shuttlesmasher
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Posts
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Posts posted by shuttlesmasher
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Dragons as you mean they take 50% of your winnings if Banker wins on a 6?
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Hi!
Just had a look at dublin bet.It plays quite quickly between hands. Any suggestions of a slower one?
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Hi Mvseahog....Your inbox is currently full. I can't send you any PM.
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Still a lot to learn..
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Question is. If the chance of losing 3 consecutive bets is 1 in 8. What's the chance of losing all 3 bets in A 80 hands shoe?
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Maths question
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huh? which one?
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It just annoys the shit out of me, when i would see 3's least common, and 2 and 4's quite average, and so i'd bet the 3 becomes a 4....
but then out comes two 3's....bye bye bets....
similarly 2 's could be high then a zigzag of 5 comes out...bugger!
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Thats' not a bad analogy! taking the weather....of course it will be hot in summer, warm in autumn, cold in spring! however on the tables, things can change over a matter of hands. Discipline is the only thing that prevent you from making a 'uncertain' bet.
however, if there are percievable trends, then you would llove to have it occuring just a few more bets past when it detected.
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And i would agree with this, if you hit -8, it is harder to get back to break even. if you hit -8 obviously the shoe is not doing what you think it is doing. Moreover, if -4, it means you could have just lost 3 or 4 bets. but, if you hit -8 then really you would have lost 6-8 bets more than you have won.
hit -8, get out of there, as potentialy the shoe can squeeze another 4 to 8 units out of you. making yuo hit -12 or -16.
There is a reason why you hit -8 and that is the shoe is not what you think it should be doing. get out!!!
Sometimes if you are on a roll, no matter what you do, you can't lose! thats when you CAN squeeezx more out of the shoe.
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Nice joey, nice!!! hope we can all get to that stage one day...just a question though. when do you cease betting and watch? 2 consecutive losses?
or say you detected a mode of the shoe, would you continue through even 2 consecutive losses?
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Its very simple this 26% drop....
All can be explained by players mentality.
OK an individual may take $1000 into the casino. Start playing $25.
hits a bad run and loses $300 , betting maybe, 1,2 or 3 units
Left with $700. Do you think he will continue with $25 units?
or do they up the bets to try to win it back quickly? so perhaps bet $50,. hits -8 -10 unit. thats $400/$500 down further. $800 gone.
$200 left.....one bet....lost.
there goes $1k
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hey ellis if
I have a real hard time making a bet that could take me below+1 after I'm up +6.
then would stop win be +6???
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Well, I had plans to go to the local casino tonight and test out to see if i was patient enough to lose 8 units. Well after 15 minutes i was 6 units up, (my target was 4 units) but stayed on to play.
The shoe had started oTbl friendly then to TBl friendly then back to OTBL friendly. It was all over the shop. I was the only player that sat from the beginning of the shoe, to the end. I had finished the shoe -8. everyone else, had lost so much that they were all cleaned out. They kept on changing their money and kept on losing...it wasn't pretty shoe for sure.
however, i managed to square off on the next shoe and ended the session. +1. Get out of there!!!!
q.e.d. aim for my target 4 units and get out....
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but the thing is. if you follow a 1,2,3 progression, if you lose 3 bets in a row (which is in effect a 1 in 8 chance/ ie in a 80 hand shoe, it is possible to happen 10 times)
you are already -6. so at a stop loss of -8 you arelady out if you miss 3 bets..
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My question is money management:
Say you start with $25 units. If my aim is to just win 4 units per shoe at a risk of 8 units. I think 5 x 8 units is enough? or should i be safer and go 10x8 units?
At how many units should i actually go to $50 units? when i hit 80 units? or 160 units?
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this is what happens when i click on home
shuttlesmasher, you do not have permission to access this page. This could be due to one of several reasons:
"Your user account may not have sufficient privileges to access this page. Are you trying to edit someone else's post, access administrative features or some other privileged system?
If you are trying to post, the administrator may have disabled your account, or it may be awaiting activation."
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Hey keith i'm having problems accessing my inbox. and cant' send messages,
its says when i send
"The following errors occurred with your submission
You have reached your stored private message quota and cannot send any further messages until space has been created."
also i can't get to home screen. says error.
can you delete this once you see it ? thanks. smasher
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Moreover:
I used to remember a time, that just plain gambling actually got me consistently to +5 units...each time..
However at the time: we were betting $20 a unit and didn't think winning $100 a session was good enough, we started with $200 and tried to win $200. 10 bets.
In hindsight, it will be more difficult to win 10 bets to win $200 as opposed to just winning 5 bets.
Thus have changed my money management
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Hopefully in due course, i can upgrade my units to $500 chips and just win 4 units a session. I'm effin sick of paying the bank. paid like 80k interest last year....@%@#!$@#!$@#.
put it another way, if i can control myself, my current winnings of $750, with the goal of 4 units a session, $25 a unit, I'd have to hit a pretty disastrous few shoes to lose 30 units.....
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put it another way.
say you allocate yourself 8 units a shoe, and have 40 units bank roll.
Do you believe you can lose all 40 units, betting 1 unit 2 unit max?
you would effectively have to lose at a bare minimum of 20 hands up to 40 hands.
1/2^20 = 0.000000953674316 chance of losing all 20 hands.
You attempt to detect any notifiable bias. exploit and run!!!
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moreover, say the game is 50/50 thus if you place 10 bets, then it would be fair enough to say you will lose 5 and win 5.
if you can exploit tendencies and you place 10 bets and win 6 thats a bonus .... 1unit win.
and i WILL take ANY units of winning.
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absolutely! and really the point is totally, if you placed the right bet to win and it wins, your doing fine... if you lose than thats the problem.
as much as the chance of it for you to lose, there is the chance of you to win as welll since its 50/50.
but really, following tendencies is the closest attempt to exploit this.
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Going back to basics. If you do use a 112 progression. you only win if you win your first, bet winning your 2/3 bet is breakeven.
teh chance of losing 112 progression is 1 in 8....0.5x0.5x0.5=
4D forum
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
Hi! I don't seem to be getting an answer via email. But just checking, being a legacy NOR forum member and beinghalf way around the world.
If i sign up for the 4D seminar, Can i get an online version of it?
Btw, are legacy NOR players able to get in to 4D forum or do they need to pay for the seminar first?