ztomsk
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Posts posted by ztomsk
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Hey Fellas,
I see some familiar names here. I've been a part of this forum since 2011, but took a hiatus in 2015. Boy have things changed in two years! But it seems to be for the better.
Excited to be coming back and seeing how far everything has gotten. Looks like I have some catching up to do!
Now... to get access to the private forum. Does anyone know the difference between Strategic and Premium?
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Here' s a bit of Bac2TheFuture for those of you just wanting to win a few units per shoe, and STOP when you do...or Don't
I did not " invent" this, just putting it into context of today's Baccarat environment
Pre-shuffled, or not.
Look, 50% of all events should be 1-IAR'S, and 25% 2-IAR'S, over the course of your " session experience" , whether 1 shoe played at a single casino, or 20 shoes played out over 3 days at different casinos...
N.O. - it will not be exact, whether per-shoe, or for 20
But, unless the casino is plundering and pillaging relentlessly, or all of Vegas is " in cahoots" with one-another, it pretty much will be...
So here is an old-school " system" , resurrected from the bone-pile, with a modern-day twist ( takes into account NOR bias + RegressionTo The Mean attributes of MDB)
Just glance at the tote board and look at/keep track of three things:
OTBL
Opposite
Repeat
Rules:
Anytime last hand resulted in an OTBL " win", no matter what bet,OTBL again next hand
Anytime last hand DID NOT result in an OTBL win , bet THE SAME AS whether the last hand was an Opposite, or a Repeat of the previous hand.
Example:
Was last hand OTBL? Opposite? Repeat? ( of the previous hand)
If answer was :
OTBL - YES
O - YES
R-NO
You must bet The next hand will be an OTBL result.
If last hand was
OTBL - YES
O- NO
R - YES
You must bet the next hand will be an OTBL result.
Note: If next hand would be a repeat of the result from the prior hand ( OTBL + O, or OTBL + R), this indicates and even stronger bet on OTBL result for the next hand....but in any case, bet OTBL regardless if the last hand was an OTBL result...
Now, if last hand DID NOT result in an OTBL result compared to the previous hand, but instead was just an O or R result from the previous play, just bet that the next hand will repeat as an O or R result again.
Best use is for small overall wins per shoe ( 1,2,3+ units)...then move on to another shoe, leave casino, etc.
EZ to apply w/progressions, or not...
This is great " hit and run" baccarat, or moving table to table, as opposed to playing whole shoes or waiting for MDB triggers
Does well if shoe is producing lots of 1's , or 2/3's in a given section of the shoe
Or.....lots of 4+ steaks in a shoe..., with normal amount of 1s, 2's 3's as a % of normal distribution...
AND REMEMBER, best for " hit it and forget it" advantage play...( thanks, TRBFLA)
Good luck, and give it a quick try for just a few hands, selected randomly, from your previously played shoes...
Cool thanks for sharing - def a good way to play for a few units. Is this the same as OTBL mode 1 - stay on the run until it ends? Looks like the only thing that can go wrong it hittin a 313131...
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One liners are key. Replayed some losing shoes and ended up winning a couple units on most before I quit. This time I held off on making the 2bet on the shoes with low one liners. Just went by what happened last time. If it went to 4 ZZ last time, then I would make the 2bet. If not I just stayed out.
Did the same thing for runs. If the last 3 went to 4 then I would make the 2bet. If not I stayed out.
So on the bad shoes (OTB really) you pretty much flat bet 1 unit against 1s and 2s. Then let the chop and 3s dictate the rest.
As long as the previous events would have won last time, I played as normal.
The shoes u normally win, u win anyways. But the losing shoes have a chance to be turned into small wins even if it's 1 unit. Or a small loss. Big units seems to be the only way as commission will tear u up.
Yes u will miss an occasional long run that if u were on would have made u win - but this is still gambling.
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I got this mainly to support BTC and to stay with the forum. My game isn't 100% where it needs to be or where I want it to be yet and you learn something from everything on here.
Aside from the very beginning - the way I see it (unless I misconstrued the rules) - another simpler way to look at this would be to flat bet 1 unit against 1iar and 2iar. But bet 2 units on anything past 3 or more straight or ZZ runs.
The system is cool and easy to do but I seem to be breaking even (short amount of testing I admit). I do see potential though. I don't really see any point in trying to change it drastically... because it can get really out of hand. I think when to bet high side vs low side might be the best to try to nail down. It's tough because you can be out of the shoe a winner or loser quickly.
Maybe there will be some discoveries after the seminar.
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ztomsk, you are seeing a very rare and exciting money making opportunity.
It is similar to what we faced in Atlantic City and Vegas, late '80s, early '90s - way too many long runs.
You need to know the up as you win Fibonaci progressiom.
The simplest form is (2) 3 5 8 12 20 30 50 80 130 200 300 500 800 1000, depending on the table max.
BUT you DON't bet up as you win all the time - That's the secret of it.
Bet your normal 123 up as you lose progression in mode 2.
That puts your 3 bet on the run - either S40 or OTB4L but most likely TB4L.
Whenever you WIN your OTR 3 bet - fine. THEN go up the Fib.
You are only at risk with your 5 bet. That's it.
Because after that, you are betting only your winnings from the last 2 hands. See that?
So it's extremely aggressive but at the same time totally riskless after your first bet.
The idea is to get to the table max and stay there until you lose.
Look, the riskless nature of the Fibonaci is unique.
It is found throughout nature.
I didn't invent it. God did. It is God's progression.
So when you are contemplating that 80 unit bet......
Just remember - you've got God on your side!
Now here is a little trick when you are seeing LOTS of runs.
I got this from Michael The Arc Angel.
Bet the Fib U1D2.
Yep, when you lose, just go down 2 rungs and restart from there. If you lose go down 2 more.
That gives you the most opportunities to get to the table max.
You are seeing lots of runs and If you hit any runs at all they'll put you at the table max quickly. See that?
One of our members, Sherry Pelzman, played that way and holds our record for the most units won in a single shoe - 450!
Her table max in that game was 100 units ($10,000) So she won 4.5 table maxes - $45,000, less commission.
Hey, you are looking at a rare opportunity. But an advantage is not an advantage unless you take advantage of it!
Now you know the BEST way!
So, go for it! Beat 450 units! Let us know...
Thats great thanks Ellis - appreciate you giving those tips. Will def give it a try. So with the U1D2 - that's always up as you win then? And go down 2 on any loss?
Quick question on the first method just so I understand fully. Is the 123 literally 123 or is that (2) 3 5? (Fist three bets)
Say it's an S40 shoe... I bet 1,2 against all 1's and 2's and then OTR once I see a 3iar? Is that bet 3 units or 5 units?
So in this S40 case the killer pattern is back to back 3iars correct.
Also the table max is 3,000... what do you recommend a good buy in would be?
I may not be able to beat Sherry, but I'll give it hell! Will report back with results.
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Cool thanks fellas - I'll give those a shot. Sounds interesting.
I think the casino might be throwing those long runs because people keep betting against them. Would love to catch one and ride it for a decent score.
Never tried it before because I'm a conservative player... but damn it's there to take advantage of.
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Just curious if anyone has had any success with positive progressions?
Lately I've been seeing super streak or super chop at my casino. People are losing thousands betting against it.
Is U1D1M2 best? Or would some kind of positive prog take better advantage for long runs? Maybe a Fibonacci.
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To answer both questions the first one is -10 for my "stop limit".
If the shoe starts out pretty easy, I'll make a "test" wager from +6, just to see if the runs will continue. If they do, I'll play on but stop if it gets back to +7 or +6 in a losing streak.
The name of the thread here in the forum for this "OT+" mechanical system play is:
A Simple Million Dollar System
The thread is about 80+ messages or so by now but the basic idea is right at the start.
It's probably one of the main reasons I read EVERYTHING on the board. You just never know when something might just grab your attention and you can work with it a bit to perhaps make it work with your own style of play.
Of course a good understanding and fast play at OTB4L and TBL is a must when running "on the fly".
In the basic system, not using any stops, the losing pattern is 2,1,1,1,2,1,1,1.
MVS (if my failing memory hasn't left me yet)
Nice to see I'm not the only one using this. My personal favorite way to play to date.
People really ought to test it out where they play and see how they like it.
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Hi ztomsk,
So sad to hear that you have done so well for a long period but suddenly encounter one big lost. I am just a new member so i don't think i can give any useful suggestion.
But based on my experience in forex, the win rate of you trade is not the most important winning factor, but the risk that you take to win certain profit matters most (i.e, the stop loss). So if you can consistently control your stop loss (do not take more risk after you see a high win rate), i don't think you can encounter big loss. As i remember Ellis did said he did not bet big using his own money, but he will bet big with casino money.
Regards,
Kevin
Thanks man appreciate the comment. I'm still up 4k so the loss wasn't everything. I stick to my stop loss.
I've been playing for a while but this is the first time trying this level up plan. Just not sure if I should play again at $100 or level back down and rebuild...
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So after winning countless shoes and well above the "required" next level up in the ladder, I decide to level up to $100 min. And. I lost. Terrible feeling after doing SO well for so long.
Bad luck I guess. I think I may have waited too long to level up. Do you think it's better to level up quickly or to build up a few buy ins at a certain level? Anyone have any suggestions?
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Mark, welcome to the forum. Almost all of the no touch games in Vegas are similar -- preshuffled cards are alternated throughout the day and changed out once per 24 hour period. Almost all of the touch games are also preshuffled cards, but they are changed out for each game. What I have found, so far, is that MDB+ does extraordinarily well with the touch games. For the no touch games, MDB+ is a little less reliable. I am still winning more no touch games than I am losing, but most of the failed progressions are appearing on the no touch games. Just as you describe, the no touch games often have periods of great consistency (bias), although they sometimes change during the shoe.
You can try playing those games using one of the NOR approaches, based on what you are seeing. OTBL, TBL and S40 are great for such a situation. Identify the bias, play the matching system and keep a tight trailing stop so you don't get killed when the shoe switches. For example, that section you had of 10 2+s would likely have been killed by OTBL. When it no longer is winning you can switch to TBL, or just quit with your profit in the shoe. Ellis had an excellent post just in the last day or so about how to use what you are seeing to select the best way to play. I look to play MDB+ mostly because it wins the most and is perfectly suited for large units, but I am always ready to play another way based on what is actually happening. There are a lot of great tools within NOR, MDB and throughout the forum.
By the way, it would be great it you could post a shoe or two of what you are seeing. It will help all of us better see what you are up against, and give you better feedback.
http://www.beatthecasino.com/forum/showthread.php?t=8225
The O&T system Ellis developed might work out well for what you are seeing.
My casino has the exact same shoe set up and I use the O&T often. Honestly one of the best and simplest systems I've ever used - highly recommend it. At least at my casino. Just watch out for high 2s and 1s!
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Well, all is covered but I don't mind pointing out a few tips right here.
First, you are playing the best game there is: Head to head - Third base against NEW cards, Basic Strategy with a 3 bet negative progression.
Tips:
1. When starting, never bet more than 1 unit until you have won a hand.
2. Then, start out with a 123 or even a 112 until you demonstrate you are seldom losing 3 in a row.
3. If all goes well quickly advance to 123, 134, 146 but no higher or longer. Your object is to get to 1,4,6.
4. Best is 1, 2, 4 or 8 deck. Worst is 6 deck.
5. Keep the game head to head as much as possible because that stops clumping and good games stay good.
6. Don't play red games at all. They become unbeatable quickly because the table loads up with too many players.
7. If playing green, buy in at 12 and work in piles of 12.
8. If playing black (preferable) buy in at ten and work in piles of 10.
Double your unit whenever you have two clean piles of 10.
9. Don't split! Splits lose overall - even 8s and aces. Losing once is better than losing twice. Hit and hope.
Where are you going with an 8? The average dealer hand is 19.2.
Aces you only get one card on each Ace. What if they are 3s?
Hit! You get a free hit! You can't break on your first hit and usually not on your second either. You usually get at least 3 chances to make a good hand. But if you lose, you only lose once.
10. Watch for clumps. We even get them with new cards. They will show up in the next shoe too. But now you are prepared.
11. Do not increase your bet in a low card clump - hit to a pat hand. The dealer CAN'T break in a low card clump.
12. Double and insure with 11 against Ace. You've got the pansies on her. If she hasn't got BJ, she's probably got crap.
13. In clumped cards, double 8 against 7 with 10s running.
14. In new cards, look to double, esp after a losing hand.
15. Don't think of a lost hand as a lost hand. Think of it as an opportunity.
I could keep going all day but that should get you started on the right track.
Thanks for taking the time to reply with thought out tips. Appreciate it.
I already have NBJ - would you recommend using that basic strategy chart (variable strategy) for 3rd base. Admittedly I do not have that down pat yet. Should I focus on that first before moving on to other materials?
Is there extra information in the WCB manual?
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There are a lot of BJ options to choose from on the site. I was just wondering what anyone thought would be the best to learn from? I'm looking for new cards head to head games 3rd base.
Currently I do well simply playing head to head with the 3 bet prog using basic strategy. But I know I will need more to be a true player. What kind of tips/tricks are covered to aid the 3rd base play in the materials on the site?
Also - is there a million dollar BJ in the works? I remember reading something about that before.
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Ellis,
What about playing at a $15 touch table, flat betting every hand the min amount using TB4L while watching for 2-2's then when an MDB+ play sets up switch to your $100 unit 1-2-4 prog (if needed)?
Seems like a rational way to go if you're the only one at the table since you're only using the min flat betting to keep you "in the game" so they'll deal. Of the 10 or so shoes I've played the flat betting seems to hover around a net of $0 or a slight loss or win, but you're only using that to continue playing.
Glenn
btw - I've noticed very little difference in patterns between the touch and no-touch tables at Parx. At a glance, it seems the wins / losses are about the same. The most frequent killer being multiple 2's before a 1 or 3.
Seems like a very solid way of playing to me. How's it been going?
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At first base I'm going by the last 3 cards dealt in the prior round, particularly the last card dealt. If I'm seeing tens I bet high. If not I bet low.
Because, the next card to be dealt is MY first card. When it's a 10 my odds go up to 74% at that point.
I know side bets are sucker bets designed to make the casino more money... And we don't even mess around with them.
But what about the lucky lady side bet at first base? We are betting high for a good hand. Aiming for 20s. Any 20 combo pays 4 to 1. And more if they match. Do you think it's worth throwing a little extra on there when we bet high?
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I would play the 8 deck but I would play NBJ First Base which is designed for clumped cards. That is the system I used to make $10,000 in a half hour twice W/O betting over $200 or under $100 at the Taj. Both times were on Saturday afternoon when the cards have seen a lot of play.
10K in a half hour with $200 max... that's incredible, Ellis. So when you play 1st base head to head - do you still keep track of all the prior cards, or just go by the last Key card?
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Good question! I usually play head to head because that produces the best odds but that is not always possible.
Next I'm looking for the newest cards with the fewest players especially one and two deck games preferably two.
I can't control other players getting into the game but that causes me to keep one foot on the floor ready to go.
New players usually don't stay long and I can often wait them out.
I'll only sit down with 3 players already in the game in 2 deck and only as a last resort but again with one foot on the floor.
The reason being that 2 deck or 1 deck cannot be clumped up much with only 3 players.
If the casino doesn't offer 1 or 2 deck, what do you think is the next best for head to head 3rd base? 6 or 8 deck?
My casino has only 6 in the high limit room which doesn't get much action. But the main pit has only 8 which gets more action. So 6 deck played less or 8 deck played more?
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To played in a tournament once at my local casino. It's pretty much just as Ellis described.
One thing about it was that they did not allow the use scorecards... so nobody could track the shoe. You might be able to still follow the flow mentally if you really focus. But it's mostly just luck - it's kind of fun though. You are just playing against the other players chip stack - you have to constantly monitor that.
The last hand the person to my left bet player. I wanted to bet player too but he had more chips... So I had no choice but to bet banker if I wanted to come out ahead of him. I ended up at the final table and came in 4th place overall.
The first place winner caught a tie hand with chip max on it.
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Thanks for the advice guys! Good tip to watch the first basemen and judge from there.
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Everyone should realize that this is like reading the NOR Manual for the first time ... You say to your self , "what the F _ _ _ ". But as time goes on . And the more reading you do , and re-reading with a whole lot of practice shoes ... things fall into place ....
As for me . I'm going to practice and practice while re-reading the diretions ... With that , i think things will fall into place.... ( In my spare time ).
The only part of the rules that I do to get is "switching on winning 1's". Wondering how there are ever 1 bets if we are net betting the high side. Any ideas?
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Hi,
Very interesting but the critical sample shoes don't seem to be at those links. Could you just post them for us?
Definitely not a conservative way to play but I would like to see a little more.
Thanx for posting about it.
Best regards,
Jim
No problem. Yes it does seem interesting. It was a very old post that someone brought up in the public forum... I figured I would repost it here because it wouldn't get noticed there. Maybe someone has those example shoes. I followed it mostly, but it's impossible to get it 100% without examples or extra clarification.
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The winning response to today’s random Baccarat games:
E. Clifton Davis’
All Out War
The only method that beats today’s random shoes
What we are up against today: In the ‘80’s and ‘90’s Casino Baccarat shoes often contained certain discernable trends exploitable by knowledgeable system developers and trend players. These trends were created either accidentally or purposefully by casino card prep procedures. All Baccarat systems to date attempt to exploit trends. Some past systems were successful to some degree. However, in their constant quest to optimize profits, casinos identified this weakness and promptly corrected it. Through their use of random shuffle machines and random card prep procedures, casino Baccarat shoes today are largely trendless and, for all practical purposes, random, rendering all systems to date obsolete.
There are many ways I can prove this to you but for now, let me ask you just one question: Whatever system you are playing right now, how’s it been working for you lately? Need I ask more?
Identifying the task: The first step toward any solution is to identify the problem. Pure and simple: Beat random shoes. That’s the name of the game today. Mathematicians argue amongst themselves on just about everything. But they all agree on one thing: random numbers cannot be beat. They even joke about it with comments like: â€That’s as stupid as trying to beat random numbers.†But is Baccarat truly random? I’m convinced that today, the selection between Bank and Player is, for all practical purposes, random. However, we are only looking at a slice of true random. To be true random, the game would need to have infinite selection. But it only has two, thank you very much. Either P wins or B wins. There is no C, D , and F possibilities. Only two, P or B. Forget T! If you still bet on ties, now is a good time to stop. I submit to you that the problem of choosing between only two possibilities can be solved by sufficient torque applied randomly. It took me years to discover exactly how to do this. I call it All Out War because that is exactly what it is. No timid system can beat today’s random game.
AOW Overview: We employ the Fibonaci progression because it has proven itself to be the most successful high torque progression ever developed. We marry that prog to net betting. Net betting, a previous creation of mine, has proven itself to be the most effective way of taming high torque progs. Net betting actually increases avg. win size while lowering avg. bet size and vig. This has proven to be an ideal marriage. We apply betting in a virtual random fashion that does not favor Player or Bank or Opposites or Repeats. Or, better said, we favor all of those equally. We fight random with random.
AOW Objective: To play the AOW successfully, it is critically important that you fully understand and appreciate our objective. Our objective is to either win the shoe at about +120 units or break even. All of the rules and all of the cash mgt. are designed to work harmoniously to achieve this objective. And it does, if you play correctly. We can afford to lose a prog IF we start over again at 1 vs. 1 immediately and complete the shoe. In 72 plays, we will end up close to even. The third sample shoe is an example of this. Fortunately, today, most shoes are somewhat longer than 72 plays (not counting ties) increasing your chances of achieving the break even part of our objective.
AOW early statistics: Thanks to Keith, we will soon have proven finite numbers on all aspects of AOW computer tested over thousands of shoes. Until then, I’ll give you the manual test outcomes. Manual testing indicates we will lose 7 progs in 24 shoes or about 1 prog every 3.4 shoes. Also, we will hit our stop loss twice in 24 shoes by hitting multiple losing progs in the same shoe, scoring about -80 in each of those losing shoes. This gives us an average of about +67 units per shoe overall. If these statistics are anywhere near correct, the AOW is the highest scoring system ever created by a country mile. We will know very shortly. Recognize that even if we lost a prog in 9 out of 10 shoes we would still walk away a winner.
What we lose to: We employ an 8 bet prog. Normally an 8 bet prog loses to a certain 8 play pattern. We don’t. The AOW loses to certain 9 play minimum patterns. You will soon note that the 8 play pattern we lose to in one instance, we sail right through the next instance. Therein lies some of our advantage. To lose to a pattern we must hit it wrong. As we test, we will identify losing patterns for informational purposes only.
The importance of playing correctly: Time and time again, we have found that AOW mistakes can be costly. If you miss a switch or fail to note that you have won your two bets, or go back to 1 early, you get into a condition we have come to call wrong footed. This inevitably ends up in losing a prog to a normally non losing pattern. Therefore practicing until you play flawlessly every time is imperative. Practice, practice, practice!
Personal Scorecards: The AOW is difficult enough without the added complication of unfamiliar scorecards. My recommendation is to take our card or the card of your choice to a copy shop (if you do not have a copier) and have plenty of copies made on heavy gage light colored paper that you have checked for its ability to take your writing and erasures. Make sure you have sufficient room to play a full shoe on the same side of the same card without having to turn the card over or resort to two cards.
Scorecard legibility: As you play, make your circles as large as possible and try to draw them in horizontal ellipticals as I have on the sample games. We aren’t used to double digit entries on our card, let alone triple digit entries. Write your numbers as large and as clearly as possible. Nothing can ruin your day more than making mistakes because you couldn’t read your own writing.
The importance of conservative play: I have dropped the conservative prog because it lacks the advantage and win rate of the Fibonaci. I would much rather see you play nickels on a dime table in the interest of conservation.
The minimum bankroll requirements listed below are just that, minimum. While 100 units should suffice, Baccarat seems to be the very proof of Murphy’s law. I would much rather see you start with 200 units even if it means starting with nickel play until your Bankroll reaches $2000. Then go to dimes.
Advancing your unit: The same applies to advancing your unit. Many players have learned the hard way that advancing your unit is the most dangerous decision you could make. You get into position to advance your unit because you have won several shoes in a row. You are overdue to lose. However, the AOW presents opportunities to advance your unit quicker than any other system. If you choose to do this, don’t do it until you have 200 units minimum of the higher denomination.
Cash mgt. explanation: Once you have successfully completed your first shoe without a prog loss, cash mgt. is no longer much of a factor. Therefore, our cash mgt. is designed to get you to that point. The reason we hold off on the 55 bet until play 20 is because when you lose a prog in the first col. you are at your most vulnerable to lose two progs in the same shoe. You are also at your most vulnerable to hit your stop loss. The hold off on the 55 bet is an attempt to get you through this calamity with enough chips to continue play. Additional computer testing will pinpoint the optimum play to initially deploy your 55 with minimum exposure.
Casino heat: There is no question that the AOW will draw more attention than any system we have ever played. It will draw attention from the other players as well as casino personnel. Be alert to this. The last thing you want is to be asked to leave. Leave on your own before you are asked to. There are other casinos and other days. Now, we are ready for the AOW rules. Learn them well and practice as much as possible. When you have everything down pat practice until you can play automatically and confidently.
AOW Rules
12/07/05
1. Scorecard: Prepare your scorecard in ECD Bac fashion:
4 columns, 20 plays long, 5 lanes per column. Head the first two lanes P and B. The remaining 3 lanes are for your running score. The two extra score lanes are for future use should you want to compare progressions, systems, or variations. At each play, make your P and B entries according to the rules below. Circle the side that wins and enter your running score. See sample games.
2. Progression: AOW: 1 3 5 8 13 21 34 55
3. Betting: The AOW utilizes the ECD Bac net betting strategy:
Starting on the first play at 1 vs. 1, start your progression down both sides. Bet up 1 rung when you lose and down 1 rung when you win. Each play will have a P and B entry. Subtract the low bet from the high bet and table bet the difference on the high side. When the two entries are the same, we have no table bet that play.
4. Mandatory 3: The 1 bet, win or lose is ALWAYS followed by the 3. Accordingly, the first two plays are always 1vs.1 and 3 vs.3.
Our first table bet is always at play 3.
5. Objective: The objective of each progression is to win 2 bets either in a row or separated by 1 loss. (Win-Lose-Win) Once accomplished, that prog goes back to 1 and starts over.
6. Inserting the 2: Since we must have room for the two winning bets without decreasing to 1, whenever we lose the 1 and win the 3, we insert the 2. When we win the 2, we have won our 2 bets so we go to 1. When we lose the 2 we do not bet 3 again. We skip up to 5. If we win, that’s our two bet win so we go back to 1.
7. The lose 2 win 1 rule: Whenever we lose 2 bets (only 2) and then win, and that winning bet is 13 or higher, we take the 3 bet series over again. (we go down 2 instead of 1). As a conservative measure, once you are in the 3rd and 4th columns, I recommend that you employ this rule at the winning 8 bet level. This conservative measure protects us from the terrible threes, BBB PPP BBB PPP.
8. Switching on winning 1’s: The progressions do not continue betting straight down. This would cause us to lose shoes that strongly favor one side or the other. To keep our progressions relatively even and to keep our high bets to a minimum, whenever we win a 1 bet, (with the exception of the first play of the game) the resulting 3 bet goes on the other side. The other progression accommodates by also switching sides. The two progressions remain on the switched side until the next winning 1. Recognize that the win 2 objective follows its progression. Example: We win
a 1 bet on Player. The resulting 3 bet goes on Bank. If we win that 3 bet we have satisfied our 2 bet objective so that progression goes back to 1, on Bank. If we win that 1 bet we would switch again. If we lose the 1 bet the 3 goes straight down. You may want to color code your two progs on your first couple of practice shoes.
Cash mgt. : Don’t go passed the 34 in the first 19 plays. At, and including play 20, play the whole prog. Should you lose the whole prog, start over at 1vs 1. This way the AOW tends to break even when it loses a prog. The only way we can lose is to lose multiple progs in the same shoe. This is rare about 1 shoe in 12.
Overall stop loss: However rare, since it is possible to lose multiple progs in the same shoe, do not make a bet that could take you beyond -100. This makes your worst case scenario somewhere around -80. Not bad, since your avg winning shoe is about +120.
Minimum bankroll required: 100 units min.
Note: The stronger your starting bankroll position is, the better your odds of success. We seldom lose a session after winning our first shoe.
Practice: It is imperative to practice beforehand at the stakes you intend to play. We get into some high bets that could be just about anything. You must automatically know the correct number of chips to bet and on which side to bet them.
Playing $5 chips on a $10 table : For low bankroll concerns and perhaps for your first casino game of the day (until you get your Baccarat brain in gear) consider playing $5 units on a $10 min. table. Since 1 bets are very rare simply treat 1 bets the same as a no bet. Once you have reached $2000, you can elect to advance to $10 units, but not before then.
Max Unit: I would think twice about going higher than $25 units. You now have the best Baccarat system of all time. The LAST thing you want to do is get ejected.
Tip: Should you find yourself at a consistently choppy table, it is a good idea to drop the every other bet rule and always go for 2 consecutive wins. This makes the system extremely strong in chop but at the expense of streak strength.
Sample games: The two sample games below are recent Las Vegas games. The same two sample games are shown for both progs for comparison purposes.
Sample games: AOW
Sample game #1
http://beatthecasino.com/aow/sample_game_1.jpg
Sample game #2
http://beatthecasino.com/aow/sample_game_2.jpg
Sample game #3 (single prog loss)
http://beatthecasino.com/aow/sample_game_3.jpg
Note the oddness of this shoe: Super chop to super streak. Those 3 scores in the wrong col. in col. 2 was a mistake. The phone rang.
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I am a bac player, but was playing some BJ the other night because I couldn't find any open bac tables. Boy I forgot how much more fun BJ is to play. Of course it's about winning, not being fun... but there is a big difference mentally in the two games.
I played 3rd base using the 3 bet progression and made a lot of money - barley lost 3 bets in a row. Everything was just clicking. I played another shoe (which I thought was clumped) 1st base using 2hi advantage betting and didn't do well at all. I kept getting my first card 10's like clockwork on my high bets... but so was the dealer - then I would get a low second card. I quit with a small loss.
My question is would it be better in some circumstances to simply bet dealer strategy when the cards are clumped instead of 1st base NBJ?
I've done good sometimes playing 1st base, but it's hit or miss due to the level of clumping. I am having a hard time being consistent with it.
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I've found that you can always use MDB+ to trigger no bet situations.
Was playing regular MDB last night. My casino uses preshuffled shoes, but they can be biased at times. The shoe was OTB4L. I played by the book, but once I successfully won on 4 2iars, I stopped betting that 2s will stay 2. Turns out there were 6 2iars without a 3+. Yea I would have won more but why risk it.
I did the same on another shoe. Again OTB4L. I successfully won on 4 3iars. This time instead of not betting I decided to make those MDB+ bets that 3iars will go to 4+. Again it was 6 3iars before a 4+. So I won the progression for another unit. Again I would have won an extra unit betting with 3's, but why risk it... It's prob more of a sure thing betting against it at that point.
Plus around the time that the events in your base system start changing (MDB+ kicks in)... that's when everything goes downhill. (Unless you switch. But I never did well switching)
Don't Call it a Comeback
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
Thanks guys. See you on the other side!