res
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Posts posted by res
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Ellis, we are all hoping for the best.
res
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Welcome back Ellis!
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If I remember correctly I bought it on Ebay.
I'll stand by what I said earlier. This kind of system is not new, or original. It is the old idea of following, or oppossing, a certain predetermined sequence.
It didn't work for others it won't work long term for you.
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I looked through my files and found that I have this system. The method is not new and has been tried, with variations, in several systems.
The problem with systems like this is bunched loses. They will happen!
BTW, please don't ask me for a copy.
res
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Hi Ellis.
I have a couple of questions about the “Progression Within a Progression”
From the manual
“You may choose to never make 4 bets. Our win goals can accommodate that choice. The way you do that is the first time an OTR bet comes up you bet only 1 unit. But if that bet loses, the next time an OTR bet comes up, you bet 2 units and if that loses next time 3 units. That is actually the way S40 was played when it won 40 straight shoes in a row played at 5 different casinos. We call that a progression within a progression.”
First, does the OTR progression top out at 3, or continue to 4, 5 etc?
Second, after you win an OTR bet what is the next bet? Do you start the progression over? Bet what the regular OTR bet would be (3 or 4 )?
I made have missed the answer to the second part, but I have been looking for it for a while and haven’t found it.
Thanks,
res
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Hi Dancito,
I don’t play online, but I have a friend who does, or did. So I asked him about it.
He was playing on Bet Phoenix, but has quit playing for real money. He tells me that once he had questions about a hand where he thought that the order of the deal was reversed. He wrote Customer Service with a question, but did not get a satisfactory response. They did reply asking for the same information he had already sent them. He resent it and never heard back.
He also tells me that BP has put some kind of pop up on their site that causes the table to disappear at inconvenient times and makes it difficult to take a break. Also, some of the dealers will drive you batty. One in the afternoons seems to switch off and sits there looking dazed when he should be dealing.
Another problem he mentions is that the card reader makes a lot of mistakes, and they are not always caught. I know that you can write to customer service and supposedly get it corrected, but look what happened above. The dealers also make errors. My friend says he has seen several in the last few days. He also says that some of the dealers are not well trained, they seem to be doing “on the job training”.
He also adds that BP’s customer service is probably about anything but service. A couple of times they have been downright rude.
I get the impression that he would not recommend playing there.
res
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Hi Ellis,
Can you give us an estimate for what % of shoes we should be winning? That is assumming that we are playing properly.
Thanks,
res
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Dave,
After following this thread since the start I feel I need to ask. How much have you practiced the NOR Approach? Have you played enough shoes to really develop a feel for the method? I'm not talking about 10 or 20 shoes here, it will take more than that.
res
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Ellis
If you are playing suspend after 3 and if that side wins do you go to the next highest bet or go back to 1 unit bet. Example you lose the 1U, lose the 2U lose 3unit and you win the next hand do you now go to a 4U bet or back to 1u bet
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Las Vegas sounds good to ole ron in Las Vegas.. Any date is fine with me except I will be out of town first part of September
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Ellis,
This is one of the areas where I am having problems. If I am playing S40, and doing reasonably ok. When I hit a streak of 4, or more, can you give some groundrules to swithing to F. Right now I am not swithing on the first 4+. Also if I don't have any history of 4+'s I don't make the OTR bet.
Thanks,
res
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Casno & Sir Donald,
I agree it's a nice concept. But there are three different systems, all with different prog lengths and 2 modes for each.
My point(s): If you are ignoring the OTR bets you are just as well off with the OR count and the event count. If you are not ignoring the OTR bets it will be almost impossible to keep track and keep up in a live game.
I do agree that an overlay is similar, but that can be done quite easily by looking back on your scorecard. I think that that is an ability one must work on developing. I also agree that it might be a good idea for learning the method.
res
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I think that the problem becomes how to handle the OTRs. If you don’t keep track of when you are supposed to bet OTR then you are right back to the OR Count. There are some differences, but not enough to make the extra work worthwhile.
If you do keep track of the OTR bets then you have the problem of when to go OTR. Each system is different and you have the modes to consider too. I don’t think that you would have time to do it between hands. You would still need to keep the event count.
res
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Hi Ellis,
This shoe started out great in F. It did fine until hand 21. Could the shoe have been saved? Or, would you have gotten out?
P283115
B121232111411
B12113222321
B11
Thanks,
res
After looking over this shoe several times I got to wondering if a moving total for the O/R count might not work better.
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Hi Ellis,
I have been doing pretty well playing NOR. However, I ran into a couple of shoes recently. i lost 8 units in each shoe. Could you please offer suggestions.
Shoe #1
P122311331111
P1331122141
Shoe #2
P4211131241
B113
Thanks, res
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Hi Ellis,
From post #13 in the NOR Approach thread.
We always start with F2 as opposed to F3 when starting in the blind BUT starting in the blind should be avoided at all costs. An astute player will have already noted what is happening on the weak side (the side with the fewest circles). Which are we seeing more of on the weak side 2s or 3+s? (3 or mores).From chapter 7, Post #19
Now at the beginning of a shoe we often don't know the correct mode yet so we tend to start with mode 3 until and if it proves wrong.There seems to be a contradiction between the 2 posts. But, I’m not sure that there is. Could you clarify?
Thanks,
res
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Hi Ellis,
A couple of the finer points I’m stuck on. You may have covered them, but I can’t find the answers in my notes.
Could you please tell me how I should bet, playing OTB4L, in these circumstances.
1. For streaks, early in the shoe when we have no 4s or 5+s. Mode 2 or 3?
2. Later in the shoe when 4s and 5+s are tied?
3. Are ZZs basically played the same way?
For F2,3 I have been starting with F2 until I get some SAP counts. After that I check the history of the opposite side (and the SAP count) before deciding whether to play F2 or F3. This usually helps me make a decision. Am I doing it about right?
But, if the history is inconclusive what is the preferred play, F2 or F3? No bet?
Thank you,
res
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Thanks Ellis! That cleared it up for me.
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You are using your EC to answer two separate questions:
1.) When should I go ON a Straight run in this particular shoe?
----after it goes 4 (after 2 lost bets)
----after it goes 5 (after 3 lost bets)
----not at all
The answer is very simple. Which am I seeing more of: 4s or 5+s. We can use the ACTUAL count of 4s vs 5+s. No weighting is necessary. If 4s are greater we go on the run after it goes 5. If 5+s are greater, we go OTR after it goes 4.
BUT if we aren't seeing ANY long straight runs or they are all below normal then we don't want to go OTR at all. Why bet on something that isn't happening? Here we simply stop betting after 2 or 3 losses (is that third bet winning or not?) and we simply wait for the run to end and we go right back to OTB4L betting.
2.) When should I go on a ZZ run in this particular shoe?
----after 2 lost bets (2 confirmed 1's) or
----after 3 lost bets (3 confirmed 1's) or
----not at all (no long ZZ runs)
Again, which are we seeing more of? 2 1's in a row or 3 or more 1's in a row.
We beat a single 1 in a row (sporadic 1s) anyway.
After that if double 1's are greater than 3 or more 1's we go 3 bets.
But if most of the ZZ runs are going to 3 or more we go OTR after only 2 losing bets.
I know its a little confusing at first but with study and practice you'll see that we are handling straight and ZZ runs the exact same way.
We want to either win those OTR bets more than we lose them or not make them at all.
Ellis,
This is from post #4 where you answered a question for me. It has been bugging the hell out of me. If 4s are more common than 5+s (straight runs) I cannot understand why we would go OTR after 5. You would need a run of 6 to win. Is this a misprint?
Your OTR bets for the ZZ runs seem to take an opposite tack.
Thanks,
RES
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Ellis,
I’ve run into this in my practice a couple of time recently. Especially near the start of a shoe.
What if you are playing Fs but have no score for 2s or 3s. (or, 2s & 3s could be equal later in the shoe.)
A simple example might be: PPPP BBBB PP; You have been on the B side, and lost to 2 P. What is next bet.
Would you bet as with S40 and go to the longer?
Thanks,
RES
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Ellis,
I have a couple of questions.
When playing F2 or F3 and you lose on the strong side and then you go to the weak side and lose the first bet. When you go back to the strong side and you lose that bet. What is your next play?
Also when playing F2 or F3 and you are in a chop, winning every other bet, would you start playing the chop at some time?
thanks, res
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Thanks for that very complete respone, Ellis.
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Thanks for that update Ellis. OTB4L is probably the component I am weakest on. I started working on it since your recent posts about it. Now I am wondering how to score runs of 5+. 5+=8, like 4s. Or, 5+=16? Or, possibly another number.
Thanks,
Ron
Ellis
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
Hurry up and heal Ellis.
res