[To be (Ellis) or not to be (Ellis)]

CORRECTION: Hey Ellis, Nighshifter does have a lot of experience under different conditions. He talks about the count and seems to know how to adjust. Do you consider it would be worth to learn and practice the High Opt II system and mix it up with NBJ and WCB? By the way I'm back on the winning track. 3rd base strategy works fine where I am playing as long as you get out ON TIME (correction). I'm 12-4 in my last 16 outings including that infamous night that cut my earnings of that sequence in half.[/quote

Hey Ellis, Nighshifter does have a lot of experience under different conditions. He talks about the count and seems to know how to adjust. Do you consider it would be worth to learn and practice the High Opt II system and mix it up with NBJ and WCB? By the way I'm back on the winning track. 3rd base strategy works fine where I am playing as long as you get out on track. I'm 12-4 in my last 16 outings including that infamous night that cut my earnings of that sequence in half.

[To be (Ellis) or not to be (Ellis)]

Hey Ellis, Nighshifter does have a lot of experience under different conditions. He talks about the count and seems to know how to adjust. Do you consider it would be worth to learn and practice the High Opt II system and mix it up with NBJ and WCB? By the way I'm back on the winning track. 3rd base strategy works fine where I am playing as long as you get out on track. I'm 12-4 in my last 16 outings including that infamous night that cut my earnings of that sequence in half.

Nightshifter, you are an exceptionally bright player. Therefore I think the NBJ package would serve you very well. Actually NBJ conditions are better today than ever before. There are revelations in the package that will truly open your eyes. I think you can quickly get your overall hands won rate well over 50%. You have a clear and open mind making you a top candidate for NBJ/WCB/ISO. Think about it. In your case I think the whole package would pay for itself in one outing. Besides, its fun reading.

While you definitely have NBJ leanings born from your own experience and open mindedness there were a few things you said that made me realize that you are not a formal NBJ player. But you should be.

[To be (Ellis) or not to be (Ellis)]

Hi Ellis

I did not know I was an exception in your group. I bought WCB right here at beatthecasino.com but I never got any audiotapes or any printed material. I have electronic access to my WCB ebook which I can't even download in my computer. I have no material at all and if by any chance this site would go away I would be left with nothing. Did I miss something?

I have a Target 21 background (after giving up on card counting) which is practically all about searching winning tables and table departure signals. Is that similar to your «In search of»? However T21 doesn't say anything about enlightened card play. I've been practicing a lot in the past three months with a computer software that I won't name here but you know which one I'm talking about. It simulates real casino play, shuffle and pick-up procedures. The NBJ/WCB style of play is even incorporated in it. That software really helped me to become comfortable with WCB moves and betting strategies. I'm really stepping up to another level now and I feel like what I need most is experience and game management, not another book, I've read and reread so much stuff already. I even made some experiments of my own that I could probably publish since I have never seen anything written up on this but it's really not my intention. I used to be a head-to-head only player but I have to go Vegas to play those games. Now I don't mind driving two hours (only) to the nearest casino. I can take a day off every week play 1st or 3rd base with WCB and work on my consistency. I don't mind playing with other players now and thanks to WCB (and that software), I don't have to take a 10-day vacation to play blackjack. One thing that is great with a lot of practice is that it takes away the excitement of playing and that's a good thing. When you arrive to Vegas and you have not seen a deck of cards in six months, you tent to get too excited (and well it's Vegas!). Play to win! Don't play to play! Blackjack has to be seen as a business not a game. And I would love to watch you play one day Ellis. When and where would that be possible?

AHA, so you are a WCB player. That explains everything! Out of about 5000 NBJ/WCB players only a handfull are WCB only players which tells me you likely did not get your manual from me. In fact, there are so few that we don't have a policy for you guys.

Keith, I would not be adverse to a half price deal for NiKi1. It would be interesting to follow his exploits. Also his posts would be more informed.

Niki1, I did not go over everything again in WCB that is in NBJ as WCB is the sequel of NBJ. Also, you sorely need In Search Of. Did you get the WCB audio tapes with your manual?

That is how I learned to pick on only the best games. Yes, I'll TRY any 2-3 player game but I'm at the casino at the best times to do that successfully. If you keep a good record of your bottom line profits per hour of play you will learn to only play the hours that improve your bottom line.

No, its not normal and yes it deserves a shot. The cards do not know the time of day. New cards are new cards. It would be good to know if the card prep procedure was the same as the normal morning procedure and what that procedure produces. So many BJ books tell unsuspecting players to avoid new cards that players are suspicious of late opening pits. This presents an excellent opportunity because the fact is that new cards are the very best cards you'll see all day.

No! WCB is great but it is not all inclusive.

[To be (Ellis) or not to be (Ellis)]

Different circumstances led me to play on a Saturday night and I usually try to avoid that but I get the point Ellis. I did not know you could not beat a Saturday night game because you said that at one point in your career you tried to play the toughest games to become a better player and you did. You also say in WCB that you virtually sit at any 2-3 player table? (I've read WCB not only a few tricks on the forum Ellis). Anyway, I'll play dirty from now on and go for the jugular only. Thanks! I also have to see that movie (Hustler).

QUESTION 1 By the way my favorite pitt was closed on that infamous night (they usuallly open it at 7:30 PM). Ellis, do you consider that a normal Saturday night pit if only three players are sitting at a table that has been open for an hour or so? Does a table like this deserve a shot or not?

QUESTION 2 I paid a fair price for World Class Blackjack (a truly outstanding program and the best that I know of in my $1500 blackjack library) which is quite an upgrade over NBJ according to at least one independent review that already had an excellent rating of NBJ. Why would I need to buy NBJ then? I don't understand that sales pitch (Ellis and Keith). Maybe I just need to refresh my mind with some parts of WCB. No?

Best regards

Hi Niki21! The good news is that you are doing a lot of things right. The other good news is that you are doing a lot of things wrong. Why is that GOOD news? Because it means you can greatly improve your game. Not so much an individual game, but your overall performance.

It's like the small NY City boy that said yeah, he's a lot bigger than me but I fight dirty! How do you fight dirty? You only pick on the games you can easily beat.

I can't beat a Saturday night game. Nobody can. They could let you see the top card in the shoe and you STILL could not beat that game. So what were you doing in that game when you know that you would NEVER see me in that game? You don't knock your head against tough games. Fight dirty! Pick on their weaknesses. Stay away from their strengths.

Oh, so you gave yourself an excuse. Look you NEVER give yourself an excuse to lose. Because as soon as you do that's exactly what you are going to do. You KNOW you did wrong. OK, for your penance watch the movie "The Hustler" 5 times. That's the perfect example of why you never give youself an excuse.

"I'll be right there Honey as soon as I lose these chips." Now he's got a game plan. He's got an excuse to lose which is exactly what he's about to do.

Why are you trying to play based on a few tips from the public forum? Do you think we are going to put our best tips in there? You are obviously a serious player who takes his mission seriously. Get the whole NBJ package. Learn ALL the tricks, not just a handful. The price has never been lower and NBJ BJ conditions have never been better! You owe it to yourself. And when you do, pay particular attention to the manual "In Search Of The Winning Game". That is where you are making your biggest mistakes. Keep at it and pretty soon you will see how easy it is to play 3 years W/O a losing day. It's not nearly as hard as it seems right now. You just need to know a few more tricks.

[To be (Ellis) or not to be (Ellis)]

Ellis, I would like to thank you personally for some of my most recent wins, but especially for my latest win, which I consider to be my best card play performance ever (except at my own style of head to head play) Oh I only won $500 which is quite below my best wins but the point is that I beat a difficult game under very bad conditions (crowded Friday night). I beat a highly clumped game playing 3rd base and had I used straight BS, I would have been killed. In less than one hour, I won 12 to 15 WCB hands, hitting stiffs against 5s and 6s but also standing on my stiffs against 10s in HTR rounds. I also played BS in random parts of the shoes. It seems I always made the right move. I was down $400 before I could get a good read and I made a $1000 upswing before losing a few hands and leaving the casino with $500 in one hour of play. The other players could not believe some of the moves I made. They were in awe. The guy at first base even started to duplicate my moves. At one point both he and I had identical hands (12 vs 5) and he asked me. «Do I take it or do you take it?» He took the card and got a 9 for 21. I opted to stay after his 9, a 10 came out and busted the dealer. Perfect. When I left, the guy at first base looked at me, smiled and shooked his head. He could not believe what he’d just seen. It was my 10th straight win but by far the most satisfying. I felt like… I was Ellis and would not have a losing day in the next three years.

Unfortunately, there is a DOWNSIDE to this story. It happened the next night. Again, the conditions were difficult (crowded Saturday night) and table selection was very limited. I wish I could have played in the afternoon but I couldn’t. I was such on a good run (10 straight wins) and I was quite high after my Friday night win that I saw a challenge. I told myself I was going to win, that I could not lose. However, the games were bad and much more difficult to read. Furthermore it seems the dealer always had a better hand. If I had 17 he had 18, and if I had 19, he had 20. Once I had two $200 hands both 20 against 6 and the dealer pushed me. Double downs did not work that well and I did not split much. I started at $50 and after losing $1500, I played more aggressively with many hands over $100 and even $200 (sometimes two $200 hands). I almost made it back with a $1000 run and after staying around that point for a while, I took a dive and lost it all back to end up where my bankroll was a week ago. Then I realized I was not Ellis yet and I went home.

QUESTION : Ellis, my goal is to win consistently and hopefully not to have a losing day in three years (like you) but I guess a 90% win rate would be satisfactory. I show very good discipline at not giving back money to the casino when I win but it’s when I lose that I tend to hang around too long. Where do you draw the line when things don’t work out. It’s tough to pack it in when you are confident. You can be your own worst enemy but you want to fight too. WHAT IS YOUR RULE? How can you win every day? I’m trying to find the right rule for me. I’m pretty cool at a blackjack table but I am now thinking that after three F-words, I should get out. Maybe even before.

[Very interesting article.]

That +-7 sounds like WBC to me Ellis (without counting) at least for one part.

Bet up after one or two low rounds when the high cards started to fall at the end of the previous round.

However how can that work reverse? High cards have been falling and the count is now -7. Now low cards begin to fall and the count moves up toward zero. How can you bet up and exploit that?

The EITHER DIRECTION confuses me.

[Very interesting article.]

Thanks Ellis for the reply

I truly appreciate your time and knowledge. I understand your point but since the counter doesn't necessarily loses his 2X bet or 3X bet before going to another level, that's why I have a hard time considering that a negative progression. From a practical stand point it doesn't matter though. I've tried card counting too but for one short trip. Going to Vegas once a year, I learned with that method only to experiment what you've said and luckily it was not losing $40 000. I found out it was a lot of work to never get a count above +8 (and it was perhaps a good thing). However it helped me notice the hi-round lo-round alternance which you take advantage of.

QUESTION. Any chance to see you play in Vegas or AC in the next few months?

OK. The count starts negative in half of all shoes. The card counter is taught to sit there making minimum bets until the count goes positive. He sits there and watches the tens go by W/O reacting. The fact that the count went negative tells you that's where the tens were.

To your point. Let's use 8 deck where everything is more obvious. The count goes to plus 8. The counter increases his bet from 1 to 2. The count goes to +13. The counter increases his bet to 3. That's a 3 bet negative progression already. He loses. Now he's going to make a 4 bet negative progression. WHY he did it is beside the point. He's already bet a longer progression than we EVER bet. And he did it in conditions not at all favorable to a negative progression. Negative progressions should only be bet from third base where your cards are most like the dealer's and they should only be used in random cards. In random cards the count hovers 0. An NBJ player at third is very unlikely to lose 3 in a row in those conditions. That is his best game. The counter just sits there because he never gets a count high enough to bet. He watches the best games go by completely oblivious to them. Get it?

I read all the counting books with great enthusiasm too. I taught myself to count a deak in 13 seconds flat and tell you whether the card you removed was hi, lo or nu. I learned to exactly change the right BS plays with the count. I went to the casino with max preparedness. I lost $40,000 in a month right after winning every day for 3 years with NBJ. I take that personal. Then I started checking on Arnold and company and found that they never even play. I watched their best counter go to ruin.

Counting books are absolutely filled with mathematical flaws that anyone with any head for math can plainly see. But you don't because you want it to work. Its a scam pure and simple. But the part that pisses me off it they KNOW its a scam. Every player they have is on the wrong side of the standard deviation. If you know ANYTHING about standard deviation you know that all counters cannot be on the wrong side if counting worked at all. It doesn't! We all got scammed, including me. Once I realized that I could beat this game daily and they couldn't beat it at all, I wrote my own book to save others from the fate that befell me at their hands. I don't call that "nice". OK, so I'll be nice. He's a gentleman scammer. The casinos love him. And with very good reason.

[Very interesting article.]

Hi Ellis

The ongoing fight between counters and streak players keeps surprising me.

Actually Snyder was pretty nice to you if I compare his ugly fights with Jerry Patterson on Blackjack Forum. At least he's saying that your system wins more often but I don't think it's fair of him to say that you'r selling a progression system. After all you are giving options (I don't know if it was the case in 1993) and you're now saying that knowing when to stop a progression is a lucrative talent.

What I don't understand is why you're saying that betting up with the count is a negative progression. I don't want to defend Snyder and the counters but to me betting up with the count is clearly a form of advantage betting. I don't understand your argument here.

GIL

This is about right. Before writing NBJ I had a team of Engineers record vital statistics in A.C for two years. We found that:

Perfect Basic Strategy wins 43% of hands on new cards down to 25% on Saturday night cards.

Splits actually lost overall.

Doubles broke even.

Perfect Basic Strategy loses perfectly! Nobody can win that way, not overall. The first thing you have to do is get your hands won rate up over 50%.

Snyder complains about the 3 bet negative progression that NBJ 3rd base uses in random cards. He seems oblivious to the fact that card counters increase their bet with the count. That's a negative progression pure and simple. So what's he saying? It's OK when he's teaching but not when I'm teaching? That's pure bull shit. The mark of a true scammer. He was still teaching it long after he had to know it didn't work.

[Very interesting article.]

Hello NBJ Wannabe

Let me know what you see in Montreal. I'm planning to get there once a week this summer. I'm located in Quebec City and it would be nice to share information. I'm a new WCB player since January and I did not play a whole lot (one week in Vegas and three times in Montreal) but so far the results have been positive. The two times I've played on late Friday nights in Montreal I took a downswing between midnight and 2 AM and made all my money back and more afer 2 AM. However I recognize that I should have played WCB a bit more often but it takes a little getting used to. Standing on 14 vs 10 is not natural but when you keep busting on every stiff hand with tens you realize it's smarter to stand and throw the BS book away. The 3rd time I played was an early afternoon on Saturday. This time there was no downswing and the cards were more random. That was a good afternoon.

[Vegas Trip Report: WCB]

Congratulations on your win Suzanne!

Playing 3rd base in the 6-deck games, do you also use 1-2-4 negative progressions? When do you start those progressions? How many times did you lose three in a row?

And a question for Ellis

How many Ellis hands (different than BS) do you average in a 6-deck shoe?

I'm not talking double downs (or no DD) and insurance.

I'm new to this and I'd say that I average maybe 3-4 Ellis hands per shoe.

So far, I'm extracting an extra unit or two per shoe when the game is readable.

[6 to 5 blackjack in Vegas]

I was in Las Vegas last week and I almost fell off my chair on Friday at Bill's Gambling House.

I was playing the shoe game and got a blackjack with a $40 bet. When I got paid there was a bunch of white chips out there. What the hell was that? "This is 6 to 5 blackjack said the dealer after her $48 payoff. A shoe game with 6/5 blackjack. I could not believe it.

Until then I was winning. I lost the next hand and then I had 16 vs 10. I said I surrender ans she started laughing. She was waiting for my signal. I repeated. I surrender. "No surrender" here.

I got up and since the pit boss was there. I told her. This is horrible. This is the worst shoe game I've ever seen. You will never see me here again.

The pit boss told me that most of Harrah's casinos were doing the 6/5 blackjack nowadays and that they had lost a lot of players. No wonder.

How greedy! I just hope this 6/5 blackjack doesn't take off on the strip or anywhere else.

[Number of hands]

QUESTION 1

I'd like to know how often and when do you play two or even three hands.

My theory based on personal experimentation is that each shoe (I cannot say each game) has its own preferred number of players (hands) when the cards are not overclumped. When the cards are overclumped though, it becomes another ball game. There may not be a better number of players.

QUESTION 2

Do you mix it up in the course of a shoe? One hand, two hand, one hand. If so, when do you do it?

[Why we don't always double down]

Mad Dog and Ellis. Give us a range of expectations. Out of 100 games, on average how often do you get to the 8-unit or even 13-unit level?

[Why we don't always double down]

I should have said I put my trust in 1-4-6 and Fibonacci and enlightened NBJ card play because 1-4-6 and Fibonacci are worthless without it.

When in your progression do you use the Fibonacci Mad Dog and how many wins at one level does it take you to go up?

[Las Vegas in March-Tips]

Clumping is way different in Vegas. Read my "Finer Points" thread in the WCB area.

How is that Mad Dog? Is that because of the 6-deck vs 8-deck? I can't find the Finer Points thread. Can you copy-paste it here?

Thanks

[How to choose between 3rd base, 1st or 1on1?]

Thanks for your response Ellis

One on one is also my favorite and this is where I have made most of my money in blackjack but I also got killed at it a few times. It goes by so fast that you tend to forget your stop loss. I like fast play but my alarm system tends to shut off when it doesn't work.

QUESTION

You play two hands consistently but my best results came when playing mostly one hand, and switching to two hands when I expected tens. I go back to one hand when the high cards are gone.

Do i declump the cards faster that way? I think I do. Before reading your material, I never thought that I was declumping the cards playing one hand.

That could explain why at some point my style seems to work so well and a few of shoes later, it just wasn't working.

[How to choose between 3rd base, 1st or 1on1?]

Until recently. I was basically a one-on-one player and a first base basic strategy player. I've had some positive experience at 3rd base playing WCB recently (even at 6-player tables). I found I was winning consistently at 3rd base but not necessarily spectacularly compared to one-on-one.

My question. How do you choose to play 1st base, 3rd base or head to head?