[Singles, 1's, Alternates . . .]

There is much truth in what you say! A count of 1's vs norm is one of our strongest system selection indicators and nearly always right.

For instance: High 1's chop (+ O/R count) = S40 (That is what this shoe was)

High 1's Streak (- O/R count) = F2,3

Also High 1's whether streak or chop eliminates OTB4L consideration.

Following this simple system selection criteria, your shoe is calling for S40 right from the start.

Therefore:

Playing S40 U1D2 M2 with a PL of 3 (3 bets before going OTR for 1 bet only) The way I always start (and usually finish) S40, your ideal shoe marches right up to +20 at play 47 (last play) with a highest bet of 5 (only twice).

Granted, the early 4 gave you pause and monentarily brought your score down to -5 but well within our stop win/loss

(+20 -8) criteria. And you were back to even the very next play with no other dips into - territory.

+20 in only 47 plays is about as good as it gets given the average shoe is 72 plays + ties.

Chalk another one up for S40A!

Low 1's, neutral O/R count, high 2's and/or 3s = OTB4L.

Low 1's, - O/R count = F2,3

Low 1's + O/R count is impossible. (Fortunately)

There is ALWAYS a best system for the shoe at hand. When it is unclear it is best to find a better table but this particular table was about as close to ideal as it gets.

Recognize that for all low count events you must have equal high count events. You mathematically cannot have all events high or all events low. Fortunately. Because this is what makes your event counts such good indicators of system selection.

Are they always right? Of course not. But in Baccarat "usually" is the name of the game. Cash MGT and system switching takes care of the rest. I find that I initially select the right system first about 90% of the time using our system selection criteria. (S40A)

Any time a shoe maintains a decent degree of consistency it is easy to beat - choppy like this or streaky - doesn't matter. It's consistency that counts.

Yes, the shoe was okay, a winner so. . . both you and I have seen better. But that is neither here nor there. I don't like the O/R count as you use it. I don't think it is that effective but be that as it may.

The mumbo jumbo part:

S40A does not win if kept to your rules including stop loss and win. This has been documented. No big surprise since stop loss/win does not make a negative expectation game into a positive one. As far as rote mechanical stop losses go they don't hurt or help except for psychological reasons like staying fresh, maintaining discipline, etc.

Are they always right? Of course not. But in Baccarat "usually" is the name of the game. Cash MGT and system switching takes care of the rest. I find that I initially select the right system first about 90% of the time using our system selection criteria.

"Usually" is the operative mumbo jumbo word here. If we were "usually" right S40A would win!!!! That is what "usually" means, right? So why the need to employ "system switching?" If not then IF we were "usually" right then our "switch" would "usually" win. What's the switch rule?

Okay, fine. So teach your members how to switch because half of them win and half of them lose. Why do you think the whole world is NOT playing S40A or the other 20 systems you sell?

Jimske

[Singles, 1's, Alternates . . .]

. . .whatever you want to call them. The guy who posted the thing about singles is right on! When the 1's are distributed in around normal or average fashion they leave little room for a lot of long streaks. Though it can happen and does.

Example partial shoe from last week at MoSun

B2211411131211113111612121311 47 decisions. You'd like to see a few more 2's and less 4's and no 5 so it is not the best choppy shoe but you get the picture. I quit +7 for the simple reason that it had too many longish repeats and I don't like a shoe with so many 1's and not enough 2's and 3's. Could have been worse but I will wait for a better shoe.

What about the opposite? Low 1's - expect to see longer repeats, duh!

Jimske

[Article: Re: S40A Manual Q&A]

I am new here. I am also exploring ways to win in this game.

S40 - Is this system trustable and involve counting cards or just look at trends.

I do not use any progression just flat bet , is this system suitable for me?

To the poiint of S40A. It is my opinion that it is best to have a guideline method to play with and S40A is as good as any. BUT - it DOES NOT perfrom any better than Ellis' previous dozen methods when played by the strict rules. Every method needs to be adjusted according to the shoe conditions. How? You guess the trend and change the bet pattern and hope you win and use MM and discipline to stay ahead.

Jimske

[Article: Re: S40A Manual Q&A]

Just trends. When we speak of counts we are not talking about BJ type card counting. We are talking simple stuff like opposites vs repeats or 2s vs 3 or mores - simple stuff. You learn 3 simple systems and how to apply the right system to the right shoe. Our progressions are very shallow never going more than 5 units but flat betting is viable and several members only flat bet. How much you bet is totally up to your own comfort level. The main thing is to win more hands than you lose by selecting the right system for the shoe at hand.

Ellis, please, did you just not say or intimate in "Attention Ellis" post that flat bet is not viable unless you discover certaiin "triggers" in individual casinos as per Paul Starr? Seriously, you have consistently ridiculed me for, well, a long time (Aegis, too) for advocating the viability of flat betting and now. . .???

Yes, you do have to win more hands then lose in flat bet - that's academic and also have to overcome the juice. Also academic.

Is flat betting really harder then progressions? We still have to win more of the big bets than small bets and overcome the juice. It's simple really, for every bet that you lose in a progression you have to make another bet that is bigger than that losing bet to make a profit and pay the juice!

Yeah, progressions can win more shoes but not necessarily a greater % of dollars bet.

Jimske

[Attention ellis]

In fact I talked to Paul Starr, the flat bettor, just a couple weeks ago after his last Las Vegas trip. He is still flat betting at $300 units. He has betting triggers figured out for 5 different Vegas casinos. He's been doing this for years. But, when he strayed from those 5 Vegas casinos and attempted a trip to a California casino, it was disasterous.

Anyway this is all mumbo jumbo. Here is why! Casinos chanage their shuffle habits and quipments all the time. Any reasonable person understands that there is not a common pattern that any single casino delivers for any length of time. To think that a particular casino has stayed with the same biased shuffle for "years" is just beyond logic.

It "may" be that certain shuffles at one time (before the sophisticated shuffle machines) were prone to exhibit predictable patterns but these days are over. What is more likely is that Paul wins flat bet or mostly flat bet the same way I do. Watching and guessing trends plus good MM and discipline.

As far as S40A goes it has been tested against thousands of live shoes and has shown not to produce a win - this with or without MM. So how do you teach winniing? What is the rule to switch methods, stop betting, only bet certain shoes when you see a certain pattern(s)?

It is just as you state above about Paul - 'not teachable."

Jimske

[Attention ellis]

In fact I talked to Paul Starr, the flat bettor, just a couple weeks ago after his last Las Vegas trip. He is still flat betting at $300 units. He has betting triggers figured out for 5 different Vegas casinos. He's been doing this for years. But, when he strayed from those 5 Vegas casinos and attempted a trip to a California casino, it was disasterous.

Oh, so Paul Starr has what may be called "advantage bets?" So how come you ridiculed me for saying the same?

I have nothing against this style of flat betting particularly if you play off the wash at a casino where the morning card prep produces a dependable bias, which is quite common. But it isn't teachable. What works in one casino will likely not work in the next. It takes long hard detective work and extreme discipline.

The only things that are truly teachable are purely mechanical methods - which - don't work as you ahve stated many times.

Paul may bet as many as 30 times per shoe but judges his stop win and loss according to the quality of the shoe. The quality for HIM. But he has a specific trip goal he adheres to iron clad. Last trip he hit his trip goal the first day and got right back on the plane in spite of a 4 day comp. There aren't many that disciplined. A very serious pro.

I think this goes for everyone or are you insinuating that with S-40A you don't need to be quite so disciplined? Can S40A win without table selection, MM, and Stop W/L goals?

Also, regarding my deleted post above can you please explain my question about progressions? Is it not true that if a short progression like U1D2M2 going 4 or 5 deep works well then why the same progression going 6, 7, 8 or more deep won't work even better?

Jimske

[Attention ellis]

Deleted by Ellis for the same old reason, name calling. Some just never mature.