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FINALLY, THE TRUTH ABOUT BACCARAT!  BY E. CLIFTON DAVIS
Posted on September 14, 2016, 10:29 am By casinoforum.club
This is highly confidential information. Only a few select people know the truth about Baccarat. It is a very closely held secret. Dealers and Pit Bosses don’t have a clue. Of course neither do the players. The only people who know are top echelon casino executives and top echelon shuffle machine manufacturer executives and some of the card manufacturers... and every member of BTC...LOL... I feel "SPECIAL"

 

Three of my students have gone past the million dollar mark.

Two of those went past the 2 million mark.

Nothing special about those guys –OK...That was short lived. My feelings are hurt.

 

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7 minutes ago, ozscouser1 said:

FINALLY, THE TRUTH ABOUT BACCARAT!  BY E. CLIFTON DAVIS
Posted on September 14, 2016, 10:29 am By casinoforum.club
This is highly confidential information. Only a few select people know the truth about Baccarat. It is a very closely held secret. Dealers and Pit Bosses don’t have a clue. Of course neither do the players. The only people who know are top echelon casino executives and top echelon shuffle machine manufacturer executives and some of the card manufacturers... and every member of BTC...LOL... I feel "SPECIAL"

 

Three of my students have gone past the million dollar mark.

Two of those went past the 2 million mark.

Nothing special about those guys –OK...That was short lived. My feelings are hurt.

 

It's a "What have you done for me lately" world we live in.  You really have to question his business decisions when he alienates his top players.  It's like the Bulls kicking off Jordan and Pippen and expecting the fans to still come back. 

I am thinking he heard about your 64 year old foreskin.  lol

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3 hours ago, ozscouser1 said:

Three of my students have gone past the million dollar mark.

Two of those went past the 2 million mark.

Nothing special about those guys

Really?  "my students"...."past the million dollar mark"......"nothing special about those guys"....Really?

The only thing that isn't special about that, is the self-serving ego that uses people and then throws them away like a waded up piece of paper into the garbage can, when it is no longer "all about me."  

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Okay, I will chime in, and hope not to offend...

1. Anytime someone says the casino started dealing anti-NOR shoes when they walked in.

2. Anytime someone says there is such a thing as a 'designer shoe'.

3. Anytime someone says that a casino can order a particular type of shoe 'type' from the card packing companies.

4. Anytime someone says that a Shufflemaster card shuffler can be set to create a certain type of shoe, or the shuffle can be modified management.

"...and the mind sees what it wants to see..." Robert Langdon, The DaVinci Code

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20 minutes ago, pauld said:

Okay, I will chime in, and hope not to offend...

1. Anytime someone says the casino started dealing anti-NOR shoes when they walked in.

2. Anytime someone says there is such a thing as a 'designer shoe'.

3. Anytime someone says that a casino can order a particular type of shoe 'type' from the card packing companies.

4. Anytime someone says that a Shufflemaster card shuffler can be set to create a certain type of shoe, or the shuffle can be modified management.

"...and the mind sees what it wants to see..." Robert Langdon, The DaVinci Code

I'm not offended by what you said, but I don't agree with you. I happen to know that #2,#3 and #4 are real and happen all the time.  

Re: #1, at a point in time a long time ago, casinos were dealing NOR shoes. They didn't just change over to preshuffled cards recently. That happened a few years ago. 

By the way, NOR shoes are just another word for "hand shuffled" shoes. They mean the same thing. Some online and land casinos still deal NOR/hand shuffled shoes.

CT70

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16 hours ago, pauld said:

Okay, I will chime in, and hope not to offend...

1. Anytime someone says the casino started dealing anti-NOR shoes when they walked in.

2. Anytime someone says there is such a thing as a 'designer shoe'.

3. Anytime someone says that a casino can order a particular type of shoe 'type' from the card packing companies.

4. Anytime someone says that a Shufflemaster card shuffler can be set to create a certain type of shoe, or the shuffle can be modified management.

"...and the mind sees what it wants to see..." Robert Langdon, The DaVinci Code

NOR is a acronym for three types of shoes, those that are neutral which means random and no bias, those that favor repeats and those that favor opposites.  

I truly believe that the fatal flaw that we all make from time to time is the believe that Opposite and Repeat shoes occur because there is an identifiable bias in a game when in fact you are really just seeing a random distribution of a shoe. When you say that you won the hand because the last hand was a two in a row and it tends to repeat know,  that you have a pretty good chance of guessing correctly. We then identify this game as a bias when in fact it was chance.  For us to identify it as a bias we must look to other factors and identify the cause. In many cases we have said,  as some of the quotes point to: Casino Manipulation.  The cause for it to be a true variation from random must have a scientific reason. Over many years we have used Casino Manipulation like the God Delusion where anything we think is a bias and win (or lose for that matter) we assign Casino Manipulation. At times we have failed  and have not analyze the circumstance honestly and offered or realized that it  could be luck, since we have looked no further, we assign it to  casino manipulation (Shuffle).  I strongly suggest you pick up and read the book Fooled by Randomness

Taleb argues that human beings are genetically hardwired to misattribute the results of human endeavors to skill and knowledge that are, in fact, just coincidental, random events.

We now are thinking in a different way to some extent, we are thinking SAP ( VIN SAP)  that in a random situation we usually see 1s,(18) 2s( 9),3s (4,5),4s (2.25)5s (1.25) 6s (less than 1). as a matter of fact within in an X sampling of hands , 99.7% of those events will occur enough randomly. What that means on a scatter chart chart you will see one 6 in a row 1 time every 72 hands give or take.   So I need to look at Stats for profits and calculate the mean length of runs,  and then 1,2 and 3 standard deviations and then tell you what will be the longest event you can expect to see in a game of baccarat with near certainty of where we have shoes from.  

When we have the mean,  we can assign a count to the mean,  and use it to know whether to bet repeat or opposite because the mean count will tell us what the game is saying and how far off we are from the other shoes in the casino . In other words the average run length is 2.75 banker or players long.   As an example perhaps we notice in the Commerce casino the bell curve is off.  The mean run length is 1.25 on Banker  and too many on player at  7 long on that side. The bell curve is warped and not within specs and we are missing the middle statistics of random chance.  And furthermore we can then now ask is that Casino Manipulation on purpose? Maybe, Maybe not,  but according to statistics we are seeing a variation due to some process flaw, which now if they do not discover and correct to bring the cards back to random you can exploit with certainty, now you can make a million dollars no kidding. That is what we need to find keep diggin....

 

My 2 cents.

K

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23 minutes ago, Keith Smith said:

NOR is a acronym for three types of shoes, those that are neutral which means random and no bias, those that favor repeats and those that favor opposites.  

I truly believe that the fatal flaw that we all make from time to time is the believe that Opposite and Repeat shoes occur because there is an identifiable bias in a game when in fact you are really just seeing a random distribution of a shoe. When you say that you won the hand because the last hand was a two in a row and it tends to repeat know,  that you have a pretty good chance of guessing correctly. We then identify this game as a bias when in fact it was chance.  For us to identify it as a bias we must look to other factors and identify the cause. In many cases we have said as some of the quotes point to: Casino Manipulation.  The cause for it to be a true variation from random must have a scientific reason. Over many years we have used Casino Manipulation like the God Delusion at times where anything we think is a bias and win we assign Casino Manipulation. At times we have failed  and  have not analyze it honestly and offer that it  could be luck or is there some cause, since we have looked no further we say casino manipulation ( Shuffle).  I strongly suggest you pick up and read the book Fooled by Randomness

Taleb argues that human beings are genetically hardwired to misattribute the results of human endeavors to skill and knowledge that are, in fact, just coincidental, random events.

We now are thinking in a different way to some extent, we are thinking SAP ( VIN SAP)  that in a random situation we usually see 1s,(18) 2s( 9),3s (4,5),4s (2.25)5s (1.25) 6s (less than 1). as a matter of fact within in an X sampling of hands , 99.7% of those events will occur enough randomly. What that means on a scatter chart chart you will see one 6 in a row 1 time every 72 hands give or take.   So I need to look at Stats for profits and calculate the mean length of runs,  and then 1,2 and 3 standard deviations and then tell you what will be the longest event you can expect to see in a game of baccarat with near certainty of where we have shoes from.  

When we have the mean,  we can assign a count to the mean,  and use it to know whether to bet repeat or opposite because the mean count will tell us what the game is saying and how far off we are from the other shoes in the casino . In other words the average run length is 2.75 banker or players long.  on  In the Commerce casino the bell curve is off.  The mean run length is 1.25 on Banker  and too many on player at  7 long on that side. The bell curve is warped and not within specs and we are missing the middle statistics of random chance.  And furthermore we can then now conclude that it is Casino Manipulation on purpose maybe not,  but according to statistics we are seeing a variation due to some process flaw, which now if they do not discover and correct to bring the cards back to random you can exploit with certainty, now you can make a million dollars no kidding. 

 

My 2 cents.

K

THAT is one of the best posts I've read here. Good stuff, thank you!

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CT - perhaps some definition differences, but I would love to hear what has convinced you that 2,3,4 can actually happen and how it is done-did a casino employee outline how they create a shoe to do exactly what they want it to do? I'm not offended by what you said, but I don't agree with you. I happen to know that #2,#3 and #4 are real and happen all the time.   

 

This is a great point of how it is done.  When I practiced Blackjack and observed the shuffle the thought that many of us had if the cards are random why did they change the shuffle what was the difference.  Why did they add little twists like stripping the cards or different procedures, number of times shuffled etc. Why were they so concerned with placing the cards in the discard tray in the order they were left on the table etc.  So i practiced the shuffle and the casino conditions, over the years dealt many games and shuffled new cards exactly like they did in the casino, I mimicked the card pick up procedure and low and behold I taught myself that if I followed this to a Tee and took small picks of cards and a tight close intertwine I could beat almost any strategy that someone was playing with a table full  of players.  I got so good at shuffling cards I could do a perfect faro shuffle. I would challenge people to let me shuffle the cards and you play and bet what ever you want and I will beat you.  So I think that this phenomenon is real in conjunction with the card pick up procedure and how most people play.  I would always deal in my practice games phantom players playing basic strategy. I set up games that whether you played count strategy or clump strategy the dealer was so strong you could not find a way to win, needless to say unless you bet 5k on one hand and got lucky. 

 

So what we should do now is practice Baccarat with real cards and conditions and see what happens with real cards.  There are hand shuffled Baccarat Games and they start with BOX ordered cards do a wash, the same shuffle that the casino does and see if there is anything out of the ordinary. That would be a good starting point.  To Paul's point it is one thing to say this happens quite another to reproduce how. Of course we have many games in Stats for profits with real cards and when run against some of the MDB+ rules some showed a significant advantage in certain casinos.  If the they did this on purpose to beat say a whale who was playing,  we need to answer the question how did they do it.

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14 hours ago, Keith Smith said:

NOR is a acronym for three types of shoes, those that are neutral which means random and no bias, those that favor repeats and those that favor opposites.  

I truly believe that the fatal flaw that we all make from time to time is the believe that Opposite and Repeat shoes occur because there is an identifiable bias in a game when in fact you are really just seeing a random distribution of a shoe. When you say that you won the hand because the last hand was a two in a row and it tends to repeat know,  that you have a pretty good chance of guessing correctly. We then identify this game as a bias when in fact it was chance.  For us to identify it as a bias we must look to other factors and identify the cause. In many cases we have said,  as some of the quotes point to: Casino Manipulation.  The cause for it to be a true variation from random must have a scientific reason. Over many years we have used Casino Manipulation like the God Delusion where anything we think is a bias and win (or lose for that matter) we assign Casino Manipulation. At times we have failed  and have not analyze the circumstance honestly and offered or realized that it  could be luck, since we have looked no further, we assign it to  casino manipulation (Shuffle).  I strongly suggest you pick up and read the book Fooled by Randomness

Taleb argues that human beings are genetically hardwired to misattribute the results of human endeavors to skill and knowledge that are, in fact, just coincidental, random events.

We now are thinking in a different way to some extent, we are thinking SAP ( VIN SAP)  that in a random situation we usually see 1s,(18) 2s( 9),3s (4,5),4s (2.25)5s (1.25) 6s (less than 1). as a matter of fact within in an X sampling of hands , 99.7% of those events will occur enough randomly. What that means on a scatter chart chart you will see one 6 in a row 1 time every 72 hands give or take.   So I need to look at Stats for profits and calculate the mean length of runs,  and then 1,2 and 3 standard deviations and then tell you what will be the longest event you can expect to see in a game of baccarat with near certainty of where we have shoes from.  

When we have the mean,  we can assign a count to the mean,  and use it to know whether to bet repeat or opposite because the mean count will tell us what the game is saying and how far off we are from the other shoes in the casino . In other words the average run length is 2.75 banker or players long.   As an example perhaps we notice in the Commerce casino the bell curve is off.  The mean run length is 1.25 on Banker  and too many on player at  7 long on that side. The bell curve is warped and not within specs and we are missing the middle statistics of random chance.  And furthermore we can then now ask is that Casino Manipulation on purpose? Maybe, Maybe not,  but according to statistics we are seeing a variation due to some process flaw, which now if they do not discover and correct to bring the cards back to random you can exploit with certainty, now you can make a million dollars no kidding. That is what we need to find keep diggin....

 

My 2 cents.

K

WOW.   That was deep Keith.  

Kudos to you and this post.  

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And as always, dealers are humans, I have seen where a table caught a dealer cheating a couple different ways and I have seen where a dealer 'forgot' the correct 3rd card rule, etc., and I am sure that someone somewhere in a casino has played bacc shoes that have been shuffled by a shufflemaster, let's say 3 times, and know what sort of clumping that produces, etc.  I am interested in whether the preshuffled are being advertised or provided as being a certain thing or orderable as such, or whether casinos have figured out a way to manipulate a shulfflemaster shuffler.

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12 hours ago, pauld said:

CT - perhaps some definition differences, but I would love to hear what has convinced you that 2,3,4 can actually happen and how it is done-did a casino employee outline how they create a shoe to do exactly what they want it to do? I'm not offended by what you said, but I don't agree with you. I happen to know that #2,#3 and #4 are real and happen all the time.   

 

This is a great point of how it is done.  When I practiced Blackjack and observed the shuffle the thought that many of us had if the cards are random why did they change the shuffle what was the difference.  Why did they add little twists like stripping the cards or different procedures, number of times shuffled etc. Why were they so concerned with placing the cards in the discard tray in the order they were left on the table etc.  So i practiced the shuffle and the casino conditions, over the years dealt many games and shuffled new cards exactly like they did in the casino, I mimicked the card pick up procedure and low and behold I taught myself that if I followed this to a Tee and took small picks of cards and a tight close intertwine I could beat almost any strategy that someone was playing with a table full  of players.  I got so good at shuffling cards I could do a perfect faro shuffle. I would challenge people to let me shuffle the cards and you play and bet what ever you want and I will beat you.  So I think that this phenomenon is real in conjunction with the card pick up procedure and how most people play.  I would always deal in my practice games phantom players playing basic strategy. I set up games that whether you played count strategy or clump strategy the dealer was so strong you could not find a way to win, needless to say unless you bet 5k on one hand and got lucky. 

 

So what we should do now is practice Baccarat with real cards and conditions and see what happens with real cards.  There are hand shuffled Baccarat Games and they start with BOX ordered cards do a wash, the same shuffle that the casino does and see if there is anything out of the ordinary. That would be a good starting point.  To Paul's point it is one thing to say this happens quite another to reproduce how. Of course we have many games in Stats for profits with real cards and when run against some of the MDB+ rules some showed a significant advantage in certain casinos.  If the they did this on purpose to beat say a whale who was playing,  we need to answer the question how did they do it.

Hi Pauld,

I have circumstantial evidence of what I am talking about.

For example, in the casino that I play at most often, the cards are brought to the table in an eight deck clump and there is no further shuffling before the cards are dealt. In the event that the dealer accidentally discloses an extra card, like when the hands are P 10 + 6 and the B is 10 + 7, per the rules, no further cards are drawn. In this scenario, if the dealer draws an extra card, the game STOPS, the manger is called and the manager says "all bets are off", and instructs the dealer to play the entire next hand and discard all the cards for that hand. Now, you have to ask yourself "why not just burn that one card that was disclosed?...why must the entire hand be played out ?" The answer is because generally people are trend bettors. They follow trends. The casino knows that well. Preshuffled cards are intentionally organized so that the trends are so short that you would hardly get a bet off and lose the next. I they just discarded the one card it would disrupt the order and the game may become easier to beat. 

When we say designer shoes, we do not literally mean that each shoe is personally designed by a human. There are millions of combinations so that is not possible. The shoes are "designed" by a computer program which uses a specific or set of specific algorithms. 

Ties - it is not a coincidence that ties in preshuffled shoes occur in exactly the locations where to  give the player the most doubt. 

in EZ Baccarat where they have dragon and panda bets, you will notice that 60% of the time, dragons occur when you would be expecting a player outcome (like in a perfect OT scenario, and pandas occur when you would expect a banker outcome. This is because, usually when the players are betting banker they put the bonus on the dragon. It is in the casinos best interest to pay on a dragon when the expected outcome is a player, so that the casino won't have to pay out as much. Think about what I just said from the casinos point of view and you should have an Ahh-ha moment.

There are many other instances I can point out of why I am sure all these things happen but I don't think I have the patience to type it all out.

As for myself, as this point, I (and I speak for a lot of other players on this forum) don't care how the casino orchestrates the cards as we have learned how to win consistently. That's all that matters.

The fact remains that the casinos cheat and make a lot of money doing it. Shame on them. The average player is oblivious as to what is really going on with the shuffles, which is fine. As long as they keep losing by leaps and bounds, we can keep on winning.....

CT70

 

 

 

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My first impressions too

But if you think of the concept of artificial intelligence (maybe what this guy Dean needs) its a computer trying to copy a human brain

Maybe artificial randomness is a computer trying copy a human shuffle

Now we just need to define random ?

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5 hours ago, way2fast said:

I see that quote comes from Dean over at CFC.  So given the source, who the fuck knows what it means?  Guy is a complete babbling idiot.

I just spat coffee all over my keyboard...LMFAO

 

Memo to self: Send Invoice to way2fast for new Laptop

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3 hours ago, brad01 said:

My first impressions too

But if you think of the concept of artificial intelligence (maybe what this guy Dean needs) its a computer trying to copy a human brain

Maybe artificial randomness is a computer trying copy a human shuffle

Now we just need to define random ?

 
 

Dean would have confused the living shit out of the famous German neurologist Hans Berger... His first subject with no detectable Alpha Brain activity...I can picture the scene..."Martha...Martha...My EEG isn't working...did you unplug me to do the vacuuming again?

Edited by ECD
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2 hours ago, ozscouser1 said:

I just spat coffee all over my keyboard...LMFAO

 

Memo to self: Send Invoice to way2fast for new Laptop

It's about time you replaced that 1995 laptop.  I would send you a new one, but I'm worried about a repeat with your coffee or alcohol, or both ☕️ 

Edited by ECD
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