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Negative Progressions and Negative Frame-of-Mind


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Negative Progressions and Negative Frame-of-Mind  
                                               
I am putting down my thoughts here based on reading the past couple of days.  I truly feel players going in a casino with the attitude/belief, “I can always get whatever I lose back by negative progression” is truly harmful.  Unless and only unless you are at a $10.00 min table and you are only wager the $10.00 or $20.00 and you have a reserved buy-in and you are ready, willing and 100% able with risking the sums of $5,100.00 and $10,200.00 respectively, to attempt 8 progressions to recoup your $10.00 or $20.00 lost. I say 8 attempts is what needs to be planned to prevail on a negative progression, not 6 or 7. 

But to me, that energy, that feeling, that risk is absurd!  And it will play on almost everyone’s mind, almost.  That buy-in bankroll can and should be used for other things and reserving it for positive events rather than the negativity and related effects losing has on most all players.  Those that believe in it and those that do it, I think the, ‘can’t retract’, or the ‘stick to your guns’ and those types of overpowering and controlling thoughts set in. 

While positive progressions are a very vital part of making profit while winning, any kind of negative progression to break even or obtain a small profit is extremely dangerous. 

So, personally I forget about the smaller losses of $100--$250--$500, etc., and concentrate on the winning progressions which will far and beyond, make-up for the losses I had, if I win.  If I lose I will also lose with the negative progression.    To me, no rocket science.  What am I missing?  How do I win with a negative progression and cannot win with a positive progression?? 

My analogy to this is a vehicle repair garage with numerous employees.  There is one guy, say in a group of 20 that is always inciting worker's rights and how to do everything his way, not the owner's way, etc.  Fire the guy, point blank get rid of him or put him on landscaping and washing vehicles until he quits.  I would take the firing route even with repercussions of penalties and taxed surcharges for firing some states have.  I would just eat it and be done with him.  Costs me more in others non confirmatory and loss profits, etc.  I would look to make it up on positive ways without the guy, not keeping him and dealing with negativity, losses and the such.  Kind of the same at gambling where you have to win so many to make up a loss and the frame of mind it gets most everyone into.  Moral=Take the loss, make it up later, don't shoot for the absolute immediate to become whole for the past negatives.

I say the above, not to dispel, discredit, insult or challenge of any of you in anyway.    

I say that from experience.  From my 35 + or so years of playing, progressions only reflect the 'outcome', 'good luck', 'bad luck', 'once in a lifetime win', 'worst game ever played', whatever each of us cares to label their results, etc., and progressions pertaining to positive or negative in fact.  Progressions bring you up a level of everything in wagering and gambling, it plays on your psych. And, I am saying that for the negative as well as the positive ones.     

Although the one place I play at in the Midwest, it has a current $10.00 to $2,000.00 tables.  Most places, do have $25.00 or $50.00 min’s and the majority of the numerous high limit rooms, especially in Vegas, New Jersey, Florida, Connecticut and California do have a $100.00 minimum up to $300 min’s.  The negative progression numbers would be exceeding the table limits on 6 and 7 place progressions pretty easily even with the lower table min’s.  And reality is, most all players do not bring $25k or $50k to the casino to wager $50 and $200 a time.  I do not care what the experts and gaming info writers recommend for 100 or 250 times your average wager for a buy-in or bank roll, sorry it is not reality.  Not here to discuss what your buy-in should be.  Most all players will not weather losing 30 or 50 wagers until they break even or profit 5 or 10 units, 100 to 200 wagers down the casino shoes played in a setting.  That is reality.

Someone wagering $250.00 would be on an $8,000.00 wager on his 6th wager with a buy-in of $15,750.00 at risk.  Someone with a $400.00 wager would be at a $12,800.00 wager on his 6th wager, with a $25,200.00 buy-in at risk if he lost the 6th one. Like I said not practicable and will only happen with an occasional player that will risk huge money to break even.  Might be good gossip and drama to talk about here, but in the casino it is extremely dangerous. 

Although everyone's financial picture is exclusive to themselves and not others, most of the experienced players will not engage in negative progressions much more than once or twice as a general non-written protocol.  This is because they have seen 7, 8, 9, 10, or 12 losing hands or something called the 'non-believable' from actually happening right then and there.  Happens all the time.  Not every time, a player normally wins numerous times before he actually experiences what I said, probably because his losses were overridden by wins or just his plain ignorance of the losing times.  When I said 'experience' it refers to time and years at the table, nothing to do with winning-losing-or even interpreting the game.

I said all that to bring the reader to a point.  And that point is, what negative progressions can and usually do to most players, not all, most.  Frame of mind is altered or effected.  And by that, I mean the following. 

Can you or anyone prevail with a dedicated 5 step. 6 step, 7 step Marty 'negative progression' to prevail for 1 unit or so?  Absolutely.  That is not the question.  The question is, how many will you lose before all the wins and money risked are long gone?  Some say something along the lines of, “If you lose 7 or 8 straight in a casino than what are you doing there”?  All players, even the winning most players will lose 7 or 9 or 12 straight at times.  And we cannot regulate when those times come along or how much we are playing with when those times set in, until it is too late.  Every one of us (I sure the hell hope so anyway) are saying positive and motivating things even if we are going down.  And if you were (and it happens—I seen it numerous times) going down say wagering $500 bets and then you started to lose with a negative progression before you can play it all out to the 5th or 6th spot, as you would be over the table max on the 7th and 8th hands, and they cut down to $100 or $200.  You just fall deeper in and get your frame-of-mind damaged and clouded even worse.  Then when you do win a couple, you are so far away from even, it is really sad. 

So let’s assume me and you are gambling at a casino.  We are wagering $20.00 and we lose, lose again and once more-lose.  Then we say let’s go negative progression to recoup that $60.00.  So I place $60.00 out there.  Then $120.00, then $240.00 then $480.00.  Sure hope I hit by the time I got on that 4th bet.  I had an additional $900.00 counting on the recovery of the $60.00 that I/We lost.  And, if that did not prevail, then we have to pony up $960.00 for the next wager to get back the neg progression attempt and the original $60.00 we were hell bent on getting back.  I will stop there at the 4th/5th attempt and not even go into the 6th/7th attempt possibilities.  If you don’t think they are real-possible or can happen to you---think again, I promise form the bottom of my heart it happens frequently.  But it is the nature of the players---when things like this happen, the player’s frame-of-mind is affected.  They somehow get hell-bent on the negative progression hope and convince themselves they will prevail.  Yes, they can and yes they do, but not every time.  And the down side to that is the possibility those winning time with neg progression instilled into your frame-of-mind.  It is not that hard to recoup a few hundred compared to a few thousand or a few thousand compared to a tens of thousands or a tens of thousands as compared to hundreds of thousands.   

No one here goes in to play one time and calls it quits.  They play year after year and will continue to do so. So I know the effects of neg progression and their effects are much greater negativity than most anything in live gaming.  A negative progression to me, is the same as a volume of combustible liquid with some escaping fumes, improperly contained inside a heated warehouse without ventilation and ignition sources sporadically present.

As far as 1 win and 7 losses.  I have repeatedly seen great players that usually prevail and have lifetime positive wins, lose in excess of 7 times consecutively.  If you have a casino that the average player cannot lose more than 5 or 6 consecutive times, I will sell everything I have and borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars and be there tomorrow, maybe the next day.  But I know that is impossible, does not exist and will never exist.

But, maybe I am totally wrong here and my way of thinking??? 
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You are not wrong...It doesn't matter what the hit rate is...how successful...eventually that long run of outs will destroy you

You have come to the right place with your thoughts on Negative Progressions. To my knowledge...every consistent long term winner on this Forum has been bitten badly by NP's and has moved to... firstly Flat Betting and then either the 1 2  Loop or the 2 3 Loop and increasing as the shoe dictates. The Loop is mainly used as a Positive Progression...at least early in the shoe.

A few BTC members have been running an anti NP vendetta for quite a while now and the WIN rate has increased exponentially as we moved away from mechanical systems in combination with NP's. (a recipe for disaster)

Those that come here looking for an easy way to win will be sorely disappointed...Baccarat is a thinking man's game and it takes much time and effort to become a consistent winner. 

Nice to hear what you have to say.

Edited by ECD
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5 hours ago, Alrelax said:

Negative Progressions and Negative Frame-of-Mind  
                                               
I am putting down my thoughts here based on reading the past couple of days.  I truly feel players going in a casino with the attitude/belief, “I can always get whatever I lose back by negative progression” is truly harmful.  Unless and only unless you are at a $10.00 min table and you are only wager the $10.00 or $20.00 and you have a reserved buy-in and you are ready, willing and 100% able with risking the sums of $5,100.00 and $10,200.00 respectively, to attempt 8 progressions to recoup your $10.00 or $20.00 lost. I say 8 attempts is what needs to be planned to prevail on a negative progression, not 6 or 7. 

But to me, that energy, that feeling, that risk is absurd!  And it will play on almost everyone’s mind, almost.  That buy-in bankroll can and should be used for other things and reserving it for positive events rather than the negativity and related effects losing has on most all players.  Those that believe in it and those that do it, I think the, ‘can’t retract’, or the ‘stick to your guns’ and those types of overpowering and controlling thoughts set in. 

While positive progressions are a very vital part of making profit while winning, any kind of negative progression to break even or obtain a small profit is extremely dangerous. 

So, personally I forget about the smaller losses of $100--$250--$500, etc., and concentrate on the winning progressions which will far and beyond, make-up for the losses I had, if I win.  If I lose I will also lose with the negative progression.    To me, no rocket science.  What am I missing?  How do I win with a negative progression and cannot win with a positive progression?? 

My analogy to this is a vehicle repair garage with numerous employees.  There is one guy, say in a group of 20 that is always inciting worker's rights and how to do everything his way, not the owner's way, etc.  Fire the guy, point blank get rid of him or put him on landscaping and washing vehicles until he quits.  I would take the firing route even with repercussions of penalties and taxed surcharges for firing some states have.  I would just eat it and be done with him.  Costs me more in others non confirmatory and loss profits, etc.  I would look to make it up on positive ways without the guy, not keeping him and dealing with negativity, losses and the such.  Kind of the same at gambling where you have to win so many to make up a loss and the frame of mind it gets most everyone into.  Moral=Take the loss, make it up later, don't shoot for the absolute immediate to become whole for the past negatives.

I say the above, not to dispel, discredit, insult or challenge of any of you in anyway.    

I say that from experience.  From my 35 + or so years of playing, progressions only reflect the 'outcome', 'good luck', 'bad luck', 'once in a lifetime win', 'worst game ever played', whatever each of us cares to label their results, etc., and progressions pertaining to positive or negative in fact.  Progressions bring you up a level of everything in wagering and gambling, it plays on your psych. And, I am saying that for the negative as well as the positive ones.     

Although the one place I play at in the Midwest, it has a current $10.00 to $2,000.00 tables.  Most places, do have $25.00 or $50.00 min’s and the majority of the numerous high limit rooms, especially in Vegas, New Jersey, Florida, Connecticut and California do have a $100.00 minimum up to $300 min’s.  The negative progression numbers would be exceeding the table limits on 6 and 7 place progressions pretty easily even with the lower table min’s.  And reality is, most all players do not bring $25k or $50k to the casino to wager $50 and $200 a time.  I do not care what the experts and gaming info writers recommend for 100 or 250 times your average wager for a buy-in or bank roll, sorry it is not reality.  Not here to discuss what your buy-in should be.  Most all players will not weather losing 30 or 50 wagers until they break even or profit 5 or 10 units, 100 to 200 wagers down the casino shoes played in a setting.  That is reality.

Someone wagering $250.00 would be on an $8,000.00 wager on his 6th wager with a buy-in of $15,750.00 at risk.  Someone with a $400.00 wager would be at a $12,800.00 wager on his 6th wager, with a $25,200.00 buy-in at risk if he lost the 6th one. Like I said not practicable and will only happen with an occasional player that will risk huge money to break even.  Might be good gossip and drama to talk about here, but in the casino it is extremely dangerous. 

Although everyone's financial picture is exclusive to themselves and not others, most of the experienced players will not engage in negative progressions much more than once or twice as a general non-written protocol.  This is because they have seen 7, 8, 9, 10, or 12 losing hands or something called the 'non-believable' from actually happening right then and there.  Happens all the time.  Not every time, a player normally wins numerous times before he actually experiences what I said, probably because his losses were overridden by wins or just his plain ignorance of the losing times.  When I said 'experience' it refers to time and years at the table, nothing to do with winning-losing-or even interpreting the game.

I said all that to bring the reader to a point.  And that point is, what negative progressions can and usually do to most players, not all, most.  Frame of mind is altered or effected.  And by that, I mean the following. 

Can you or anyone prevail with a dedicated 5 step. 6 step, 7 step Marty 'negative progression' to prevail for 1 unit or so?  Absolutely.  That is not the question.  The question is, how many will you lose before all the wins and money risked are long gone?  Some say something along the lines of, “If you lose 7 or 8 straight in a casino than what are you doing there”?  All players, even the winning most players will lose 7 or 9 or 12 straight at times.  And we cannot regulate when those times come along or how much we are playing with when those times set in, until it is too late.  Every one of us (I sure the hell hope so anyway) are saying positive and motivating things even if we are going down.  And if you were (and it happens—I seen it numerous times) going down say wagering $500 bets and then you started to lose with a negative progression before you can play it all out to the 5th or 6th spot, as you would be over the table max on the 7th and 8th hands, and they cut down to $100 or $200.  You just fall deeper in and get your frame-of-mind damaged and clouded even worse.  Then when you do win a couple, you are so far away from even, it is really sad. 

So let’s assume me and you are gambling at a casino.  We are wagering $20.00 and we lose, lose again and once more-lose.  Then we say let’s go negative progression to recoup that $60.00.  So I place $60.00 out there.  Then $120.00, then $240.00 then $480.00.  Sure hope I hit by the time I got on that 4th bet.  I had an additional $900.00 counting on the recovery of the $60.00 that I/We lost.  And, if that did not prevail, then we have to pony up $960.00 for the next wager to get back the neg progression attempt and the original $60.00 we were hell bent on getting back.  I will stop there at the 4th/5th attempt and not even go into the 6th/7th attempt possibilities.  If you don’t think they are real-possible or can happen to you---think again, I promise form the bottom of my heart it happens frequently.  But it is the nature of the players---when things like this happen, the player’s frame-of-mind is affected.  They somehow get hell-bent on the negative progression hope and convince themselves they will prevail.  Yes, they can and yes they do, but not every time.  And the down side to that is the possibility those winning time with neg progression instilled into your frame-of-mind.  It is not that hard to recoup a few hundred compared to a few thousand or a few thousand compared to a tens of thousands or a tens of thousands as compared to hundreds of thousands.   

No one here goes in to play one time and calls it quits.  They play year after year and will continue to do so. So I know the effects of neg progression and their effects are much greater negativity than most anything in live gaming.  A negative progression to me, is the same as a volume of combustible liquid with some escaping fumes, improperly contained inside a heated warehouse without ventilation and ignition sources sporadically present.

As far as 1 win and 7 losses.  I have repeatedly seen great players that usually prevail and have lifetime positive wins, lose in excess of 7 times consecutively.  If you have a casino that the average player cannot lose more than 5 or 6 consecutive times, I will sell everything I have and borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars and be there tomorrow, maybe the next day.  But I know that is impossible, does not exist and will never exist.

But, maybe I am totally wrong here and my way of thinking??? 

You say you are reading the forum for a few days.  Where in the forum does it say negative progressions are good?  All the rockstars in this forum either flat bet or up as you win. You are saying things that is already known.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Leaderships my thread here due to way2fast being involved with your board.  By the way his is his close friend starboard the Vegas casinos about 500,000 and those markers are basically worthless checks, ???l. Such a valued group of friends????  Lol. 

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Memo to Admin: I fully support Alrelax's request for this Thread to be deleted.

 

No loss really as I was about to post a remarkably similar Thread myself. Just one of them thar coincidences, I guess.:) 

As a service to the Private members of BTC...I may post my similar (cough...cough) thoughts to Alrelax in the Premium Forum in a single Thread...Beats the living shit out of "War and Peace" as a cure for insomnia.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Interesting approach Alrelax!  I haven't been back to your series of threads cause I already know your mode of operation.  But had to come take a look when a couple members PM'd me about the BS you have posted here.  I have seen the nonsense you post at Bet Selection, that hardly a member there cares about -- no wonder the activity at that site dwindled to almost nothing shortly after your self-serving, egotistical posts.  Kinda the same thing that happened after you got involved with two other vegas/gambling boards.  Starting to look like a trend.  It's a shame, really -- while no one takes issue with your experience, and you sometimes offer good nuggets of information, nobody is interested in wading through your BS and ego to get the good stuff.  Ego getting in the way is a bit of an issue with many on this board as we have experienced the negative side of "ego" here in the past.

I honestly don't know why you seem to have such a problem with me -- we have never met or spoken.  I guess it's because you always need someone to blame and ridicule -- probably makes you feel better about yourself.  It has been your M.O. for a long time, and is well recognized by those who have seen your numerous threatening and derogatory attacks on individuals on other boards.  I for one am delighted you have chosen to "leave" BTC because I don't read any of your shit -- stopped doing that a long tome ago.

I am curious about one thing though:

On ‎8‎/‎27‎/‎2017 at 3:11 PM, Alrelax said:

By the way his is his close friend starboard the Vegas casinos about 500,000 and those markers are basically worthless checks, ???l. Such a valued group of friends????  Lol. 

Who do you think I know who has stiffed casinos for 500,000 in markers?  There must be some great story behind it, or is it just another mad up story in your head?

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  • 3 weeks later...

I must say that after reading the strong and quite negative statements against the member that wanted his posts deleted, I went on the forum he writes extensively on and read most of his blog and other items.  I have to say that he explains in detail more than most others by far and makes more sense with actual ideas and experiences I actually can use,  

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  • Baccarat Hall of Fame Member

I read many posts of AR but I found them always with a good wording but poor in  contents.

I have learn nothing from his thousand words, apart generic MM that you can find in any book/forum.

but maybe it's me...

A

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bacclover

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8orbetter, be careful what you deem "negative" regarding what is being shared.  It can easily be misconstrued for the objective nature it is being communicated in.  The personal attack upon the integrity and character of way2fast, is nothing but a dishonest diversionary tactic to hide behind.   It is always best to be honest with ones self first.  Then and only then can you share honestly with another.  Honesty demands the entire truth, and not just a chosen part of it, to suite ones own selfish and misguided pursuits.  That which is honest, needs no justification as it stands on its own merit.  

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14 hours ago, 8orbetter said:

I must say that after reading the strong and quite negative statements against the member that wanted his posts deleted, I went on the forum he writes extensively on and read most of his blog and other items.  I have to say that he explains in detail more than most others by far and makes more sense with actual ideas and experiences I actually can use,  

 

You know, now that I reread this post, it sure sounds and flows exactly by a post by Glen. Yes, he often posts under multiple alias' supporting his view because no one else will.  It would be funny if it just wasn't so sad.  Tell us the truth, @8orbetter, you are actually Glen (@alrelax).   Clearly I was generous when I said there were 4 of you on betselection.  It might just be you.  And you.  Lol. 

Edited by ECD
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26 minutes ago, way2fast said:

 

You know, now that I reread this post, it sure sounds and flows exactly by a post by Glen. Yes, he often posts under multiple alias' supporting his view because no one else will.  It would be funny if it just wasn't so sad.  Tell us the truth, @8orbetter, you are actually Glen (@alrelax).   Clearly I was generous when I said there were 4 of you on betselection.  It might just be you.  And you.  Lol. 

WOW W2F! You know what?....... I was just thinking the same thing. 8orBetter sure sounds just like Glen to me. Especially considering that he can't come back to read the comments from his previous posts with his old ID because he's BANNED (as the Donald says YOU'RE FIRED!!!" from here. So he probably set up another alias with which to come back in and check if he got any attention (as we all know he is an attention whore). And is it just a coincidence (or as Oz says "my suspicious nature" ) that this "8orbetter" who's never posted a single word on this forum, is a newbie, comes on the forum and the first thing he does is bad mouth BTC. Like REALLY M.F. Err #$%^&*???!!  If YOU were a newbie, who just joined a forum to learn the game, would you be bad mouthing the very site that you are hoping will help you learn the game? I don't think so. Sounds very fishy to me.

 

 

 

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15 hours ago, 8orbetter said:

I must say that after reading the strong and quite negative statements against the member that wanted his posts deleted, I went on the forum he writes extensively on and read most of his blog and other items.  I have to say that he explains in detail more than most others by far and makes more sense with actual ideas and experiences I actually can use,  

Hmm...Very interesting...As I was reading your Post, my Alrelax Alarm went off and I shit my pants...That's the way my Alrelax alarm works...what comes out of my arse bears more than a passing (pun intended) resemblance to what comes out of his mouth.

BTW: If you aren't really Glen or a close relative...then I apologise...put your defence of Glen down to you being unaware of what a right raving looney the guy is. 

Still...the poo running down my leg is a fair indication that I am on the money and my Glendar (Glen Radar) is in full operational mode...or it might just be those oysters I ate last night coming back to bite me.

Edited by ECD
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14 hours ago, wolfat said:

I read many posts of AR but I found them always with a good wording but poor in  contents.

I have learn nothing from his thousand words, apart generic MM that you can find in any book/forum.

but maybe it's me...

A

 

Not just you dude.

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I read, rarely respond.  You assume and you accuse.  Does not much matter. Fact is, I never said one thing bad about y'all.  I am not anyone else or an alias for what its worth.  Fact is, his stuff has content of actual play to it and more than theory and thought.  

His defination and explanation of defining a shoes sections is so accurate for example as compared to stop loss and wagering after such an author a double event, which is all so generic and useless,  just one example to present as to static referred to.  But you guys are on a mission to discredit and present your unwillingness to accept certain people,  Doesn't matter me but it is  so obvious, 

Ok that is all on the subject because it is clear you are upset and aggravated by the person.  Just have done something to actually hurt you or your family,  we can stop here. 

 

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Totally, lol!  Judge, jury and investigators in one,  go to l,v. And assist law enforcement.  You do not know me at all.  Maybe Jordan knows me at the L,D.??!!  Lol, and just might be there, show your face and let me have a laugh too.

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1 hour ago, 8orbetter said:

Totally, lol!  Judge, jury and investigators in one,  go to l,v. And assist law enforcement.  You do not know me at all.  Maybe Jordan knows me at the L,D.??!!  Lol, and just might be there, show your face and let me have a laugh too.

I don't mean to be nasty...but have you forgotten to take your medication or are there just a few kangaroos asleep in the top paddock?...just asking...

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