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MvD...Does it work?


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1 hour ago, ozscouser1 said:

No worries Pando...I'll make a point of listing everything that I'm looking at for each hand. It looks daunting at first but not so hard once you grasp a few ideas.

That's great, thank you

Pando

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10 hours ago, ozscouser1 said:

I win most days, but I don't win every day...because no-one can win every shoe. My STOP/LOSS is  -3 units and in the unlikely event that I hit two consecutive losing shoes first up, I quit the Casino for the day. That gives me a max loss of -6/day which I may hit once a month on average. There is no sound mathematical reason for this habit but it has psychological benefits. My average WIN per shoe is in double figures with just Flat Betting and having the comforting knowledge that my worst day will only take me half a shoe to recover is a real boost.

It takes DISCIPLINE to quit when you are ahead...

It takes DISCIPLINE to observe your S/L and not chase losses when behind...

It takes even more DISCIPLINE after a minor loss to walk away from the Casino and live to fight another day. 

Without DISCIPLINE, you won't win long term at Baccarat and you would be better off finding something else to do nights.

 

Great post OZ.  I am sure you are in agreement, but discipline is almost as/if not more important than skill. 

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BigChips

Maybe I am losing hope  or the casinos got smarter.  I don't know.   I have been playing this game for a very long time now, since the 1990's.  I have played every system Ellis has sold.  Even 4D.  Even MDB+.    You name it.  Every system   From 90s  up to his current mvd  and anti mvd    And even his newest  anb (advanced net betting)    And his most recent,  a week old,  S3 net betting.  They do work in the right shoes but,  not always the entire shoe.  Sometimes you play from begining of a shoe do well  sometimes not   Sometimes you enter at play 10, 20 or mid shoe do well,  sometimes you don't.  Sometimes triggers of any system work and sometimes they don't.   Sometimes delays on triggers work, sometimes they don't.   Sometimes various progs work, sometimes not.  Sometimes flat bets work, sometimes not.  Sometimes sap works, sometimes not.  Rsap  same thing.   So, I think I have opened and tried every door.  No more doors left to open.   Even betting certain strong signal/trigger bets work and sometimes not.  Sometimes follow shoe works, someetimes not.  Yes,  I have had many winning shoes and great days but,  at the end of each year I am NEVER ahead.  And I do use very strict discipline  and leave a table right away when I hit my stop loss.    Have tried many different stop losses, -3, -5, -6, -10.,etc     In the end,  each year, never ahead  and I have played MANY shoes and so many different casinos,  playing  weekly  many shoes weekly.   So, you can say zuma has been done over many times.   Even zuma testing,  same thing, in the end,  down not up even with very strict discipline and tight stop losses.  Online casinos same thing,   After so long in the end.....    hand shuffled or machine.   Pre-shuffled or not.  6 deck or 8 deck.  Same.     Help!   I need somebody. Help!  Not just anybody. H-E-L-P!!!!!!!!   To me there are no more solutions.  I don't want to give up  because I have invested so many years into this  and walking away after all those years would be such a waste.  Thank you everyone for listening.   Hopefully someone here knows something I don't  and maybe I can still turn this around and finally start  punishing these casino bastards back.

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Hi Big Chips,

I have a few words of advice for you.

1) Don't spend any money on any more systems - you already have enough of those and you already know there is no HG

(note - this forum is no longer a system selling site but a players forum or 'club' if you like where we just discuss what strategies work and is a monthly fee not a lump sum outlay to buy winning systems)

2) Don't try too hard to find winning bets - let them come to you. If you try too hard to find bets then you start creating patterns and biases in your mind that aren't really there and placing bets that you shouldn't make. Know your winning shoe types and triggers and learn to sit back and wait patiently until those situations present. If it means your shoe average is only 2 - 3 units then so be it

I daresay Oz didn't average double figures when he started playing full time. I think at one point he said his average was only 2 - 3 units per shoe and pretty sure it was a lot of hard work and practise to get that average where it is now.

My average is 3 - 5 units at the moment depending on the entry point. If I enter towards the end of a shoe I'm happy to exit with just 1 unit profit. If I start form the start and I hit a decent total and it starts falling then I will quit with a win rather than keep playing and risk losing what I already have.

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1 minute ago, brad01 said:

Hi Big Chips,

I have a few words of advice for you.

1) Don't spend any money on any more systems - you already have enough of those and you already know there is no HG

(note - this forum is no longer a system selling site but a players forum or 'club' if you like where we just discuss what strategies work and is a monthly fee not a lump sum outlay to buy winning systems)

2) Don't try too hard to find winning bets - let them come to you. If you try too hard to find bets then you start creating patterns and biases in your mind that aren't really there and placing bets that you shouldn't make. Know your winning shoe types and triggers and learn to sit back and wait patiently until those situations present. If it means your shoe average is only 2 - 3 units then so be it

I daresay Oz didn't average double figures when he started playing full time. I think at one point he said his average was only 2 - 3 units per shoe and pretty sure it was a lot of hard work and practise to get that average where it is now.

My average is 3 - 5 units at the moment depending on the entry point. If I enter towards the end of a shoe I'm happy to exit with just 1 unit profit. If I start form the start and I hit a decent total and it starts falling then I will quit with a win rather than keep playing and risk losing what I already have.

That's great advice Brad!

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Thanks CT it means a lot

Now that I can win consistently and more importantly not lose consistently its a matter of time till my BR / unit size increases to the point where I can do this full time.

I cant wait but trying to stay calm. Its real hard when you are trying to balance this with other work commitments as it does require a lot of time but until that time generates you money you have to keep doing what you are doing. Its a real hard one.

Then I'm gonna cruise around and visit all BTC members around the world

Pando in NZ

Oz in Sydney

Zeckam in Singapore

William Looi in Malaysia

Lou in UK

and many others

and of course many guys in the US including yourself

I can totally get what BigChips is saying as sure everyone has been at the point they wonder is this really possible?

Push past the point and you will find out it absolutely is

For sure I would say the answer is no magical method or system but hard work and being able to talk and converse with members and players who have been through this and made it

That place was and is this forum

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On 3/19/2017 at 6:02 PM, way2fast said:

Your description and review of MvD is spot on.  Casinos are scared and mess with the game when they see Ellis coming?  Hilarious.  Maybe some newbies fall for the BS, but anyone who has been in a casino can see right through the "stories."

Carlos (the tester)  contacted several of us at BTC.  I have quite an exchange of PM's with him where he was bashing Ellis and Dean, while trying to get me to send him details on exactly how I was playing as well as specific details on VinSap.  Then he discovered he could sign up for one month and download everything.  After he did that he wouldn't even pay for his one month.  Total scumbag -- I put him in the same bucket as Dean.  Fortunately he is CFC's problem.

Carlos is a scumbag who ripped me for a few thousand

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55 minutes ago, CT70 said:

Hey Brad, I didn't see my name. Aren't you going to visit me?...lol

CT70

Of course mate but too many names to list in USA !

McVince, way2fast, trbfla, trillion, douglas, kachatz, Keith, Mike......

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1 hour ago, brad01 said:

 as it does require a lot of time but until that time generates you money you have to keep doing what you are doing. Its a real hard one.

Yes Brad. Holding a full time job and keeping up with playing regularly is exhausting.

Every real shoe played in a casino should be replayed again in your home environment. Usually the replay should end in a higher score. Shoes ending in a low score should be analyzed to see what if anything you could have done better. This is a great learning excercise. It's amazing what you notice you have overlooked when you replay the shoe. The replays and analysis take up a lot of time but it's critical to do and definitely worth lt.

CT70

 

 

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Thanks CT just starting to realise that this is the key to 'just winning' and becoming a high level player. 

One of the things I learned form your posts

Also Oz's work ethic with this is second to none hence the results he gets

Also the Stats For Profit is a good way to get one into the habit of homework after playing by at least entering the shoes into the program

 

 

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2 hours ago, RonO said:

Carlos is a scumbag who ripped me for a few thousand

Sorry to hear that RonO

As hard as it may be let it go

Focus on yourself moving forward

Surround yourself with good people, stay away from the bad.

I can honestly say I have only talked to good people on this forum

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15 minutes ago, brad01 said:

Thanks CT just starting to realise that this is the key to 'just winning' and becoming a high level player. 

One of the things I learned form your posts

Also Oz's work ethic with this is second to none hence the results he gets

Also the Stats For Profit is a good way to get one into the habit of homework after playing by at least entering the shoes into the program

 

 

A great feature of StatsforProfits is that a shoe can be re-played hand by hand

So rather than seeing the whole shoe, you can retrieve each hand as you would do in a casino

I find that very beneficial to practice as you and CT70 suggest.

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wolfat

BigChips,

Brad gave you advices you should put on stone...

I want to add something "practical" that could help you.

I guess, in the past, you jumped from a "winning" system to the next one and couldn't find the right one.

you know why? because it DOES NOT EXIST.

what you must do is this: as I think you have a ton of "good systems" to play, choose that one fits more your betting style, I mean, are you a conservative player? do you like more action? etc 

choose that one fitting more your style.

put yourself on a kitchen table and play MANUALLY at least hundred shoes.

analyze them after playing. check if you played well, what's went right or wrong, try to outline weaknesses and strengths.

after all this work I ASSURE YOU you will be a better player, you will be able to get in a good shoe and out from a bad one, EARLY, without depleting your bankroll.

Nothing can substitute MANUAL PRACTCE!

More, in general, read everything you can about bac to get new ideas for improvements BUT don't deviate from your path!

don't be afraid to share your ideas with good people here, you will receive more than you give.

I suggest you subscribing our premium membership and read my booklet about baccarat mindset, everyone read it appreciated it a lot!

NEVER GIVE UP!

A

bacclover

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45 minutes ago, wolfat said:

BigChips,

Brad gave you advices you should put on stone...

I want to add something "practical" that could help you.

I guess, in the past, you jumped from a "winning" system to the next one and couldn't find the right one.

you know why? because it DOES NOT EXIST.

what you must do is this: as I think you have a ton of "good systems" to play, choose that one fits more your betting style, I mean, are you a conservative player? do you like more action? etc 

choose that one fitting more your style.

put yourself on a kitchen table and play MANUALLY at least hundred shoes.

analyze them after playing. check if you played well, what's went right or wrong, try to outline weaknesses and strengths.

after all this work I ASSURE YOU you will be a better player, you will be able to get in a good shoe and out from a bad one, EARLY, without depleting your bankroll.

Nothing can substitute MANUAL PRACTCE!

More, in general, read everything you can about bac to get new ideas for improvements BUT don't deviate from your path!

don't be afraid to share your ideas with good people here, you will receive more than you give.

I suggest you subscribing our premium membership and read my booklet about baccarat mindset, everyone read it appreciated it a lot!

NEVER GIVE UP!

A

 

Well said mate...Norm (RIP) took me in hand early in the piece when he saw me straying... He warned me about jumping from system to system and joining the throng of Ellis Groupies that swarm like bees around a honeypot jumping from one system to another in a never-ending search for the Holy Grail of Baccarat. He emphasised "Ellis designs and sells Systems...that's what he does...that's his business". Norm offered to teach me everything to do with his "Follow the Shoe" method but advised me to stick with what I was doing and concentrate on refining and improving what I was already doing. 

If you have something that is working for you, then don't go leaping all over the place looking for that HG...it isn't there. Work hard at what you already know and add tweaks as you go. 

Ellis's "Groupies" will continue searching and will continue to fall by the wayside because it ain't that easy. Think always of the three "D's'...It takes dedication...determination and the most important of all...DISCIPLINE to beat the Casino and if it was easy...there would be no casinos.

Also...it goes without saying...it also takes a helluva lot of DAMN hard work. For every hour I spend in the Casino, I spend at least two hours researching. That's what it takes.

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Here's a comment my wife said the other day " Look kids notice anything different about dinner tonight? What mum? Your dads here!" Sad isn't it ... Thats how much time I have been spending locked away in my office studying!!! I must remember I have a family too.

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wolfat

Big Chip,

one more thing, when you get some experience with your method, and get confident with it,

remember to work on it, looking for improvements, refine and refine your play... it's a never ending job but you will get the inner satisfaction to be a winner at this game! not too much people on earth can do that!

IE, I'm playing VinSap working with a team of other 4 people. NOBODY play vinsap the same way... but we all score similarly!

get the point? you need to find your way, customizing what method fitting better your style and never stop working on it.

by the end, every time  it's always a 50% decision!

lol

A

bacclover

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On ‎2017‎-‎03‎-‎30 at 6:11 PM, BigChips said:

Maybe I am losing hope  or the casinos got smarter.  I don't know.   I have been playing this game for a very long time now, since the 1990's.  I have played every system Ellis has sold.  Even 4D.  Even MDB+.    You name it.  Every system   From 90s  up to his current mvd  and anti mvd    And even his newest  anb (advanced net betting)    And his most recent,  a week old,  S3 net betting.  They do work in the right shoes but,  not always the entire shoe.  Sometimes you play from begining of a shoe do well  sometimes not   Sometimes you enter at play 10, 20 or mid shoe do well,  sometimes you don't.  Sometimes triggers of any system work and sometimes they don't.   Sometimes delays on triggers work, sometimes they don't.   Sometimes various progs work, sometimes not.  Sometimes flat bets work, sometimes not.  Sometimes sap works, sometimes not.  Rsap  same thing.   So, I think I have opened and tried every door.  No more doors left to open.   Even betting certain strong signal/trigger bets work and sometimes not.  Sometimes follow shoe works, someetimes not.  Yes,  I have had many winning shoes and great days but,  at the end of each year I am NEVER ahead.  And I do use very strict discipline  and leave a table right away when I hit my stop loss.    Have tried many different stop losses, -3, -5, -6, -10.,etc     In the end,  each year, never ahead  and I have played MANY shoes and so many different casinos,  playing  weekly  many shoes weekly.   So, you can say zuma has been done over many times.   Even zuma testing,  same thing, in the end,  down not up even with very strict discipline and tight stop losses.  Online casinos same thing,   After so long in the end.....    hand shuffled or machine.   Pre-shuffled or not.  6 deck or 8 deck.  Same.     Help!   I need somebody. Help!  Not just anybody. H-E-L-P!!!!!!!!   To me there are no more solutions.  I don't want to give up  because I have invested so many years into this  and walking away after all those years would be such a waste.  Thank you everyone for listening.   Hopefully someone here knows something I don't  and maybe I can still turn this around and finally start  punishing these casino bastards back.

BigChips i understand where you coming from and i believe that is very common situation. I read different topics from three different professional players that live the life as gamblers. What i learn is that there is not one and same solution for all three, they have different style of tackle the game. So don't swallowing everything you read and keep in mind that you need to solve things into your own comfort zone.

Cheers

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On 3/30/2017 at 11:11 AM, BigChips said:

Maybe I am losing hope  or the casinos got smarter.  I don't know.   I have been playing this game for a very long time now, since the 1990's.  I have played every system Ellis has sold.  Even 4D.  Even MDB+.    You name it.  Every system   From 90s  up to his current mvd  and anti mvd    And even his newest  anb (advanced net betting)    And his most recent,  a week old,  S3 net betting.  They do work in the right shoes but,  not always the entire shoe.  Sometimes you play from begining of a shoe do well  sometimes not   Sometimes you enter at play 10, 20 or mid shoe do well,  sometimes you don't.  Sometimes triggers of any system work and sometimes they don't.   Sometimes delays on triggers work, sometimes they don't.   Sometimes various progs work, sometimes not.  Sometimes flat bets work, sometimes not.  Sometimes sap works, sometimes not.  Rsap  same thing.   So, I think I have opened and tried every door.  No more doors left to open.   Even betting certain strong signal/trigger bets work and sometimes not.  Sometimes follow shoe works, someetimes not.  Yes,  I have had many winning shoes and great days but,  at the end of each year I am NEVER ahead.  And I do use very strict discipline  and leave a table right away when I hit my stop loss.    Have tried many different stop losses, -3, -5, -6, -10.,etc     In the end,  each year, never ahead  and I have played MANY shoes and so many different casinos,  playing  weekly  many shoes weekly.   So, you can say zuma has been done over many times.   Even zuma testing,  same thing, in the end,  down not up even with very strict discipline and tight stop losses.  Online casinos same thing,   After so long in the end.....    hand shuffled or machine.   Pre-shuffled or not.  6 deck or 8 deck.  Same.     Help!   I need somebody. Help!  Not just anybody. H-E-L-P!!!!!!!!   To me there are no more solutions.  I don't want to give up  because I have invested so many years into this  and walking away after all those years would be such a waste.  Thank you everyone for listening.   Hopefully someone here knows something I don't  and maybe I can still turn this around and finally start  punishing these casino bastards back.

Hi Bigchips,

I saw no mention of stop wins in this post. I hope you are using realistic stop wins and getting out while you are ahead most of the time. As far as I know, it is very difficult to play complete shoes with any system.

For example, in NOR, Ellis recommends a stop loss of -8 and a stop win of +10 (proceed beyond 10 carefully.and quit if you go below 10). I think that he recognizes that there are "sweet spots" in most  shoes for most systems and when they end. It is best to just leave and keep your profits. 

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7 minutes ago, Wendel said:

Hi Bigchips,

I saw no mention of stop wins in this post. I hope you are using realistic stop wins and getting out while you are ahead most of the time. As far as I know, it is very difficult to play complete shoes with any system.

For example, in NOR, Ellis recommends a stop loss of -8 and a stop win of +10 (proceed beyond 10 carefully.and quit if you go below 10). I think that he recognizes that there are "sweet spots" in most  shoes for most systems and when they end. It is best to just leave and keep your profits. 

The problem with a stop loss of -8 and a stop win at +10 is that you are swinging for the fences when a base hit up the middle would work (Pardon the baseball lingo).  It is good that you realize that you can't play complete shoes with any one system, so why do it.  If you know that the pulse of the shoe is changing, you are going to blow your winnings, or pile on the losing trying to figure out which method of play would best fit the shoe so why do it?  The more you realize that this game is played best when you get your +2, +3 and get out, and with a more realistic stop loss of -4 or -5 your could make that up in no time.  For me, it is more palatable to walk away with a lower stop loss. In my mind, a -10 is insurmountable.  Another problem is trying to get to +10.  If you are in a shoe where nothing is working for you and you have +10 on the brain there is a good chance you could lose your whole bankroll getting to +10 when you were hovering around +4 or 5 the entire shoe.  If you want to use one of Ellis' teaching use this one when he introduced MDB, "If you want to win big, you bet big with a smaller, more realistic win goal".   Go to SFP and play the Parx shoe that I put in.  Try to get to +10 in that shoe, then see how many times you can get to +1, +2 or +3. 

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4 minutes ago, McVince said:

The problem with a stop loss of -8 and a stop win at +10 is that you are swinging for the fences when a base hit up the middle would work (Pardon the baseball lingo).  It is good that you realize that you can't play complete shoes with any one system, so why do it.  If you know that the pulse of the shoe is changing, you are going to blow your winnings, or pile on the losing trying to figure out which method of play would best fit the shoe so why do it?  The more you realize that this game is played best when you get your +2, +3 and get out, and with a more realistic stop loss of -4 or -5 your could make that up in no time.  For me, it is more palatable to walk away with a lower stop loss. In my mind, a -10 is insurmountable.  Another problem is trying to get to +10.  If you are in a shoe where nothing is working for you and you have +10 on the brain there is a good chance you could lose your whole bankroll getting to +10 when you were hovering around +4 or 5 the entire shoe.  If you want to use one of Ellis' teaching use this one when he introduced MDB, "If you want to win big, you bet big with a smaller, more realistic win goal".   Go to SFP and play the Parx shoe that I put in.  Try to get to +10 in that shoe, then see how many times you can get to +1, +2 or +3. 

Hi McVince,

 You said it far better than I. I was really trying to get stop wins into the discussion, and the nor example was the first thing that came to mind.

Your treatment of the topic was great and probably well suited to Bigchips.

Thank you.

 

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BigChips

Thanks guys.   That was great!  I found the best max stop loss to be -3 or -4.    Stop wins?   I now start out flat betting st first,  after  choosing  the best,  most obvious tote board.    While flat betting  I mentally play prog, just incase  flat betting  can't get ahead like win, lose, win, lose.    A 1-2 prog wins.    So I only use progs if I have to.    When I am up 5 units,  flat betting I keep going but  at +5 units  if I lose the next bet,   I am back to +4   Quit that shoe and onto another table.   Sometimes I can get to +10 or +20 units.   Most times I end up quitting the shoe with an average of a 4-7 unit win    Selecting only the best tables   By the tote board   And mostly flat betting.    If  I have to use progs  and I am up 5 or 6 units,  I still quit with atleast 2 units win.   At +12 units   I do not leave table below 6 units win.  But,   I use  mostly flat betting  and only progs if I have to.    I don't use progs for exploit trying to win 30 units     I use it only if flat betting can't get ahead    Like W L W L     Or   L L W    First pattern   A 1-2 prog I use    Secong pattern I use a 1-2-4   Or a 1-1-3    Or find a better table.   I am happy to say  I am now winning  and doing much better!  Thank you everyone for all your help   :)

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Hi big chips I am also flat better. Never use progression not even 1,2

dont worry about l w l w and slow grind

if u use 1,2 you immediately create deviation of possible 1,2 loss which is hard to recover from.

if l w l w  place less bets but focus to be more accurate.

just my opinion

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kachatz1
On April 1, 2017 at 10:49 AM, BigChips said:

Thanks guys.   That was great!  I found the best max stop loss to be -3 or -4.    Stop wins?   I now start out flat betting st first,  after  choosing  the best,  most obvious tote board.    While flat betting  I mentally play prog, just incase  flat betting  can't get ahead like win, lose, win, lose.    A 1-2 prog wins.    So I only use progs if I have to.    When I am up 5 units,  flat betting I keep going but  at +5 units  if I lose the next bet,   I am back to +4   Quit that shoe and onto another table.   Sometimes I can get to +10 or +20 units.   Most times I end up quitting the shoe with an average of a 4-7 unit win    Selecting only the best tables   By the tote board   And mostly flat betting.    If  I have to use progs  and I am up 5 or 6 units,  I still quit with atleast 2 units win.   At +12 units   I do not leave table below 6 units win.  But,   I use  mostly flat betting  and only progs if I have to.    I don't use progs for exploit trying to win 30 units     I use it only if flat betting can't get ahead    Like W L W L     Or   L L W    First pattern   A 1-2 prog I use    Secong pattern I use a 1-2-4   Or a 1-1-3    Or find a better table.   I am happy to say  I am now winning  and doing much better!  Thank you everyone for all your help   :)

Ha!

Take a look back at BiG CHIPS' first post from just a few days ago ( early in this thread)...

Read it several times.

Several days later, and now this!

YOWZAH...the powerful forces of BTC at work...

Keith...a perfect example of just what is possible when Smart Minds get together...would make a great introduction for newbies to the forum, or especially for those " thinking to join" but on the fence....

 

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