# Acceptable Variance?

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Hi guys,

When applying/testing a particular bet selection approach (not mechanical system), what do you consider to be an acceptable variance/drawdown over a range of shoes.

For example say an approach hit minus 40 units over 100 shoes. Is that too much?

What should the max be? I know the idea is to win more bets than lose but not sure of where I should set the drawdown line.

Thanks.

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• Baccarat Hall of Fame Member

Not sure there is any magical formula, but over 100 shoes?

-you should be AH.E.A.D. with an " accurate bet selection approach" with almost  7500 chances/100 shoes

Since we don't espouse betting every single hand, even you bet 1x/shoe, you should be ahead of the game...

( if not, better get another methodology to follow...)

or, in the alternative, maybe even better, is to use your experience as you go along to identify what it is about that " system" that a " workaround/fix it" could turn it into a winner...

this is why this forum so valuable...plenty of tools in the toolbox to keep you far away from the woodshed...

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• Baccarat Hall of Fame Member

allphar,

at first we have to define the word "variance".

For me that's the spread between losing and winning decisions, disregarding the amount bet.

The avg for a statistical spread like this is the square root of the total decisions played.

So, on avg. in 100 decisions played you should be +/- 10, to be on avg

IMPORTANT: I am speaking about decisions PLAYED, not only recorded.

If you are at +20, you are performing better than avg spread.

In 100 shoes, that are ar. 7000 decisions, if you bet ar. 50% of them (so 3500 decisions) your avg should be +/-59

...and so on.

I always keep record of my spread for many reasons but the most two important are:

a) I track how I am performing compared to the past

b ) I know, as I track my highs and lows, "more or less" if some winnings or losses are expected

A

bacclover

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Thanks Kevin and wolfat. Great information.

Learning, learning, learning.

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