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test sampels and reversal or back to back question


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This is a question to some one with much experience playing baccarat. When you read about a method, do you use that particular recommendation for win targets and loss limits or do you come to your own conclusions? I assume you come to you own conclusion as the authors recommendation not might be your comfort zone playing. Now one known author and player - John Patrick - is famous for hes statment that 70% of the punters who entering a casino is at some point ahead during there play, but still 90% of the punters go home as losers. I think this is the truth and made me thinking about what it means to be ahead, if we don't know or can define what it means to be ahead then we don't know when to quit playing - be a winner!

Assumption is that if i take 10 samples with 100 placed bets each flat betting, then one or two sampels might go down the hell path with no winning at all, but the other eight sampels show a profit. Maybe the average peak for all eight sampels is 2 units - the result the all eight sampels has as common peak. Then i can assume and say that when i am ahead is when i reach +2 units and should quit. That could be one way to determine a win target. Do you agree or have another opinion?

Now there is one more thing i notice when i experiment testing different methods, reversals and back to back results. For example during a 100 placed bet sampel you might get +1 and then after some more placed bets -4 and then again +3 and after some more placed bets - 2 and then again a +0 result. This is pretty common and you can get several reversal or back to back results during a 100 placed bet sample using flat betting. What does that mean, well if i don't reach my goal at the first time i know that my expectation might be three more reversals or back to back results for the next 70 placed bets.

This with reversal and back to back results puts the loss limit into perspective, when to stopp and when to continue or push for more or getting a next chans. My assumption is that we can define loss limit in the same way as we decide when we are ahead.

 

Cheers

 

Edited by Sputnik
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kachatz1

Sputty- 

I call it "hitting your head on the ceiling"

You are +4 units, then down to +2, then up to + 4 again, then down to -1, then up to +4 again...

" Houston, we have a problem"

          - ( old movie about space exploration and rocket-ships, just saying...)

3rd time is the charm...time to go/ exit the shoe...once you hit that +4 for the third time, I call that:

HITTING YOR HEAD ON THE CEILING ( for that shoe)

Just IMO, but have been there a whole bunch of times...

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IMO it depends also from the expected reward from your method.

IE: my shoe bankroll is 4 units, I play till +2 or -4. IMO +2 is a nice reward for my investment 

bur if your play is more aggressive and/or LAG, and needs a bankroll of 20/30 units, your expectations must be higher

soo everything depends from how money you put in play and from the winnings (or losses) expected on avg

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bacclover

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Two of the many traps that the casino sets for it's prey is 1. time and 2. money.  Most of the brick and mortar casinos are open 24/7.  The "Gamblers" may hit them hard but the casino knows that all they have to do is wait the gambler out because the gambler lacks the self discipline to leave on a high note.  How many times have you seen the guy that can't miss and has won a fortune and then 45 minutes later he is at the ATM machine withdrawing money.  The casino has way more money and they know it is just a matter of time before the money comes back into the hands of the casino.

The "Player" is vastly different from the gambler.  In my mind, I have reversed the roles.  I am the hunter and the casino is the prey.  I try to use my knowledge and skill that took me years to develop to get in and get out trying my best to avoid those land mines that the casino set out for you.  Sometimes the hunter doesn't get his meal and the prey wins that day.  It is the player that can admit defeat (That day) and leave the casino licking his wounds, not going back for more punishment.   

A wise man said to me that the casino is the enemy.  They prey on the weak and will take you for your entire living if you let them.  They will do so without one shred of guilt.  You need to change your mindset from prey to hunter.     

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7 hours ago, McVince said:

They prey on the weak and will take you for your entire living if you let them.  They will do so without one shred of guilt.  You need to change your mindset from prey to hunter.     

Yes, I like that and agree!

CT70

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I think every shoe or session has a potential

All based on many different factors:

Time, stress, bankroll, strategy, trend of the shoe, your own personal weaknesses playing the shoe that is being dealt - to name a few

Maybe the potential is high, maybe it is low, or maybe it is negative

But you have to be able to realise that potential and quit at the right time

Maybe that means hitting your stop loss and admitting defeat as McVince says

Maybe it is increasing your units to peak your winning streak and then quitting after 1 loss, 2 losses, or x amount of losses form your high point

Or maybe as kachatz says it is realising that you are hitting your head on the ceiling and no matter what you do you are not going to get above +4 and if you continue to push it you are only going to end up bouncing into the negative
(also experienced this many times)

So I think to realise the potential of the shoe or session you are playing is important but how can you know this without experience?

How can you know that playing beyond -5 in a shoe will cause you more harm than good in most cases?

Unfortunately you have to have experienced the losses to be able to identify how to avoid them!

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Here is my wL ratio for live play today all flat betting

LLwwLLwwwLwLwLLLLLwLLwLLwLwwwwwwLwwwwwwwwL

24 W

18 L

+6

note wins and losses come in mostly bunches of 1's and 2's

3 losses is a sign to maybe wait for a paper win before resuming for real

3 wins in a row could be a sign to increase bets

Had I have implemented that I would have:

reduced my losing units by 1 unit

increased my winning units by 5 assuming I switched to 2 unit bets after 3 wins iar and switched back to 1 unit after a loss

All simple stuff none involving negative progressions

Why did I not do it while at the tables? 

Easier said than done

 

 

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kachatz1
4 hours ago, brad01 said:

Here is my wL ratio for live play today all flat betting

LLwwLLwwwLwLwLLLLLwLLwLLwLwwwwwwLwwwwwwwwL

24 W

18 L

+6

note wins and losses come in mostly bunches of 1's and 2's

3 losses is a sign to maybe wait for a paper win before resuming for real

3 wins in a row could be a sign to increase bets

Had I have implemented that I would have:

reduced my losing units by 1 unit

increased my winning units by 5 assuming I switched to 2 unit bets after 3 wins iar and switched back to 1 unit after a loss

All simple stuff none involving negative progressions

Why did I not do it while at the tables? 

Easier said than done

 

 

"To a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail."

 ---- ( Memorable line from some movie I saw one time...)

Yet another Baccarat truism??

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On 25.2.2017 at 5:41 AM, wolfat said:

IMO it depends also from the expected reward from your method.

IE: my shoe bankroll is 4 units, I play till +2 or -4. IMO +2 is a nice reward for my investment 

bur if your play is more aggressive and/or LAG, and needs a bankroll of 20/30 units, your expectations must be higher

soo everything depends from how money you put in play and from the winnings (or losses) expected on avg

Are you playing Nor then? It is great in and out for +2 units.

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14 hours ago, Fedda said:

Are you playing Nor then? It is great in and out for +2 units.

no I play Vinsap

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bacclover

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Another thing about WL tracking is the patterns that appear to form

I became aware to take notice of this from wolfat when I was looking at hit rates

As I said above wins and losses generally seem to come in 2's and 3's and occasionally in 3 or mores

When the 3 or mores happen then its a trigger to either paper bet during losing or to increase your bets while winning

BUT

what about the other times:

 

LLwwLLwwwLwLwLLLLLwLLwLLwLwwwwwwLwwwwwwwwL

24 W

18 L

+6

 

I currently play a version of 5D after trying many strategies from this forum and I have worked pretty hard to get my hit rate to ideally 65 % or more

In this case its sitting at 57% which isn't too bad

I discussed the LLLLL and WWWWWWW situations but look at the other patterns

In order form left to right:

LLWWLLWW

wLwLwL

LLwLLwLLwL

 

There is not a lot of opportunity but there is some to maybe either save 1 loss and / or gain 1 extra unit for each of the above pattersn by indentifying them and either holding back a bet or betting an extra unit

Lets assume one made or saved 1 unit form each pattern

That's 1 unit saved from LLLLLLLL situation (paper bets)

5 units gained from WWWWWWW situation (betting 2 units)

and 3 units saved from the above patterns

 

That's huge

 

 

 

 

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Brad01 i think going into virtual mode is great as we can skip many loses that way. You can do easy math if you want to know the variance behind you loses and you can get some expectation - take 4 loses and 1 win and 4 loses and 1 win and 4 loses - that is 12 loses and 2 wins and the same as 2.5 SD. So you can give the loses the value of 1 and the winnings the value of 1 and do easy match or look at my chart - this is 12 loses and 2 wins in any combination and 2.5 SD is pretty rare but happens. 14 contra 2 is 3.0 SD and very rare but it happens. So you can measuring the variance for loses and winning and see the strength behind them. 3 loses and 1 win and 3 loses and 1 win and 3 loses is 2.11. So you can measuring variance and fluctation with loses contra winning or the other way around and see how strong your winning approch is using winnings contra loses.

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