2iar and then start a new sequence, provided the five event setup is still in place."

It's nirvana and utopia all rolled into one.  Thanks again way2fast.

 

I use a similar trigger for S40 except at the beginning of the shoe...for me...the 1 2 1 1 2 is the perfect start...not so the 1 1 1 1 2 because I haven't seen a previous 2iar (remember...If I haven't already seen it then I'm not betting on the unknown)...I would wait to see if the 2 stayed 2 and then start betting after the next opp...also with the 2 1 1 1 2 ...I will wait for the last 2 to stay 2 and proceed as above. Why is that, I hear you asking when there has been a previous 2iar?...we don't count the first event in Baccarat (for a whole heap of reasons that I can't be arsed going into at the moment) The first event can be counted as a multiple only if it's a 2+...but for single and 2's or MC or even LC events, it doesn't come under consideration. Further into the shoe is fine ...I'm betting that's what Way2Fast was talking about. Also...If you have a sequence of 1's and 2's interrupted by a small run of 3 4 or 5...the odds are strong that the S40 run will continue (especially if the  prior event to the run was a 1 )... it get a little dicey if the prior event is a 2 and it's best to either wait an extra hand before hopping back onto the S40 bandwagon...or have a close look at recent history (number of 2's) and it could be worth a repeat bet so you have 2 3 2 ...remembering then, that this has switched you straight onto the perfect OTB4L start.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
William Looi
25 minutes ago, ozscouser1 said:

I use a similar trigger for S40 except at the beginning of the shoe...for me...the 1 2 1 1 2 is the perfect start...not so the 1 1 1 1 2 because I haven't seen a previous 2iar (remember...If I haven't already seen it then I'm not betting on the unknown)...I would wait to see if the 2 stayed 2 and then start betting after the next opp...also with the 2 1 1 1 2 ...I will wait for the last 2 to stay 2 and proceed as above. Why is that, I hear you asking when there has been a previous 2iar?...we don't count the first event in Baccarat (for a whole heap of reasons that I can't be arsed going into at the moment) The first event can be counted as a multiple only if it's a 2+...but for single and 2's or MC or even LC events, it doesn't come under consideration. Further into the shoe is fine ...I'm betting that's what Way2Fast was talking about. Also...If you have a sequence of 1's and 2's interrupted by a small run of 3 4 or 5...the odds are strong that the S40 run will continue (especially if the  prior event to the run was a 1 )... it get a little dicey if the prior event is a 2 and it's best to either wait an extra hand before hopping back onto the S40 bandwagon...or have a close look at recent history (number of 2's) and it could be worth a repeat bet so you have 2 3 2 ...remembering then, that this has switched you straight onto the perfect OTB4L start.

Can you give your idea about this shoe?

ScreenHunter_006.gif

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ozscouser1 said:

we don't count the first event in Baccarat (for a whole heap of reasons that I can't be arsed going into at the moment) The first event can be counted as a multiple only if it's a 2+

Thanks Oz, and I do understand "the whole heap of reasons" regarding the first event in a shoe.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, William Looi said:

ScreenHunter_012.gif

 

These are both interesting shoes and I'll try and do a play by play later tonight. I think you could learn heaps from these 2 shoes. It would help if you were able to do a numbered scoresheet so that you would have an easy referral. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
William Looi
1 hour ago, ozscouser1 said:

These are both interesting shoes and I'll try and do a play by play later tonight. I think you could learn heaps from these 2 shoes. It would help if you were able to do a numbered scoresheet so that you would have an easy referral. 

I put this shoes in Excel spread sheet for your convenience to explain .

BTC 1.xls

Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, William Looi said:

Can you give your idea about this shoe?

ScreenHunter_006.gif

 
 

Sorry William, this will have to wait a couple of days...I have a daughter in the country...broken hand...broken milking machine...pissed off cows (soon to be even more pissed off after I've milked them with my carpel tunnel hands with no feeling)...You just know who is gonna be buying a new milking machine today...don't you...LOL

In the meantime at first glance...Look at Repeats...SS sticking with SS or moving to S40...multiples on the P side with MC confirming also S40 or just sticking with SS...easy shoe

 

Back in a few days...gotta go now... some serious driving to do...and milking to be done. A father's life...LOL

Edited by ECD
Link to post
Share on other sites

That's a great life and a great father.   Well done Oz.   As I am the father of two wonderful daughters, 2 excellent son in laws, and 4 awesome g-kids, they always have been, are and will be more important than anything else.   I am grateful that I am able to give them most of my winnings from bac.  They are all hard workers, responsible, and I love trying to make things easier for them in helping out.  

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Man that was an eye opener! I spent about 4 hours with this thread today, most of it on Ozs play by play and wow. I wasn't even close to this depth of analysis! Now I know enough to know that I don't know enough haha! Thanks everyone, now more work and practice!

FYI - I wrote a document that attempts to gather and consolidate the most important ideas in this thread. I've uploaded it to the downloads section. When Keith approves it, I'll post a link. When it's available I hope all of you will have a look and let me know if I left any good stuff out of the document that is in the thread.

Edited by XDotNet
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

Terms of Use