victorino402
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Posts posted by victorino402
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Thank you for the response on the shoe. I am sure there are plenty more that I will find and that will prove to be good learning tools for all of us.
I have another question, Ellis, if you will, and other members, please feel free to jump in as well:
Big Baccarat and Macau Style both use a deck once, that is then thrown away, is, how does this effect the play of System 40? Since the same decks are not being re-shuffled like Mini-Baccarat, does this effect how we play, and if so how? This is an important question as when playing at bigger stakes, you may want to play Big Baccarat or Macau style. Ellis you sometimes describe your success playing a game of Big Baccarat with you and your wife running $1,000 into $10,000, so since you play it, could you please advise? Thank you!
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So is it good enough to simply use the O/R count as the indicator for when to switch to OTB4L or should we be keeping an O/T count throughout the whole shoe or at the point where we implement OTB4L? Detailed "charting" become a hassle after awhile and leads to mistakes. What's the best way to chart? SAP and O/R or SAP, O/R and O/T?
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Ellis, here's a shoe that gave me trouble. I think that because it was a + S40 shoe with little disparity on the SAP chart I couldn't beat it. I understand we will lose to 10% of shoes. How would you have played it? -Vic-
B123212111141
P213111121223
P2161111412
P3
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I saw your questions yesterday Vic but then my day went to hell before I got a chance to answer. Don't take that F2 manual too literally Vic because it is just a cut and paste manual for use for new members until we have a complete S40A manual which will include F2 as it pertains to S40A. I'm sure some of that was from the original F2 manual when we were looking at it from a stand alone perspective.
I think the first thing you need to know about switching systems is this: The more you switch the worse off you are.
I think one of the two problems with the original Maverick is that it had you switching at every whim of the shoe instead of concentrating on the MAIN bias of the shoe. I think the more you deviate from the main bias the worse off you are.
For instance: Your question here:
"What about if the O/R count was +7 and falls to +2, should we switch to Streak even though the shoe is still technically a Chop shoe?"
Recognize that 40 is designed to handle a considerable amout of Streak because nearly all chop shoes have streaky sections. But if we take the bait and switch to a streak system we will likely do that just in time for the shoe to go back to chop. Then we find ourselves chasing our tail throughout the rest of the shoe.
That quick count reversal was likely caused by a straight 5 in a row. But 5s can't hurt 40 regardless of whether the LC is 3 or 4 or even 2. Lets say 4s were LC and we were betting U1D2. Fine, we most likely win the first circle of the 5 and then lose a 123 against the 2nd 3rd and 4th circles of the 5. Then we win our 4, go back to ops and win our 2. We are actually up 1 unit for the whole episode and right back to betting Opposites which is what the shoe is favoring overall. A 6 in a row we would break even.
When I say we want to play the system the OR count is favoring, I'm talking the SIGN of the OR count. Mostly plus + signs is SYs 40. Mostly - signs is F2 primarily.
So, no we would not switch systems just because our +OR count had a minus moment.
BUT, suppose our count actually went -. This means that the signs actually now favor -. NOW we would definitely consider either switching or getting out of the shoe. I find that this only occurs in about 10% of shoes.
What we see more often is an OR count that just doesn't go anywhere. Half the time its + and half the time its - and its frequently crossing 0.
True, both 40 and F2 usually do OK in such a shoe but ONLY OK. BUT OTB4L THRIVES in such a shoe which is exactly why we added OTB4L to the S40A umbrella. And don't forget, OTB4L shoes are the casino's favorite.
S40A puts the emphasis on getting to the right system quickly. This is actually easier in a casino than it is at home. In the casino we went by TABLE history and we were only wrong one shoe in 11. At home, you have no table history to guide you.
Any switching we did was right at the beginning of the shoe but we seldom found this necessary.
Recognize that biases are caused by the shuffle and the whole shoe experienced the same shuffle. THAT is how we get our edge in Baccarat and it is the ONLY way to get an edge. These guys that say all cards are random just haven't played long enough to know better.
BTW, Keith posted a phone conversation between two professional BJ players. I think its on the public forum. You Bac players should take time to listen to this conversation. Yes, its about BJ but its also first hand evidence that the cards are NOT random. BJ and Bac use the same shuffle techniques and the same shuffle machines. Take a listen to it. There is a world of casino knowledge on that tape. BTW, in BJ we ALSO win by using the non randomness of the cards to our advantage. We beat BOTH games by the SAME technology - the non randomness of cards.
GREAT lesson Ellis. Thanks!
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Ellis,
Page 3, paragraph 2 of the F2 manual states, "If you have a count of -2 or greater then you should play F2 rather than System 40. In addition, if you are watching a shoe and you see the count fall in the negative direction of +5 points. For instance you see a shoe at +3 and it falls to -2."
Should this be a rule of thumb as to changing modes whenever the O/R count changes +/- 5 points either from Chop to Streak or Streak to Chop?
When to switch chop/streak modes seems to be the key strategy in 40A.
Is this right or can you give a better trigger as to when to switch modes?
What about if the O/R count was +7 and falls to +2, should we switch to Streak even though the shoe is still technically a Chop shoe?
Vic
Ellis did you overlook this question on thread #27 or did you not want to answer it due to some manuals disappearing? I wasn't sure if that was directed towards me or not.
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Ellis,
Page 3, paragraph 2 of the F2 manual states, "If you have a count of -2 or greater then you should play F2 rather than System 40. In addition, if you are watching a shoe and you see the count fall in the negative direction of +5 points. For instance you see a shoe at +3 and it falls to -2."
Should this be a rule of thumb as to changing modes whenever the O/R count changes +/- 5 points either from Chop to Streak or Streak to Chop?
When to switch chop/streak modes seems to be the key strategy in 40A.
Is this right or can you give a better trigger as to when to switch modes?
What about if the O/R count was +7 and falls to +2, should we switch to Streak even though the shoe is still technically a Chop shoe?
Vic
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Quoting Ellis, "By "starting out" I mean a table you know NOTHING about. I almost NEVER find myself in that situation. I make it a point to examine prior score cards at the target table or know what the card prep produces. I don't play in the blind."
So along those lines, would it be a good idea to wait until a shoe O/R count shows +/- 2 or +/- 3 and then select S40, F2, or RD1 accordingly? Or, if it hovers around zero, +/-1 for five or six hands select OTB4L?
Also, if a shoe hits +/- 8 Streak Shoe status, do we raise our base unit of the prog we are using? Then if it goes back below +/- 8 revert back to the original base unit?
Ellis, you play a 345prog, why not play a 348 prog? Would that improve or lower profits?
Is this the thread to post all A40 threads now?
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Quoting Ellis, "By "starting out" I mean a table you know NOTHING about. I almost NEVER find myself in that situation. I make it a point to examine prior score cards at the target table or know what the card prep produces. I don't play in the blind."
So along those lines, would it be a good idea to wait until a shoe O/R count shows +/- 2 or +/- 3 and then select S40, F2, or RD1 accordingly? Or, if it hovers around zero, +/-1 for five or six hands select OTB4L?
Also, if a shoe hits +/- 8 Streak Shoe status, do we raise our base unit of the prog we are using? Then if it goes back below +/- 8 revert back to the original base unit?
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Hi Vic and welcome to the group. Actually Punvit's replies were quite good. Of course I wouldn't recommend Casino play at all until a new student is well versed and well practiced. I often play green and I usually buy in at $500 but that is only because I know that your buy in is about 90% of what determines your comps. So the $500 is mostly for show. My actual stop loss starting out is very low. If I can't make 8 units suffice, I'll likely find a better table.
What do you mean by starting out? A new shoe or table or both? Also, what is the prog you use for an 8-unit stop loss? A 345 would be only 2 or 3 hands. Is it an U1D2M2 prog or something different?
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Thanks again punvit. Ellis, what do you recommend for a new student starting out on a $25 table for buy-in and bankroll amounts? Ratio for unit/ buy in/bankroll?
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I would say that we need about 20 units buy-in per session. But, regarding the unit size, that is depend on you bankroll. I always play with $25 or $100 based unit, depends on how well the shoe goes.
Thank you Punvit. What is you buy in to bankroll ratio? In other words if you were just starting out and 20 units was your buy in, what would your bankroll be?
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What buy-ins and bankrolls are you guys using for 40A? The buy in and bankroll is important. Let's say using:
345 Limited Prog
U1D2M2
U1D2 no M2
Thanks
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F2 beats all ZZ and all Sporadic 1's. It loses to less than half of the 212s but you don't expect a lot of 212s in -OR count shoes. That is the purpose of your OR count. You seem to be losing sight of that.
I'm not really losing sight of the O/R count. I guess my problem is when I am looking at the SAP chart and LC (2's) has a huge disparity (10-0-16-16) then 2's start coming back to the pack. I'm doing well and it is still LC but in the meantime I'm getting killed by continuing to bet against it. The O/R is still about the same but I'm losing to the LC comeback. I hope you understand what I mean. If so, what should I do in that situation? Thanks for all your help.
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Just remember this:
F2 loves 1's whether Sporadic (single) or multiple (ZZ)
My mind is suffering paralysis by analysis. Doesn't S40 love 1's as well if the culprit is 3 or 4?
Doesn't S40 beat all ZZ's and all 212's when the culprit is 3 or 4 while F2 loses to half ZZ's and half the 212's? What advantage does F2 have over S40?
Also, if RD1 is only used about 10% of the time, what percentages are S40 and F2 used?
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Therefore once you say F2 is a Streak system you want the losing pattern to be a CHOP pattern. Common sense.
Our choice is 2,3 or 2,1,2.
The 2,3 is composed of 2 opposites and 3 repeats.
The 212 is composed of 3 opposites and 2 repeats.
Which will you see least in a Streak shoe? The one favoring opposites or the 212 because streak shoes favor repeats, not opposites.
Sure, its a small thing. But Baccarat is the art of getting a lot of small things right. - A game of odds - Pure Calculus.
Consider this: Baccarat is the #1 profit maker for the casino. Yet their edge is only 1.25% (commission)
That 1.25 % is what we are striving to overcome. How many little tricks of the trade does it take to overcome 1.25%.
Answer, not many. But lots of little tricks add up. Get it now?
Thanks. Yes I get it now. With that, doesn't RD1 in some cases lose to the same 212 pattern?
If so, then what is the key to choosing F2 over RD1? My guess is if there are 1's or ZZ's showing up choose RD1. If not choose F2.
Furthermore, isn't F2 the same as making 1's the culprit in S40. Is there a difference?
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Change to the other side when it has a 2 in a row. But if you lose the first bet on the new side change sides again.
Otherwise bet under all two in a rows and stay on that side until there is a 2 on the other side.
OK the new double switch rule makes the losing pattern a 2 on the other side followed by a 1, 2 rather than a 2 on the wrong side followed by a 3. I figure that the fact that we play F2 in streaky shoes only make the chance of the 212 pattern starting on the wrong side less likely than the 2,3 pattern starting on the wrong side.
Both the 2,1,2 and 2,3 starting on the wrong side losing patterns occur at the same frequency of once every two shoes or once every 128 plays but I figure the 212 pattern is the less likely in streaky shoes.
Above is thread #149. This is the most confusing thing for me in everything I have read so far. Can you explain it differently or refer me to an example shoe which it shows this.
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Right, forget RDH, it's not mine. Yes, post #36 in the RD1 manual is a good explanation and post #3 is a good sample. It used an U1D2M2 unlimited betting strategy with no 0 bets which is a little aggressive. I prefer a 345 limited but all the bet placements are correct to the current rules as I just posted them.
When using the 3,4,5 limited , (I like it) and you need to switch strategies you probably just lost 12 units (-3, -4, -5). What unit buy-in amount do you recommend for the 345 prog?
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On the front page of BTC Hit Forum, then Baccarat, then RD1 Forum then the RD1 Manual sticky. Sorry but this is a massive forum even after archiving most of it..
I see some spin-offs such as RD1-H and others in the threads. Is post #36 by MVS the correct startegy we should use with RD1?
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ELLIS: "Oh, OK, that was just a 3Hi idea posted by one of our astute students."
Thanks. My understanding of the threads so far is to play System 40, F2, and RD1. Do not use 40N.
When a table is choppy (high plus O/R count) play System 40
When a table is streaky (high minus O/R and/or High O/T count) play F2
When a table lacks of 1's and has straight runs following straight runs play RD1
Am I missing something and Is there a specific thread # that explains the above in a more detail?
Also, if using the 3,4,5 continuous prog, (I like it) and need to switch strategies you probably just lost 12 units (-3, -4, -5). What buy-in/ bankroll do you recommend?
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What post # is the RD1 Manual in?
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"Vic, where are you seeing "40A simplified"? What post #?"
Post #6
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Joined yesterday. Read and understand S40finalmanual 100%. The other 2 elements, F2 and RD1 are not clear at all. Different members interpret it differently. Why isn't there a clear cut manual like the S40finalmanual?
I joined thinking this was a completed system not a work in progress. I'm very disappointed in paying $150 for 1/3 of a system less MM strategy. With all due respect to members here, I don't have the time to spend weeks and months on a forum. I was told the price was for the Advanced System 40 manual plus 1 month of forum support. I assumed that was to review the manual if need be. System 40 was posted for free here in the past.
Ellis, if you want to offer me a refund I will take it or produce the complete "Advanced System 40 Manual" including F2 and RD1 rules as I was led to believe was the deal. See my private messages to Keith before I joined. Thank you.
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Right, to download the System 40 Manual, on the front page of BTC, hit Forum at the top. Then hit Baccarat, then System 40, Then System 40 Manual. then hit the blue down load link.
BTW, I just noticed that the signs of the OR count col. on the sample score card on page 11 have not been fixed yet.
They came out all minus signs. An opposite is +1 and a repeat is (minus) - 1.
We will shortly have a similar manual for System 40 Advanced.
Ok, so what is the "System 40 adv. simplified" shoe? How does it fit in with A40?
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Messages 1, 2, and 3 appear to be missing. Plus Keith told me there was a manual to study along with 30 day support. What's up with that?
Article: System 40 Advanced Manual
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
Where are the details of chapter one? The link takes me to an order page which I already did.
Vic