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Progressions v Loops v Flatbetting... 3 4 5 The Myth...


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The 3 4 5 Progression...The Progression you play when you don't actually use a progression LOL

 

It's time the "Myth" of the 3 4 5 Progression was exposed for what it is... just more BS from "He who must be worshipped and adored" 

The 3 4 5 Prog has been variously described as "SAFE"...an "EXPLOIT PROGESSION" and an "AGGRESSIVE PROGRESSION" 

This from "The Forum that cannot be named"...Flat Betting is for the amateur who has no confidence in his side selection skills – his system play and his System Selection.

Flat betting is best when you have no play skills. But once you have developed good playing skills and table selection skills – you leave flat betting behind – for the amateurs. 

Come with me on this...

With the 3 4 5 ...you are basing at 3 units...

If you win your first bet there is no difference in the result to just Flat Betting 

If you LOSE your first bet and WIN your second bet...You are at +1 which in reality = one-third of a unit... 

If you LOSE your first 2 bets and WIN your third...you are at -2 =minus two-thirds of a unit ...but to be fair still one third of a unit better off than someone just Flat Betting 

But if you LOSE your third bet...you are -12 = - 4 Units which is one full unit worse off than someone just Flat Betting ...swings and roundabouts ... if you must play a progression this is almost as safe as it gets but one thing it is not... IT IS NOT AN EXPLOIT ...NOR IS IT AN AGGRESSIVE PROGRESSION...It is SAFE because you are only increasing your LOSING Bet by one third of a Unit..."The Negative Prog you play when you are hardly playing a Negative Prog" The high scores often quoted by "He who must be worshipped and adored" are simply because he bases at 3 Units and compares his results with Players basing at 1 unit...apples and oranges...just more "Snake Oil Salesman" Bullshit.    

Here is his explanation of the success of the 3 4 5 on his Public Forum which he found time to post in between smashing me ...Problem is...he just shoots himself in the foot. 

1 would like to show you a very practical demonstration of what we have discussed thus far that highlights the difference between flat betting vs progressive betting, and then highlights System Selection, and finally highlights Exploiting with the 345.

Let’s take a common example of 20 plays – about 1/4 of a full shoe.

P1231231232 (our short cut method of posting shoes)

Long form: P BB PPP B PP BBB P BB PPP BB

Note that this is ten Players and ten Banks and contains nothing unusual – all 1’s and 2s and 3s. I’ll start all examples at play 2 so they are equally comparable.

Results:

 

OUR SAP count is telling us High 2s and 3s right from the beginning...What frigging SAP count?...You started 3 4 5 from the beginning of the shoe... That is always OTB4L. Single 1’s, 2s and 3s are what we call OTB4L events. And this column of 20 plays is ALL single 1’s, 2s and 3s.

So now let’s play it OTB4L with a 1,2 progression. Now it scores +13 with a highest bet of only 2 units.

Great, but now let’s add Progression Selection. At play 4 we are already winning twice as many bets as we are losing and we get better from there. This definitely calls for our safest Exploit progression the 345.

We score +27 in a quarter of a shoe !

Still want to Flat Bet? Flat Betting is for untrained amateurs. See that?

 

So let’s play

This is a perfect OTB4L shoe. Here is how we would play it with the 345 – one of our safest yet most aggressive progressions. 

I played his designer sample shoe just to compare the various betting strategies. This is typical Ellis...He provides a shoe that will prove exactly what he wants to prove but this time it backfired badly. 

Sure, he scored +27 but he started basing at 3 which means his total number of winning units has to be divided by 3 = +9...He keeps omitting that teeny detail

 His 1 2 NP prog wins +13 or +39 if he bases at 3...(Fairs fair Ellis)...So his own 1 2 NP in his own sample shoe shits all over his Exploit 3 4 5 Progression... Congratulations, you just shot yourself in the foot in your own sample shoe...LMFAO...Then he posts at the completion of his Sample shoe when he thinks he has proved how great the 3 4 5 is..."I REST MY CASE"...Ellis...you blithering idiot...you just proved yourself wrong...That really takes a special kind of stupid. 

Memo to self: Don't ever let Ellis represent me in Court.

BTW: here is the PA for both methods used

3 4 5 Prog = +27 divided by 3 = +9...PA = 43% ...Sure Flat Betting was only +7 or +21 basing at 3 with a PA of 37% but the difference is hardly anything to write home about and certainly doesn't live up to the hype.  

1 2 Neg Prog = +39 basing at 3 or +13... PA = 52%...YEP Ellis...That 3 4 5 Prog works a real treat...LOL 

I suspect that Ellis was trying to compare his 3 4 5 Prog with Norm's 1 2 LOOP but he has never understood it or believed it would work

These are the results of the different Loops used...

1 2 Continuous Loop = +16... PA = 57%...It's your sample shoe Ellis...not mine

2 3 Continuous Loop = +23 divided by 2 because we base at 2 = +11.5...PA = 45%

3 4 Continous LOOP which is the SAFEST LOOP OF ALL because we only increase our unit size by one-third of a unit = +37  divided by 3 = +12...PA= 56% 

So...There you go Ellis..."I REST MY CASE"!B)

BTW: For those that are interested...the 3 4 LOOP is worth further investigation.

 

 

Edited by ECD
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1 minute ago, CT70 said:

Not to mention the $25 flat bettor is NOT going to raise his/her bets to $75, 100, and 125 just for the sake of playing a 3,4,5 prog. It's just NOT going to happen.   

You can see that...I can see that...anyone with half a frigging brain can see that but a 160 IQ supreme intellect can't...Go figure...

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Oz,

you forgot to mention that, in an avg. shoe, within 20 decisions you "should" find a serie of 4. 

what about -12 units when the prog sucks?

My opinion is that we should not give more importance to some decisions towards others (IE betting 3 units instead of 1).

The skilled player GET THE MOMENT to raise bets, during a hitting pattern and then, retranch!

this is why we play! (hope that NBA does not calls me  money from copyright infringement) :)

A

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bacclover

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as u said oz and ct the myth of it all is not how safe the 345 is but the jump u have to make from a base bet to get on it.

as ct said a $25 player winning say 4 or 5 bets is up $100 and feels confident so decides to employ a 345

their initial bet is $75 to get on the 345 progression and everyone knows it's when u raise your bets you are at the most risk.

if they lost that bet that's wiped out more than half of their winnings in what was a good session.

thats psychologically pretty damn hard to deal

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42 minutes ago, brad01 said:

as u said oz and ct the myth of it all is not how safe the 345 is but the jump u have to make from a base bet to get on it.

as ct said a $25 player winning say 4 or 5 bets is up $100 and feels confident so decides to employ a 345

their initial bet is $75 to get on the 345 progression and everyone knows it's when u raise your bets you are at the most risk.

if they lost that bet that's wiped out more than half of their winnings in what was a good session.

thats psychologically pretty damn hard to deal

As I see it...the 3 4 5 is the least of several evils and for those who insist on playing a NP ...probably the least damaging if it all turns to shit but it certainly is not by any stretch of the imagination (except in Ellis's World) an "Exploit" or an "Aggressive" Progression. As I said...not much difference to just Flat Betting. The best chance of the 3 4 5 working is if you have a record of consistently high Hit Rates...are selective in your bets and you use 3 as your Base unit from the get-go.

Very few are going to treble their base bet after a few hands as stipulated by Ellis. I wonder if any of his disciples actually wonder at his opinion of their lack of intellect when he says "Hey... Look at me...I can make 20 units in a shoe that a Flat Bettor makes 5 or 6" not mentioning that he is comparing to a Base unit of 1... 

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55 minutes ago, ozscouser1 said:

I wonder if any of his disciples actually wonder at his opinion of their lack of intellect when he says "Hey... Look at me...I can make 20 units in a shoe that a Flat Bettor makes 5 or 6" not mentioning that he is comparing to a Base unit of 1... 

The problem is if you question his statement, or gently try to correct the meaning to be in line with the facts, or even just offer an alternative view, then your post is removed and you will likely be banned from the forum with no refund.  It has been done to many of us.  The absolute stupidity of @DeanJ who runs the forum knows no bounds.  If he actually kept semi-intelligent players around, it would be so easy to increase membership.  Instead, he has to beg for membership -- went from bragging a couple months ago about charging $3,000 for all this great stuff to begging for members at $25 month.  Still no takers even at that.  While they remain quiet, I would say everyone is on to the bullshit and not willing to give Dean their money.

I have to laugh out loud every time CFC brags about "teaching" three millionaire players while not a single one of those three made their success playing what CFC teaches, and none of them are even allowed on the forum to help other players which would help Dean grow membership.  You can't fix stupid.

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5 hours ago, cptcomp said:

A $25 BETTER can do  3-4 5  $30-40 50. I do that a lot, negative and positive progression.

Which part of "The 3 4 5 prog is not much better than Flat Betting" didn't you understand? That's what makes it so safe and to call it an "Aggressive Exploit Progression" is beyond stupid.

Sure a $25 Bettor can bet a $30-$40-$50 prog if he bases at $30...but no way is anyone with even half a brain going to base at $25 for several plays and then treble their base bet to $75 as Ellis suggests...just as a $25 Flat Bettor won't suddenly switch to basing at $75...

Do try to keep up...

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